Alabama Playoff Predictor- 43%???

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pressquarters's picture

I have said for the last 3 weeks, unless Bama has 2+ losses, they're in. The love affair with the SEC runs deep, and they'll beat out any other 1-loss team.

Remember, they only reason SEC teams have any losses is because they have to play each other.

And the Bama love will continue, unless Bama gets in this year and lays a clunker.

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IslandBumBuckeye's picture

There are virtually zero conceivable scenarios where Bama gets in without unfathomable chaos.

Clemson, LSU/GA winner, OSU/B1G Champ, OU and/or OR as 1-loss conference champs all get the nod over Bama.

 

"It's always scotch-thirty on my island."

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73buckeye's picture

The 4 teams are going to be LSU, OSU or PSU, Clemson, Alabama or Georgia.  LSU is getting in even if they lose to Georgia in the Sec championship. If that happens, Georgia gets in, assuming they beat TAMU and Georgia Tech. Big Ten is going to be OSU or PSU. If Georgia loses to LSU and Bama beats Auburn, Bama will be put in over all other 1 loss teams. The only way any of them pass Alabama is if Auburn beats them. We have seen Alabama get a pass for crappy schedules for 5 years. What makes anyone think that will change now? The media will have a love affair with an "underdog Alabama fighting on with a 2nd string quarterback, even though they lost the Heisman Trophy winner with the best college coach of all time". They will wheel Tua out to the sidelines on a gurney if the have to to keep him in the story.

Chaos is the following: OSU loses to PSU (both teams have one loss. Georgia beats LSU, Alabama beats Auburn, three "championship quality SEC teams" have one loss. How about 3 one loss sec teams in the finals with Clemson. Don't laugh, stupider things have happened. 

ernie

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AtlBuc's picture

Alabama got a pass?  They won the SEC 4 of the 5 years of the playoffs.  Not sure I call that a pass, sounds like they deserved to be in.

As far as 2017, the one year they didn't win the CCG, the next best team was a 2 loss OSU.  So did we deserve a pass that year over a team that looked better than us?

I understand your frustration with the Bama Love Fest in the media, but look at the facts.  I don't think they are going to get a pass this year.

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Bama laid a huge clunker last year. How many will it take before they get dinged for it. 

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Kernfan's picture

LSU making it as a 1 loss non champion would be arguable, but not likely if they were competing against one or two 1 loss conference champions.  Bama making it would be ridiculous.

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Port Richey Buckeye's picture

Oregon or Utah will get fourth spot.

Fuck eSECpn and fuck Mythigan.

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NHBuckeye's picture

Unless Georgia beats LSU, which could happen.  Then we would probably see:

1 - OSU 

2 - Clemson

3 - Georgia

4 - LSU

Fields of Dreams

 

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Ohio_Against_The_World's picture

DREAM SCENERIO:

We put a stomping on LSU, Burrow has a god game, but losses 49-21. 
 

Georgia beats Clemson 3-0. Both teams look like shit. 
 

We play UGA in the championship and Fields puts up 300 through the air and another 100 on the ground. UGA looks like whisky did and doesn’t cross midfield with their pathetic offense.  Bucks win 35-0. We finish stomping 2 SEC, crush the souls of all the UGA fans who say Fromm is better than fields, and the SEC lovers get to hear for the next 9 months how the BIG10 waxed their darlings. 

When in doubt... Muck Fichigan

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BuckeyeGoneNuts's picture

Boy, that is a dream scenario, it really couldn't play out much better than that... ever.

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KBonay's picture

I'd say, let them play out and see what happens.  The 'what-ifs' will only drive you crazy

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Spartan13's picture

1. I imagine this, like basically every statistic model, doesnt account for injuries. 

2. The path stays the same as before the Tua injury, if Bama can demolish Auburn it would be hard to put Oregon who lost to Auburn in the playoff. 

