Bill Connelly Releases SP+ Rankings

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oprettyricky's picture

ESPN writers/analysts when they come up with stuff to put the SEC or any specific SEC school as number one in anything football related 

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CincyOSU's picture

Bill Connellly just signed with ESPN a few months ago. His metrics are pretty widely respected and the formula was in place LONG before he joined ESPN. The conspiracy crap needs to stop.

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oprettyricky's picture

someone is having a bad wednesday and cant take a joke......bye buddy, hope your day gets better 

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stuckupnorth's picture

Cincy it ain’t happening.The conspiracy won’t stop. The uneducated are everywhere 

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oprettyricky's picture

so you are calling an OSU alum uneducated...........yikes

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Snake64's picture

Not every graduate is equal.... just saying general studies.

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SilverHaven's picture

What gives here? I thought NavyBuck91 was given the franchise for SP+ and nobody else was allowed to publish it on 11W.

Ua Mau ke Ea o ka 'Aina I ka Pono. The life of the land is preserved in righteousness. (Hawai'i state motto) Aloha nui kakou.

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aj99's picture

Bill started working there a year, but when did you start? If I remember from your comments it was about three years ago. I kid. But seriously, when? Just kidding, Cicny. You're always jumping on the ESPN haters and it's good to have your voice.

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gobucks544's picture

What ever his system is, it wildly over ranks SEC teams. Every SEC team is in the top 52 teams and 9 in the top 17 is ridiculous. These S&P numbers are biased or skewed in their favor.  

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BuckeyeInOrlando's picture

If you read it, you'll realize that a 5 year game history, returning production, and recent recruiting (including transfers) are the factors for the pre-season rankings. 

Knowing these factors, you should understand why every SEC team is ranked so highly. Even the crappy SEC teams recruit well, because, well... it's the SEC.

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gobucks544's picture

Explain Vandy, Kentucky, USC, Arkansas. It doesn't make sense at all. This includes SOS in its calculation and the SEC is 1-9 in SOS and 14 of top 16.  Its stupid biased.

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CincyOSU's picture

Its stupid biased.

You do realize the S&P has been around for over 10 years and has only been a part of ESPN for a few months, right?

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johnblairgobucks's picture

Regardless, it's still stupid, lol.

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CincyOSU's picture

Regardless, it's still stupid, lol.

I agree with you. I hate all forms of preseason polls. The sport would be so much better off without them. 

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Snake64's picture

Hang in there GoBucks I prepared some Tin Foil Hats for you and your "EsPn Is OuT tO gEt Us" friends. 

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johnblairgobucks's picture

Whatever floats your boat man. Doesnt bother me in the slightest.

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johnblairgobucks's picture

BTW Snake64, I know that this account is also an account of Cincy OSU. You know how you complain other people use burner accounts to downvote you, well pot meet kettle on your "burner " account, lol.
Remember this
"COMMENT 19 AUG 2019
1 reply
I wouldn't be too confident about 2012. It's debatable, I also don't think either OSU or ND had any business trying to tussle with Bama that year.

No not everything you post is "probabilities, trends, and statistics" it's homerism at it's finest. I see your posts constantly and i just roll my damn eyes.

2014-2015 yea I'll give you those two years for sure. Most talented team in the country by far but losing to MSU you're out i'm sorry. BACKUP QB i think you keep missing that part. As talented as that team was they looked sloppy and didn't play up to the potential that year and hell if they had gotten into the playoffs in 2015 it wouldn't have changed. If you want an example i'll give you 2014 FSU. They went undefeated but looked ugly the whole season and didn't look like a championship team. They got into the playoffs and quickly got whipped by Oregon 59-20. Same thing that would've happened to OSU vs anybody. It's what happened in 2016 too.

And i really hope you realize you just made my WHOLE point. 2013 OSU and Clemson played each other and CLEMSON WON THE GAME. How are you going to tell me OSU was better that year when the lost to CLEMSON in an ACTUAL game. You literally hurt my brain.

Commented on Ohio State Opens at No. 5 in 2019 Preseason AP Poll
?
No body capitalizes random shit in a text, besides Cincy.....lol
Try harder bro. You can't get my goat, because I'm here to enjoy myself

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CincyOSU's picture

Wait just a god damned minute Johnny Boy. I might be a lot of things, but I’m not some chicken shit who hides behind a burner account(unlike many of your ESPN hates us club members). I say what I think from my own damn account. You better come correct before making some bullshit accusations. Then again, you’re safely behind your computer making baseless accusations as a means of deflection.

And if some MOD wants to say this violates the commenting policy, that’s fine, but you better delete Johnny’s BS accusation as well. 

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johnblairgobucks's picture

Oh?
How bout this gem, Snake 64?
"OMMENT 20 AUG 2019
1 reply
No, your first point was about Cincy always having to bring up ESPN or he couldn't post. He literally said nothing about it and wasn't responding to anyone who did say it. You were asking why provoke it but don't slander or say false things about the guy when he didn't even do it this time. Just makes you look childish.

Commented on Notorious Fake Twitter Trolls Come After the OSU QB Competition..."

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CincyOSU's picture

Are you high on drugs? Or are you just that desperate? Be a freaking man. 

