CFP Trends After 5 Years

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droessl's picture

Don't get waxed by an average-as-hell B1G West team. 

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JTFor President2016's picture

True, but again, that OSU team makes the playoffs every other year, even with that waxing. That game was probably my biggest motivation into this thread. Had it not been for 3 teams going unbeaten, for the first time since 2004, that Purdue game wouldn't have mattered. 

Elliott dots the eye, on this national championship win. 

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I'm Ron Burgundy's picture

Perhaps, but 2 years in a row a 30 point loss to a mediocre team was a major part of the undoing for OSU.  So I would say not getting blown out by said mediocre teams is now a worthwhile data point.  Also, not having a faux scandal hanging over your program's head in today's culture is worth noting. 

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JTFor President2016's picture

You're definitely not wrong. I didn't consider the Iowa game, because we haven't seen any 2 loss team get in. But I get your point. OU and Clemson lost close games in their upsets. 

Elliott dots the eye, on this national championship win. 

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Steel City Buckeye's picture

You are forgetting that the committee ranked a conference loser in Georgia hirer than OSU in 2018. What made me upset was how Oklahoma was praised for having a slightly hirer performing offense than OSU and an even worse defense than OSU

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JTFor President2016's picture

I just have a feeling, that if it were a battle for the 4th spot, they would've gave the nod to OSU. 

Elliott dots the eye, on this national championship win. 

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CincyBuck's picture

I hate this reasoning.  It critically relies on the premise that the Committee is too incompetent, incapable, or lazy to rank the teams past the first four.  If we reject that premise, it means this reasoning makes no sense.  If we accept it, yikes, why do we have a Committee again?

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JTFor President2016's picture

They had Baylor ahead of TCU alllll season long because they felt Baylor was just better. Then they just flipped them after both teams beat up on bad teams? I definitely think they spend less time ranking past the top 4. I mean why would they? 5-12 have no impact on anything. It is the PERFECT spot for them to "make a statement". But I'm not sold they would "make a statement", if it were for the 4th spot. I'm not bashing the committee, I'm just saying that even I wouldn't care and waste my effort ranking 5-12. 

But even so, my point was that this was the only year we had more than one unbeaten. I was making the trend based on the fact that 2 more teams in front of OSU, would have lost a game in a typical year. 

Elliott dots the eye, on this national championship win. 

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CincyBuck's picture

I mean why would they?

Because it's their job.  If they're not going to do it, then find someone else who will.  Pretty sad we're currently debating whether the Committee -- which determines the Final 4 in a mammoth-sized industry -- can be expected to count past 4.

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JTFor President2016's picture

I'll definitely agree to disagree on the topic (I mean why are we all here if we aren't gonna debate). I just personally feel a few more factors would come into play if the discussion was 4 vs. 5, instead of 5 vs. 6. 

+1 Cincy

Elliott dots the eye, on this national championship win. 

HS
PhillyNut's picture

They can't (or shouldn't) half ass their rankings of 5-12 because (1) 1 through 4 might lose so you have to have some level of support for moving up whichever team you chose into the top 4 and (2) there is a lot of money at stake still for conferences and individual teams for the New Year's Day 6 games and we all know money ultimately drives the bus.

I don't buy one goddam drop of gas in the state of Michigan!

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Steel City Buckeye's picture

There is a lot of money on the line for the new years big 6 bowl games that absolutely give a tremendous amount of value on rankings 5 - 12.

