College Football Playoff Committee Must Respond to Tua Tagovailoa's Injury and How It Relates to Alabama's Playoff Hopes

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Buckeye24's picture

No way Alabama should be that high without Tua! No way. Jones didn’t do anything in the second half last week after Tua got hurt. 

Artthedart

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avail31678's picture

Maybe it doesn't matter?  Like the author said, we won't learn anything this week on Chicken Shit Saturday - but if they beat Auburn and their backup looks good, then it kinda takes care of itself.

Note: I do NOT think Bama should make the playoffs if LSU wins out, Tua or no Tua.  But maybe a wait and see approach is appropriate here because Bama ain't getting in unless their backup lights the world on fire a la Cardale Jones.

EDIT: Nah, eff Bama, I'm with you - drop 'em.  

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Colortv1967's picture

Why not give Bama the benefit of the doubt this week. OSU had that benefit in 2014. As the season winds up, the rankings will play out. We are always hearing that everything needs to be equal. The committee set a precedent in 2014 that should be a standard know. I don’t see Alabama making the CFP, but this week is not the time to move them down. 

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JeremyJ3028's picture

Exactly ColorTV. Everything plays out. Let Bama prove they drop and the committee honor a godamned conference championship this year. If LSU, Clemson and we win out, take the Pac12 champ and let four conferences punch each other in the mouth for a change. Or let in three SEC teams we can buzzsaw...

Go Bucks!

Beat Penn State!

Be a good person but don’t waste your time trying to prove it.  #MeNeither #HarbaughOrDeath

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CowCat's picture

Why not give Bama the benefit of the doubt this week. OSU had that benefit in 2014. 

I see the logic of not punishing a team for one injured player, even the starting quarterback. But I think the situations are different.

in 2014 OSU had just beaten their rival and advanced to the B1G championship game. It made sense to "wait and see" because of the championship game. Alabama is not going to play in the SEC championship game this year. Even if Alabama blows out Auburn 59-0 in their last game, that likely won't be enough if a team like Oregon wins out.

"We get paid to score touchdowns, not kick field goals"
-- Urban Meyer

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Silver Sniper's picture

Exactly, CowCat. You spelled this out very nicely. 

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Extramedium's picture

We didn't get the benefit of the doubt in 2014, we beat Wisconsin 59-0 for the Big Ten Championship with Cardale in.

And they don't need to be moved down, they are currently out of contention.

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Wyandot Buckeye Fan's picture

No way Alabama gets in now. For starters their not playing in the SEC conference championship game, and losing Tua hurts their chances big time.

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

Alabama has gotten in before without winning their division, let alone the conference championship. Alabama isn't out. They need help, but they are not out. 

2x account suspension survivor 

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mb5599's picture

That Texas A&M is going to be ranked this week is to be expected.  Time to pad some resumes................

Big B

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

I'm calling it now. A&M is win one of their final two games against UGA or LSU. 

2x account suspension survivor 

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CincyBuck's picture

Serious question: can anyone make an argument that Texas A&M is a good team based on teams that they've actually beaten?  I can't help but think they'll be a resume-boosting, top-25 team with 5 "quality losses."  And their best win will be against...  a 4-7 South Carolina (who just lost to App State)?

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deacbfh3's picture

Absolutely agree.  I believe that TAMU has not beaten a team with a winning record yet, and had narrow wins against Arkansas and Ole Miss, which are both terrible.  They are Exhibit A for why 25 teams should not be ranked, because there are probably no more than 10 teams that are actually good each year.

If TAMU were to win either of their last 2 games, I think it would say more about how overrated those teams are, than about how "good" TAMU is.

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BuckeyeLeaf88's picture

Alabama is out.  I feel bad for Tua but I don't feel bad for Alabama.

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Extramedium's picture

They aren't out.  They've gotten in before having not won their division, much less the SEC title.  I saw a prediction this morning that had them as the 4th most likely to get in.    It was like 41%, but they were still #4.

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BuckeyeLeaf88's picture

They’re out.  I understand what you’re saying.  What have they done to get in?  They have no quality wins, best player is out, terrible defense, and they actually have a weaker schedule than Clemson.  Utah or Oregon will jump them.

