Looking at the Remaining Games That Will Shape This Year's College Football Playoff Race

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Hovenaut's picture

College football serving it up big the next few weekends.

This is going to be a fun month.

Hindsight is, and in, 2020

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stlbuckeye15's picture

Clemson’s schedule is atrocious. No wonder Dabo is decidedly against playoff expansion. Can’t play more than 2 hard games! That would be ridiculous. 

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Citrus's picture

Boy would it be glorious for Virginia or Pitt to win the ACC!

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wojodta's picture

Conversely, if they do drop a game, I think they're fucked

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deacbfh3's picture

I agree.  With their schedule, ANY loss should drop them out of the playoff conversation.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

And Hello UC-Memphis-Navy-SMU.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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BuckNut_1974's picture

Yeah. Besides LSU we have the hardest schedule of all the teams in the top 6 and probably even the top 10.

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SilverHaven's picture

Most football coaches, and especially coaches in the Big Ten including Ryan Day, favor expanding the playoffs.  Most coaches in the SEC are against it. No duh.

"The Big Ten had the most overwhelming support, possibly reflective of the fact that its conference champion has been left out of the top four in each of the past three seasons."

Here's a link to the survey and article:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27961116/the-college-fo...

"Style points matter. That's the world we live in, and those are the rules, so go play by them." (Ryan Day)

Ua Mau ke Ea o ka 'Aina I ka Pono. The life of the land is preserved in righteousness. (Hawai'i state motto) Aloha nui kakou.

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85ThruTheHeart's picture

Putting Buckeye and conference allegiances aside, there’s not much to be said about Clemson’s schedule. Other than scheduling tough OOC opponents which the committee hasn’t shown to be important, there’s nothing they can do. It’s not like ND where you can tell them to join a conference or the Big12 in 14 where you say they need a title game to bolster their record. They’re in a sucky conference which is great for them. Hopefully it means they are woefully untested/overrated, but it could also mean they are fresh and ready for big time matchups. Now not crushing their competition is another story, but a win is a win.

"He has that look in his eye when it's time to start feeding the beast" UFM on EZE

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

To be fair to Clemson they did schedule Texas A&M and South Carolina OOC. South Carolina is typically a 7-5 bowl team, but Texas A&M was supposed to be pretty solid this year. 

2x account suspension survivor 

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Lighteyes's picture

True enough, though it's worth noting that doesn't really matter to the committee - it's only about what the games really end up as.

The math for Clemson is pretty simple: Win and you're in as a 13-0 champ no matter how garbage the schedule, similar to how 2015 Iowa and 2017 Wisconsin rode the easy division of the B1G to being ranked #4 prior to losing the B1GCG. Lose a game and you better hope to be the only one-loss team standing because the schedule is so shaky.

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

South Carolina is Clemson's rivalry game every year. So let's not give them too much credit for that OOC scheduling bonanza. Also, except for an occasional decent year...SC isn't very good. 

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deacbfh3's picture

Also, Clemson scheduled 1-AA Wofford.  Wofford!

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Bucks19's picture

I don’t think we need to trash the scheduling. Outside Cininnati.....blah. 
If Clemson loses one though they are out

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Army Nut's picture

I think it is only right to draw the distinction.  When TTUN was/is having its nervous breakdown, tOSU was constantly derided for a poor schedule.  Now the shoe is on the other foot.  I am NOT saying it is Clemson's fault (South Car, Texas A&M, whatever).  But it has to be a factor.  The Demon Deacons are the ranked team you play all season!  There's below average schedules and awful schedules.  Clemson's is the latter.

"we ain't come to play school"

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Moo Strength's picture

The ACC has routinely been a pathetic conference. It’s filled with legacy great teams like Miami, V-Tech, and FSU, but all of those teams are shadows of their former self. They’re like the Nebraska of the ACC or the Texas of the Big 12

If I must choose between peace and righteousness, I choose righteousness! -Theodore Roosevelt.

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NuttyBuckeye's picture

The ACC lately is like the AFC East.  One good team and a bunch of losers...