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Ryan.Honeycutt's picture

I like to call the teams ranked 5-15 “resume builders” it is so fricking ridiculous to say that the committee isn’t biased when they rank a 4 loss Texas a&m team 11th... boosts Clemson’s resume Alabama’s resume... Syracuse 3 loss team ranked 12th... another top ranked opponent for Clemson... so now all those FCS schools that Clemson plays don’t look as bad when the tigers have wins over 11 and 12... it’s a lot easier to justify an FCS opponent when you have these “highly ranked wins” on your resume... but a division winner like northwestern drops out of the rankings after a loss to us so that’s 1 less ranked win we have... you want to make the playoffs, schedule 3 FCS school (like SEC and Clemson) make sure one of those games is the week before TTUN, schedule an out of conference game with a power 5 team that loses 90% of their starters from the year before (yeah Alabama, that USC game and Louisville game) play 8 conference games so we don’t have to play that extra cross over game... that means you technically only have to worry about TTUN, maybe PSU, maybe SPARTY, maybe Nebraska if they are a cross over scheduled and maybe Wisconsin if they are also... so you just basically cut your schedule in half... I like those odds a lot better then worrying every week for 12 weeks

RyanPH

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Steel City Buckeye's picture

I would rather OSU play 3 top 10 teams out of conference than make the CFP with three cupcakes on the schedule.

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Ryan.Honeycutt's picture

Trust me steel city, I want to see them go against the cream of the college football crop too... I can’t wait for the year, I think it’s 2022, where two of their non conference games are against Texas and Notre dame... all I was trying to stare was that the scheduling criteria from conference to conference is a joke and needs to be equal... I would hate to see teams like Youngstown state come to the shoe just to blow them out by 50 points... I don’t even like when they play a better G5 team because they man handle them too

RyanPH

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ShowThemOhiosHere's picture

Especially when one of those 3 unbeatens was Notre Dame.  Normally, the playoff is the 4 best champions (or best team as was the case for 2016 OSU) of the Power 5 conferences.  Notre Dame left only 3 spots available.  OSU was the 4th best champion (says the committee, I think they were 3rd best, but whatever).  Had Notre Dame lost and OU been undefeated, OSU still gets in as the clear #4 seed.  ND f'd us as much as a 29 point loss.

Class of 2010.

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Snake64's picture

Notre Dame didn't fuck anyone. They won all of their games which is the point. You win and you're rewarded. The 29 point loss to a team that was barely bowl eligible is what FUCKED us. Same with what fucked use the year before. You can lose a game but you CANNOT get blown out by a BAD to MEDIOCRE team and expect to be considered for a chance at a playoff spot.

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FieldsofJreams's picture

ND was also rewarded for not winning, by dodging a conference championship game.  For all intents and purposes, ND should of had to have played Clemson in the ACC and not the CFP.

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Snake64's picture

ND is independent and doesn't have a conference "Technically" speaking. While i don't agree they should be forced to play in one to get into the CFP because some years their schedule can be brutal because of being an Independent. I do however think it's bull shit they seem to escape playing Clemson every year when they're contractually obligated to play 4 ACC games. 

All that said you're just deflecting about them having to play Clemson before the CFP. OSU should not lose to by 29 to a team that finishes the season 6-7 sorry there is NO argument against it. It's pathetic to try and argue on the teams behalf. 

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FieldsofJreams's picture

I wasn't addressing tOSU, I was replying to your statement that ND was rewarded for winning 12 games.  How can you fairly reward/punish teams when the playing field isn't equal?  ND sat and rested on a bye into the playoffs while all of the other contenders had to risk a 13th game vs. a tough opponent (besides Pitt from the American Conference).

BTW, ND's schedule hasn't been brutal for awhile.  USC is down and they have been playing 5-6 AAC, I mean ACC teams, a year.

Since you keep bringing it up, is a 12-1 CC w/ a 29-point loss automatically disqualified no matter what?  What if:

A. ND 11-1, UGA 11-2, OU 11-2

B. ND 10-2, UGA 10-2, OU 10-3, UCF 12-0 (no Milton)

C. ND 9-3, UGA 10-3, OU 9-3, UCF 12-1 (Milton healthy, UNC not canceled), WSU 10-2

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stxbuck's picture

This. Losing to a quality team once won't hurt you-Bama can attest to this, but getting waxed by Purdue and Iowa-that shows your team-and your team's coaching staff-doesn't have their heads in the game. A team that gets blown out by inferior teams-not just beat in a close game-doesn't deserve to be in the playoff.

