Wait, I thought OSU’s schedule was awful? Can we not run with that narrative anymore?
This is definitely where I parked my car.
OOC is awful. That's the narrative, not that the whole season is awful. And we're being honest the OOC is super soft and really the whole month of September is soft. Which is totally fine with me given a new QB, new defensive staff, and a first time HC.
I think by the time the season is over Cincinnati will be a top 25 team as well.
I don't buy one goddam drop of gas in the state of Michigan!
No offense but i doubt it. They lost a lot from last year and could very easily start 0-2 and if they don't get moving quickly they have UCF and Houston before half the season is over. Likely 3-3 or 4-2 at best. I fully expect year 2 of Chip Kelly to be much better.
UC returns 14 starters and they return 89% of their passing production, 96% of their rushing production and 75% of their receiving production. The defensive linemen they lost will hurt most. I don’t expect them to have as good of a record as they had last year, but I wouldn’t brush them off either.
Sorry i was talking mostly about the defense. They lost a good chunk of the defense. I know the offense is mostly returning but the offense didn't really lead them to 11 wins it was the defense. Also i didn't say they would be bad or we should write them off. Someone mentioned they figured they'd be ranked at end of the season which I in turn doubted. The schedule doesn't set up well for them is all. probably an 8 win team maybe 9 but that's the ceiling in my opinion. They have a tough OOC schedule and the beginning of the season is challenging even in conference.
Fair enough... the back 7 of the defense brings back a lot, but losing the three defensive lineman up front will hurt them the most. They’re only returning 66% of their tackles, 48% of their TFLs, and 42% of their sacks but they do return 92% of their interceptions from last year.
I’m hoping that the combination of Fick/Freeman’s coaching will be able to fill that void in the beginning of the season. I’d be happy to get through the first 6 games at 4-2 because I only see one, possibly two losses in the back half. For me, 9-3 with the potential for a 10th win at the end of the season would be a good year. I’m hoping for 11-1 with a conference championship, but I’ll take what I can get when it comes to UC.
I get it, but i'm just looking at it without any bias and i see a 6 game gauntlet with UCLA, OSU, (Miami, Marshall Yawn) then Houston,UCF and ihave a hard time seeing them start off 4-2. Really more like 2-4 or 3-3 and that's nothing to scoff at if they come out 3-3. I'm personally high on CK being able to get more out of his second season at UCLA.
I’ve yo-yo’d between 11-1 all the way to 7-5. I think my faith in Fickell has me leaning more towards 9-3/8-4 range. If this was Tubberville or Butch Jones I wouldn’t be as optimistic. I’m also interested to see how Holgerson and Carey do in their first years. I know Memphis will be tough to end the season.
Damn. They fired Fickell already?
The AD department couldn’t fit a big team into this schedule because of conflicts, I’m not sure what you want from them. The next 10 years are loaded with top teams.
This is the hardest conference schedule they have had in a long time. They will have plenty of challenges this year.
Did I say it was a problem? No i think it works out pretty well for the team given all the new variables. But the fact the AD couldn't fit a big team in for OOC doesn't change the fact that the OOC schedule is weak. Like it's just a statement of fact and it's not really a narrative. Some of our posters take the weak OOC mentions as media saying the whole schedule is weak. It's not but it's not exactly murderers row.
It's not awful. Awful would be FCS teams and no good OOC opponents. Cincy checks in at #34 in the AP poll, which is a few spots below Northwestern (30th).
There are 0 marquee games on the schedule OOC hence it's weak. There are 0 P5 teams on the schedule OOC hence it's weak. That's the point, not that UC is a pushover or that our BIG10 schedule is weak it's just about lack of quality team outside of the conference. We will have to be undefeated this year or a close loss to a good team in order to have a shot at the playoffs.
It’s not going to happen.
In other words, like an SEC team right?
