Football Team vs Opponents Averages

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Zimmy07's picture

It would be interesting to see this for PF and PA (points) 

HS
jpfbucks01's picture

Zimmy here ya go

Average Points allowed by our opponents has been 30.3 and we have scored 42.2 or plus 12

Average Points scored by our opponents has been 28 and we are allowing 23.8 or minus 4 essentially

Best showing by our offense was Oregon St at +32 followed by Tulane at +22, The worst was Purdue at -4 and Minny at -2. 4 of the last 5 games we have been less than 3 pts away from our opponents average though + or -, where in the first 4 games we were only once below +18 (PSU)

Best showing by the defense was Tulane at -20 followed by Minny Rutgers and PSU at -14, -12 and -11 respectively

Worst showing was Purdue by a wide margin at +16, with Oregon State next at just +2

If you assume my +100 targets are good and should lead to at least 10 points better than "normal", then the offense has achieved that goal 5 times but only once in the last 5 games and the defense has achieved it only 4 times and only once in the last 5 games.

An argument can be made that perhaps the Defense goal should maybe be less than the offense goal in terms of points allowed as you have hard cap going down as you can go below zero, but up is infinite on the offensive side theoretically, but even making that change makes no difference in the calculations as the D has allowed from -1 to allowing more than normal in 5 of our 9 games

HS
Zimmy07's picture

Jeez, losing Bosa probably hurt a lot more than I thought it would.

HS
Hovenaut's picture

I have 2:00 p.m. head, so will need another pass or twelve for all this to full digest but appreciate the full post effort here, Jpf.

I had to run away high, so I wouldn't come home low...

HS
RK84's picture

I was told there would be no math

It doesn't matter whether you're the lion or a gazelle-when the sun comes up, you'd better be running.

HS
saltybuck61's picture

Great post. This is similar to the approach done by the YouTube channel SECFans. They do something similar but with yards per play. I love these metrics, because it can show us what is and isn't a problem.

HS