2018 Week Seven - CFB Analytics vs. AP Poll

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Hovenaut's picture

Might be wishful thinking, but I think NC State can knock off Clemdog in Death Valley. I like their defense (they get after the QB as well as the Tigers do), and if they can steal some of what Syracuse did down there last month in protecting their passer and generating an effective offense, look out.

Is the PAC 12 totally out? Oregon is still in the mix with one loss, no? I like what Cristobal is doing out there, he might be another year or two away but he at least has the Ducks playing well so far.

I'm not around that much, running exhausted and lost...

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I picked Wazzu to knock off the Ducks tomorrow.  I'll take UW over WSU later on, and Colorado likely takes two more losses: UW today and WSU on Nov 10.

Just me prognosticating. I reserve the right to change all of my predictions next week.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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Hovenaut's picture

Yeah, I should know enough to realize the PAC12 cannibalizes itself sooner than later.

"I reserve the right to change all of my predictions next week."

That is true.

I'm not around that much, running exhausted and lost...

HS
GlassCityBuckeyes's picture

What if Georgia finds away to knock off Bama in that title game? That would cause some serious chaos.

18 Saturdays till kickoff

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Then in with the Dawgs, and Bama can suck it in a NY6 bowl. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Wargor's picture

Hell, Georgia hasn't even secured its spot in the east.  Florida or Kentucky might have a say in the matter.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Agreed. And I hope it’s one of those two actually. If they were to knock off Bama, I think it puts a much larger chink in the Tide’s resume than last year’s runner up. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
MiamiBuckeye's picture

I think this is the year the Wolfpack finally makes a big move and knocks off Clemson. 

That said, I think the Wolfpack will lose one or two before season's end. 

"porque las estirpes condenadas a cien años de soledad no tenían una segunda oportunidad sobre la tierra."

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I’d love to see NC State pull off the upset. I just don’t see it happening this weekend. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
GrandTheftHarley's picture

 I’m a Cooper Survivor, and I remember the shades of Ross-Ade Stadium. But I honestly believe Buckeyes win this by three scores. Call it 17 points.

From your lips to the Inscrutable Immutable's Ears, Navy. I'm always in the Pucker Factor when the Bucks visit West Lafayette. Let's hope it's a blowup of the Boilermakers.

Go Bucks.

I am not very smart, but I recognize that I'm not very smart. --- W.W. Hayes

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

I hear ya, Harley. I think the Bucks put it all together. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
outdoorbuckeye's picture

Appreciate you taking the time to do this every week.
I think Oregon takes care of business and wins by 10

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Thanks. My pleasure. 

I think this game is huge for the CFP. I’m planning to record and to watch it later. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
outdoorbuckeye's picture

My honey do list is full. Unfortunately the Buckeye game is the only one I'll get to watch.
It definitely should make a splash in how the cfp participants are chosen. I still can't believe Oregon blew the game with Stanford though.

HS
kjonesATX's picture

Texas is interesting. Living here, they are my 2nd team I follow (and my wife's #1), I follow them pretty closely. I'm guessing the analytics didn't like their week 1 or week 2 performance, and I know they didn't love their big win over OU (they were outgained and had some turnover luck per S&P+). But watching them, their Oline is playing the best it has in a decade, their QB (if he is healthy) is dynamic and a 'gutty' leader (reminds me a lot of JT, actually), and their defense is capable of shutting down some teams. I like them to win out (@ Tech will be tough but winnable) and play OU again in the title game like you do. That will be a fun game to watch. I don't know that Texas and OU have ever played outside of their annual rivalry game, so it will have a different feel. Whoever wins that will have a really good shot at the playoff.

I'm in agreement with everything you said, regarding those matchups. I would just add a little bit of my own analysis.

- Mich @ Mich St: I think if Sparty had lost @ Penn St last week, and thus being unranked and 3-3 (versus #24 and 4-2), then the line would be double digits and I'd definitely take Sparty to cover. Because of that win, the line stayed lower and Sparty will have TTUN's full attention. I think they cover, winning by 10. 

- NC St @ Clemson: The line opened at -15.5, at least when I saw it. Took Clemson there, but as it has risen up I would stay away. I feel like the analytics don't have a great grasp on either team right now. NC St, as you mentioned, didn't play their big non-conference matchup against WV. Clemson had a QB change that can change the dynamics of their team/offense. I think Clemson wins, and wins big (3+ scores). I just wouldn't bet much on it. Just my feeling. 