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CincyBuck's picture

Not sure which 'Bama team you're referring to.  But, without looking, I still think losing to a good team is more likely to hurt your Playoff chances than losing to a crappy one (e.g., Michigan State in '17).  If we're talking Playoff chances, I'd rather lose to Northwestern this season than PSU, Michigan, etc. 

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JTFor President2016's picture

Exactly, and really my only complaint with how CFB operates. But it has always been that way, and probably always will. 

Elliott dots the eye, on this national championship win. 

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stxbuck's picture

The ones that lost to Ole Miss two years in a row and made the playoff-14', 15'-NC, or the one that lost to Auburn-17'-and won the NC.

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JTFor President2016's picture

Ole Miss wasn't good enough to win out. The argument is more towards Auburn in '17 (Bama would've been left out were in not for Iowa). Losing to a team good enough to run the table is where you get more screwed than losing to a mediocre team. Those Ole Miss losses were the definition of "good loss"

Elliott dots the eye, on this national championship win. 

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Ryan.Honeycutt's picture

A “good loss” is the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard... there were guys, experts, guys that get paid to watch and analyze college football, out right saying a loss to Alabama in the SEC title game by Georgia was better then a B1G championship win... and I’m not talking about finebaum... I’m talking Galloway, herbstreit, Davis, pollack (he can be biased too but he shows the buckeyes more love then Galloway and herbstreit) that was the justification to rank UGA ahead of tOSU... COME ON MAN!

RyanPH

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Defiance's picture

Don't get waxed by Rondale Moore an average-as-hell B1G West team

FTFY... 

"Defiance in Silence" 

Shhhh

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Hovenaut's picture

Summary...summery.

But I get what you're putting down here, JTF - trends/similarities are abound.

I can only take them one game at a time.

Got M...igan gossip? Bang it here.

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Knarcisi's picture

5 years deep, Ohio State from last year, stands as the only Power-5 team to win their conference championship game, with 1 loss or fewer, and miss the playoffs. (Big 12 didn't have a title game in 2014).

I’d also venture a guess that we are the only program to have 13 wins and not make the playoff. At least in the Power 5. 

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JTFor President2016's picture

Correct. Also the first time a team had 12 wins on selection Sunday, and was not chosen. I'm proud we have made it 5 comments deep and no one has said "BuT SeC BiAs"

Elliott dots the eye, on this national championship win. 

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HandsOfSweed's picture

Wisconsin went 13-1 and no playoffs in 2017.

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Knarcisi's picture

Good info. Another B10 team ... don’t get that rant started. 

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Hanawi_'s picture

Ohio State is the only team to be left out twice having only one loss. P5 teams with one loss left out: OSU - 2015 and 2018, Iowa - 2015, Wisky - 2017, Baylor - 2014, TCU - 2014. That's the whole list. Has never happened to an ACC or SEC team, but has happened four times to Big Ten teams. 

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GunnerBuck's picture

To be fair, Ohio St got blown out both of those 1 loss seasons. Wisc and Iowa both lost the last week of the season in 2017 so of course they got left out. 

"Come on, you sons of b!tches! Do you want to live forever?" -- Dan Daly, WWI

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Knarcisi's picture

The 2015 MSU loss wasn’t a blowout but it was still one of our worst losses in history. Hurt us that they also had 1 loss and went on to the B10 title. 

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GunnerBuck's picture

You're right. I mispoke on the terminology but the point is the same. Not only was it a "bad" loss (as in we played like complete dog shit), it was also at the end of the season. I do suspect that if Bama had lost to a top 10 team by 3 and went on to beat a top 12 team by 30 they would have made the playoffs though, regardless of the championship game.

"Come on, you sons of b!tches! Do you want to live forever?" -- Dan Daly, WWI

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Hanawi_'s picture

Bama lost their last game of the year and still got in two years ago.