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Oregon would still have a better resume than Alabama. The Tide would have one quality win (Auburn) and what would be considered a quality loss (even though Bama was a 7 point favorite in the LSU game). 

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Spartan13's picture

I am not arguing for Bama at all and I don't think they should be in in this scenario. 

They dont put teams in because of resume. Plus Oregon has a pretty weak resume with a loss to Auburn(who Bama would beat) and 2 ranked wins. Not sure how 1 more ranked win would shut down the conversation and Oregon is in for sure. 

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

USC is ranked this week, which gives Oregon a quality win. Oregon can get another quality win vs Utah in the Pac12 CG. That would give Oregon 2 quality wins as opposed to one quality win for Alabama. 
They actually do put teams in the CFP because of resume. That is definitely a tool used to separate all of the one- loss teams. 

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Spartan13's picture

Yes that’s why I said Oregon has two quality wins and one more than Bama. 2017 they ignored resumes and put Bama in because of eye test. You are a silly boy if you think Bama with Tua wouldn’t have been in over Oregon.

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ISURVIVEDCOOPER's picture

The committee will have to decide between a 1-loss nonconference champ in Alabama if they beat Auburn or Oregon, who we are assuming run the rest of their table including conference championship. I have a hard time thinking that the committee is going to alienate an entire geographic region of the US for a Bama program who will likely be in the conversation again next year, so go with the conference champ since Oregon scheduled Auburn early in the season and by all eye tests should have won that game anyway (like we did against VT but lost).

By historical pattern then, I see:

OSU, LSU, CLEM, ORE (if they win out)

"I don't apologize for anything.  When I make a mistake, I take the blame and go on from there." - Woody Hayes

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BrewstersMillions's picture

Because if LSU Clemson and OSU hold serve Bama gets in. They are still one of the four best teams in the nation. I get that we don't like them and like LSU they have their warts but they should get in if they win out.

Proudly dispensing unbridled arrogance since 1983.

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Spartan13's picture

Thats just silly. Point to the game that proves Bama is one of the 4 best. LSU is the presumed #1, the barely beat Auburn at home and Auburn should have lost to Oregon on a neutral field. There is no telling if Oregon could beat LSU on a neutral field. 

Auburn had 15 penalties on the road against LSU and lost by 3. 

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BrewstersMillions's picture

They've blown out everyone they've beaten just like Ohio State has. OSUs best win right now has a gigantic Illinois shaped wart on it.

No one plays anyone ever. That's always the argument, it's one OSU is facing despite it being not true.

That receiving core alone is worth the price of a playoff ticket. If we want to keep falling back to the endless who's beaten who debate why even play the games? Just look at the rankings.

Proudly dispensing unbridled arrogance since 1983.

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Hanawi_'s picture

You realize Illinois has a better record than all of Bama's wins except one, right?

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Alabama has zero quality wins. They are a talented team, for sure, but they lost at home in a game where they were 7 point favorites. Alabama also lost it’s starting QB to a season-ending injury so they can no longer be considered as a take in the CFP. Even if Alabama beats Auburn, at that point Auburn is a 4 loss team ( not exactly a ringing endorsement as a “quality win”). 

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BrewstersMillions's picture

You also described 2014 Ohio State.

Good teams beat bad teams. It happens.

Proudly dispensing unbridled arrogance since 1983.

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Except that 2014 Ohio State had victories over the 7th and 11th ranked teams in the BCS standings and won its conference CG. Alabama can't come close to matching that now.

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BrewstersMillions's picture

I suspect you meant playoffs?

And we keep falling back to this who have they played argument. That doesn't mean they aren't good or better than Oregon or Oklahoma because they are. It's eye test. They've crushed everyone other than the buzz saw LSUs offense has been. I'm not interested in who teams have played. That's a lazy fall back. I'm interested in how they are playing the teams they play and to me Bama is beating people mercilessly. It's also a self fulfilling prophecy. They beat a ranked at the time TAMU team they'll beat a ranked at the time Auburn team. And both TAMU and Auburn will be indicted for not being that good because people need to diminish Alabama.

