538 Has an Interested Group Take on Wins over Early Highly Ranked Teams Versus Their Final Ranking

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Trapper99's picture

If a loss drops a teams performance, then they really aren't a good team. So I'll say a highly ranked team that has a loss early and ends the season with 3 or 4 losses isn't really a good team from the beginning.

Example: Michigan

Klatt made an excellent point this week. If Minnesota had the media hype this year that Nebraska had, they would be a top 4 team right now. Preseason rankings are a sham, especially with SEC bias. 

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

I’ve always heard the committee mention Their Top 25 only and where teams are currently ranked 

2x account suspension survivor 

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NewPhilaFan's picture

That is my understanding.  When the committee refers to ranked wins, it is only teams ranked that week.

Let's Go Bucks

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Sanantonefan's picture

They should not rank teams until 6 or 8 games are played. Teams on paper (or reputation) are not the same as they are on the field.

You Got Barbecue Back There!?!?!?!

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huffdaddy's picture

The problem is us (the fans). Sportswriters will say: you could eliminate the coaches' poll or AP poll and it wouldn't matter because publications will run their own preseason and weekly rankings.

And they do it because: clicks. We like to read those articles. 

"I don't think you necessarily have to get a trophy to be a winner." - Nick Saban 1/2/15.

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Sanantonefan's picture

Yep, it will never end--it is all about the almighty dollar!

You Got Barbecue Back There!?!?!?!

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NewPhilaFan's picture

The committee follows that philosophy by not providing a ranking until early November.

Let's Go Bucks

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cdub4's picture

Pretty interesting article. To me, a perfect example of this is Texas. Not to knock LSU, but they got a lot of respect for that early season 45-38 victory. Granted, it was in Austin, but Texas' body of work isn't overly impressive. They are 6-3 with a trio to Baylor in a few weeks and several close Big 12 games. But the matchup was hyped and primetime matchups leave an impression in people's minds.

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Worthington Buck's picture

Or highly ranked early season teams falter because they aren't actually as good as believed to be when they were ranked highly earlier.  Seems like a really faulty premise.

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osu78's picture

I think what you said is the fundamental underlying issue. The question is how to incorporate late folds and better performances into the CFP decisions. 

Strive at all times to bend, fold, spindle and mutilate.

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NewPhilaFan's picture

Never mind.  I read the article and realized that my point was made in the first paragraph and I was off a bit on the details.

Let's Go Bucks

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IBLEEDSCARLETANDGRAY's picture

Kind of like us beating Sparty when they were ranked but not getting credit for it because their season went in the toilet.

"I find your lack of kalua disturbing" - Darth Lebowski

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BUCKEYE3M's picture

I'm surprised they say Ohio State should want Indiana to win.  I'd think a higher ranked Penn State would be better for their resume.  Shows you what I know.

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Signor Ferrari's picture

It's because that let's us lose a game to them and make it to the Big 10 Championship

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BUCKEYE3M's picture

Well shit, that was as plain as the nose on my face. 

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Signor Ferrari's picture

The best part of this is that it let's you pick results (win/lose next game, win out, etc.).  Try to pick OSU losing to Rutgers, however -- it is so improbable, it won't let you do it.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

SP+ set the win probability for that game at 100%.  First time I've seen that for a Power Five game.  Usually it stops at 99%.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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NorCal Buckeye's picture

Dang, Ryan Day and Co broke the computers.

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