Some of you that DV just because someone speaks a little honesty are pathetic. The schedule is weak get over it. OOC it just is. Miami (Ohio) might as well be an FCS team. There are literally FCS teams better than some of these Group of 5 programs out there. Meaning i think a lot of the Group of 5 programs and FCS aren't that far apart in quality.
I’m in your corner Snake. It’s not a blockbuster OOC schedule
Don't stop there. Sagarin and others had some FCS teams ranked above Oregon State and Rutgers, two of OSU's opponents last year.
"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott
You can not overlook Cincinnati. That could be a fatal mistake.
I can overlook them all day and it still wont have an impact on the game.
Until they get some overall talent and depth, I'm not concern about Cincinnati.
How much depth did Iowa and Purdue have when they beat out asses?
Says who? Cincinnati, with a bunch of Ohio kids that have a chip on their shoulder will be tough. Miami and FAU? Not really. But you still have to play.
Still trying to figure out the love for Georgia..
Pigskins & Porkrinds
They just signed multiple top 3 ranked recruiting classes. It’s ok to admit they should be really good.
I really don't get it either. They lost by 20 to a good (not great) LSU team, choked once again against Bama, and got shellacked by a 4 loss Texas team. 2 wins over FCS teams and no titles.
Now imagine the narrative if Ohio State had the same kind of season. Do you think we would still be ranked in the top 5?
I mean that's a close enough comparison to our 2013 season and we were top 5 entering 2014.
"Medicine is not a science" - Leo Spaceman
Not quite. 2013 had 2 losses. One by 10 points in the Big Ten championship and by 5 in the bowl game. No real bad losses. Of course any loss by an SEC team to another SEC team gets extra credit.
My point was more around losing the championship game and then the bowl game after (as in close enough - not exact). After a terrible ending to 2013 we were rewarded in the '14 preseason because the poll is forward looking and takes into account the strength of recent recruiting classes. Georgia's the same way this year. Don't think either team was or is being treated unfairly in the respective rankings.
Trying to recall...how did we do in that 2014 season again???
I think we did alright, not sure, don't quote me on that.
"If Chase Young is truly bigger than I think he is and taller than I think he is, he would probably have to be the literal Predator because I've seen him with my own two eyes and I personally think he's pretty damn Sasquatchian." - Kevin Harrish
I mean, we lost by 29 to a terrible team, got dragged to OT by a 5-7 team and only beat a 4-8 by 5. But I don’t think any of us are arguing we should be any lower.
Preach Brutus Preach.
Anyone w/ a football brain larger than a pea, can see that the bad D was all on Greg Schiano.
Yet it doesn't explain why the Day led offense couldn't muster more than 2 TD's and took all the way until the 4th quarter to get them against a defense that ranked 113th in the country...
Yet it doesn't explain why the Day led offense couldn't struggled for much of the game against the 94th ranked defense last season.
Most of the problem was with Schiano and he's gone. Hopefully the combo of new coaches can turn it around even though i don't trust Mattison. But the problems weren't all defense. Offense can take some blame in the other games as well. If the team was perfect they'd be 15-0 like Clemson. ALWAYS room for improvement.
Was it mostly defensive issues? Yes but the offense had issues
I would say that throwing for 470 yards against Purdue, when the next highest total was 378 by Auburn, should have been more than good enough.
The 2nd game you are talking about is Nebraska? We beat their average points (30.0) and yards (458.0), so I don’t see what the problem is?
It is ridiculous to try and nitpick what was the 4th best Offense in the country.
470 yards and only 20 points to show for it. Total yardage is a pretty stat but at the end of the day the objective is to get the ball across the goal line and OSU couldn't do it.
Yes i was, sorry i didn't realize until afterward i didn't put the teams names down but nice job figuring it out. We beat their average points by 6.... at home... with the "4th best offense" in the country. 4th best shouldn't beat the 94th ranked offense by only 6. Mediocre teams could score 30 on them. TTUN scored like 40 something and we both know how pathetic that offense really is.