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CincyOSU's picture

You’re just showing your character, or lack thereof. But if your delusions help you sleep at night, well, have at it. 

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johnblairgobucks's picture

Spotlights on you. do what you do Snake 64.

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CincyOSU's picture

Last thing I’ll say as I’ll listen to Navy. If your “proof” is that “no one else capitalizes random words” then does this mean KMP10 is also one of my accounts?

Kmp1008/26/19 11:38 AM 

I refuse to read a single syllable this bi*ch writes... I despise her. And why Meyer would have EVER granted her access to write the piece is dumbfounding given the events of last summer and her part in it

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Knock it off. You’re trolling now. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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Snake64's picture

Holy shit man, me and Cincy are not the same person and i'm not one of his burner accounts. We have similiar opinions on certain things but the amount of mental gymnastics you used to come up with that conclusion is downright outstanding. 

I have no need for a burner account and have more important things to do than log on two diff. accounts / go read someone's post history. Holy shit i'm blown away at how delusional some of our fan base is. BTW while you were reading all my posts you'd probably notice that this account only posts between 6:00 A.M. - 5:00 P.M. M-F as i generally only log on while at work. Otherwise when i'm at home i don't comment or visit the site hence why i'm always late on posts. Some detective you are.

My comment about Tin Foil Hats was directly aimed at people like you. Thanks for playing right into it LMAO. 

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Actually, there is no bias in S&P+.  It is all statistically based and adjusted for opponents. If you look at S&P+ and Vegas each week, they're nearly identical unless there's been a significant injury or suspension that would impact the outcome.  S&P+ doesn't account for that.

S&P+ and its close cousin, FEI, account for every snap or every game in FBS. They also throw out garbage snaps (victory formation, clock kills, and scoring when the game result is already assured).  I've followed both since the 2014 season, and they're very accurate predictors through the second half of the season.

The SEC has out-recruited every other conference by a large margin over the past decade and a half. There's a reason that pollsters and systems like Sagarin, S&P+, etc highly rate many SEC teams. In the aggregate, they have better talent.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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bd2999's picture

I am not sure I agree with that. There is always bias in statistics, but is a different sort than most people deal with. There are assumptions that are still made. The question is always then are the assumptions logical. If they are than the statistics will hold up.

The preseason polls are more biased because of more uncertainty. They will get more accurate, but the proxies being used make good sense and are not out of left field.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

There is always bias in statistics, but is a different sort than most people deal with. There are assumptions that are still made. The question is always then are the assumptions logical. If they are than the statistics will hold up.

You can call it bias, but I would argue that when you look at Connelly’s “Five Factors”, I think you would agree that he’s pretty close to spot on. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/college-footb...

It’s not a resume ranking system, so it doesn’t care about who beat who when. All it cares about is how many yards, how many explosive plays, how often you make the required yardage on a per snap basis, how often you score based on starting field position, etc. So a team that plays really well against great competition, but loses, will have a higher rating than a team that beats up cupcake but does so in an ugly fashion. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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osu992's picture

If bias isn't your preferred word, maybe "judgment" is. He's trying to find things that situationally correlate to scoring, and needs to slice the game into measurable bits to study correlation. The bias is the weighting of those factors, and also to preseasons stuff that eventually filters out.

For instance, you could go on recruiting rankings and say OSU is #1 because Fields is a dream prospect (even better than Haskins) surrounded by a lot of returning talent. But you could also say that continuity at QB is more impactful than rankings.

 But the annual refresh of S&P+ highlights the role of judgment/bias in its design.

New Day for OSU. Same noon for TTUN.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Fair enough. But that doesn’t make it an “SEC bias” as many in this thread seem to believe. You’d have a hard time wickering your algorithm to slant the ratings toward one specific conference. If all of the inputs are statistically data from every snap of every game, the SEC isn’t doing something so different to allow a mathematician to do that. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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osu992's picture

No...but someone had to thank Bd2999 for participation.

New Day for OSU. Same noon for TTUN.

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BloomingtonBuckeye's picture

Navy, I know you go over this every year with us, but as resident expert will you explain how S&P+ determines “scoring when game result is already assured”? I would seriously like to know. 

There are plenty of games where +21 with 5 min left is enough because you as a spectator can see the opposition is defeated. Whereas, there are times when +21 w 5min left and a team is driving with all the momentum equates to high stress...that is until you get a pick-6 and go up 28. 

I’d love to know where is the line? Does S&P pick up on this nuisance?

In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten, then he who continues the attack wins. - Ulysses S. Grant

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Garbage Time %Run

This personality stat looks at how an offense operated when a game was out of reach -- i.e. not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 in the second, 21 in the third, or 16 in the fourth -- either when a team was winning or losing.

I think you’d be hard pressed to find many games that a team down by 21 with five minutes remaining was able to pull off the win. I’m not saying none (because someone right now is fervently searching the inter webs to find that one game in 1977 where it happened), it’s just so rare that you can consider that last five minutes as garbage time. Maybe even that whole fourth quarter.

Which is why Bama was off the chart last season. They hardly played their starters in the second half. So, yes, their competition was weak, but they were so efficient they were only getting statistical credit for 1/2 - 3/4 or a game. 