What's round on the ends and high in the middle? Tell me if you know!

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BuckNut_1974's picture

Texas A&M was supposed to be pretty solid this year. 

Thats EVERY year. And every year they disappoint. Overrated year in and year out.

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stlbuckeye15's picture

These are valid points. I wasn’t trying to suggest that they are doing everything in their power to avoid playing good teams. The ACC just happens to be very weak right now and they are taking full advantage. Can’t blame them for that. 

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Yoda888's picture

Don't think people are necessarily upset w the individual teams, but the hype machine that's the pundits who are crowning teams based on their own self serving purposes.

Evryone and their brother has been talking about Alabama as if they could be the next 24 teams at the same time...and this is before they play LSU or any ranked teams!

Yoda888

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Buckfrombirth's picture

Good points, Yoda, and I agree. Except I expect Alabama to beat LSU. I don't want that, but in Tuscaloosa, the Tide is a friggin' beast.

I survived Cooper, and I hate Tai Streets.

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DaiTheFlu's picture

While I agree with your comments in spirit, when has Ohio State ever gotten the same benefit of the doubt when the B1G was trash? Weve heard that "Ain't played nobody, Pawl" argument against us for years, so it's totally fair game to bash Clemson for the same thing, in my opinion.

We can't stop here; this is bat country...

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Byaaaahhh's picture

Yep. Back then opinion mattered since you had to be top 2 but everyone was doing their best to discredit OSU since that was the narrative. I think it's not much different since if we were back in that system, Clemson likely wouldn't make it if OSU, and LSU/Alabama win out. We'd probably be hearing the same thing about the ACC, tbh. Clemson hasn't played anybody, they don't deserve to make it in, etc. Or am I giving the media too much credit?

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chris's picture

I think you're spot on. Clemson might be left out of the BCS national championship even while being an undefeated defending national champion if we and Bama/LSU winner is undefeated. That would reshape the entire narrative among media folk at present if that were still the system.

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Nutinpa's picture

There is absolutely no and I mean zero chance of that.  Yes, Clemson plays a soft schedule.  And before I find myself as an ash in an urn, I want to beat Clemson more than anyone.  But the fact of the matter is, they are the defending NCs and are unbeaten.  Assuming they wind up that way, it would be a travesty and a joke to leave them out. 

They had a soft schedule last year and bitch slapped their two opponents in the playoff.  If they had been routed, this would be a different story.  But they won, and did so convincingly, dissolving the "iron sharpens iron" argument.  

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Bucks19's picture

Clemson is IN if they are undefeated. No question 

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

While I agree with your comments in spirit, when has Ohio State ever gotten the same benefit of the doubt when the B1G was trash?

2016 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NCAA_Division_I_FBS_football_rankings

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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DaiTheFlu's picture

Oh, and let's not forget that Clemson willingly schedules an FCS team most years. That offsets any tough OOC matchups that they might play.

We can't stop here; this is bat country...

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bd2999's picture

That is not true about the ooc. They count as a quality win. OSU would not have gone to the playoff without the win over Oklahoma in 2016. And the loss to OU in 2017 did not hurt as much as the Iowa loss, the committee punished them more for that and the two losses.

You are rewarded with at least a quality win and if it is a good team not punished as hard for a loss. However, the later also depends on the context of the rest of the contenders and what their resumes look like.

Not sure about this stuff about a strong ooc not mattering. It has mattered several times before. Winning a game against a big time ooc foe is a major boost.

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85ThruTheHeart's picture

That may be... if you win, but why risk it? The only reason that mattered was because we lost to PSU. Look no further than Bama and their cupcake scheduling. The committee doesn’t care that they play no one as long as they take care of business. They won’t look at a loss to OK and think, “well that’s as good as a win against citadel”. Why even take the risk? I guess you hope it covers up for a conference loss, but you’re also setting yourself up for 2 losses. To counter your example, take our loss to OK the next  year. Had we not shit the bed against Iowa, a win over Miami OH would have sent us to the CFP undefeated rather than a loss to OK.

