Best-case Scenario for an OSU Loss in 2019?

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Bucks2K18's picture

Let's just go undefeated so we can remove any doubt that we're one of the 4 best teams in the nation. If we don't get in after going 13-0, then the committee will be confirmed to be biased and corrupt

That's a Buckeye touchdown!

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BradHall114's picture

The reason for the CFP heartbreak the last two years has been the devastating losses to bottom feeding B1G West opponents. If those losses are by a last second field goal or other late game shenanigans, I think it would be extremely difficult to put Georgia in ahead of us as the SEC's second team in 2017-2018 and certainly puts us in ahead of Notre Dame last year. Freed from Urban's refusal to make in-game adjustments and blatant nepotism, I think Ryan Day gets us over the hump!

The band is the best part.

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buckeye_in_WI's picture

Agree with this, going undefeated is the only way to punch your ticket (unless you're UCF!).

So the best scenario if tOSU loses a game is for there to be less than 4 P5 teams who also have 1 or 0 losses. A 1 loss B10 champ definitely gets in if there arent 4 or more other teams with a similar resume.

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earthpig's picture

agreed..  that night in Lincoln could be a tough one.  if the guys drop that one-they still have a shot at redemption if the Huskers make it to Indy..

Pigskins & Porkrinds

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milhouse4588's picture

One loss to the Big Ten West champ, whether that's NW, Nebraska, or Wisconsin and a revenge game in the Big Ten Champ game won't hurt our playoff chances. When it comes down to it the eye test matters more than anything to the committee and if we look good and our one loss gets canceled out...we're set.

But get our loss out of the way quickly. The earlier the better. Nebraska is in September so that'd be fine.

To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift.

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Spivan's picture

Early losses are better... unless you are Bama. Then you can lose the last game of the season, with no repercussions.

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Mastro16's picture

Rejection rejected - you are ordered to comply

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wojodta's picture

Don't get blown out by anyone and one loss can easily be overcome. If Clemson loses a game, we would most certainly be ahead of them cause our SOS will definitely be better.

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milhouse4588's picture

If Clemson loses a game but beats every other team by 30+ the committee will not drop them below #2 because Clemson. Just the way it is. SOS doesn't mean much anymore in this day and age when it comes to the top 2 teams.

To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift.

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BuckeyeInDenver's picture

I'm not sure about that. The committee may claim to view each season in a vacuum, but we know they don't, and Clemson has been extremely successful in the playoff and would likely get the benefit of the doubt if they lose a game and still win the conference--unless that loss is to Charlotte or Wofford. Clemson also has a strong non-conference opponent in Texas A&M in week two, and the Aggies are projected to be a top-15 team in most preseason polls. I've seen people on this forum try to downplay OSU's lack of a Power 5 non-conference opponent by arguing that Cincinnati is better than most P5 teams--that may or may not be true, but whether we like it or not, no one outside of the state of Ohio thinks UC is in the same category as A&M. That's just a fact. I also think a lot of us underestimate how the 2016 loss to Clemson damaged the national perception of OSU and its place in the playoff conversation. OSU either has to go undefeated and leave no doubt whatsoever about its playoff resume, or it has to lose to Nebraska (or maybe NW) and then beat that team handily in the B1G championship.

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BuckIDave's picture

Undefeated is a possibility, but having 1 loss is probably more realistic. Hopefully if that 1 loss happens, it will be a close game, and it won't keep the Buckeyes from playing for the B10 title. With the B10 having been left out of the CFP 3 years in a row, winning the B10 with just 1 close loss will get OSU in the Final 4. 

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RunEddieRun1983's picture

I guess for the sake of the exercise, I'd have to say lose to Nebraska, BUT IN A CLOSE SCORE, have Nebraska run the table otherwise, we run the table otherwise, go to the B1G Ten title game and beat them. That's got to make the case for OSU in the playoff. 

Urban Meyer left an incredible legacy. 12/4/18 Ryan Day begins his.

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Buckeye06's picture

Cincy.

Early in season to a likely top 25 type team with a new HC and new QB. No reason it couldn't play out like 2014 with chance to win big games as the year goes on

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Poco Loco's picture

Buckeye06 this site would crash.

a hard rock miner from Butte, Montana

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BuckeyeInDenver's picture

Sorry, there's no way the committee would forgive a loss to a non-Power 5 team. Again, Cincinnati--right or wrong--is not perceived by non-Ohioans in the same way as Virginia Tech.