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GunnerBuck's picture

Yes but that was an extremely odd/rare situation with Auburn then. 

"Come on, you sons of b!tches! Do you want to live forever?" -- Dan Daly, WWI

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BtownBuckeye's picture

Two years ago Bama lost the last game of the season and still got in, so i think that argument is invalid.

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kmp10's picture

You're right, OSU was left out last year, even though they met the criteria.

Here's the criteria that kept Ohio State out of the playoff... historically bad defense, an offense that could not run the football for a noticeable portion of the season, and Purdue. And just when I had even the slightest hint of whiff of a scintilla of a thought that the Buckeyes possibly, maybe, perchance had been unfairly left out of the playoff, the second half of the Rose Bowl happened. Their high-scoring air raid offense, i.e., the one argument they had for inclusion, imploded, and the result was the most frustrating half of football I've seen in a long time from an Ohio State offense. The 2018 Buckeyes got exactly what they earned and deserved.

When I die, sprinkle my ashes over the 70's 

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JTFor President2016's picture

I completely agree with all of that. Every word. I was going from simply a record, and trend basis, and therefor, didn't mention the team itself. But yes, they got what they deserved. Which was a great season, that had a few issues keeping it from being legendary. 

Elliott dots the eye, on this national championship win. 

HS
stxbuck's picture

Your 3 criteria summed up the teams performance in the Purdue game. That is the only time in over 35 years of watching/listening to the Buckeyes as a fan that I have seen a Buckeye team literally give up on the idea of running the ball b/c the OL just couldn't get it done.

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Knarcisi's picture

I’ve “argued” that the Maryland game kept us out as much or more than Purdue. After a bit of a hangover vs Nebraska, we beat MSU on the road, Michigan, and NW by 20+ pts each. Exclamation point being Michigan with the top ranked defense in the country. Sandwiched in there is that ugly Maryland game, validating that Purdue was not an anomaly, nor were our defensive struggles. Plus, defense was the argument against Oklahoma. We blow out Maryland like we should, those (3) 20+ point wins put together are a pretty damn good closing argument. 

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Buckeye Chuck's picture

Although flipside, Oklahoma's win over Oklahoma State presented the exact same set of facts: a one-point win over a .500-ish team due to a missed 2-point conversion. And Oklahoma wound up in the playoff.

The way we lost to Purdue was clearly the deciding factor.

The most "loud mouth, disrespect" poster on 11W.

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Knarcisi's picture

Right but the argument was lopsided loss (us) vs bad defense (OU). The Maryland game also put us right there with them on bad defense. 

And the media didn’t do a good job differentiating how bad OU’s defense was. Our was our worst in recent history. Excuse the estimated figures here cut that was good for 68th in the country. OU was like 107th. That’s how bad their defense was.  Wasn’t even in our neighborhood. 

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JTFor President2016's picture

Agree on Maryland. That game made it hard to argue that we turned the corner. 

Elliott dots the eye, on this national championship win. 

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BIGnUGLY's picture

I actually think we had a shot until NW ripped off some long runs in the BIG championship game.  If we pop NW 59-0 we were in.

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Knarcisi's picture

That type of game was a once in a lifetime thing. But doesn’t mean I didn’t have the same thought. That game was frustrating to watch. We were a much better team. Let them back in it and pulled away at the end. Kinda like beating Wisconsin the year before. Winning the B10 is great, but sorry, it feels like less when you know you’re not going to the playoff. 

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JTFor President2016's picture

Side topic. The West could certainly do us some favors in getting a solid Top-10 team in there every year. I know Wiscy was unbeaten and #4, but nobody (including the committee), seemed to take them seriously. 

Elliott dots the eye, on this national championship win. 

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Knarcisi's picture

They were good until we beat them. 

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CincyBuck's picture

Here's the criteria that kept Ohio State out of the playoff... historically bad defense, an offense that could not run the football for a noticeable portion of the season, and Purdue.

Did the Committee say that?  Because I don't recall it doing so.

