2018 Week Two - CFB Analytics vs. AP Poll

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J10's picture

Navy - love these posts, and I think your game picks are dead on correct.  Two quibbles on BSU vs OSU: 1) should be 'marquee' not 'marquis'.  2) Can the Cowboys win by one with a two-point conversion? Wouldn't they either tie or win by two? I thought the conversion was mandatory in 3rd OT.

**This space to be filled with an inspirational quote from a famous Buckeye**

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Thanks, J10. You got me on both counts. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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Earle's picture

Marquis?  That's just Sade.

Axe leukemia!
#Poppystrong

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TMac's picture

TCU (-5) - they'll be dropping in the AP next week, so maybe that will even out a bit. 

ONE Not Done!

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

If the Buckeyes' defense can shut them down, TCU may end up dropping in both.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
buckguyfan1's picture

Not so fast Vegas.  Tigers by 3.

I see ttun is still getting love.  

Simplify...

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

The analytic models love the talent at TTUN.  Coaching, or the lack of it, is what ultimate kills them in the results column.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Buckeyechuck5's picture

Good write up navy. Your theory of the media latching onto a team as long as they win is what Dabo will hold onto all year......

"Life is not about how hard you can hit, it's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. THATS HOW WINNING IS DONE!!" - Rocky Ballboa

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Yeah, unfortunately. I’m hoping VaTech or someone else pulls an upset this season. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
RunEddieRun1983's picture

Wow appreciate the work you put into this, definitely a good read.

Urban Meyer left an incredible legacy. 12/4/18 Ryan Day begins his.

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Dominus's picture

I just joined this site this month and really like this analytical information along with the accompanying article. It's really good.

What caught my attention most was Clemson's rating. Despite their outstanding defensive line, the game against Texas A&M would suggest that they might be a tad over-rated and that the Buckeyes might be a tad under-rated. I was also surprised, as the article notes, that our rivals were rated above Notre Dame especially after they lost the head-to-head in South Bend.

There's some really good articles and writers on this site as I am quickly discovering.

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RunEddieRun1983's picture

Welcome to 11w! You get all that and the comradery of all the great folks here on the site. Enjoy!

Urban Meyer left an incredible legacy. 12/4/18 Ryan Day begins his.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I think what hurt Clemson was the number of 3-and-outs A&M forced in the second half. In terms of efficiency, a key factor in both S&P+ and FEI, that hurts their offenseice analytics a lot. Failure to convert is a key indicator in performance. 

The other piece that hurt Clemson was that A&M had a low preseason analytic rating based on past performance. As A&M moves up in the analytics, Clemson will get a concomitant bump in the ratings for having beaten a better team. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
J10's picture

+1 for use of concomitant.

**This space to be filled with an inspirational quote from a famous Buckeye**

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

One of my favorite, underutilized words. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Thanks, RER83. Love it when folks read em. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Hovenaut's picture

Tiger showdown...

Would love to see LSU pull this off, but agree that Jordan-Hare is probably too much to overcome for Joe B and the Bayou Bunch.

It goes against the recency bias I should have for Texas (even though I have no empathy for USC), but also thinking Herman pulls this one out...and PAC12 woes continue (for those not named Herm).

Appreciate the reads as usual, NB.

I'm not around that much, running exhausted and lost...

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Appreciate the comments as always, Hove. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Earle's picture

NB, do you have a lean toward one analytic vs. the other?  The Auburn/LSU divergence has me interested.

Interested to see how Joey B does against a top team (not buying Miami) in a hostile environment.  Geaux Jeax!

Axe leukemia!
#Poppystrong

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

I think I understand S&P+ a little better, and I like the fact it gives an actual point value for performance comparison.  Connelly really focuses on statistical performance vice W-L, and he tends to be “conference neutral”. My experience with Fremeau is that he puts a little more emphasis on the end result, and he generally overemphasizes Power Five teams and the PAC 12 specifically.

So for rankings, I like the combined F/+, but for pregame comparison of opponents, I favor S&P+. Does that make sense?

That being said, this early in the season, I think it’s really hard to tell.  How does an analytical model account for a guy like Burrow when you’re trying to account for “returning offensive performance”?