I don't like them. The playoff is better with them than without them.

Proudly dispensing unbridled arrogance since 1983.

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Not the playoffs. 

Ohio State beat #7 Michigan State on November 8, 2014  49-37

Ohio State beat #11 Wisconsin on December 6, 2014  59-0

If you actually want to include the playoffs:

Ohio State beat #1 Alabama on January 1, 2015  42-35

Ohio State beat #2 Oregon on January 12, 2015  42-20

Alabama has almost always had a weak schedule. They haven't played Georgia in the regular season since 2008 or Florida since 2014 in the regular season (the two best teams in the SEC East). In 2017 Bama lost by double digits to Auburn (a team that lost in its bowl game to a Group of 5 team).

I can see that you are a true Alabama fan. Enjoy another blowout victory by your team as they play another perceived FCS powerhouse Western Carolina (3-8) on chicken-s**t Saturday. 

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BrewstersMillions's picture

Poorly worded question on my part, my 'I assume you meant playoffs' was in response to you saying OSU beat top teams in the BCS. I'm not sure what you meant by BCS.

I can see that you are a true Alabama fan. Enjoy another blowout victory by your team as they play another perceived FCS powerhouse Western Carolina (3-8) on chicken-s**t Saturday. 

Not sure why you have to take it here. I am an Ohio State fan. Class of 05 and my avatar is a picture of the best player in Ohio State history. I hate to have to read my fan resume' to you but here we are. I can recognize a team is good regardless of who they have played. Do you know what Ohio State showed us when they smashed crap teams? That they are good. 

Proudly dispensing unbridled arrogance since 1983.

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

My bad on the wording. Meant to type in CFP. Alabama may have top recruits and a good team but if that is all you go by then every year the playoffs should include Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Clemson, and whichever other team happens to have a great year (LSU, PSU, etc.). There comes a time when Alabama has to start being held accountable for its weak schedule. They constantly get the benefit of the doubt because of recruiting rankings and past performance. Their resume pales in comparison to a multitude of teams that get overlooked so that a one-loss, non-division winning Alabama can be gifted a place in the playoffs. And before you probably go there, I am a proponent of having to win your conference championship to make the CFP.

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BrewstersMillions's picture

I think it should matter, but this is the problem with four teams. Because by saying 4 teams and making a conference title a pre req you are in fact narrowing your field down to the teams you mentioned for the most part. Can South Carolina or Iowa sneak up and win their division and conference and only have 1 loss to show for it? Possibly. Is it more likely your traditional powerhouses do that? Very much so. It is entirely possible that two of the best four teams in the nation reside in the same conference. 

Proudly dispensing unbridled arrogance since 1983.

HS
BuckeyeGoneNuts's picture

So essentially you're saying that Alabama just needs to pass the "eye test" and doesn't have to demonstrate anything on the field.... why play games at all then? 

We all know they are an extremely talented team with 4 and 5 star guys all over the field.  But if that's the criteria, why have a season, why not just take the teams with the top talent and put them in a playoff?  Because teams with lower talent level can win games against teams with better talent.  Alabama destroys the weak opposition all year, and we know they have talent.... but they haven't actually had to demonstrate anything on the field yet.  This is a year where it just so happens there are other teams that are pretty good that have demonstrated more on the field and will get in ahead of them.

Now lets pretend that Tua had not gotten hurt.   Are there 4 teams in the country that would have been betting favorites in Las Vegas against Alabama on a neutral field?  Not likely.   LSU, maybe Clemson, OSU.... but I don't think anyone else would have been a betting favority against them.  That still doesn't mean they should automatically be "in". 