No it's not. OSU should be in the business of competing for NC every year but they don't because of dumb stuff like that. It's not ESPN or the committee ganging up on them it's stupid stuff like that. Which ends up giving the committee the opportunity to keep them out. So you can hold onto the blind homerism and ignore flaws all you want. I don't i prefer perfection you prefer a level just above mediocrity.
You got me, the 4th-best O and an average of 1.1 losses/season is mediocrity.
That offense struggled against mediocre teams at times. I get your point.
But losing by 4 td's to BAD teams is the reason OSU didn't have a shot at the playoffs and ultimately a NC. When Bama lost in 2017 they lost a closer game to a team that finished in the top 10 as their lone loss. Same thing with Oklahoma lone loss to a ranked Texas team on a neutral field
Finishing in the top 5 annually is competing for NC. Keep it up and the playoff appearances and Championships will come. I feel sorry for those of you that haven't been able to enjoy the past 4 years.
I'm not as sure as you about that. Schiano had proven himself before last year. I'm looking harder at Grinch or possibly it was just the combination not working with the two of them. But I couldn't be happier Grinch is at OK now.
Scarlett & Gray > Blue and Gold
They are the Michigan/Wisconsin of the SEC.
More like Wisconsin. Georgia, like Wisconsin, at least gets to the conference championship game
That's a Buckeye touchdown!
I think this is the right time to mention that UM hasn't won a Big Ten Title since 2004.
One win over an FCS team: Austin Peay.
Middle Tennesee plays in Conf-USA and UMass is an FBS Independant. Not saying they're great, just not FCS. BTW, both of them had higher F/+ Ratings than Oregon State last year.
Recruiting has been top notch for them and they have been a play or two away from beating bama the last two seasons. In the end they have come up short but it's not unreasonable to have them that high.
Same here, call me when they actually beat Bama for once.
Funny, people say the same about OSU and Clemson. Glass houses and all.
We would have drop-kicked Clemson in 2017, 2015, 2014 and 2012.
2016 was by far our worst team in Urban’s tenure. 2013 could have gone either way.
WoUlD'Ve DrOp KiCkEd ClEmSoN iN 2017 bUt DiDn'T gEt To PlAy ThEm CuZ wE lOsT 2 gAmEs 1 To Ok AnD aNoThEr To IoWa By 31.
2015 bad loss to MSU at home against a backup QB.
2012 went undefeated but it was by far not pretty.
Shutup already. The delusion in you sometimes is unreal and you blast TTUN for that shit.
No need to make a comment like that 64.
As for 2015, had our name been Alabama...we would have been in the CFP without question.
2012 was not pretty but we would have beaten ND for the NC that year.
Everything I post is based on probabilities, trends and statistics. You mocking me for being a blind homer, actually shows how much you are a blind pessimist.
Go look up the math and tell me how Clemson had a superior team in 17, 15, 14, 13 and 12?
I wouldn't be too confident about 2012. It's debatable, I also don't think either OSU or ND had any business trying to tussle with Bama that year.
No not everything you post is "probabilities, trends, and statistics" it's homerism at it's finest. I see your posts constantly and i just roll my damn eyes.
2014-2015 yea I'll give you those two years for sure. Most talented team in the country by far but losing to MSU you're out i'm sorry. BACKUP QB i think you keep missing that part. As talented as that team was they looked sloppy and didn't play up to the potential that year and hell if they had gotten into the playoffs in 2015 it wouldn't have changed. If you want an example i'll give you 2014 FSU. They went undefeated but looked ugly the whole season and didn't look like a championship team. They got into the playoffs and quickly got whipped by Oregon 59-20. Same thing that would've happened to OSU vs anybody. It's what happened in 2016 too.
And i really hope you realize you just made my WHOLE point. 2013 OSU and Clemson played each other and CLEMSON WON THE GAME. How are you going to tell me OSU was better that year when the lost to CLEMSON in an ACTUAL game. You literally hurt my brain.
You really think Clemson was better in 2012?