I also like the fact they don’t add in meaningless plays, like a team taking a knee for three straight downs at the end of the half/game. That’s negative yardage for the QB and kills your rushing average. Same with clock kills; that’s technically an incomplete pass and zero yards gained on first down sometimes, which in the advanced stats world is a big bad no-no. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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BUCKEYE3M's picture

Actually, there is no bias in S&P+.  

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

There's a reason that pollsters and systems like Sagarin, S&P+, etc highly rate many SEC teams. In the aggregate, they have better talent.

Nothing subjective about that statement... 

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PhillyNut's picture

I am more amused by their SOS ranking.  They occupy 14 of the top 16 spots for SOS in these rankings. How that works when they schedule 3 Sisters of the Poor every year and one decent/good OOC is beyond me from a mathematical standpoint.

Their record in bowl games has been:

2018: 6-6

2017: 5-5

2016: 6-7

2015: 9-2

2014: 7-5

So when they actually have to play comparable competition across all of their teams turns out that they are barely above .500.  How can that translate into such high SOS?  It is all about the stats you chose to use and the ones you chose to leave out.

I don't buy one goddam drop of gas in the state of Michigan!

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gobucks544's picture

Check Alabama's schedule and then Notre Dames. They really want to claim 85% of the SECs schedule is tougher than ND's?  its laughable.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Because what you’re looking at and what S&P+ is looking at are two completely different things. 

1) Conference bowl records are the single worst evaluative measure of an individual team. If the B1G goes 8-0 in bowls against Power Five teams last year, is Rutgers going to beat Ole Miss this year? Hell no.

  It is all about the stats you chose to use and the ones you chose to leave out.

Posting the SEC’s record alone, and saying “See, they’re barely above .500,” is the definition of a straw man argument. And you completely left out what every other conference has done. From 2006-2015, the SEC had the best record in bowl games. They were #2 in ‘16 & ‘17, and #1 again last year. Over that same period, the B1G has been 8th, 5th, 9th, 2nd, 5th, 4th, 8th, 8th, 2nd, 3rd, 7th, 1st and 3rd. 

No conference has been as consistently good in bowl games over the past 15 years as the SEC.

2) Strength of Schedule is meaningless in a sport where 130 teams play 12 games. In any given season, any given team plays less than 10% of the total competition. That’s a really poor statistical sampling. How do you actually compare two teams schedules? In most cases, there is 50% or less commonality of schedule between any two P-5 teams in the same division (6 of 12 games) less than 33% commonality in cross division teams in the same conference (3 of 12 games), and in most cases less than 8% commonality between teams in different conferences (1 of 12 games). Look at 2006 if you disagree.  The entire football world thought OSU and Michigan were the two best teams in football. One month after The Game, those two teams got destroyed. 

3) Pre-season S&P+ only cares about returning production (O & D), recruiting averages (2 and 5 year), and a splash of past performance (which accounts for coaching). Is it perfect? Of course not. It’s meant to be predictive, not reflective.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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BeatMeechigun's picture

con·spir·a·cy
/kənˈspirəsē/
noun

a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful.

It’s no secret that ESPN owns the SEC Network. It’s no secret that ESPN desires to market the SECN beyond the Southeast. It’s no secret that ESPN desires SEC football to be NATIONALLY relevant. It’s no secret that the vast majority of ESPN’s best games of 2018 involved two SEC teams. ESPN can pick and choose the BIG TEN, PAC, etc. games they desire, but it’s no secret that widespread interest in SEC football games from Alabama to Arkansas to Vanderbilt to Kentucky games benefits ESPN tremendously.

There is no conspiracy theory.

There is blatantly obvious incentive for ESPN (a network that pre 2007 covered collegiate football nationally with no perceived bias - aka no incentive to promote programs within a specific conference) to promote their premier (not their only... but their PREMIER) conference they cover with greater marketing to increase viewership of their product.  ESPN covers more SEC football games than BIG TEN football games. They have incentive to market the SEC more aggressively and they do.

What irks most of us is that they pedal non bias to the viewer.  To say ESPN has indifference about the success of BIG TEN teams to SEC teams bc they cover the Big Ten is equivalent to saying has indifference about the success of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers (big market) vs the Royals, Brewers, and Mariners (small markets).

Stop suggesting that obvious marketing bias displayed by ESPN is a tin foil hat conspiracy theory.

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CincyOSU's picture

I would like to have the reactivation fee waived from my current bill

It is 100000000% "conspiracy talk" to think that ESPN in any way, shape, or form wants to harm the B1G or OSU brands. I've never said ESPN doesn't want a return on their SEC investment, but they sure as shit don't want to harm the B1G or OSU to reach those returns.

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FieldsofJreams's picture

You continue to have zero understanding of market share.

ESPN gains more from a 1% increase in the valuation of the SEC than they do from the B1G.  Yes they want CFB in general to succeed, but they want the SEC to be on the top margins of that success.  By doing that, they are somewhat unintentionally harming the perception of the B1G.  

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CincyOSU's picture

You continue to have zero understanding of market share.

And you continue have zero understanding of basic business. AND, you're moving the goalposts...."By doing that, they are somewhat unintentionally harming the perception of the B1G"

1) My entire issue is the preposterous claim that people think ESPN WANTS to bring harm to the OSU brand. It's absurd because...