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BrewstersMillions's picture

No, the eye test IS demonstrating on the field. I'm saying that who it is done against is overblown. Alabama can be good even if they beat bad teams. There is this notion that you aren't one of the 4 best teams if you don't go through some fantasy murderers row of a schedule. OSU was punished for it multiple times, now people are doing the exact same thing to Bama and they are doing it because they don't like Bama, the SEC, or ESPN.

But if that's the criteria, why have a season, why not just take the teams with the top talent and put them in a playoff? 

I don't disagree. There are 3 elite programs in the country-Ohio State, Alabama, Clemson. They get the benefit of the doubt always because of the talent they always have. There is a lump of slightly lesser teams-Oklahoma, LSU, Georgia, Penn State, Wisconsin, Florida, etc that are in varying degrees near but not at that top tier and then the rest are either cannon fodder or pretenders. 

Tua's injury is devastating. So was JT's. Teams win titles, not QBs. While they may not be as threatening as OSU or Clemson without their biggest gun available, they still march out the best WR core in the country and they still have the best coach in the nation. They are going to be punished for losing to number one when almost exactly 365 days ago most of us were crying foul because OSU had only lost to an unranked. 

I don't care who they have beaten, they've done it mercilessly. 

Proudly dispensing unbridled arrogance since 1983.

HS
I_miss_scoonie's picture

I have to admit your logic has changed my mind somewhat. I can relate to a lot of things you said bc Bama is a very solid team and a victim of their schedule. I didn’t create this topic bc I think Bama is bad this year. I just think the college playoff is in danger of going down a rabbit hole of pre-conceived notions  (bamas always good, Clemson was Great last year, osu lost to Clemson 31-0, PAC 10 can’t compete, Notre Dame got crushed). If you don’t focus into THIS years narrative you may end up leaving Deserving teams out. Then again, they’ve never defined if it’s the 4 best teams, the 4 most deserving, etc.

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saintstephen11's picture

OSU would beat Alabama by four touchdowns.  I hope they back door into the playoffs. They are really bad defensively this year and their offense hasn't went up a good defense all year.

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73buckeye's picture

Per Espin, Auburn will then have 4 "Quality losses" . That makes anyone's win against Auburn a " Quality win"!!!  Anything is possible if you make up the rules as you go long. 

ernie

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Don't know about 43% probability for Alabama. I saw an 11% probability earlier for Alabama, which still seems high but is much more in line with reality. Don't think it will matter though as Alabama's resume is so weak that, unless there are numerous upsets, they have no chance of getting in. 

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bd2999's picture

Not that it matters much, I am just rooting for OSU, but Alabama will have a hard case to make. With no quality wins. They just have the eye test over lesser teams. That is it. It really depends on how the committee views things this year I guess. I mean the only situation that is for sure going to change is LSU and Georgia. Even if everybody wins out the rest of the way. 

OSU has the hardest path to that at the moment with three physical conference games in their way. I doubt they get much love for that either. Would be shocked if they win out and pass LSU. 

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Butch_Driveshaft's picture

ESPNs playoff predictor

lol 

He owes me 260 bucks vacation pay, and he won't fuckin' pay that, so I figured a handful of chips wasn't too much to ask.

 

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_Patches's picture

Five thirty eight gives them 13%, seems more accurate

If you take everything I’ve accomplished in my life and condense it down to one day, it looks decent!

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Dethsyth47's picture

538 doesn't own the SEC Network and answer to them. 

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NewPhilaFan's picture

However, 538 is owned by ESPN.

Let's Go Bucks

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ThailandBuckeye's picture

I just ran a couple of scenarios on 538 and the best I could get for Alabama was 5%. Strange things happen in college football so you never know but I think their ship has sailed this year.

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RemainCalm's picture

Take a deep breath, wait two weeks and it will all sort out. Start wringing your hands and sending notes to Sports Forum’s like this before the conference title game. 

RemainCalm — All is well.