2013 was close, but tOSU analytically had the better team. In a 10-game series, tOSU likely wins 5-6 times. Using the one-game logic, Iowa and Purdue were better as well. Would you really bet them straight up? Btw I’m not completely one-sided, I think Bama in 2014 wins that game 6-7/10.
I think 2012 was a tossup. I know we went undefeated but there were honestly a ton of holes and it was a bumpy ride. Granted a lot of players left the year before because of tatt gate.
Correct me if i'm wrong but isn't the "what if" or "if we played 10 times we'd win most of the time" a whiny TTUN fan thing? That's what you're doing right now. Pretty sure i heard that a lot in 2016 and ever from some of them last year because they thought they had the better team. As did a lot of people here. The only game that matters is the ONE that's actually played and Clemson beat us. Plain and simple stop doing mental gymnastics to make your pride feel better. It's ok.
2016, 2017, 2018 all Clemson and there is no question. OSU lost games they had no business losing so no i will not pick them against an elite team like Clemson. 2016 they might have lost to Pitt but it was by 1 point not 31. 2017 they may have lost to the Cuse but it was by a field goal not 29. That's a big difference for me. Any OSU team qb'd by JT was not going to beat that Clemson defense and BV.
Obviously Iowa and Purdue are not the better teams and no i would not bet them straight up. But the fact they won those games by 4+ td's is the exact reason even as a fan i cannot fathom endorsing them for a playoff spot.
In 2015 Clemson was better than OSU statistically. The Tigers would've been picked to win by at least a FG. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feiplus
In 2013 Clemson proved they were the better team that night in the Orange Bowl.
Navy, I thought in the past you have stated S&P+ is a superior metric to FEI. So I wonder why you would use F+ to make your point here?
tOSU had a 23% edge in S&P+, while Clemson only had a 12% edge in F+.
As for the betting aspect, I am sure that you realize Sports books don’t set lines based solely on how good the teams are. Clemson was clearly better in 2016, yet tOSU was favored. In 2015, if the line had been tOSU +3, the Public would have pounded the Buckeyes.
We weren’t better than Miami in 2002, or Bama in 2014. Yes, Clemson gets all the credit for winning the Orange Bowl, but that doesn’t mean they own tOSU based off of that year. Now 2016, there is no defense for that. My point is that we might have put a beating on them in 2017, 2015, 2014 or 2012, and the narrative magically changes.
I do favor S&P+, which is why I went with the 3-point spread. It’s exactly the difference in their projected scores against an average team (Clemson 27.4 - OSU 24.0). FEI has the spread larger and had OSU ranked #4 in 2015.
2013’s defense was bad. They were no match for Clemson’s WR screens.
In 2014, prior to the Sugar Bowl, OSU & Bama we’re almost dead even in F/+. Ohio State had a slight edge in Special Teams according to FEI.
Been that way for years. Smart got them a little further than Richt did but it feels like for over a decade I’ve seen all sorts of pre-season attention given to Georgia that they never live up to (though last season they came close).
I think part of it is still an SEC bias. That a very good SEC school is better than an elite school in other conferences. Recruiting classes, yeah, they get some great recruits. So do USC and Oregon but it doesn’t get them the same sort of love after under-achieving year after year.
"Woody would have wanted it that way"
Richt had a Stafford/Moreno team in 2008 that was preseason #1, and finished 9-3.
2004 #3 9-2
2013 #5 7-5
2018 #3 11-2
UGA has yet to be ranked in the preseason Top-5, and then not go on to lose multiple regular season games. They have always been overhyped, except when they just flat out sucked in the 90’s.
If you don’t know why the love for Georgia then you don’t follow recruiting and CFB
Interesting that Northwestern isn't ranked.
I feel that Ohio State’s schedule looks a little tougher than it did before, now that we know rankings.
vs. Cincinnati (RV)
@ #24 Nebraska
vs. #18 Michigan State
@ Northwestern (RV)
vs. #19 Wisconsin
vs. #15 Penn State
@ #7 Michigan
7/12 opponents receiving votes, with 5 of them actually being ranked. Things can change, but I think it's clear that this team will be tested throughout the year.