2) While they have a more significant investment in the SEC, they are paying MORE per year over the life of the agreement for only half the rights to B1G games. You do NOT, invest hundreds of millions of dollars into a brand only to INTENTIONALLY want to see that brand fail...especially when said brand brings you some of your highest ratings(ratings = money).

3) To expand upon #2, ESPN's biggest investment into the SEC is the SEC Network. And, just like the B1G Network, it is geared towards a specific fanbase...B1G fans don't care what's on that channel the same as SEC fans do with B1G Network. When they helped form the SEC Network, they were targeting the MASSIVE SEC fanbase....not the casual fan in Chicago or Salt Lake City. ESPN doesn't NEED for Bama or Georgia to win the CFP every year for the SEC Network to be a massive success. It will be, and is, successful because the SEC has a passionate fanbase....just like the B1G.

4) ESPN, in terms of their flagship channels, just want ratings regardless of who brings them in. They make the same amount of money getting a 10.5 rating from a B1G game as they do an SEC game. So, if the name of the game is ratings(which it is), there is NO reason to PURPOSELY shit on the B1G brand....which is my entire point.

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BUCKEYE3M's picture

ESPN gains more from a 1% increase in the valuation of the SEC than they do from the B1G.  Yes they want CFB in general to succeed, but they want the SEC to be on the top margins of that success.  By doing that, they are somewhat unintentionally harming the perception of the B1G.  

You forgot to add that ESPN invested $2.5B (billion-with-a-B) in the SEC, so they're pretty heavily invested in the conference. 

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CincyOSU's picture

You forgot to add that ESPN invested $2.5B (billion-with-a-B) in the SEC, so they're pretty heavily invested in the conference. 

And you forgot to mention that ESPN has MORE(with and M) invested annually in the B1G over the life of agreement than the SEC...for only HALF the rights. So, they are pretty heavily invested in the B1G too.

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BUCKEYE3M's picture

ESPN isn't invested in BTN.  It is, however, invested in the SEC Network.

The B1G thumped ESPN in the wallet when it signed its new deal with FOX.  ESPN used to have exclusive rights to nationally broadcast the 3:30 eastern time slot on ABC, and back air on ESPN or ESPN2.  They lost that, too.

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CincyOSU's picture

The B1G thumped ESPN in the wallet when it signed its new deal with FOX.  ESPN used to have exclusive rights to nationally broadcast the 3:30 eastern time slot on ABC, and back air on ESPN or ESPN2.  They lost that, too.

Are you just cherry picking which data points "prove" your point? ESPN is paying MORE annually for only HALF of the B1G's rights than any other conference. I don't understand why some of you are so hell bent on "proving" that ESPN wants to harm OSU and the B1G. I've never really said ESPN isn't biased, a business will be biased toward anything that helps their bottom line. So yes, the SEC helps their bottom line, but, so does the B1G. You do NOT invest hundreds of million of dollars into a brand to turn around and try to harm said brand.

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BUCKEYE3M's picture

Oh I never said ESPN has it out for Ohio State. I just see their pro-SEC trumpeting as being centered on ratings and profit. Period. It's just good business. 

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gobucks544's picture

It absolutely not conspiracy that they over rank SEC teams especially early. This hurts other conferences indirectly. Hell some had Georgia over Oklahoma and OSU in playoff and even after the season. Its blatant.

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CincyOSU's picture

It absolutely not conspiracy that they over rank SEC teams especially early.

How does ESPN over rank teams? They don't own either of the official polls. And, the S&P has been around for YEARS, well before it became a part of ESPN.

Hell some had Georgia over Oklahoma and OSU in playoff and even after the season.

1) Wasn't just ESPN.

2) It was the opinion of a FEW of the DOZENS of OPINION analyst on that site. It doesn't make it the official stance of the network.

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BUCKEYE3M's picture

How does ESPN over rank teams?

They hold a monopoly on the College Football Playoff.  They have exclusive broadcast rights to the games, the rankings shows, and the release of the bracket, as well as nearly every other bowl match up in America.  

It is basically their own little party.  

And, if you want a clinical example of over-ranking teams, just look at how the committee valued Fresno Goddamned State in 2017, in what a vast majority of reasonable people saw as nothing more than a prop for Alabama's abomination of schedule strength when they backed into the CFP.

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CincyOSU's picture

They hold a monopoly on the College Football Playoff.  They have exclusive broadcast rights to the games, the rankings shows, and the release of the bracket, as well as nearly every other bowl match up in America.  

Ok. Show me where they, ESPN, have a say in ranking the teams? You can't, other than through assumptions that fit your narrative. The CFP has no ties to ESPN, other than ESPN owning the rights to broadcast the games. The CFP is it's own entity.

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BUCKEYE3M's picture

You're right.  They have no influence over something they effectively own and have exclusive rights to broadcast, thereby creating every opportunity needed to drive up ratings by manufacturing match ups.  

That's not a conspiracy theory, that's a reasonable opinion.

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CincyOSU's picture

That's not a conspiracy theory, that's a reasonable opinion.

And, it's also a reasonable opinion to think THAT opinion is flawed....especially when trying to "prove" ESPN is against OSU in any way. It makes ZERO sense financially....if ESPN wants ratings, as you mentioned above.