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avail31678's picture

LSU gave up 614 yards to Ole Miss, and continue to give up chunks of points.  The "eye test" was used to put Bama in in 2017(?) when they didn't even play in the SEC championship game.  Why isn't the "eye test" being applied here to counter LSU's good resume?

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BuckeyeBen7.7's picture

So far, this committee has seemed more reasonable than the ones in years past. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them drop LSU to #2, although I’m guessing they’ll stay at #1

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HandsOfSweed's picture

Mississippi ran for 400 yards on LSU's defense. That's mind-numbing. We would choke Mississippi's offense until they turned purple and passed out.

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Dstacify's picture

Yep. Without Burrow LSU would be a 3-loss team at least.

11 Strong.

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

LSU is going to struggle hard next season. 

2x account suspension survivor 

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Dstacify's picture

Unless they manage to land D'Eriq King. He'd be a good replacement for Burrow if he leaves Houston.

11 Strong.

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Colortv1967's picture

Not nearly as good as Burrow. Unless he is a grad transfer, he would have to sit out unless he got one of those crazy transfer waivers.

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BackInAction's picture

Never underestimate the transfer portal.  I suspect this off season the portal will be crazy busy.

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Colortv1967's picture

Because they keep winning big (except for Alabama) by putting up a lot of points. There is no rule that says a team must have a great defense although no team without a defense has won the CFP. If LSU was the # 1 team last week, there is no reason to move them down. Ole Miss is a much better team than Rutgers. 

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v65animal's picture

"Buckeyes get passed Penn State"   That should be "Past"

Go Bucks!

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Mt. Nittany Goat Herder's picture

Considering how bad our secondary has been recently I'd say "passed" was the correct usage.

We Are...

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tajikey's picture

Should it be, though? "Passed" is relative to position while "past" is relative to time. Buckeyes having gotten passed Penn State would have happened in the past.

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OldTownBuckNut's picture

Alabama was BARELY a top 10 team WITH Tua (seriously, God bless the kid, he’s a class act and someone I’d let date my daughters), and without him they are absolutely NOT a top 10 team. They have exactly ZERO signature wins and shouldn’t even sniff the playoffs. The committee needs to send a CLEAR MESSAGE that there is absolutely no way in HELL more than one SEC team is getting in the playoffs (AGAIN!!). Right now, if Georgia beats LSU in the SEC Championship, and Alabama crushes Auburn, there’s a real possibility two SEC teams make it in...AGAIN. And if either OSU or Clemson loses a game, shit, there could be THREE!! The committee MUST recognize Baylor, Oregon, Utah, PSU and other 1 loss teams (MN?) and their accomplishments this season and that starts with putting Alabama out of it’s misery. Enjoy the NY6 Bowl, boys! ROLL BUCKS!!

Round on the ends and "HI" in the middle. O-HI-O.

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avail31678's picture

Barring chaos with LSU or Georgia, if there's two SEC teams that get in, it will be LSU and Georgia.  Georgia should give TAMU their 4th loss this week and LSU should give them their 5th loss the following week.   Bama would then have only one ranked win then if they beat Auburn AND they won't have Tua AND won't even have won their division.  Bama needs a miracle, followed by miracles to get in.  

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BrutusB's picture

I would just add they need to REALLY beat Auburn. Just like OSU might not have gotten in if we beat Wisconsin 17-14, if you're only going to have one ranked win all year you better make one hell of a statement.

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avail31678's picture

Agreed.  Bama needs chaos and an epic win.

(Even then I'd say Auburn sucks, but the rest of the world won't see it that why.)

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MD-PAbuck's picture

I really wish Oregon wouldnt have blown that huge lead to Auburn. SEC would have no out of conference to stand on at all

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Colortv1967's picture

How do you come to that conclusion? Auburn’s three losses have been to top ten teams, two on the road, and one to the # 1 team by three. How does that make them suck? 

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avail31678's picture

Their offense is pitiful.  I guess "sucks" could be a bit of an exaggeration.  But I'd quickly argue that "quality losses" don't make a good resume.  

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BuckeyeinFlorida's picture

Key injuries are supposed to be a factor the CFP committee takes into consideration. We will see in their next game if the backup is 92% as good or 72% as good.

