Could We Lose to PSU and Still Make the Playoff?

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tbdbitlbuck's picture

It’s weird seeing Dinich say this because I really don’t think we would

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lljjgg's picture

I agree. The thing people often forget about the year that Alabama got in without a conference championship was that they had one less loss than OSU (Alabama had 1, OSU had 2), and the year OSU got in over PSU as a non-conference champ they had one less loss (OSU with 1 loss, PSU with 2). So I legitimately do not believe the 1-loss non-champ is getting in over the 1-loss conference champ. As Dinich herself has said, the idea of a non-conference champ getting in is more of the exception rather than the rule. The 3rd of the 3 (out of 20) teams that got in was an undefeated ND team last year.

If it comes down to a 1-loss conference champ Oregon vs. 1-loss non champ OSU, even as a tremendous homer I don't think it's happening. Our only hope would be if they were having to decide between 1-loss Oklahoma vs OSU (i.e. assuming the Pac 12 champ has 2 losses), just because Oklahoma has looked so bad.

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Brutus's picture

I don't disagree with any of this, but Dinich's premise is that the decision will be OSU over a one-loss Oregon because Ohio State's loss will be better.  I also think the fact that OSU plays in a much stronger conference and would have a better SOS would factor in.  However, the PAC 12 might openly revolt if its one-loss champ (against a decent Auburn) gets left out again in favor of a team that didn't even win its division. I think Oregon would get the nod because of optics alone.

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OSUBias's picture

If this were to happen it would 100% be because of the eye test and not rationalized by any comparison of one loss to one loss teams. I think that is such a slippery slope they won’t do it, but I do think if their job is to put the 4 best teams in that we should make it unless we lose 2 straight.

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Sunny Buck's picture

We have to win out. Bama is lurking even without a conference championship. The Finebaum show and it's expert opinion writers are lobbying hard right now for Bama over a 1 loss Oregon or Utah team with a Pac 12 championship trophy. And yes, the Pac 12 would revolt and rightly should. They are saying Bama winning at Auburn without Tua would show how great they really are.

As a 1 loss B1G champ we would have a better chance than losing to PSU. But, none of us want that scenario. I would rather (painfully) lose to PSU than lose to you know who. Forget all that, just win out Buckeyes.

I'm not trying to win a popularity contest. I'm trying to win football games-- Woody Hayes

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buckinmich's picture

Technically, Ohio State would still be a division winner.  They would lose the tie breaker on a head-to-head match-up, which would send Penn State to the championship game.

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BPOSU's picture

Who knows if it would have been ranked different if it were for an actual playoff spot, but last year the committee ranked a 2 loss non conference champion Georgia 5 and 1 loss conference champion OSU 6 in the final ranking.

Not sure if that just proves SEC bias, or that a team could get in with equal/more losses than a conference champ. 

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Hoody Wayes's picture
COULD WE LOSE TO PSU AND STILL MAKE THE PLAYOFF?

TBDSNITL: The best damn screen name in the land!

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I'm Ron Burgundy's picture

I think what people forget about Dinich is that it is not that she hates OSU, she just says dumb stuff all the time.  This falls into that category.  OSU's not getting in if they lose to PSU. Not without a ton of a help anyway.

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cajunbuckeye's picture

Lose to Penn State and the Buckeyes are out. Lose to the mitten whores and they probably get in after winning the B1G championship

An angry fan...rooting for an angry team...led by angry coaches

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LCT's picture

We talkin' Purdue 2018 or Penn St 2016? That matters.

Lifetime vs. UM: L 9-1, C 8-0, T 5-0
Ohio State University President Jim Tressel

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Yes it does.  No one is surviving a 30-point blowout loss.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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keith7456's picture

I think we would get in IF Wisconsin wins the west and then beats Penn State in the champ game. We would also need LSU to beat Georgia. This happens and you would probably get

1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Oregon/Utah
4. Ohio State

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Brutus's picture

I actually think we would be better off with PSU winning the B10 championship and them putting two B10 teams in the playoff, a la 2017. But again, better to just beat PSU and leave no doubt.

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keith7456's picture

I personally feel like we are out if we lose this game. This we is definitely our 1st playoff game in my opinion.