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johnblairgobucks's picture

It's my opinion that YOUR random capitalization of words in your TEXTS is rediculous....it doesn't create any emphasis of point, IF that's WHAT you are Trying to accomplish

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CincyOSU's picture

It’s ridiculous, not rediculous.  But THANKS for your opinion. 

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BUCKEYE3M's picture

Show me where I ever said ESPN is out to get Ohio State? I think you're arguing on blast and lumping everyone who has a different opinion than you into one basket. I've never said that.

I maintain the SEC has an embedded interest in driving up the ratings of the CFP, and manufacturing match ups, not that they hate Ohio State. And right now the SEC is the hot brand, and putting two SEC teams in the CFP got America more fired up than not doing so. That's how I see it.

ESPN is pro-ESPN, and that is why they make the decisions they do. 

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johnblairgobucks's picture

Yeah, the ABC, ESPN, Disney, Marvel executives are really not smart. They dont manage their product. They would never make sure everything they produced went as close as possible to boardroom plan. Hell....they dont even have a plan.

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tajikey's picture

just look at how the committee valued Fresno Goddamned State in 2017

Leave my alma mater out of this. They did nothing to harm you or your family. AND, they're easily the best college football program in California. Sad, I know, but true.

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AtlBuc's picture

a network that pre 2007 covered collegiate football nationally with no perceived bias

Isn't that the year the SEC started winning the natty consistently?  They have won 9 since 2006.  That's not bias, that's Results.

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BeatMeechigun's picture

That’s (2007) the year the Big Ten Network launched. 

BTN / Delaney telling ESPN to shove it when they lowballed him was what changed things.

Yes, for several seasons the NC was from the SEC but Saban (2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017) and Meyer (2006, 2008, 2014) were ultimately the success factors for most championships. Auburn bought one (2010) and LSU won one in a year where no one rose to the top (2007).

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3rdtimesacharm's picture

Obviously cincy works for espn

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DrSpaceman's picture

*Sees Florida at #6*

Folks, it's time to get #MadOnline.

"Medicine is not a science" - Leo Spaceman

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bornbredbuckeye's picture

NO WAY IN HELL  the sec east is the second best in the nation. you have UGA and the who? Give me a break...

GO BUCKS!!! *ichigan sucks!!!

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ohiowhitesnake's picture

Florida above Ohio State tells me all I need to know. Did anyone else watch that shit show last weekend. 

Feed the trolls

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BrutusB's picture

These exclude the Week 0 games.  When the ratings start using his other metrics, like offensive efficiency, I'd expect Florida to drop.
 

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Which is what everyone in the college football world said about OSU after the Virginia Tech loss in 2014.

It was the first game of the season. One data point isn't enough to go on.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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ohiowhitesnake's picture

Except Florida had a returning QB and OSU had a RS Frosh who was inserted late in camp. 

Feed the trolls

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southalabamabuckeye's picture

Right now these analytics are about as accurate as a preseason poll. Everything is guess work right now. That said, they are enjoyable to look at to close out the off season.

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BrutusB's picture

Probably, but at least he uses data rather than just picking who he likes.

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rosycheeks's picture

While watching the Florida-Miami disaster on Saturday, my 6yo asked, "Dad, why are there rankings already? Nobody knows who's good yet."

Out of the mouth of babes.

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kareemabduljacobb's picture

Looks like Bama took another hit, on top of those suspensions just saw a tweet stating starting LB Dylan Moses blew out his knee in practice yesterday.

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FieldsofJreams's picture

That is terrible, Moses was the truth.  Bama is in trouble this year, their LB corp is in shambles.  What they have lost is like us losing Young and Coop.

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kareemabduljacobb's picture

Feel like Bama always loses a stud LB to injury before the season starts.

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osu992's picture

So much for being able to maintain his independence with his new employer. #madonline /s

New Day for OSU. Same noon for TTUN.

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CincyOSU's picture

How did he not? The formula hasn't changed. As others have said, these rankings will look very different in a few weeks.I swear, it's like some of you WANT to find things to complain about.

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osu992's picture

...did you read to the end of my one line comment?

New Day for OSU. Same noon for TTUN.

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gobucks544's picture

9 SEC teams in the top 17 is all you need to know.

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gobucks544's picture

Plus it has every teams SOS top 16. Always over ranked to start. They lose 4 or 5 games and just say they had a tough schedule last year. I expect them to be better this year so top 10 the next year. Rinse and repeat.

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DonJuan's picture

Mississippi State - 4 losses + loss to Iowa in bowl game = 10th
Iowa - 4 losses + win over Mississippi State = 25th
Missouri - 8-5 + bowl game loss = 13th
Northwestern - 9-5 + bowl game win = 63rd

What a joke

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BrutusB's picture

NW also lost to Akron and Duke last year, and their 4-year starting QB is now gone. 

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DonJuan's picture

True but there are not 62 other teams I'd rather play

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Buckeye Chuck's picture

Missouri lost their QB too. Kind of hard to see the basis for them being ranked so highly.

The most "loud mouth, disrespect" poster on 11W.

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FieldsofJreams's picture

MIZZ also lost a 4-year starting QB.