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ELJTSA76's picture

In what sense though?  Is it “we are going to give you a pass, even though your team isn’t as good without this key injured player?” Or is it “You have a good/great resume, but your team is missing a key player(s) and isnt currently one of the best four in the country?”

I think the SEC’s argument since the CFP’s inception has been that the rankings should reflect the “best” four teams (which is how they approach theIr relentless petition for “two SEC teams” every year) and not the “most deserving” four teams. So it is disingenuous for the SEC fans and the CFP committee to say that Bama should be included... 
 

Even so, LSU and Georgia are ahead, so they are out of spots with OSU and Clemson presumably taking two of the four seeds. Bama would need to win out BIG, and hope that LSU does to Georgia what OSU did to Wisconsin a few years ago. And I think probably Oregon and Utah both would have to lose or look bad finishing the season. There is no way Bama belongs this year, no matter how you slice it, I don’t think. 

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BuckeyeinFlorida's picture

A teams past success isn't supposed to be considered. Committee members are human and they have memories. We will see where they are in tonight's poll. As the next 3 weeks go by there will be good wins, ugly losses and close calls for the teams between 1 and 10. Some issues will work themselves out. Ultimately it will be tense close decisions in who is barely in or barely out. That's why we watch and cheer hopefully for our teams.

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brutus360's picture

I’m fine with where you have all teams. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Oregon gain points on Alabama. 

"Age wrinkles the body, quitting wrinkles the soul" Woody Hayes

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BrutusB's picture

It doesn't get discussed as much, but Oregon's resume also sucks.  They have the same lack of good wins that Bama does.  They would have a win over Utah if they win out, but that's still not much to hang your hat on.

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

To be fair...if the pollsters ranked 7-8 Pac12 teams in the top 15 and kept them ranked there after losses (as pollsters seem to do with the SEC) Oregon would have several quality wins.

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brutus360's picture

I agree

"Age wrinkles the body, quitting wrinkles the soul" Woody Hayes

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ollie81's picture

The only shot Bama has is if both the Pac-12 and Big-12 produce a 2 loss champion. 

"Because I couldn't go for three."

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avail31678's picture

Good point, hadn't looked at it that way.  Even then, though, wouldn't you take LSU and Georgia over 1-loss Bama (assuming Georgia beats LSU in a very close SEC championship game)?

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ollie81's picture

1 loss LSU in the championship game gets the nod over Bama, but then there's a serious question of 1 loss LSU VS 1 loss Pac-12/Big-12 champion. 

"Because I couldn't go for three."

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Crashnburn01's picture

Except Georgia's loss is a steaming pile - and completely fits the "bad loss" narrative.  If they held OSU out for our entirely unacceptable losses in years past., then yes, I have an issue with Georgia.  Having said that, Alabama's combo of an overall lackluster conference schedule combined with a total joke OOC schedule (Sisters of the Poor, anyone?) combined with no division championship, no conference championship and missing your best player should mean YOU ARE OUT!

Stop making the playoff the freaking "Alabama Invitational" CFP committee!!!

Indeed. Why not have both?

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Codeezy's picture

The committee has clearly valued wins over Auburn. If Mac Jones leads them to a decisive victory and they are the only one loss team? Prepare yourselves for Bama to get in. I do believe the committee would put one loss Big 12 champ Oklahoma or one loss PAC 12 champ Oregon in over one loss Alabama though.
 

Georgia could really screw things up for the committee by beating LSU. I wouldn’t think they would want to put (hypothetically in this SEC Champ Georgia scenario) one loss LSU in. But how could they not? Just based on how they’ve picked the 4 in years past. 

How long has that van been there?

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Dstacify's picture

Tbf if OSU were to face a Mac Jones-led Alabama squad in the CFP I'd be foaming at the mouth (and I'm sure Chase would be doing the same).

11 Strong.

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Hrobbbs's picture

Yes this exactly. I kinda want Alabama to make the playoffs and get crushed, preferably by us.

Holy Buckeye!

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Extramedium's picture

Yeah, I really don't know why everyone is so against the idea of two SEC teams getting embarrassed by OSU.

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

The committee does take into account injuries.

I think if Alabama wins convincingly @ Auburn, it doesn't change much.