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tkrussell's picture

I think it's possible, but we'd need help. The easiest path would be for Wisconsin to win out and win the Big 10 championship game vs Penn State, as I believe we'd easily get in over the 2 loss Wisconsin team we blew out as the Big Ten representative. If Penn State or Minnesota win the Big Ten championship then at the very least we'd need LSU to beat Georgia ensuring Georgia gets eliminated (Bama losing to Auburn wouldn't hurt either). If 2 SEC teams get in then there won't be 2 big 10 representatives. Penn State would obviously be in, and although our chances are much better against a 1 loss Big Ten champion Minnesota team, I will never feel confident again leaving our fate up to the committee. Assuming nothing unexpected happens we'd have a 1 loss Ohio State vs. 1 loss Alabama, 1 loss Pac 12 champion Oregon/Utah, and 1 loss Big 12 champion Oklahoma/Baylor all vying for the final playoff spot. I think we'd have an argument, but the committee has burned us way too many times to be sure. One completely unrealistic scenario and only real chaos opportunity would be if Clemson lost in the ACC championship, then all bets are off and I think we'd certainly get in with a loss in any of our remaining 3 games.

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Hoody Wayes's picture

Let us help ourselves.

TBDSNITL: The best damn screen name in the land!

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Byaaaahhh's picture

It could happen but I'm too cynical to think it would. I think most of us here are too. 

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mittenst8buck's picture

Would be a long shot. Michigan is really the only loss we can afford.

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Hateblue's picture

We can never afford a loss to them. 

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mittenst8buck's picture

Haha, after I posted that I was waiting for someone to say that. This is true.

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rkylet83's picture

Outside chance.  We’d have to beat Michigan 2015 style...and if we can’t put it on Penn State, it’ll be tough to see us doing it the following week against a Michigan team that has nothing else to play for except winning that game.  In short, this game is everything for the season.  

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85ydsofcrushedhope's picture

We’ll never know unless the first string team reports a self violation, then there’s a chance we will. 

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westcampus's picture

The odds of everyone on the team being ineligible are probably higher than actually losing the game. 

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actionstanleyjackson's picture

No. Osu beats PSU they can afford to lose to Michigan 

Stay golden, Ponyboy.

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Bocabuck's picture

Lose to PSU and we're out! M*chigan loss and only one we could get by with and "if" we win the B10 CG? All other bets fall into the commitee's debate!

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OSUBias's picture

If I take a step back, if we lose this game with everything riding on this game, don’t win our division and don’t play in the conf champ...I think I’m fine being left out. Cuz if we lose this game we aren’t winning two games against the top 4. 

Important to note when demanding a playoff expansion: this week in and week out elimination is what makes cfb great. 

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Mantis's picture

The logic of "if we lose this game we can't win the top 4" is obviously very flawed.  If one team is playing their best game and one team is playing their worst, especially with rainy condition expected, it doesn't mean the team that lost can't still win the championship.  Look at what we did in 2014.  VT was obviously nowhere near as good as this Penn State team and yet we still beat the top 4, somewhat comfortably as well. 

Georgia lost to a much worse team this year in SC.  So we should rule them out of winning against the top 4 as well?

It's just silly. 

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OSUBias's picture

Losing the one game with everything riding on it is the differentiator for me. Could this team then win out? Sure. Do I think it’s likely? I do not. Having an off game against a relatively bad opponent in the middle of the season happens all the time; these are teenagers and young men. My point is if your team can’t get up and perform at its best when it matters most, you shouldn’t suddenly expect that to change when gifted a playoff birth. In 2014 it was a week 2 loss and they weren’t fully cooking until the end of the year (though MSU was the turning point), and with everything in the balance they absolutely pasted Wisconsin. This is our “everything is in the balance” game. I don’t think it’s that silly at all. Plus our resume would be not that great. Best wins would be over 10-15 ranked Michigan, Wisconsin, and Cinci (if they win out), while dropping the one game against the best team we’d played.

that being said, I see no reason other than the PlayStation glitch game that we won’t steamroll PSU. 

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buckeyenut74's picture

Nope. Lose one of the next three and it’s season over as far as a title is concerned.  

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DaiTheFlu's picture

I strongly be that we'd make the playoff if the lone loss in the three games is to Michigan. A one loss B1G champ Ohio State isnt getting left out unless they lose by 30 to a team like Purdue.

We can't stop here; this is bat country...

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You can't spell chump without UM's picture

No, because OSU isn't in the SEC, so it would only be a good loss, not a quality one.