"He has that look in his eye when it's time to start feeding the beast" UFM on EZE

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deg0ey's picture

The reason to take the risk would be the hypothetical scenario where there's an undefeated team from each of the Power 5 (or four of them and Notre Dame) and somebody has to get left out based on their strength of schedule. It's unlikely to ever come up in the real world, so scheduling tough out of conference opponents is probably counterproductive, but in a world where Bama, OSU, Oklahoma and Oregon all finish undefeated, Clemson is going to be on the outside looking in unless they schedule some legit out of conference games because the rest of their conference sucks so hard.

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Extramedium's picture

I'm sure the thinking is if we need the tie-breaker when all else is considered equal, a win vs OU is better than a win vs Citadel.  Or hope that a close loss to OU is considered better than a loss to whoever the other team we are on the bubble with might have lost to.

Or you can bet that you won't lose at all, which is very rare in CFB, even with a relatively easy schedule.  Clemson nearly did it already but they escaped thanks to UNC basically giving up in OT.

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Then please explain how Alabama got in in 2017. I know that we had 2 losses along with USC but we lost to Oklahoma and Iowa (which was our 9th conference game that year). Both Ohio State and Southern Cal had better SOS stats than Alabama, who had no top 15 wins and a cakewalk on chicken s**t Saturday. If OSU schedules an easy opponent instead of Oklahoma and only plays 8 conference games (also takes Iowa off the schedule) we are undefeated and in the CFP that year. I guess my rant is really about the fact that the committee seems to value SOS when comparing Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 12 teams but the ACC and SEC always gets passes (more so the SEC). 

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chris's picture

I think if the Iowa game had been remotely competitive, we might've squeaked in. Has a 2-loss team ever made it in? On top of that, didn't we make it in when Penn State won the conference and beat us head to head? I think that highlights the significance of carrying 2 Ls.

Take 2 losses including allowing Iowa to score as many points in 4 quarters as they typically do in a season and it's a big ask to get invited to that dance.

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Exactly why I question the fact that we scheduled Oklahoma that year. If we don't schedule tough OOC games and go back to 8 conference games our chance to go undefeated or have only one loss increases dramatically. SOS won't matter to SEC teams unless you start leaving them out of the CFP because of it. 

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chris's picture

I agree and I think our conference is stupid for not taking the path of least resistance. As frustrated as I am with the reality that there's no standardization across conferences, it is even more frustrating to watch our conference make it exceedingly more difficult for B1G teams to make it in while SEC commish is paving the path to the playoffs as simply as possible. No tough games on back to back weeks. Byes before tough games. 8 conference games. No conference games the week before rivalries. It's a proven strategy. We should take advantage of it.

Besides, if all conferences took this path of least resistance, NCAA would be more likely to establish a stricter set of standard rules. Instead, we hand them an advantage over our schools. Why?

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2morrow's picture

I guess my rant is really about the fact that the committee seems to value SOS when comparing Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 12 teams but the ACC and SEC always gets passes (more so the SEC). 

EXACTLY! UV AZ

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tajikey's picture

The other option would be for the NCAA to relegate the ACC to a Group of 5, forcing Clemson to the SEC or Big 12. 

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buckeyes763's picture

I don’t understand why people on here continually say the committee doesn’t value scheduling tough non-conference games. The only reason Ohio State made the playoff in 2016 is because they beat Oklahoma. You don’t and shouldn’t get credit for losing those games 

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85ThruTheHeart's picture

It may be fairer for me to say that the committee doesn’t DEvalue scheduling (and beating) cupcakes. Until they do, that’s the much safer bet. To the points above, that’s assuming there aren’t 5 undefeated teams from separate conferences, but that’s also a pretty safe bet.

"He has that look in his eye when it's time to start feeding the beast" UFM on EZE

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Name any of Alabama's tough non-conference games over the last 4-5 years (particularly in 2017 when they didn't win its own division after suffering a 12 point loss to a mediocre Auburn team. 

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chris's picture

I couldn't name any of their OOC teams, but I do wonder what was their strength of schedule (using something more unbiased like Sagarin) and measure that against this season. My sense is the SOS was significantly stronger in the past and the SEC isn't quite as strong as it was (Bama's dominance has caused many foes to wane). So they may be less able to get away with a weak schedule moving forward.