Which is my beef with the process.  Say why you picked certain teams and not others.  Instead, we're given vague references to a rotating set of ever-changing "data points" as justification for the selection (or not) of certain teams.

If we're going to say "no bad losses" (as subjective and vague as that standard is), or something similar, as a criterion, okay.  It kind of runs against the majority of what the Committee has said in its first four years.  I have doubts whether it'd equally apply to certain other teams' resumes.  And if we created a list of deal-breakers, I suspect we wouldn't be able to fill the 4 slots in most years.

But hey, if the Committee at least tried to set objective-ish factors and stick to them, that'd be nice.

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Davebuck187's picture

What is it with OSU in 2nd half Bowl games?

*Not including overtime

1995 Citrus 3 points
1996 Citrus 7 points
1999 Sugar 0 points
2001 Outback 7 points
2003 Fiesta 3 points
2007 BCS NCG 0 points
2011 Sugar 3 points
2016 Fiesta 0 points
2017 Cotton 0 points
2019 Rose 7 points

"Woody is a God-fearing man. It's good to know that he's afraid of somebody."
-Archie Griffin.

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QuadCitiesBuckeye's picture

2016 Fiesta 0 points

It's not like the first half was any better

Shandy is not beer

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MaineStrength's picture

My recommendation, if you're a blue blood...get the easiest schedule possible and go undefeated.   If you lose a game, don't let it be to a ranked opponent.  If you do lose a game to a ranked opponent make it a very close loss.  If you're a blue blood, more years than not doing this will earn you a spot in the CFP.  If you're not a blue blood it's undefeated or bust.

Strength equipment is expensive & guarantees you nothing. A strong will is free & will give you everything you need.

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LTWilliams's picture

Patterns have been established but I don't see any difference between the current path and the BCS era. In fact, based on the Colley simulation, every playoff participant would have finished in the top 4 of the original BCS formula. The matchups would not have differed either. 2016 was the only year that the exact order of the top 4 was different than the BCS. The positions of Ohio State and Clemson were switched. 

In many of the years, the top 6 to 8 teams were also the same. So even the other NY6 bowl matchups would've been the same as the BCS system (accounting for the new tie-ins). It all still boils down to: If you lose, when you lose, and how the media perceives you.

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Steel City Buckeye's picture

Unfortunately I think the trend will be to schedule less marquee non conference games for the elite schools. Games where top 10 caliber teams play against each other whether regular season or in a bowl game are significant memorable events. Ps. Neutral site games suck!

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ohiopanda's picture

Really wish they would just use BCS style rankings to pick the 4 spots. I know it’d be mostly the same picks, but it’d remove all the garbage and attention surrounding the playoff committee. And end how ESPN shows act like the committee is doing some sort of high level, groundbreaking work every week they release rankings that make the TV talking morons all hyperventilate and run off screen in shock. 

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NoVAsmitty's picture

2018 really does seem like the outlier.  We'll see how it plays out after a few more seasons.  I don't think there's any expansion until 2025 (when the broadcast rights come back up for negotiation, I think).  One loss, conf champion, got upset by a lesser team, but didn't get in.  2108 was not like any of the others.  Had Ohio State lost to Purdue by only 3 points, I still don't think they are getting in.  ND had zero losses and I still think the Committee would have put in OU over Ohio State, because it "avenged its loss."  Not saying that would have been correct or right, just how I see these things go through scarlet colored glasses.

“I intend to make Georgia howl.” General William Tecumseh Sherman

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JTFor President2016's picture

Yeah it was definitely weird. Agreed on the Purdue point. I'll add that if OSU's only loss in 2014-2017 was to the same Purdue team, by the same margin, they would be in every single year. Notre Dame really blows. 

Elliott dots the eye, on this national championship win. 

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bd2999's picture

Winning against a ranked ooc opponent for sure helps. Getting blown out hurts for sure. I mean there are inconsistencies but for the most part any big name sort of team is going to control their own destiny to a large degree.