Tom Brady lost to John Cooper. Never forget.

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DaiTheFlu's picture

I actually don't believe this, especially if UGA beats LSU, which would all but guarantee two SEC teams. On the other side of the coin, if we beat PSU but lose to TTUN, it's a virtual lock that we'd be in the playoff, provided that we win the B1GCG. I don't even want to consider that possibility, but it would actually he hilarious that even when Michigan "beats" is, we still win and make the playoff.

We can't stop here; this is bat country...

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EvanstonBuckeye's picture

I actually think, in a twisted way, that we might still get in with UGA beating LSU as our argument would be the same as LSU's: we've proven we're good enough to be in there all year.

That said, I also think we need to win out to get in for the simple reason that losing this late in the season just doesn't give you as much time to bounce back.

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Bucktown 5.7x28's picture

I think, unfortunately and unjustly, OSU is held to the same standard that Clemson is held to. Even though OSU’s schedule is superior to the weak ass ACC. If we lose once, we may be done. The outside hope is a loss to Missagain. That may be the only allowable loss by the committee. Not by Buckeye Nation though. Clemson also needs to win out. I don’t think I could even put them in if they went undefeated. The ACC is historically bad at football. 

You can judge a civilization or lack thereof, by the way mankind treats the wildlife Ghandi

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huffdaddy's picture

If we lose to PSU at home, I don’t think we are beating Michigan on the road.

(spoiler alert: we aren’t losing to PSU at home).

"I don't think you necessarily have to get a trophy to be a winner." - Nick Saban 1/2/15.

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lljjgg's picture

(spoiler alert: we aren’t losing to PSU at home).

Anyone else get the chills when people say things like this so definitively?  Haha. It's college football, upsets happen every week.

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Brandon26841's picture

Seriously. I live in Columbia, SC and I've had the misfortune of having to watch a few South Carolina games this year. They are terrible. And yet they beat #4 Georgia on the road with their 3rd string QB...

Anything can happen. 

Anyway, to stay on topic... no. I don't see Ohio State making the playoffs if they lose on Saturday. This is essentially a playoff elimination game for both teams IMO. 

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Sunny Buck's picture

^^^ This ^^^

I'm not trying to win a popularity contest. I'm trying to win football games-- Woody Hayes

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BeatMeechigun's picture

Why are people asking these questions??

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ashtabulassassin's picture

Really, its a two horse race for the CFP right now... Us and Minnesota, afterall, according to Buckshots, they are undefeated still.

Buckshots... in case you have amnesia.

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cajunbuckeye's picture

Put the bong down...

An angry fan...rooting for an angry team...led by angry coaches

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FROMTHE18's picture

Nope. OSU would drop to #7 or 8 and PSU would vault OSU due to opportunity to play for B1G title. OSU loses, they are out. CFP committee is trying hard to set SEC up for 2 teams. OSU loss makes that a guarantee. SEC Champ, Bama, Clemson, then PSU/Pac12 Champ debate. 

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stxbuck's picture

I would say probably no, given that losing to PSU would knock us out of the B10 title game, barring a PSU loss the last week of the season.

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NHBuckeye's picture

Thankfully we won’t have to worry about this after Saturday.   ;)

Take care of business. 

Fields of Dreams

 

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Dstacify's picture

No. It being at home would be costly if we were to lose to them. Plus losing games later in the season cripples your playoff chances a lot more (we found that out the hard way against Sparty in 2015). If we lose to PSU we're not even making the B1G Championship Game unless they lose the following week and we beat TTUN (which would 100% be used against us by the Committee).

11 Strong.

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Ortonhallalumni's picture

Well if we cant beat penn state at home are we really going to go beat other teams that ate better than penn state on a neutral field...we have to win Saturday to win the Big Ten Title again and gain closer to michigan in titles and then beat them and get that record closer.

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DentonBuck's picture

If we don’t beat PSU and meatchicken, we don’t deserve to be in in my opinion. We are so obviously better than them, and we need to handle them like LSU handled their ranked teams. There’s no excuses to slip up this year. I think the team itself views it this way, too. They’re tired of slipping up and coming up short.

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RBurgundy4's picture

Nope. An early loss is dismissed/forgiven way more easily than a Nov loss, generally speaking. A Nov loss requires outside help. We are now in the playoff.