The purpose of that SOS is to beat out team's with "comparable resumes" which I take to mean other power 5 teams with the same number of losses.

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Alabama's SOS is not very good over the last few years. Since the CFP committee gives them a pass on SOS, Alabama has no incentive to schedule tougher OOC games. 

2016: Western Kentucky, Chattanooga, Kent State

2017: Fresno State, Colorado State, Mercer

2018: Louisville, Arkansas State, The Citadel

2019: Duke, New Mexico State, Southern Miss, Western Carolina

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NewPhilaFan's picture

You have some key omissions in Alabama's OOC games.:

2016:  Southern Cal

2017: Florida State

2018: Louisana Ragin Cajuns (well, this isn't a key omission)

Let's Go Bucks

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

True. USC lost 3 out of its first 4 games before finally righting the ship (although defensively they weren't exactly great). I think that was when Helton finally started to play Darnold over Browne later in the year (during the 3rd loss against Utah). 

Florida State in 2017 finished 7-6 and had to schedule (or reschedule?) a game against Louisiana-Monroe to become bowl eligible. Not sure but perhaps the game was rescheduled because of a hurricane Irma?

So Alabama did have 2 theoretical good opponents scheduled at home to open the season, although FSU turned out to be really bad that season by their standards and USC struggled mightily until Darnold was inserted during week 4 for USC.  

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NewPhilaFan's picture

FSU's season went into the toilet when the star returning QB was injured early against Alabama and lost for the season.

Let's Go Bucks

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

That’s right, I remember that now. Really wrecked their season. 

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NewPhilaFan's picture

When that snowball starts rolling downhill, it is hard to stop it.  They were lucky that they had the makeup game to get into a bowl.

Let's Go Bucks

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Wasn’t it Blackman that got hurt?

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chris's picture

I believe Blackman was who came off the bench in that game - iirc he was a true freshman. Francois, perhaps, was hurt?

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Francois was their other QB. Wasn’t sure which one was the starter and which was the backup. 

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Bucks19's picture

Repeat after me

Quality wins can’t and don’t make up for BAD losses. Have we not learned that?

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

Already told the wife no plans on Saturday's for me for the rest of the month.

Should of included first week of Dec. as well for the B1G championship game just in case as well 

2x account suspension survivor 

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brutus0717's picture

Dont forget December 28th (CFP semifinals).

"We gotta go win this next game and make the State of Ohio proud!"-UFM

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Lighteyes's picture

There are some experts who believe Alabama won't get into the College Football Playoff if it loses this weekend and finishes the year 11-1 and on the outside looking in of the SEC title game. It's hard to imagine the committee leaving the Tide out in that circumstance, especially if they come out with a convincing road victory against their top rival.

The circumstance to leave out Alabama is pretty straightforward actually. First off, there's really only one spot available with 13-0 Clemson, LSU/Georgia as a zero-one loss SEC champ, and an undefeated Big Ten champ Ohio State. The contenders for that spot:

11-1 Alabama: No conference championship, only one win over a ranked team (8-4 Auburn), home loss to LSU 

12-1 Oregon: Conference title, neutral-site win over 11-2 Utah, close neutral site loss to Auburn. Feel free to sub in 12-1 Utah here instead if you'd like.

12-1 Oklahoma OR 13-0 Baylor. If Oklahoma, will have a win over a 10+ win Baylor team and will either (a) avenge their only loss to KSU or (b) pick up a second win over that same Baylor team. If Baylor, 13-0 P5 champ is 13-0 P5 champ, enough said.

11-1 Penn State: Win over 10+ win Minnesota, loss to Ohio State, not a conference champ. Likely behind Alabama because of the respect Alabama gets, unless there's a huge disparity in how the respective losses happen (e.g., Penn State loses close while Alabama gets crushed).