And Toledo still sucks.
Northwestern is always undervalued. The never LOOK like a team that should be top 25 but when the get out there and play they prove differently.
Penn State is greatly Overrated. They lost SO MUCH talent and have a terrible coach.
NW is just too inconsistent to ever get an accurate read on. Last year you could look at some of their wins (Iowa, Wisconsin) and argue they should get more respect. But you could also look at some of their losses (Akron, Duke) and day they have no business being ranked. So I can’t blame voters for having trouble placing them.
Any other teams you want to shit on? Of course you got the Buckeyes out of the way 1st.
Somebody still hasn't had their coffee? Move the time table up man, it's already past noon
Northwestern is ranked 30th. A road win over Stanford will definitely boost them into the top 25 in week 2.
Ohhhh baby, we're close! Death to the offseason!
I never saw a football player make a tackle with a smile on his face - Woody
Leave one wolf alive....and the sheep are never safe
I'm gonna say at least 5 of these teams are no longer ranked come December
There’s a great article on the Athletic (paywalled, or else id link) that basically says exactly that. Over the past five years, 50 teams that were in the preseason poll finish unranked, including 15 that finished with a losing record. USC, Florida State, and VT were in the latter category last year.
Yep. One more reason I really don't care for preseason polls.
I actually had a Bama fan try to claim the 2017 FSU game as a "ranked win" for them.
Funny thing is that in every other endeavor it is always about where things end and not what it was during the journey.
I'll see your 5, Spivan, and raise you 2. 7 of those teams won't be ranked in the final AP Poll of the season.
You're probably right.
Just for discussion's sake what 7 would you pick? I got Syracuse and Washington State, and I honestly don't know much about either team and what they return. I'm struggling to pick any more, even though I know it's likely more will drop out.
Well now. That’s going out on a limb
In the mix.
Got M...igan gossip? Bang it here.
Looks about right to me, but maybe I just can’t muster up any outrage over a preseason poll.
This only means football in close.
Feed the trolls
Just a fun exercise, amount of ranked teams by conference:
B1G - 7
SEC - 6
PAC 12 - 4
BIG XII - 3
ACC - 2
Exactly. Now for once, can we have a B10 West Division champ be in the top 10 come playoff selection time. I know you guys dont me saying it, but thats the benefit GA and Bama have gotten.
Well the big ten west champ needs to have a good season then. They finished in the top 10 on selection Sunday in 2015 and 2017.
The benefit for other top 7-8 teams is they didn’t have a 30 point loss
Whatever dude. It’s reality!!
Impossible. There's a national media conspiracy against Ohio State and the Big Ten, haven't you heard?
Not sure about the Big Ten as a whole but there truly is a major bias against Ohio State. Our fan base and football team are two of the most hated in the country.
The media bias, IMO, is more about getting clicks on an article. Talk trash about Ohio State and let the clicking begin!
Blah blah blah with the media bias crap.
The ACC needs to put out an APB for FSU, Miami, VaTech....it’s similar to watching USC UCLA Nebraska and ND lose its relevance in college football.
The top of the rankings is definitely a no-parity zone. The top 5 teams include three playoff teams from last season, the national runner-up from the previous season, and the two-time defending Big Ten champion and "last team out" of the playoffs in consecutive seasons.
Still don't get how Michigan is ranked ahead of Florida, the team that blew them out in the Peach Bowl.
The most "loud mouth, disrespect" poster on 11W.
Florida lacks a preseason Heisman winner.
I just don't see Franks even in the conversation by mid October.
Michigan is more talented
Meaningless poll - but also some good correlation here for Ohio State.
Since 2004, every national champ was ranked among AP preseason top 7 teams except in 2013 (FSU started at No. 11) & 2010 (Auburn started at No. 22). So who’s this year’s national champ?
5 Ohio St
That #5 team
IDK, but I do know who ISN'T this years' champ! Because one of these things is not like the others.....