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Rone2002Osu's picture

Mark my words Bama with 1 loss at the end of the year will NOT get in over a P5 1 loss conference champ period! Be it Baylor, Oklahoma, Utah or Oregon. Bama will not make the playoffs this year unless there's a power 5 champ with 2 loses

Pain heals, chicks dig scars, glory lasts forever

Shane Falco

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stantmann's picture

With their best win over a 4 loss Auburn, they would not get in unless there is absolute chaos. Alabama would be smoked by the Buckeyes with Jones at QB. History dictates that the one loss champions will get in over a 1 loss non champion. There has never been an exception to this.

"When you're part of a team, you stand up for your teammates. Your loyalty is to them. You protect them through good and bad, because they'd do the same for you." Yogi Berra

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73buckeye's picture

Didn't the Buckeyes get in in '16 when they lost to PSU, non conference 1 loss champ over 1 loss champ PSU? 

ernie

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IamFin's picture

No. They lost to Pitt and TTUN.

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BUCKEYE3M's picture

Didn't the Buckeyes get in in '16 when they lost to PSU, non conference 1 loss champ over 1 loss champ PSU? 

As stated above, PSU was 11-2, after they won the B1G.

Also noteworthy here, Ohio State was #2 in the CFP rankings going into championship weekend, and they ended up #3 in the final ranking.  Penn State was competing with Washington (12-1) for the #4 spot, not Ohio State. 

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NorthPoleBuckeye's picture
insert Chevy Chase no math gif here.
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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

Alabama has to beat Auburn convincingly and that may not be enough. Oregon is the most likely #4 seed right now 

2x account suspension survivor 

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btalbert25's picture

An Ohio State loss likely makes Bama's odds to get there much lower in my opinion.  If you compare resumes and the way both teams have won their games this year, Bama is odd man out.  Even if PSU were to upset the Buckeyes and we don't go to B1G title game, we're essentially in the exact same position, which would kill Bama's chances.

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buckeye_in_WI's picture

I agree, a near 50/50 seems way too high at this point for Bama, but I'm not gonna be surprised if they end up backing in.

The committee already thinks they are better than everyone but 4 teams. The committee has clearly shown time and time again they will put non conference champs in (2016, 2017) or non champs over conference champs (2018). So dont hurt yourself if they do it again.

If LSU wins out, I can see cases being made for Bama over a 1 loss OU (has a bad loss and has looked bad a few times this year, plus the big12 sucks this year), 1 loss Oregon (shared opponent would be Auburn and if Bama beats Auburn, Oregon would be sweating), and 1 loss Utah (name brand which they will spin as "eye test"). I wouldnt agree with it, but I've seen this committee do crazier things.

I'm not gonna be surprised to see them at 4. I'm just gonna hope tOSU is #1 in that scenario so we can subject them to a serious beat down.

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Manifesto's picture

1 loss Oregon (shared opponent would be Auburn and if Bama beats Auburn, Oregon would be sweating)

I'm not sure Oregon would really be sweating.  Yes they lost to Auburn, who Bama will have beaten in this scenario, but context would factor with the committee.  They lost to Auburn in the first week of the season, in a game where they led 21-6 halfway through the 3rd.  Ultimately Oregon lost by 6 with 9 seconds left in the game.  In other words it's not like they were thrashed, and they would have rebounded to win 12 remaining games and their conference.

Yes Bama will have beaten Auburn, but that 8-4 Auburn team (likely final ranking somewhere around #20 with a fourth loss) would be their best win of the season.  Conversely, Oregon will have beaten two ranked teams (#7 Utah, #23 USC) and played an extra highly ranked opponent to win their conference.

Another comment that I read, I believe on ESPN, that I thought was interesting said (paraphrasing): "If Oregon wins out and still doesn't get in, the committee is sending the message that the entire Pac12's season didn't matter."  For as much as ESPN might beat the drum of the SEC/Bama, they've definitely made quite a few comments in recent weeks about how bad the defenses have been.  Now, yes, the committee has put teams in that in the past that didn't win their division/conference, however that's been years where I think that team has looked particularly strong most of the season.  I'm unsure this Bama team would totally get that pass this year, especially if they end up having a close game against Auburn without their best player (Tua).