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JohnnyKozmo's picture

 While that’s true the formula values recruiting also...hunter johnson is the highest rated QB they’ve ever had.   

You're too stupid to have a good time. -Dalton

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BuckeyeInOrlando's picture

Advanced Statistics...

It uses a 5 year history (not just last season), returning production, and recent recruiting (as well as transfers, departures, etc. when possible).

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bd2999's picture

I would read what metrics they use. Right now they are weighted more towards the not great, but it makes sense. If those teams fall apart again than they will fall off. Just the way it is.

All polls at this point of the year are wrong. This one is at least trying to use some math to get to the numbers in the end.

Returning starters, recruiting classes, past performance are all a factor in this metric and they fall off as the season goes on and current data becomes available.

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FieldsofJreams's picture

Is MSST really 10th? They lost a crapload of production.  Fitzgerald, Abram, Simmons and Sweat off the top.

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gobucks544's picture

South Carolina at 17. Vandy is in top 50 over Northwestern.

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bd2999's picture

Folks realize that the SP+ metrics have been around for quite a while at this point right? This is nothing new. And they are one of the more accurate systems to predict outcomes. At the start of the season they are flawed, because there is no data yet, but the bias goes out of it after the first few weeks.

I do not know that this is unreasonable. If OSU goes out and does what we all think it should do than things will be fine. OSU will move up in these rankings and all of the other ones.

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oprettyricky's picture

Yep! I think most people do realize it has been around for a while and know it will change as data for the season is gathered... we just like to poke fun at ESPN...but some people can't take a joke (CincyOSU, not you) since the running theme across the country is that they love riding the SEC coattails and those people get all defensive. 

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gobucks544's picture

But what causes the SEC to start with 9 teams in the top 17? and do people use this as a justification to preseason AP ranking or early week rankings. They use this shit to boost SEC teams early then complain the SEC beats each other up when only playing 8 conference games and chicken shit Saturday.

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bd2999's picture

I can sort of answer that. The preseason polling takes into account recruiting. So, pending your class it is rolled in there. The SEC schools, even the bad ones, do relatively well on that front and will be elevated beyond where they will actually be at the end of the year.

I would need to look but generally the top 10 in recruiting rankings are full of SEC teams, so is the top 20. Something like the Big Ten you will have OSU, Michigan and PSU. Then everybody else will be dragging behind. They try to balance for this with on the field success over the last five years (to try and avoid accounting for fluke years too much) and also how many plays are coming back from the previous year.

All of those together can lead to overvaluing some teams going in compared to where they will end up, but the logic behind it is sound. The top ten teams all seem reasonable as teams that could finish in the top five at the end of the year.

Still just a more logical and sound estimate than the other polls.

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SackMan's picture

So what you are saying is, SEC teams (even the ones that aren't good at playing football games) are always decent in the recruiting front, and therefore, are given credit for having that ability to acquire talent (even though apparently they don't even use it) and the result of this is getting credit for having good players instead of playing good football.

To summarize, SEC teams earn their rankings based on who is on their teams, not the product they put out on the field? Makes sense.

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Cooper's picture

Legend has it if you say “sEcSPN” three times in front a mirror, CincyOSU will magically appear and shame you.

This is definitely where I parked my car.

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Cooper's picture

Hey, it worked.

This is definitely where I parked my car.

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Port Richey Buckeye's picture

Comment removed for violating the site's commenting policy.

Fuck eSECpn and fuck Mythigan.

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CincyOSU's picture

Comment removed for violating the site's commenting policy.

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CincyOSU's picture

I'll ask again, how did my reply break any rules?

[See excerpt from 11W Commenting Policy below]

DON'T BE A JERK

This one is simple. Don't do these things:

Leave abusive or hateful comments related to race, gender, sexual orientation, or religious beliefs.
Hurl personal attacks on another site member

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CincyOSU's picture

Hmm, replying to someone who was admitting to breaking the rules? I don't think questioning their character is out of line at all in this case...I've had A LOT worse hurled at me that has gone unchecked.

Case in point, just look at the chickensh1t down votes.

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IloveSaturdays's picture

Maybe because you included ports comment in your reply. Your comment alone might have survived

I have to return some videotapes

-Pat Bateman

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BUCKEYE3M's picture

I didn't know 11W did notifications...

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CincyOSU's picture

I didn't know 11W did notifications...

Umm, I can easily see that I have negative dv's...those little numbers at the top right of your comment. What are you IMPLYING?

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BUCKEYE3M's picture

What are you IMPLYING?

That it is freakishly uncanny how you show up when a comment is made about ESPN like Batman did when the Bat Signal went up. By way of comparison, it's like you get notifications that someone wronged ESPN, and you show up to defend them. 

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CincyOSU's picture

Exhibit A of chicken shit downvoting. How did THAT comment deserve 10 downvotes? Lots of tough guys with burner accounts. 

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Mantis's picture

I saw something on ESPN where they listed these SP rankings and in the same table they listed the Strength of Schedule (SOS) for each team.

I saw that Bama had the alleged 12th highest SOS.  Then I looked at their schedule... and.... I couldn't stop laughing. 