The real difference for me in the Tiger Showdown is coaching. I’m not a huge Malzahn fan, but I believe he’s a better in game coach than Orgeron. That and the Home environment give Auburn the edge. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
kjonesATX's picture

There really has been a lot more 'movement' early in the season for S&P+ this year, and Connelly mentioned he tweaked the formula to react better/more early on. We'll see how it works out, but I like it so far. 

My 3 team parlay lock last week paid (OhSt -35.5, Bama -37, Georgia -10). I ended up wagering $33.51 to win $200 (collect $233.51). So that was good. All told, wagered $175 and collected $341 last week (so up $166). Already wagered $250 this week, so we'll see!

I think we'll find out a lot about LSU this week. The game against Miami was good for their season outlook, but this week will tell us more. I have LSU +10 in a lot of places, and even a few teasers at +16. While I think Auburn might win it at home, I just thought 10 was too many points in what should prove to be a low scoring game (O/U is 45). Something like 20/24-14/17 either way wouldn't surprise me. Basically similar to the Wash v Auburn game from week 1. I know I'll be rooting for the LSU version of the Tigers and Joe Burrow.

We should also learn a bit about Boise and OkSt. I'm going with the analytics and taking Boise in this one, at least with the points (I got them at +3.5 early on - also at +9.5 in some teasers). I think I have the Over in more spots (65) than I do Boise on the spread. 

The showdown in Arlington has been all Buckeys for me. I never saw it posted at -12.5, so I have them -13 and -13.5 in most spots, other than a few teasers at -3 or -7. I think that's easy money. 45-21 sounds about right (I think S&P+ had it 39-20). Also taking the Over in most places (60). 

USC @ Texas is one I have mostly stayed away from. This game could go all kinds of ways (blow out either way, or close win either way). I've taken Texas -3 in a couple of places, and the Under in a few (48). Something like the LSU v Auburn score sounds right.

The early 3 team parlay I got on I have $20 on (pays $122.31 to collect $142.31) is Ohio State -13, Wash -6, and Bama -20. Another one I like is a $20 teaser with 7 teams and getting 6 points on the lines: FSU +3.5, LSU +16, Boise +9.5, Wisc -17, Bama -14, Ohio St -7, and Wash 0. It pays $200 to collect $220. FSU makes me nervous, but we'll see! 

Other lines I like a lot: Oklahoma -18; Mich -35.5, Georgia -33.5 (a little nervous about the Georgia line if Florence brings torrential rains and it turns into a slush field). 

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Good stuff, KJonesATX! Congrats on the wins. 

Personally, I wouldn’t put any money on  the USC-UT game. As you said, there’s really no telling which way it will go. 

The same goes for anything being played in the wake of Florence. That’s just going to create all kinds of whackiness, that isn’t worth betting on. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
kjonesATX's picture

I really think, as the S&P+ and F/+ are showing, that Bama/OhioSt/Georgia are in a slight tier of their own at the top. The next tier (Oklahoma down to about Notre Dame/Michigan) has solid teams. They are all fairly balanced (offense/defense) thus far, with Michigan, Notre Dame, and Washington's offense being the units struggling the most. Even OU's defense is top 25 thus far (small sample size and all). Should be interesting. 

My early playoff prediction is still the same as your four. Georgia/Bama loser would be the wild card. I really think the SEC could get two in if the Pac12 and Big 12 had 2-loss champs (like BIG and Pac 12 last year).

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Agree.  ND is the other wild card.  Their schedule is shaping up to give them a shot at 12-0, with possible wins over a possible Pac12 divisional or conference champ (Stanford), a possible ACC divisional or conference champ (Va Tech), plus UM and USC.  They have 10 Power Five teams plus Ball State and Navy.  Hopefully the Irish stub their toe along the way, but if not, they'll make it hard on the selection committee if there are any 2-loss CCs.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
BloomingtonBuckeye's picture

This is always one of my favorite reads of the week, Navy. Thanks for all the hard work and analysis you put into it!

Your arguments are very compelling - and you week-over-week predictions are typically dead on! Will you consider adding a running W-L on your AP25 predictions?

In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten, then he who continues the attack wins. - Ulysses S. Grant

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Are you thinking a table? I could def put together an easy Excel for that and post it as a gif. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
BloomingtonBuckeye's picture

Cool! I mean, Excel-ent

Thanks

In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten, then he who continues the attack wins. - Ulysses S. Grant

HS