That doesn't mean that Alabama is getting in, but that Tua's injury has no effect on how they view Alabama. I strongly believe that #4 will be one of Oregon/Utah, Oklahoma/Baylor, or LSU if they lose to Georgia. 

2x account suspension survivor 

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

The committee does take into account injuries.

How do you know this? The committee's criteria does not seem to follow any pattern or logic.

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

They’ve said it 

2x account suspension survivor 

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

The committee seems to say something one week and then do the exact opposite the next week. It will be interesting to see how they view Alabama in today's poll. 

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BuckeyeLeaf88's picture

Enough talk about Alabama.  They had the weakest schedule and were overrated.  Next!

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BrutusB's picture

The committee left us unchanged after Barrett got hurt in 2014.  I don't think they need to drop Bama like a rock (yet).  But if/when they either lose or look unconvincing vs Auburn it will take care of itself.

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Dstacify's picture

If OSU hadn't beaten Wisconsin by the score of 59-0 with Cardale at QB they wouldn't have gotten in that year. Both Art Briles and Gary Patterson were publically campaigning against OSU getting in over TCU and Baylor at the time due to their loss to Va Tech that year. OSU having Cardale at QB during that 59-0 victory is what ultimately won the Committee over.

11 Strong.

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BuckeyeinFlorida's picture

No, we were in 5th place until our 59 - 0.
B1G championship win. That was huge and it gave us a chance. We maximized that opportunity.

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bd2999's picture

I don't think they drop Alabama until they play a game without Tua and see how they perform in that context. That seems to be what they did with OSU. If they look a mess vs Auburn or another opponent than they will get dinged.

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Buckibry's picture

Tua's injury means, that I feel really bad for the guy.
Hope you have a speedy recovery my friend.

I'll work for helmet stickers!

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Hateblue's picture

I can’t stand the approach that a team should be ranked lower because their starting qb is out. Does no one remember 2014? We were all screaming we shouldn’t drop with Braxton out, and again when JT went down. A team is far more than one player, and Bama should not be dropped solely because Tua is out. I think they’re overrated as it is, but if Tua going down is the only change to how we felt about them last week, they should sit still. 

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

IIRC, we got dropped in the polls after the Braxton injury but not after the Barrett injury.

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BrutusB's picture

We fell from pre-season #5 to #8 after Week 1 (first chance they got to vote after the Braxton injury). 

After the Barrett injury we actually rose from #6 to #5.

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

We rose because Mississippi State (who was ranked ahead of us) lost to Mississippi. 

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bornbredbuckeye's picture

The Buckeyes were also playing in the B1G championship game against the #4 team. Bama doesn't have that chance, so why should they even be allowed a chance in the CFP. In 2017, Auburn was their only loss, and Auburn was the west champion.  Not this year!

GO BUCKS!!! *ichigan sucks!!!

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Extramedium's picture

We were screaming we shouldn't drop because we beat Wisconsin 59-0 with Cardale.  And we didn't drop, we rose to #4.  It's not the same situation since Bama doesn't have a chance to play another game of that caliber with Jones.  

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ollie81's picture

I think if Ohio State finishes the year with wins over top 10 PSU, possibly top 10 Michigan next week, and if Wisky wins out another top 10 match-up in the championship game they will end up #1. 

"Because I couldn't go for three."

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BrutusB's picture

I agree, but it would be nice if Jimbo earned some of his millions and upset either UGA or LSU.  That would remove any doubt.

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

I think regardless of if it is Wisconsin or Minnesota, Ohio State is going to play a Top 10 team in the B1G Championship. Minnesota isn't going to drop far for their loss @ Iowa. 

2x account suspension survivor 

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TMac's picture

These Rankings with No Changes from last week are likely correct, and don't mean much. The next Three weeks will see some meaningful games played and plenty of movement in the Top 6. 

The Buckeyes just need to keep on winning and they will emerge #1 on or before Selection Sunday. 

Bama will need help to get in with Tua Out, and not playing in the SEC championship, they would need to be the only 1 loss P5 non conference champion.

#ItsGreatToBeABUCKEYE

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bornbredbuckeye's picture

They will not get in, unless there is another 2007 where every #1 team loses in the last few weeks.

GO BUCKS!!! *ichigan sucks!!!