Yep. Not even as hard as finding Waldo ;)
And then those teams only won bc they had a QB come out of the woodwork and win a Heisman.
The teams who fit that criteria (non true-FR unknown QB surrounded by a talented roster) this year:
AUB - Joey Gatewood
PSU - Sean Clifford
Wouldn't say that Scam Newton came out of the woodwork. More like who would pay his Dad the most money for his services...
I would say Cam took the Media completely by surprise, when they ranked AUB #22 and he didn’t even have 100-1 Heisman odds.
Clemson til proven otherwise.
That seems spot on.
Scott Frost hype train going full speed ahead lol.
I'm on that train.
Hoping Cincinnati has a big year outside of week 2. That well help bolster the resume.
Noon games suck
I’m going to be rooting hard for Fickell week 1 vs UCLA.
And for Fitz! Opening weekend has a few nice games.
I like having this many ranked teams on our schedule but it's going to suck when Penn State has a couple losses by the time we play them.
While you can imagine some of our teams being a bit higher by the time we play them, I can see a couple dropping significantly as that usually happens with Big Ten teams.
Hopefully our SOS looks this good by the end of the year. If Michigan pulls it together they could potentially be top 5 when we play them.
To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift.
In the words of Al Davis “Just win baby!”
Screw UM. We just need to keep winning.
Texas should be #3, Michigan #4 and Nebraska #10.
Take care of business and the playoffs await.
It's cool that half the B1G teams are ranked. But how can anyone honestly say Penn State is a top 15 team, or that Sparty and Nebraska deserve to be ranked?
Tom Brady lost to John Cooper. Never forget.
Media is in love w/ Bachie+Willekes, and ignores the fact that the rest of the roster is basically Indiana.
Take it to the bank that Nebraska doesn’t finish better than 7-5.
Sure Tracy is gone, but I think most are sleeping on their defense. They were really good last year, even though they were so young. Plus they have a lot of talent now.
Add in if NWestern beats Stanford on 8/31, its a ranked opponent win and an 8th B10 team in AP top 25.
NW needs that win bc their September schedule is brutal.
Both LSU and Ohio State will start out 4-0
LSU will jump Ohio State, and potentially Oklahoma on the strength of a win vs. Texas.
Doesn't matter, just win, take care of business.
Urban Meyer left an incredible legacy. 12/4/18 Ryan Day begins his.
Then when Texas goes 8-4, the SEC will still get credit for a “Top-10” win.
I do actually hope LSU beats Bama this year.
Texas has 4 or 5 losses written all over them, so you're right.
I'll root for Ohio Jeaux against anyone but the Buckeyes, even if it does mean I'm rooting for Ol Ed Orgeron by proxy.
Texas isn’t losing 4-5 games. Not happening. They have 7 slam dunk wins
Teams that lose to Maryland and a 6-6 team two years in a row, don’t have many slam dunk wins.
2 bad losses, a L to LSU and a L to OU = 8-4.
They have 7 slam dunk wins. Quit reliving the Maryland disaster. They finished strong!
Who even buys newspapers anymore?
I get a real kick out of looking at ranking by pollster. As always, Jon Wilner sucks. He has us at 12, TTUN at 4, and Iowa State at 8.
Mark Whicker is another beauty with us at 14 and Florida at 3.
The last few years have been fairly predictable when it comes to the playoffs race.
I just hope Ohio State makes it in this time, instead of being ranked #5 or 6 on selection sunday.
So media ranks OSU over Michigan but they also say Michigan will win the B10? Ok.
Totally different set of media voters
Penn State, Sparty and Ohio State...I cannot see Michigan coming out of that without losing 2 of 3, so #7 is kind of high in my opinion. I doubt they will be top 15 when January rolls around.
Don't Mess With The Buckeye...It's a Nut That Can Kill You!
Clemson at #1 and Syracuse at #22. Dang the ACC is going to be tough (again) for the Tigers this year.