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BrutusB's picture

Doing SOS based on preseason is silly.  Sagarin updates his SOS metric after every game based on opponents you've played to date, which makes more sense.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

S&P+ adjusts SOR (Strength of Record) throughout the season.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/8/29/17795292/college-foo...

And for everyone whining about the SEC's "strength of schedule", it's about how you beat who you play more than its about who you play.  When OSU stops getting housed by bad Iowa and Purdue teams, or trailing Maryland for an entire game, fans can complain about not getting into the CFP. Until then, we need to have a nice hot cup of STFU.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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FieldsofJreams's picture

You are rude in general, and especially rude for a Mod.  I have never in my life told anyone to shut the fuck up.

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CincyOSU's picture

Except, he didn't tell YOU, or anyone in particular, to "shut the fuck up". He was making a point that we as fans, in general, need to shut up when it comes to blaming others for our failures.

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FieldsofJreams's picture

What would we do w/o you Cincy?

Our failures? I don’t know about you, but I just sit on the coach during the games.

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CincyOSU's picture

Our failures? I don’t know about you, but I just sit on the coach during the games.

There you go, deflecting as usual. Rather than address what I said(a response your your over-sensitivity), you move the goalposts. Par for the course.

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oprettyricky's picture

So many DVs for you by 11W community today...sleep it off....you are so fired up today....seriously, chillllllll.

SMH

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CincyOSU's picture

So many DVs for you by 11W community today

Yep, A LOT of people breaking the rules today, Notice, I haven't thrown out a single DV today. What does that say about the DV'ers?

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bd2999's picture

I would read what he wrote again. He just said that people overreact. Which is pretty much a summary of this whole thread. He never told anyone to shut up or anything. It was to the overreactions in general. Which is what he said.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Thank you. You get it. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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IBLEEDSCARLETANDGRAY's picture

Florida is way too high. That's a 4-loss team.

"You're the patron saint of the totally effed" - Hot Tub Time Machine

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kiester's picture

Amen. That game last week was atrocious, they were lucky that Miami was just bad enough for them to beat. 

That scUM team is a 4 loss team too. 

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aj99's picture

We seem ranked pretty high for losing a hof coach and 5th year qb. We lost a lot and we're still pretty high. Probably correct. MI on the other hand lost a whole defense and coaching staff and they're still hi. Probably incorrect ranking for them. Connelly's system seems meh at best. It's just another way for the wankers at espn to get clicks and ad revenue.

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bd2999's picture

I am honestly not sure what Michigan lost. I mean I know some high profile guys but they also return a fair number of guys too. They kept their defensive coaching in most areas in tact (lost the DL and LB coach). The offensive coordinator role is being seen as an upgrade.

Their performance over the last five years is mostly lackluster and their recruiting ranking has been solidish. Although not elite.

They are probably overvalued, but I am not sure the ding OSU takes for losing Meyer and getting an unproved head coach. It will shake itself out.

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oztintacius's picture

If Michigan is going to be good they're going to have to use the strength of their team - QB and the WRs - and outscore some people.. Their defense can't stop good offenses because "Dr. Blitz" is a one trick pony.

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ohiopanda's picture

Just another reason why preseason rankings of teams and schedules are pointless. Same with metrics based on previous seasons and supposedly educated guesses.

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IloveSaturdays's picture

This ranking is just an esecpn circle jerk with no metrics involved. Sec ..err espn just wants to bring down ohio state! SP+ rankings are formed when Pauuul FBomb gives nick satan a bag of esecpn cash! Ohio State needs to leave the ncaa and start their own league. 

I have to return some videotapes

-Pat Bateman

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Port Richey Buckeye's picture

How drunk was he putting this shit together? Florida ahead of us? Bwahahahaha

Fuck eSECpn and fuck Mythigan.

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I_Run_The_Dave's picture

Our defense was crap last year and if Fields doesn't pan out, we could be really really bad this year.  We like to think our defense will be fixed and that Fields will be 90% as productive as our offense last year (which couldn't score in the red zone if their life depended on it).  Anyone thinking we should be ranked higher by anyone or anything is honestly difficult to justify.

Having us at 7 is basically a function of our recruiting being excellent with the rest of the pre-season metrics being completely uncertain.  7 is fine.

Your signature will be publicly displayed at the end of your comments.

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SackMan's picture

Yeah our defense was crap last year and we still finsihed 13-1 with a Rose Bowl win and a B1G Championship. Florida, on the other hand, finished 10-3 with 3 home losses by 10+ points.

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I_Run_The_Dave's picture

And we are breaking in a new QB and key pieces of our OL and also have a new head coach.  So my point stands that we are a giant question mark right now.

Your signature will be publicly displayed at the end of your comments.

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wojodta's picture

The SP+ rankings are never that useful. I'm not even sure why people waste time putting them together. It's not unusual for 3 and 4 loss teams to be ahead of 1 loss teams by season's end. I think it's largely based on stats rather than reality. Losses don't hurt teams as long as their stats stay decent.

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UrbzRenewal's picture

If the numbers indicate that a 3 or 4 loss team would beat a 1 loss team, they'll be ranked higher than them. 

Similar to Ohio State finishing 1st in the 2015 season, despite missing the playoff. SP+ indicates that Ohio State probably would've won the NCG. 