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Steelydan54's picture

If Bama beats Auburn convincingly is a BIG if.... but if they do and GA beats LSU, GA is in and then if CFP puts Bama in after loss to LSU, the entire country will rise up in revolt!  And will lead to a 6-8 team playoff for certain at the first opportunity. So if it happens, the CFP is signaling the country that it's time to blow up the 4 team fiasco. 

Steelybuck54

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ChicagoBuckeye10's picture

Even if we don't see a change in Alabama's ranking, we will have a chance to hear from committee chair Rob Mullens, who will undoubtedly field questions about how the committee evaluates Alabama without its best player.

The rankings reflect team performance through Week 12, without looking ahead. Am I wrong? 

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southalabamabuckeye's picture

The #4 spot is Oregon's for the taking. If they win out they are in. Ohio State, LSU and Clemson are also all in if they win out. It would seem to me that this is what the committee is hoping for if they want little controversy.

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TMac's picture

Agree - but also Oregon and Utah are interchangeable, and hopefully they meet in the Pac12 Championship game. 

#ItsGreatToBeABUCKEYE

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mittenst8buck's picture

I think Alabama's schedule is why they should be left out, nothing to do with Tua. When JT went down we still got in because we won a conference championship and had a good number of good wins. Alabama has nothing to hang their hat on with or without Tua. At the end of the day as a human I hope Tua goes on and has a great career and does well for himself. That said he should not be a factor of being in or out of the playoffs...they didn't win the SEC west and have no good wins to overcome that barrier and put them in.

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Hovenaut's picture

I get it why the continued Alabama consideration, but right now they're not looking like they'll finish a conference champion...regardless of who their starting QB is. So Georgia ahead of them makes sense to me.

But I think if Oregon wins out, and captures the PAC 12, I think they're deserving. Or if they falter, and Oklahoma and Baylor win out, and then meet again in the Big XII CG, should the winner of that game merit consideration?

TL;DR - The playoff is complicated enough. I'm for the four strongest conference champions.

Hindsight is, and in, 2020

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Chewbucca's picture

Nothing 'Bama has done this year rates a playoff spot.  They have a 2014 Baylor level schedule with no distinguishing wins.  In the one decent game they played, they lost... at home.  Even with Tua, their body of work this season was not adequate. 

They have every opportunity to schedule a ninth conference game to increase their SOS rather than playing an additional patsy and yet they avoid it at all costs. As such, they have no room for a loss in my book.  Same for Georgia.

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youra6's picture

Bama should get the OSU treatment in 2014. If their backup passes with flying colors, not having Tua shouldn't hurt them. But I highly doubt their backup can put the performance that Cardale did in 2014.

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MD-PAbuck's picture

I think the commitee has seen Mac Jones in action enough to know hes a "game manager" and not carrying the team. Cardale was more of an unknown with a 12 gauge arm and the personality to match.

Im wondering if we see Saban pull a struggling Jones for the tua's brother in the auburn game ala Hurts/Tua in the title game

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tcm1968's picture

I drop Bama below Oregon, Utah and Oklahoma this week. In 2014 when JT went down we actually went from 7th to 6th but that's because Miss St lost that week. 

You want to make this easy on the teams and fanbases do this..

1. LSU 2. OSU 3. Clemson 4. Georgia 5. Oregon 6. Utah 7. Oklahoma  8. Bama

Gives you a top 8 that makes perfect sense and a top 7 all vying for their conference championships.

Go Bucks!

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Kentuckeye's picture

As long as we win out, LSU wins out and Clemson wins out, it should be those 3 plus a 1 loss conference champion which would have to be OK or Oregon.  No reason to put in Bama with or without Tua but for sure not without him.  They'd be the only other 1 loss team that isn't a conference champ.  

Where we are going to get screwed and stuck with 2 SEC teams is if Georgia beats LSU in the SEC championship and they will both get in.  

How firm thy friendship

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deacbfh3's picture

I agree.  I can't see Alabama getting in over any 1-loss Power 5 conference champion at the end of the year.  Not with their crappy resume.