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buckeye_in_WI's picture

Oh I agree, if I'm on the committee and were ranking 1 loss Oregon Pac12 champs or 1 loss Bama, I'm picking Oregon.

My point was we've seen this committee disregard things we as fans think should be important. And if Bama beats Auburn that creates an avenue or argument for them the committee will likely bring up. If I were an Oregon fan, knowing how this committee has behaved, I would be sweating.

This committee picks and chooses what they want to emphasize in any given year. Theres no guarantee that they, when looking at a 1 loss Oregon and 1 loss Bama, are gonna value SoS or conference championships over shared opponent this year. Hence, sweating

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EvanstonBuckeye's picture

Tua's injury looms larger than the one loss for Bama. The CFP committee just can't say it out loud... yet.

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LCT's picture

Lots of football left. I bet LSU drops one. Maybe the SEC championship game. Then what?

Lifetime vs. UM: L 9-1, C 8-0, T 5-0
Ohio State University President Jim Tressel

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LCT's picture

Just did some lookin'. Really hard to see Alabama's path unless Texas A&M beats LSU and Georgia, then Georgia beats LSU for the SEC title. Assuming Alabama wins out that leaves them at one loss and LSU & Georgia at two each. And even then Alabama's still not a conference champ so it's by no means a slam dunk.

At what point is it OK to not root for Joe Burrow? I think I just got there. The scenario I just laid out might mean zero SEC teams in this year's CFP.

Go Aggies.

Lifetime vs. UM: L 9-1, C 8-0, T 5-0
Ohio State University President Jim Tressel

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chris's picture

The perception of that conference almost guarantees at least one team. Which is funny because the SEC Champ has made it every year and only won it once.

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LCT's picture

Even if the conference championship game teams each finish with two losses? I don't think it'll happen but if it did there'd be howling if a 1-loss conference champion got left out for them. I'd howl.

Lifetime vs. UM: L 9-1, C 8-0, T 5-0
Ohio State University President Jim Tressel

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Fatpants's picture

43% means they likely won’t get in. Would you feel better if wherever you read that removed the numbers and just said things like:

Ohio State - probably in

Alabama - probably not in

?

PG <3 PG

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I_miss_scoonie's picture

It said 43% on the ESPN “who’s in” show. Not worried if they do get in, just thought it was an interesting discussion given the scenarios for who will be #4. 

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Worthington Buck's picture

So here's my thing.  SEC fans want to use Auburn as some sort of disqualifier loss for Oregon.  Oregon lost on the last play of the game.  LSU beat Auburn by 3, UGA beat them by 7, Florida by 10.  So, Oregon roughly played them on the same level as two teams currently "in".  If anything, the Auburn game proved Oregon is on the level of teams like UGA/Florida, if not LSU.  Because one play went Auburn's way against Oregon but didn't against LSU, then Oregon clearly showed they are inferior?

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

The reason we have a committee is so that they actually watch the games and analyze them. Oregon was the better team in every way except for in the final score that night against Auburn, also that was week 1. I don’t think Auburn should hold much weight over Oregon compared to Alabama in my opinion. Oregon is a completely different team now, and so is Auburn.

2x account suspension survivor 

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logamaniac's picture

What hurts Oregon though is that I believe the committee chairman is the Oregon rep so he recuses himself when they’re discussed.  

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keith7456's picture

I came up with one that I think has a decent chance of happening

LSU beats Georgia = Georgia Out
Baylor loses to Texas and beats Oklahoma = Big 12 out
Oregon or Utah lose once and then wins the Pac 12 = Pac 12 out

Baylor could easily lose another game and then beat Oklahoma in a rematch
Pac 12 is weird and has teams lose tons of games they shouldn't \

That would make Alabama the only 1 loss team out there and in over all those 2 loss teams.