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LABuckeye's picture

I’m the scarediest scared person ever going into big games, and even I feel confident about Penn State. Maybe that should give me pause. If we somehow lost and aren’t in the B1G championship, and it came down to us against a 1 loss Oregon, Oregon absolutely should go as a conference champ. It doesn’t matter if I think we are better, conference champs should have a priority when loss numbers are the same. If that doesn’t happen, the system should end.

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LABuckeye's picture

As a kind of side note, in all the years I’ve watched Oregon (and this includes me going to the Rose Bowl game we played against them under Tressel, and the championship game), this is the best Oregon team I’ve seen. I decided that watching the Auburn game and I’ve watched them several times since.

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BuckeyeNut2012's picture

Yes, but only in the case that Penn State loses to Rutgers next week which will never happen. If we miss the B1G championship, we won't make it.

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gobucks1966's picture

I will stand by what I have said since the first playoff series. If you can't win your conference your not going to get another chance to win a NC. [example] Bama lost to LSU if Bama gets another chance and beats LSU who is the best of the two? The reason for the playoff is to get a true winner. If your going to let a second place finisher in the playoffs you might as well go back to the AP poll. In reality the playoff starts the 1st game of the season to weed out teams. They talk about expanding the play off maybe it should be just 1 vs 2 ? Who would you put in this year if it was 6 or 8 teams? Some of them by seasons end might have 2 loses even if they win their conference. Bottom line no 2 loss team should be in a playoff for the NC and once they expand and they will $$$$ a 2 loss team will win it one year but it will be a fluke some how.

Denny

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tcm1968's picture

Yes. One easy scenario is Imagine Utah wins out. Every TV exec in the business would be pushing to leave them out.. CLEARLY not fair to them but if you are a TCU, Baylor or UTAH you got to run the table or get some help.. No one wants to watch LSU vs Utah.. 

Go Bucks!

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gobucks1966's picture

I get your point but I would rather watch that to see how they do than watch Bama play LSU again? To me that match was decided and on their field and now their qb is out for the year. I think a lot of people would like that than watch Saban and the 25 cent band. Then a lot of folks don't want us in either.

Denny

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GINNandjuice's picture

Just yuck

All Glory is Fleeting

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Woodylegend's picture

We ain't losing so it dont matter.

"The minute I think I'm getting mellow, I'm retiring. Whoever heard of a mellow winner."

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Mantis's picture

Should we?  Yes.

Will we? No.  We aren't in the SEC.  I know some people on here get salty when you point things like that out, but it is unequivocally true.  

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Texbuckbear's picture

"Well, according to (the oft maligned) Heather Dinich, yes:

5. If Ohio State loses Saturday..."

This is just an attempted Dinich hex on The Buckeyes.

What SEC Ding Dong Dinich was really hoping.

"5. ...Ohio State loses Saturday..."

I hope she's packed-up and sent to the Devil's Island of TV, someday.  They're waiting for her.

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kmp10's picture

Who gives a single rat fuck what Heather Dinich says/thinks/writes? 

When I die, sprinkle my ashes over the 70's 

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RunEddieRun1983's picture

Could we? Sure, maybe, but I'd rather just beat the shit out of them, Michigan, and whomever we see in Indy ad get there the old fashioned way, storming the fucking gates.

Urban Meyer left an incredible legacy. 12/4/18 Ryan Day begins his.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

The real question is, if that happens, how many of us are going to be alive to see it.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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wigmon's picture

Could?  Yes.  Likely?  No.  It would be interesting to see if it came down to a 1 loss OSU versus 1 loss PAC12 champ.  Obviously the conference championship means something, but does it overcome the relative strengths of the regular season for both teams?  Oregon holds exactly 1 top 25 win (7-4 USC).  Utah has none.  So just winning the game wouldn't elevate their strength of record over ours.  I think our record is far ahead of Utahs and the conference championship wouldn't elevate them enough.  Oregon at least scheduled a good opponent and should have won the game, but our record would still be a bit better.  Picking us over Oregon might hinge on how UC finishes the season and/or what our last impression looks like against UM.  Then of course you throw Oklahoma into the mix and it would create some very interesting discussions.

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

If Ohio State beats Penn State, loses to Michigan, then wins the B1G, they are a LOCK for the playoffs.

2x account suspension survivor 

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