-Ohio State @ Purdue: Agree that we will score 40+ on them. I actually, prior to Penn State, though we would put up 35+ even on the best defenses. Then we scored 27 in Happy Valley and 30 against Minnesota, soooo.... I've got the score something like 48-25, so I definitely think we cover. 

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Good stuff, KJones.

I think Herman has Texas moving in the right direction, but not sure I'm ready to buy in to them being back. A post season UT-OU banger would be fun though. It would also probably kill the B12 if somehow it kept the B12 out of the CFP. 

Great comments about MSU. I think Harbaugh knows he has to beat at least 2 of the big 4 (OSU, MSU, PSU and Wisconsin). He's notched one already, so if he can take out Sparty the heat should be off for at least another year.

Clemson continues to fall in the analytics, so I'm not sure what to make of them. When Lawrence entered the game against A&M, he had one great pass and then looked like crap every other series. Eventually, Dabo just stuck it out with Bryant and scraped out a 2-point win. I'm just not as enammored with Lawrence as everyone else seems to be. I really do hope the Wolfpack wins; I just don't think they have the players to do it.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
JohnnyKozmo's picture

Line's are made to induce equal or close to equal betting on both sides. The line had to be big enough for people to still take Purdue, but small enough for people to also bet Ohio State in light of the last couple of weeks and not covering. 

I think this will be one of those games people look back at the line and say "why was it only 13 points?"

You're too stupid to have a good time. -Dalton

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

What up, JK?

Yeah, I get how Vegas thinks, but they have to inject some reality into it otherwise no one would bet. IINM mistaken the initial line was -14 before it moved. Clearly the gamblers don't think the Buckeyes are as good as their record.

I'm with you, though, I think we see the Buckeyes come out on a mission.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
JohnnyKozmo's picture

What up?  I know you get it in terms of the lines.  I think a lot of people in general get too caught up in them as a predictor of future events. Shoot, anymore, if the Buckeyes don't cover, many act like it was a loss.

If that line keeps moving down because of the money on Purdue...Vegas is going to be happy late Saturday night.   

You're too stupid to have a good time. -Dalton

HS
kjonesATX's picture

Yes and no. If Vegas could produce a line that they thought would get 90% of the action on one side, but Vegas was very confident in the actual outcome of the game being on the other side, they would absolutely do it. 

Overall, the lines are set pretty close to what they think the actual outcome and score of the game will actually produce. Take our game for example: Line -13 and O/U 69. Vegas probably has the actual outcome of the game something like where 11W staff has the game.. 42-28 (you could even say Vegas maybe has it at 41-28). Once bets come in, the lines move to try and even out money. 

Does Vegas alter some lines that that they think might get too heavy action on one side if they made it exactly where they think the outcome would end up? Sure, but they don't deviate that much from their model. 

But yes, this very well could be a game where people will look back and say, "why was it only 13 points?" Vegas does get some lines terribly wrong from time-to-time. 

HS
JohnnyKozmo's picture

but Vegas was very confident in the actual outcome of the game being on the other side,

This is a topic for a whole other day. 

I'd say the over/unders are set in line with where they think the game will be, so I guess by default, the actual spreads would be derived from this. These are still "betting" lines though designed to induce bets.  They are trying to minimize their risk at the end of the day.  Like you said...that's why the lines move over time, depending on which way the early money is going. 

You're too stupid to have a good time. -Dalton

HS
kjonesATX's picture

These are still "betting" lines though designed to induce bets.

Correct. Which is why I said yes and no. But if you look at why a line is set at a certain point initially, more often than not it's because that's about where Vegas thinks the outcome of the game will be. If they didn't do that, smart bettors would jump all over them and bet hard and Vegas would lose a ton of money. If Vegas sets the line about where the game is likely to play out, then it makes it hard for even smart bettors to decide which side to bet. Thus getting money on both sides.

I get how the lines work and move. But to say that a line is initially set with the sole intention of getting even money on both sides is simply not the whole part of it. They come up with the lines initially with knowledge of how they think the game would play out, in addition to how they think the money will come in on each side. 

HS
NoVAsmitty's picture

Always a good read and information, Navy!

Why would both Clemson and OU drop a bit when on a bye?  Must be the impact of now fully 2018 data?  

Skunk weasels are threatening. 

Feeling better about Purdue tonight, but still awaiting with trepidation. 

“I intend to make Georgia howl.” General William Tecumseh Sherman

HS