Not all of the above teams will happen, but at least one or two of the non-Bama teams will probably happen...and not sure Alabama wins that argument. Yeah, yeah, I hear you running in to call out 2017, but that second loss (by a blowout margin, no less) made a big difference in getting 11-1 non-champ Bama in.

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BuckeyeRealist13's picture

Light - I agree, we should be looking at Alabama's schedule a lot more critically than a lot of fans are. Auburn still has Georgia, like you said very real possibility that is 8-4 Auburn by the time Alabama plays them, or 8-5 after they play them. 

2x account suspension survivor 

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Extramedium's picture

We just have to hope that the CFP actually does its job and doesn't hand out lifetime achievement awards since "it's Bama"

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Buctor's picture

Light, nice summary.  But I think you missed completely considering one possibility.

Georgia wins Sec title game.  That leaves the 12-1 Joes.  Would expect they too would get in ahead of bama.  

Beat everyone, in every sport, all the time!!!

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NOLABuckeye's picture

LSU's defense may have a tough time since their number 1 linebacker, Michael Divinity, left the team this morning.

Nothing cleanses the soul like a no call pass interference.

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avail31678's picture

Hmm...number 1 linebacker might be a bit of a stretch.  ESPN reports that he has a reduced role compared to 2018 because of the return of K'Lavon Chaisson, who takes a majority of the snaps at that position.

However, he's the second defender (d-lineman Justin Thomas) to leave the team in recent days for personal reasons...Hmmmm...

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Larryp713's picture

I would love to see Wake Forest shock the world. They look pretty good. 

The SEC is probably the most intriguing it has been in years. Bulldogs against LSU/Bama this year should be a very good championship.

That said, if the Buckeyes stay focused and healthy, its their championship. Go Bucks!!!

Respectfully,

Larryp713

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DeacBuck's picture

Deacs, baby! Our offense is legit, but Clemson will likely run all over the defense. I'd guess Clemson will be favored by ~25 points, even if Wake wins @VT this weekend. The ACC just sucks, but Clawson is building something special at Wake. Hope he sticks around.

Go Bucks, Deacs, Panthers, Braves

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BucksHave7's picture

Were running the table. 

BucksHave7

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OH-IO's picture

SECBS! SECBS!

OH-IO living BACK IN COLUMBUS after 32 years in the ATL. 

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FalcotoyourMartel's picture

I though it was SECESPN?

Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory lasts forever. -Falco

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okiebuck's picture

Bucks keep that "white belt" mentality and nobody stops them; only team that beats them; is themselves.

Matt Ruhle should be getting way more credit for what he's done after inheriting that shit show in Waco.

The only hard day was yesterday

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SpaceCoast's picture

Can't wait for that big Alabama-Western Carolina showdown on Nov. 23.  WCU lost to Wofford 59-7.  Yes, the same Wofford that was waxed by Clemson this past weekend.

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Extramedium's picture

Look for Wofford to get a #25 ranking near the end of the season.  Clemson might need that quality win

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Northbrook's picture

Chaos and Pac12 are best buddies.

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MercyTex's picture

Why does the Stanford band come to mind with that statement?

Our people are everywhere, Esto Dignus.

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Ocbucks's picture

I would just challenge the wording “games with Penn State and Michigan will certainly challenge OSU”. Probably will or could challenge OSU would be more accurate.  I wouldn’t be overly surprised if both of those are easy wins. It’s easy to make that case. There is a some ( good) chance both final teams will add a loss before seeing OSU. 

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SpaceCoast's picture

Let's hope not in Penn State's case.  Nebraska and Wisconsin already let us down with losses before they played us.
 

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bd2999's picture

Nebraska would not be a quality win anyway. Wisconsin still counts despite both losses. If they lose again, they will not count much for OSU. Just like MSU was considered a quality win but they have lost a total of like four times through this point or five now. Hardly that impressive anymore.

Win and it does not matter what opponents do.

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SpaceCoast's picture

True, but at the time both would have been higher quality wins, the Nebraska game was also touted as a real test for the Buckeyes until the Colorado game.

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Extramedium's picture

it wasn't touted as a test by anyone who had any idea what they were talking about

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BucksHave7's picture

Spread in both these games will have us as double digit fav's and we will cover both!

