Breaking Down the AP Poll

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BrutusB's picture

I thought the second point was the most interesting.  If I had a wager a guess on that being true this year then one of the Pac 12 teams (UW, Oregon or Utah) making the playoff would make the most sense.

HS
Byaaaahhh's picture

Wrt point #1, isn't it still possible for them to just switch spots and satisfy that trends? Wouldn't be in the same order, but they'd still be in the top 2 spots.

HS
BrutusB's picture

That's actually only happened 5 times (two of them being Bama/Clemson in 16 and 18).  So history very strongly suggests its unlikely.

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Byaaaahhh's picture

Idk, college football feels more stratified as of late; while I wouldn't expect it 50 years ago, I don't have a hard time seeing that happening nowadays. Plus it happening twice in the last three years seems potentially significant. 

HS
analyticalguy's picture

Things are definitely more stratified now than there was OVER 50 years ago . There was definitely more "churning" season to season back then among the teams/conferences that evolved into the power 5.

By the 1979s, however, the stratification had already begun, with OSU, UM, ND, PSU, USC, Bama, OU, Texas and Nebraska emerging as the top tier for a while. Over time, teams joined the top tier, either briefly for just a few years or for longer periods - Pittsburg, Miami, FSU, LSU, Tennessee, Fla, VaTech, Oregon - while other teams dropped out.

What has happened very recently - with Bama and Clemson at the top, followed by Ohio State, and then by maybe Georgia and Oklahoma - feels different with a seeming ultra top tier emerging, but it will take the passage of a few more years to determine whether this is actually different from other short periods in the past (where a Nebraska or a Miami was at the top).

So, in short, a 50 -year period to look for patterns may be reasonable.

HS
bd2999's picture

I suppose, but at the moment it is hard for me to think that there are teams better than Alabama and Clemson at the moment. Clemson has a question of where do they fall if they lose a game, does it matter? Alabama is in with a loss, just the way it is. But the ACC being not seen as very strong hurts Clemson. Not sure if they are as bad as last year, but still not great.

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wkfan's picture

This is precisely why there should not be a poll until about week 5.

It puts those ranked lower, or not ranked at all and have a great season at a disadvantage of having to overcome over-rated teams that happen to be at the top who do not drop as long as they win....regardless of the opponent or closeness of the score.

HS
tcm1968's picture

At least one of the top 10 will finish unranked

Go Bucks!

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JimmyVanP's picture

To go along with the posted trends, I can see Florida falling out of the poll. I can also see Oregon either making the playoff or missing it with 1 loss but winning their bowl game and finishing top 4.

"I feel ready for whatever awaits me on the other side. I don’t fear adversity. I don’t fear the spotlight. I don’t fear success. And I don’t fear failure." - Braxton Miller

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Keze's picture

So you are saying the CFP committee really pays attention to polls

Now they should just look at the games played this year before they come out with their first ranking and pay no attention to these so called polls.

WTF

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Port Richey Buckeye's picture

MYTHigan will finish unranked. After getting beat by Army the descent will begin.

Fuck eSECpn and fuck Mythigan.

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RunEddieRun1983's picture

A few things I thought:

1. I don't know if Notre Dame is necessarily "overrated," that's a talented roster, but looking at their schedule, no way they finish with less than 3 losses. They won't be top 10 by the end of the year.

2. Georgia is a PS top 3 for me, but there's no way they're there in the end. The East is going to be pretty decent this year, I think Florida gives them a ton of trouble, Auburn will be a tough test. I think they could smoke ND, but that remains to be seen as well.

3. LSU is going to start the season 4-0 and probably leap frog Ohio State and Oklahoma. They'll beat Texas (more on them later) and that will help them to "arrive" in the national scene (as if they needed to anymore) and their defense is going to be NASTY.

4. Texas is not a top 10 team. They've got a nice offense, not great, and they have an awful defense. I think they were 110th in the country last year in pass defense? Please... Spare me. I don't care how good they are on offense, their secondary is a leaky faucet that can't stop anyone.

5. Michigan is overrated, period.

That's all I have off the top of my head, but I think at least 1 of Clemson or Bama are there in the end. If i had to put money on it I would say Clemson since their schedule is so easy.

Urban Meyer left an incredible legacy. 12/4/18 Ryan Day begins his.

HS