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allinosu's picture

This is true. It's early with a new QB and coach and time for each to grow. Best excuse is we have improve greatly since the loss. Plus I would rather lose to Fick than others.  

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Dstacify's picture

If we lose by say, 3 points, to a good Nebraska team on the road and that's our only loss next season we'll be in great shape Playoff-wise next year (though we could still get screwed just like we did in 2015 because the loss to Sparty happened so late in the year and they were our first ranked opponent that season). Above all I just want the annual humiliation of scUM to continue next season in Ann Arbor (I see all hell breaking loose within that program if Harbaugh loses to Day in their first head-to-head matchup).

11 Strong.

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JTFor President2016's picture

Any close loss can be overcome, so long as it isn't to a East team who locks us out of Indy (MSU in 15). Don't freak out about last year. One loss can easily be oversome (OSU was the first 1 loss outright champ to ever be left out of the CFP last season). But getting blown out makes it a different story. Last year also had the least amount of parity since 2003. I don't think we will continue to see multiple undefeated teams. Also Notre Dame. they threw a huge wrench in things. 

Simple as this. Any close loss (two scores or less), to any Big Ten West team, shouldn't kill our chances of getting in. Last year won't repeat itself. 

Elliott dots the eye, on this national championship win. 

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Spartan13's picture

Just here for the jack asses saying WE WONT LOSE

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analyticalguy's picture

Any Power 5 team that wins its conference championship with one loss along the way is probably more likely than not to be in the playoffs. It all depends on what everyone else does, since seldom are there more than 1 or 2 undefeated teams, and the Committee seems to prefer one loss teams to two loss teams, and Champions to non Champions (as they should). I'm guessing a one-loss AAC champ Clemson or an SEC champ will be favored over others, rightly or wrongly. Avenging a sole loss in a conference championship game is a plus, no matter who the opponent. If there are several undefeated teams, though, all bets are off. I'd hate to depend on getting and winning a rematch to make the playoffs. Just win 'em all!

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Bucks's picture

Certainly don't wish it but the best possible loss, IMO would be be a one pointer/last second fg to the deer tick state up north. Caveat to that would be that they have a great year but lose a tiebreaker, putting us in the conference championship which we win resoundingly.

I'll believe any team in the west, is worth a damn when shown on the field. Losing to any of them would be hard to overcome I think.

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Keze's picture

The committee will have  a BIG 10 team in the playoffs this year, it is there for the taking. IMO they will take the winner of the conference championship game.

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Buckeye Chuck's picture

I see the rationale here. A road loss, by a non-blowout margin, to a decent team, early in the season would be the easiest to overcome. 

The most "loud mouth, disrespect" poster on 11W.

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Buckeye_7's picture

In this scenario, losing to Nebraska would look better than to NW. Especially with the press they have been getting from pretty much everyone. They are seen as a program on the rise with one of the best offensive minds and a Heisman Caliber QB. Lets just not lose. problem solved.

Kgruber

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McGrind's picture

Wouldn’t be shocked  to see all the BIG East (and West) with at least one loss. West has stepped it up and Sparty should be back.

ttun 2019 offense...same pig, different lipstick.

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DonTurner's picture

The committee is biased against the B10.  No room for any loss.   

Most importantly,  humiliate the Michigan Mirage Men. 

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BuckeyeInDenver's picture

Is the committee really biased against the B1G? The B1G champ made the playoff in 2014 and 2015, and in 2016, they selected a B1G team that didn't even win its division, let alone the conference. In 2017, the B1G champ had two losses, so they didn't get in. Last season, ND finally went undefeated and we got our shit kicked in by Purdue, so OSU didn't get in. I see no evidence of a bias here.

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Zonabuck's picture

So after defeating NW for the B1G championship, you think we were the #6 team in the country?  Remember, they start each week with a clean slate, watch every bit of every game, and then rank the teams according to who is playing the best at that point in the season. That’s the lens they look through. Allegedly. 