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Independence Village 22's picture

Flawed logic is flawed. Rank 10 sec teams in the top 25 every year for 5 years straight. Calculate all those great losses to top 25 teams over a 5 year period. Use the losses as a positive to now rank 9 teams into the top 17. Folks wont fully get the point untill a 2-loss sec team steals a playoff spot from a deserving B1G champ. Georgia being ranked 5th ahead of us last year really didn't wake anyone up. Wait until the metric says to put 2-sec and 2-acc teams into the playoff. These are the type of self fulfilling bullshit metrics that will be used to justify bullhornin for that 2nd playoff spot. If Georgia didn't try that fake punt last year against Bama and held on to win by a couple points both Oklahoma and Ohio state would have been watching 2 sec teams in the playoffs. I kinda wish that would have happened so folks could get a jump on what's what. Maybe this year? We almost have to go undefeated and I'd bet my first born a 1 loss Georgia and a 1 loss Bama are both getting in. Stage has been set, folks just haven't caught all the way on.

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UrbzRenewal's picture

SP+ is one of the best predictive models in CFB. It doesn't say which teams should go where. It predicts who would win on the football field/against the spread. 

For reference, Ohio State finished 6th in 2018, 2nd in 2017, 10th in 2016, 1st in 2015, and 4th in 2014. 

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BrewstersMillions's picture

For people who claim they hate ESPN, they sure do talk about them a lot 'round these parts.

Why are people so obsessed with ESPN?

Proudly dispensing unbridled arrogance since 1983.

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johnblairgobucks's picture

You've been on this site long enough, you know the drill. If you haven't figured it out by now, you never will, lol.

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PsyBuck's picture

Considering the fact that the only reason we're #7 is because of lack of experience at QB, I'd say we're poised to make a return to the CFP because I think Fields is gonna easily be a top 5 QB even in his first year.

"No we don't give a da*n 'Bout the whole state of *ichigan"

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OSU56's picture

Typical ESECPN.....Fake News here

Enjoying daily the 62-39 ttun beatdown.

 

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CincyOSU's picture

You do understand, Connelly’s just joined ESPN a few months ago. His methodology hasn’t changed. Your claim of fake news is fake news. 

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osu992's picture

Don't fall victim to fake news?

New Day for OSU. Same noon for TTUN.

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Fatpants's picture

You do realize you get called out so much because you can’t help yourself from falling into the same trap every time, right? 

And when you fall into said trap, it doesn’t make you look like a defender of logic and reasoning, but a puppy coming when he’s called to sit up and bark?

PG <3 PG

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CincyOSU's picture

Couldn’t you call the same people who cry about ESPN all day every day “puppies” as well? 

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johnblairgobucks's picture

We could all do a lot of things, Cincy. Sometimes we could just let others have their options on stuff, here, in these forums, without the need to log in to tell them they are wrong or dumb, or deflecting or whatever.
It's not a matter of intelligence or right/wrong, everytime, some users just join in the discussion to share opinions. Lot of times its light hearted stuff.
Hey, it's almost gameday.

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CincyOSU's picture

Hey, it's almost gameday.

A-freaking-men

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SilverHaven's picture

Mahalo for moderating, John.  We share, we laugh, we form a brotherhood bond.

Ua Mau ke Ea o ka 'Aina I ka Pono. The life of the land is preserved in righteousness. (Hawai'i state motto) Aloha nui kakou.

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kiester's picture

UC falls in at #44; not a bad week 2 opponent. 

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JeremyJ3028's picture

Jesus Christ. Fuck ESPN. Fuck S&P+, Fuck Sagarin. Fuck the SEC. Fuck the conspiracy bullshit. It’s no conspiracy. It’s fucking common sense that only takes five minutes of viewing to surmise they slant hardcore to the southeast.

It ain’t rocket surgery. I honestly could careless about the bias because their programming sucks and most of the talking heads are arrogant asshats. If my opinion triggers you and you feel the need to wear Google out to copy and paste “facts” to make yourself appear like an authority...get over yourself, go back to your safe space and let’s get ready to let a season of real football determine who’s the best.

I digress. FYI...ESPN took the shot at Kennedy and all their sportscasters have Area 51 keycards. Conspiracy. I said it. Go Bucks!!! Stomp the swamp owls!

Be a good person but don’t waste your time trying to prove it.  #MeNeither #HarbaughOrDeath

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Beantown_Buckeye's picture

Is surgery being performed on rockets now? Sorry, couldn't help myself.

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NorthPoleBuckeye's picture

I stopped reading when he said Florida was a top 10 caliber team. What does that make Miami, 12th?

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SilverHaven's picture

Wow. Will Cincy learn a new tune?  And will the moderators learn to moderate?
Hov, where are you?

Ua Mau ke Ea o ka 'Aina I ka Pono. The life of the land is preserved in righteousness. (Hawai'i state motto) Aloha nui kakou.

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CincyOSU's picture

I’ll learn a new town when others do the same. 

The MODS are moderating, for the most part(don’t agree with some of it, but not an easy gig). Or are you looking for censorship?

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SilverHaven's picture

The -DV here is not me. Aloha.

Ua Mau ke Ea o ka 'Aina I ka Pono. The life of the land is preserved in righteousness. (Hawai'i state motto) Aloha nui kakou.

HS