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EvanstonBuckeye's picture

I would say that they have to beat Auburn decisively after thoroughly crushing WCU this weekend. If they start slow against WCU, it could be too much to overcome even with a good performance in the Iron Bowl as there will probably be a shift in the rankings. Furthermore, Mac Jones has to play well against Auburn. One key to us getting in was that Cardale was so instrumental in our curbstomp of Wisky in 2014.

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RunEddieRun1983's picture

We will learn with Bama this year how much the committee values the "legacy" of being involved every year and this time being just on the outside looking in.

They've been a factor every year, it SHOULD NOT, but, does their consistent involvement in the playoff since it began have a factor on their positioning? 

Urban Meyer left an incredible legacy. 12/4/18 Ryan Day begins his.

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Buckeye Chuck's picture

Punishing Alabama now for the loss of Tua wouldn't make any sense, any more than it would have made sense to drop the Buckeyes when it was unknown exactly how long Chase Young would be out.

But when it comes to picking the playoff teams, they're likely going to have a judgment call, unless their offense hits some kind of seasonal high point vs. Auburn (shades of the 2014 Buckeyes in Indianapolis). You can't pretend it's the same team. Think back to 1973 and the Big Ten ADs voting to send the Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl over Michigan — it's clear that a major factor in that pick was the injury to Wolverines QB Dennis Franklin. People were getting defensive about the Big Ten's record in Pasadena, and believed the Buckeyes were the best chance for a win. 

If Bama hasn't done enough without Tua to show that they are probably one of the four best teams, you can't choose them for the playoff, especially if they already lost a game even with Tua.

The most "loud mouth, disrespect" poster on 11W.

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terryin20878's picture

It doesn't matter for anyone, especially 'bama, for another three weeks.  Anything can happen in that time.  If "bama is that much of a different team without Tua, then surely the Iron Bowl will hash that out.

As for OSU and "hardly their most convincing", if you wanted convincing, leave the starters in for all but the last few minutes.  There were names on jerseys which were unfamiliar to anyone who doesn't know the complete roster - scout team, walk-ons and all - like the back of their hand.  Not that big a deal if Rutgers can shut down an all-freshman OSU line-up.

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CowCat's picture

Alabama gets the most attention this week because of Tua's injury, but I think the more interesting stories are around the #4 spot after the championship games are over.

-- If LSU wins out, OSU wins out, Clemson wins out, Oregon wins out ... that means Georgia lost, and it would be hard to justify keeping them in over Oregon.
-- If OSU wins out, Clemson wins out, Georgia beats LSU ... likely Georgia and LSU are still in (maybe 3,4 or 2,4), but the Oregon fans will be pissed

"We get paid to score touchdowns, not kick field goals"
-- Urban Meyer

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UpIrons's picture

We benefited from "the benefit of the doubt" regarding our injured QB and Alabama (or any team) deserves the same from this committee. However, if they want to stay where they are or make it into the CFP then they'd also better do what we did and obliterate their opponent with their backup QB. Them's the rulez!

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mc22's picture

The only team I care about getting in is the one playing penn st. this weekend.  The rest is just noise.  Keep winning and all takes care of itself.

Excuse me.....Capt. obvious is at my door knocking.

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DaiTheFlu's picture

It's funny that everyone keeps saying Bama has a shot at the playoff if they "Beat Auburn convincingly". I mean, sure, Auburn isnt a bad team, but they're basically the SEC version of Iowa. If beating Iowa is your lone resume data point, you're pretty well screwed.

We can't stop here; this is bat country...

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Dillon G's picture

They can move Bama after they lose to a mediocre Auburn team.

#walkaway

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deacbfh3's picture

I'd rate Alabama based on their performance to date, not based on Tua's is injury status.  Body of work to this point should be all that matters in the rankings. 

Having said that, Alabama's body of work is weak, relative to the other 1-loss teams.  At this point, I think there is a decent argument that Oregon, Penn State, and even Oklahoma should be ahead of them right now.  

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NOBLUE's picture

i don't give a Sh*t about Bama either way who cares ..Go Bucks!! ...just keep winning and nothing matters how anybody is ranked....

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Ca114fire's picture

1. Beat Penn State
2. Beat TTUN
3. Win B1G championship
Everything else will take care of itself.

And bama was overrated anyway. Without Tua, even more so. We're only having this talk because its bama. They could lose 3 games at home and the CF world would still be having this conversation.

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