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BuckeyeInDenver's picture

They also take into account each team's entire body of work, and in OSU's case, that body of work included a blowout loss to a mediocre Purdue team. There's some tension between "who are the best four teams at the end of the season" and "which four teams have the best bodies of work by the end of the season", and the committee considers both. There will almost always be more than four teams with an argument to be included in the playoff, but--for now, anyway--there are only four spots in the playoff bracket. Don't want to be on the outside looking in? Don't lose to Purdue by multiple touchdowns.

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Arsenal7's picture

The committee is biased against teams who lose by 29 to Purdue and 31 to Iowa.

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Hovenaut's picture

I'm more of a take-them-one-at-a-time type of guy, but sure there's looking at the schedule ahead.

There's no overlooking anyone, or putting too much into one opponent.

I know I'm tired of losing on the road, in spectacular fashion, to West Division conference foes. So the trips to Lincoln and Evanston have my attention.

I also don't like the fact that the Buckeyes get to close the regular season vs Penn State and at TTUN. Thanks, schedule wizards.

I had to run away high, so I wouldn't come home low...

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GetBuckedUp's picture

Notre Dame being undefeated last year was a real killer to our chances at the playoff. Luckily this year they will play UGA at UGA and I think they will lose that game. If they end up beating UGA, us OSU fans should be rooting t for UM against them this year as well because them losing that game last year kills ND's playoff.

Ultimately, don't get blasted on the road by an unranked team by 30+ points two years in a row.
The games I think we can potentially lose would be at Nebraska and at NW.
Nebraska's QB Martinez is pretty good. Scott Frost is in year two and he knows offense. This game will most likely be a night game and we'll definitely get Nebraska's best. I still think Frost is a year or two away but this game scares me.
Most people forget that NW gained Clemson transfer QB and former 5* Hunter Johnson. Never discount a Pat Fitzgerald team especially when it's a Friday night game.
If we lose close to either one I think we'd be fine, especially if they end up in the BIG10 championship game.

Looking at other teams who have been consistently in the playoff discussion, OU has a pretty favorable schedule. They play at Texas which could be the only real challenge. OU will have Jalen Hurts most likely starting and while he was a winner at Bama, I'm not sure what he will be like at OU.

UGA is always a threat. I think they do have little tougher of a schedule this year than previous years. Florida has shown improvement. I think Texas AM will be better and UGA  plays Auburn at Auburn. I can see them losing one of those plus the SEC champ game against Alabama. 

Clemson and Bama- LOL at the schedules.  Neither team should lose. Bamas toughest test is LSU at home and both teams have byes before they play. Clemsons toughest test is Texas AM. 
I will say if Lawrence goes down for Clemson they could be in trouble. OSU could be in the same boat if we lose Fields.

If you want to root for one out of conference team this year, root for Texas AM. They play UGA, Bama, and Clemson. 

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OhioStGoon's picture

Don't get our asses kicked in a loss.. The last few losses to Iowa and Pur(don't) respectively have directly resulted in us being left out of the CFP. We literally in those losses got our asses kicked from start to finish, why I have no damm clue but any lose better be close and be within at the most a touchdown.

GO BUCKS

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rdalchemy's picture

In case you're all still wondering what this year holds for the Buckeye football team here it is. Undefeated, beating both Clemson and LSU to win it all. You heard it first right here.

Zbuddha

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BuckeyeBulldog's picture

Don't lose late in the season and don't get blown out. I can see OSU getting in with close losses to cincy either Nebraska or northwestern, especially of they were able to avenge their conference loss in the championship game, that's what put Oklahoma in last year. Our non-con doesn't give much room for error but I believe that the committee would forgive a close loss there if we roll through big ten play a la 2014.
I'm not worried about ND this year or the pac 12 again and I trust they wouldn't select a non conference champion (bama or georgia) over a one loss conference champ.

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CedarBuck92's picture

We need to beat everyone by 60+ and hope that all the other conference champs + ND have 1 or more losses

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KCAlum's picture

Being edged by Cinci, would really really suck, but if it is a spur to this team a la the 2014 Va Tech game, it could actually be a positive as it could offset any chances of a letdown against NW or Neb.  It would also be early enough that it could be overcome easily. 

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DeacBuck's picture

Would you rather lose to TTUN and get in the playoff or win and miss the playoff? We'll say each scenario only has one loss.

Go Bucks, Deacs, Panthers, Braves

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BuckeyeInDenver's picture

I would rather miss the playoff.

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