Data Points: Expected Points Added Sheds Light on Ohio State's Elite Receiving Corps

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NorthBerg's picture

Plus one for the archaic Virgil Carter reference.

Too much time spent at the North Heidelberg rather than the classroom. SSD 68-72

HS
SilverHaven's picture

I noted that too; good for Virgil.

And also...
"the down, distance, and field possession are all taken into account."

Is field possession like a home turf advantage?

Ua Mau ke Ea o ka 'Aina I ka Pono. The life of the land is preserved in righteousness. (Hawai'i state motto) Aloha nui kakou.

HS
ibuck's picture

Is field possession like a home turf advantage?

Yeah! This whole thing reminds me of the quote attributed to Mark Twain:

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics!

Our honor defend, so we'll fight to the end !

HS
BuckeyeBen7.7's picture

This is an interesting statistic, one that I personally have never heard of. I love how it puts more importance on gaining ten yards on 3rd and short vs gaining 10 yards on third and long, and similar cases.

I have no idea what the EPA of our running game has been in years past, but the fact that our running game last year averaged a negative EPA is sickening. We literally hurt our chance to score when we ran the ball. I sure hope that is rectified this fall.

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LJ's Ninjas's picture

I can't imagine coach Stud is a fan of this article. While JK and Mike should have some upset stomachs, Stud should be off puking in the corner. Here's to a much improved run game this season!!

Wise men speak because they have something to say; fools because they have to say something.

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MichiganBuckeye222's picture

My uneducated opinion is that by splitting carries, Meyer severely impacted the running game.  

Stick with one guy....the best guy....and ride him.  

If I am right, we should be fine.   

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MichiganBuckeye222's picture

And if I am wrong, I am like all other keyboard cowboys who don’t know s#it

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ibuck's picture

Stick with one guy....the best guy....and ride him.

Historically, most coaches like to have "a pair and a spare." As opposed to a starter and two spares.

Guys tend to be fresher, stronger when they can be spelled for a few plays. 

Our honor defend, so we'll fight to the end !

HS
Yoda888's picture

You have (i) a good point, (ii) it doesn't need to be "right" or (iii) you're "dead wrong".  extremism is the root of all evils and what keeps a good man down.  don't fall prey.  

splitting carries between 2 good RBs generally is a good idea.  less wear and tear, and it's more on the individual (factoring defensive schemes you're going up against, and how you line up, and your blocking scheme, etc...) to outperform.  it's always tough to be the coach when you have 2 good players, and they both obviously want to play.  To paraphrase you, make a decision and stick with it.  There'll always be pundits and critics.  no matter what you do.  but you gotta "just do it."

Yoda888

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Nutinpa's picture

Coach Stud was not a fan of more than this article.  He made it clear, as did the kids who played for him, he was no fan of the Offensive scheme.  Much debate went on within this forum as to whether zone-read or run-pass options should matter when it came to O line blocking technique.  But one thing was for sure.....the O line did not know what to do in the first half of the season.  We can choose to blame who we wish for that reality, but it was obvious.  The other debate that took place was whether an O line could be equally effective at run-blocking as pass blocking.  Because as awful as this team was at run blocking for the first 6 or 7 games, Haskins managed to stay remarkably clean in the pocket for a kid that was not all that mobile.  Bottom line: IMHO, with last year's Offense, we were forced to pick our poison.  

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nickel beer's picture

Thanks for that. 

After those first several games we had an O to watch that, speaking for myself anyway, I haven't seen in a long long time (balls to the wall): the season's money play.

half machine

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nickel beer's picture

Wonder how the TE group would compare to previous years' group.  My impression was that after the early weeks, once the TE group improved its run blocking, the group also improved in terms of receiving not just for the year but also in terms of situational effectiveness compared to previous years.  If the QB can (is able to) exploit his TEs this season ... 

half machine

HS
BuckeyeSki's picture

Leave one wolf alive....and the sheep are never safe

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stpetebuck's picture

Yeah, my Texas Instruments brain struggled with this theoretical string theory Astro  physics  super computer ,  Steve Hawkings article. 

Time for alcohol 

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Txsbuckeye's picture

#TheBuckeyesAgainstTheWorld

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ronaprhys's picture

There are similar statistical comparisons out there - Football Outsiders does a really nice job with the pro stuff.  The problem here is that college teams don't play enough teams in common to get good reads on relative performance, so we're stuck with metrics like this.  Would love to see some DVOA stats within the conferences where we may have enough data points to actually compare common teams.

'97 - Molecular Genetics

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HighStHero's picture

It appeared to me that last year we threw the ball so often and efficently it almost looked like the O-line wasn't comfortable run blocking. (Felt odd just typing that) I really do hope we become more balanced overall and when were on the goal line, we have no issues running the ball in.

Excited to see the pin and pull come back with Field's ability to run!

HS
Run_Fido_Run's picture

It’s a good thing that none of the writers at MGo Blog have posted an article there with “EPA” in the title. They would die of fright before opening the article, thinking that the Environmental Protection Agency was cracking down on their toxic Superfund site of a football program. 

HS
buckeye phi's picture

Yes, if the cow (or in this case, bull) flatulence emitted from Ann Arbor was ever actually quantified, I'm sure the EPA would be all over it. 

It's June - so as usual, at this point they think they'll be in the hunt for the B1G and national championships this season.  And of course, we're only a few months away from hearing all about their latest September Heisman candidate. 

Perhaps they can find some new analytics model to support that narrative.  Or perhaps not -

Good judgement comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement. - Will Rogers

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stpetebuck's picture

Somehow favored to win The Game. Smh 

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MY POP OSU Band Member 1940's's picture

Amazed some people don't get this.  Its as easy as 1-2-4!  Or, 5+5 =11.35.  Anyhow, I am stupid when it comes to numbers

and this article made so sense to my pea brain. "BORING"  is the only word I can think of for this article.  

"There are three kinds of people in the world: those who can count and those who can't."  By someone.

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awlinBrutus's picture

One problem, and it peaked @ msu, Haskins was leaning forward on run plays. It was really obvious. Running game looked pretty good vs SCum. 

MICHIGAN STILL SUCKS

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NOBLUE's picture

i never knew you could score points like that ...2.38 ..4.99..2.61..3.55 ..and all his time i've been following football i thought you could only score 6,3,2 or 1 point at a time....WOW you learn something new all the time about this game.....

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allinosu's picture

Seems to me that getting a 10 yard run from your own one would be just as important as from the opponents red zone. I would take that 10 yard run from the 30 over the other if it was 3rd and 9 with 2 minutes to go and your opponent doesn't have any time outs in a tight offensive football game.

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ARMBuckeye88's picture

Sorry, my Cincinnati Public School education does me no favors in reading this. Can we score, play good D, keep good field position, and beat Bama or Clemson in the Natty?

Da juice ain’t worth the squeeze

HS