Final four of:

OHIO STATE
LSU
CLEMSON
ALABAMA

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

What is everyone’s thoughts on Minnesota? I feel that if Minnesota finishes their season with wins over #12 Wisconsin and a B1G West Championship, and a win over #2 Ohio State and a B1G Championship, assuming they beat Northwestern before then, they are a lock for the playoffs. How does everyone feel about Minnesota’s chances assuming they win out?

2x account suspension survivor 

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Worthington Buck's picture

Well, IMO the following teams are in for sure if they win out:

LSU

OSU

Clemson

Georgia

Penn St

Minnesota

The teams that need some sort of help:

Alabama

Oregon

Utah

Oklahoma

Baylor

I don't see a realistic path for anyone outside of that group, with the exception of MAYBE Wisconsin, even then they would need some major help.

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

I agree 100% that Wisconsin isn’t out of it either yet. I’m glad you brought them up.

2x account suspension survivor 

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ColbyRoseberry's picture

No way bama gets in if the pac 12 has a one loss champion and bama wins out! It would be saying a win over a top 15 team is a better win then a top 6 win and conference championships mean nothing! I understand conference championships aren't everything but if you are a non champion trying to get in you better have the schedule to back it up and bama doesn't.

Colby M Roseberry

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BeatMeechigun's picture

The CFP field has been remarkably simple each year.  Despite the seemingly changing reasons, these have stayed constant through the smoke:

Step 1.  All undefeated P5 teams are in.

Step 2. The remaining spots are filled with the best 1-loss P5 CCG winners.

18 of the 20 CFP teams have filled one of these two criteria.  18 of 19 that have filled this criteria have made the playoff (the lone exception was Ohio State 2018 where 4 teams ahead of them filled that criteria).

In cases where there are not 4 teams meeting that criteria (2016 and 2017), the top 1-loss team that failed to win their conference was taken.  OSU in 2016, Bama in 2017.

Bama still has a shot because there is a lot of football to be played.  There are currently 11 P5 teams with 0-1 losses.  Within the next 3 weeks that number will be guaranteed to be down to 8 (OU and Baylor will play, Oregon and Utah will play, and PSU or Minnesota will lose once more).  If Clemson, LSU, and OSU win out, that number is down to 6.  That means for Bama to get in, the PAC 12 champion and BIG 12 champion would each have to lose once more.  Not likely, but certainly very feasible to suggest that both the PAC 12 champion AND BIG 12 champion would slip up once in their final 2 games.

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

I feel very strongly that the playoff committee hasn’t gotten it wrong yet. 

2x account suspension survivor 

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keith7456's picture

I feel the same way BR13. I just wish they would cut the committee crap and just bring back the BCS computers and take the top four from there. I think I read that the committee has picked the same 4 every year that would have been in with the BCS computers so just cut the extra crap and do it that way. 

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G.'s picture

I think they're saying that there is a 43% chance that bama outbids Georgia to be the second SEC team in the playoff.

G.

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oztintacius's picture

fwiw, if OSU wins this weekend 538 has us at 33% to win the natty.

Interestingly, Wisconsin has a 36% chance to make the playoff if they win out.

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EvanstonBuckeye's picture

Tua's injury is the trump card for some of these committee members to keep Bama out of the playoff and they'll play that card if it's appropriate (Oregon winning out). Georgia winning the SEC guarantees that Bama is out

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allinosu's picture

This why we won't see an expanded playoffs. There are threads like this all over the country. This why the bid was as high as it was because of chaos and debate. It's exactly why the 4 team is still considered a huge success.

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AtlBuc's picture

Someone finally gets it. 
there will never be excitement about 8 vs 9. 
but with 5 major conferences and a team or two worthy of a wildcard birth the CFP generates way more interest when trying to squeeze into a 4 game format. 

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