BucksHave7

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Bucks19's picture

We still on for $100 each with you giving me Penn St and Michigan 14 each? Or am I going to hear you only bet in AC?

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BucksHave7's picture

What are the signs of a gambling problem?

BucksHave7

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Bucks19's picture

That wasn’t that hard of a question. Yes or no. 

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Extramedium's picture

I actually think they probably won't challenge OSU.  Anything can happen, but I really don't think we see a real challenge until the playoffs.

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Coach Hype's Hype Man's picture

What’s your reasoning for not thinking PSU will challenge you guys? The last 3 years have all come down to the last possession and this years team is way better than last year. I understand you guys look outstanding and like the number 1 team but why so quick to dismiss Penn State? 

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Probably because your coach finds ways to choke at the end of games...

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Coach Hype's Hype Man's picture

Your response still doesn’t give a reason for why it won’t be a close game

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

Wasn’t giving a reason for justifying a close game, just that Franklin will choke it away if it is. 

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BucksHave7's picture

Besides it’s James Franklin and PSU has looked bad in a couple games this year, PSUs offense is ranked in the 50s and I can’t see that being good enough v this Buckeyes Defense.

Buckeyes offense put up 38 (and should have been 45, we killed the clock) in horrible weather vs Wisky.

Thus Buckeye team is very special.  Diverse offensive attack that spreads the field and also pounds  it up the middle. 

Defense is fast and big.  All the analysts say this Buckeye team looks unlike any others in country.  Well coached to maximize our athleticism.  

Special teams have been great.  And Garrett Wilson hasn’t even been amazing YET, and he will. 

BucksHave7

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Bucks19's picture

We better be ready to play #purdueiowa

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buckzilla1's picture

You play to win the game! You play the win the game!

beat the crab out of Maryland.

You never lose to those pricks. Ever. Ever. Urban Frank Meyer

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BBQ_Fan's picture

they'll face either Minnesota, Iowa or Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game

I thought Illinois was not yet mathematically eliminated. Just sayin'

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AZ Buckeye13's picture

I was told there would be no math...

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Dr. IlliBuckeye's picture

Rooting for a blowout one way or the other in this week's edition of the Game of the Century; this would increase the likelihood of only one SEC team getting into the playoff, especially if the winner of this game wins the SEC.
Rooting for the Demon Deacons of course. And I think playing a one-loss Minnesota team (their loss to PSU) in the B1G championship game would be better than getting a re-match with Wisconsin.

Buckeye in the desert of Washington state.

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SpaceCoast's picture

Best case is Iowa (revenge factor).  Minnesota #2. 

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Vabuck213's picture

Yea I think LSU would have a better shot at a 1 loss bid because they would have a slightly better schedule where as Bama would have wins over Auburn and .....I'm kinda rooting for the winner of this weeks game to go on undefeated and be the 1 seed. We go undefeated and are the 2. Clemson wins out and is 3 then one of the one loss teams is 4, be it Oregon/Oklahoma/LSU/Bama. We get a revenge game against Clemson to start and then a matchup with one of the SEC teams for the big one. That would be a pretty rare scenario though if you think about it, having 3 undefeated teams but at this point doesn't seem too outrageous. 

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seyekcuB's picture

Clemson can not be allowed to back into the playoffs.

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BucksHave7's picture

For what its worth, Jerry Palm has us #1 tonight. 

He said we beat the what tonight will be the committees own #13 (Wisky) and #16 (Cincy) by a combined score of 80-7. 

BucksHave7

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Chargerbuck's picture

I could see Clemson being #5 in tonight’s rankings

LSU

OSU

Bama

PSU

Ckemson

seriously, why should Clemson be rated ahead of PSU... (at least this week)

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Bucks19's picture

As much as it should, not happening 

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IfNotBucksSparty's picture

Fingers crossed lsu beats bama, auburn beats georgia and bama, georgia beats lsu

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bucksfan6's picture

But Joey (joke) Galloway thinks Clemson is number one. Ranking a team on what it did the previous

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