If you are in a power 5 and go unbeaten and win your conference you will be in. Lose along the way and who you beat matters, who you lost to and by how much matters and so on and so forth. There is a problem when a one loss team passes an unbeaten team, unless that unbeaten team has played garbage, barely wins and the one loss team lost to say the one seed and has won every other game against ranked teams or something very specific.

I like the idea of the committee but there are still problems with it. As it is, they do reward the SEC for playing FCS teams. And playing FBS teams seems to have no real benefit. I would say that the polls are SEC bias but there are multiple good teams in the SEC. One of the issues with the Big Ten is that it is OSU and then who? From year to year who that second team is will vary. It is not like PSU and Michigan are consistently good and so on. Maybe they should be but they are not. It hurts a bit not having something like Alabama does. Say an LSU and Georgia on the schedule consistent. Even when LSU is down, they still usually have a strong defense, usually.

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NoVAsmitty's picture

We sneer at the SEC, but I think their way of scheduling is the way to go.  Looking at another NFL draft with SEC picks being by far the most of any conference (again) is the only proof one needs to concede it is the strongest conference top to bottom.  Big Ten has become a close second, and occasional best in a given season.  I personally believe a CFP entrance requirement is to schedule at least 10 P5 teams and no FCS.  I've said it before and will say it again, UGA only beat 8 P5 teams in 2018.  Bama beat 11 P5 teams only because it made the CFP.  Only two teams beat 12 P5 teams - Clemson and Ohio State.  SEC went their route when they were even more top to bottom dominant.  Big Ten went its route when, let's face it, other than one or two teams (one usually being OSU), the Big Ten sucked.  The conf had to up schedule, and then Urban arrived and we know what he did to most other schools' boats so to speak.  The Big Ten schedule is beast now, so maybe we should look to tone it down elsewhere.  

I think the OP's point #1 is an old way, BCS way, of thinking. It undoubtedly can really help - see the OP's example of our win over OU in 2016.  But the downside is greater than the upside.  Point #4 is very important, I think, but all are trumped by point #2, and by up-scheduling OOC, a team runs a greater risk of missing on #2.  Plus, while an upset loss in conference hurts, it's just one loss and that team isn't any threat.  You can still go and beat your rival and top divisional competition and make your CCG if you get upset, regardless of margin of loss.  If you lose to an OU, you have no control.  You have to hope they lose to Iowa State and to Texas or Baylor or TCU etc.  OU has to lose two games in conference and, as 2017 points out, Ohio State couldn't lose any and did.  Very hard to go undefeated in conf.  So, if we don't want to go the SEC route and schedule fewer than 10 P5 teams and don't want to play FCS teams, then don't schedule tough OOC opponents.  Bad for the fans, but probably better for the CFP.  On the other hand, there's more to life than the CFP, and playing OU is better for recruiting than playing Cincy.

So, in conclusion, the OP's disclaimer definitely applies and I, for one, am going to stress about it.  

“I intend to make Georgia howl.” General William Tecumseh Sherman

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droessl's picture

I refuse to endorse Chickenshit Saturday. 

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Bucks2K18's picture

Another trend: with the exception of Georgia beating Oklahoma, don't be the #3 seed, you'll get blown out (Florida State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Notre Dame)

That's a Buckeye touchdown!

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B1Gbuckeye's picture

Joel Klatt said last year that the committee takes teams at their worst, hence Oklahoma 4th with the 3 point loss to Texas, Georgia 5th with a 20 point loss to LSU, and OSU 6th with a 29 point loss to Purdue.

Same thing in 2017 with Alabama 4th with their loss to Auburn, and OSU 5th with the loss to Iowa.

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MiamiBuckeye's picture

If only they'd had those standards in 2015. 

"porque las estirpes condenadas a cien años de soledad no tenían una segunda oportunidad sobre la tierra."

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MiamiBuckeye's picture

2018 wasn't really that weird, if anything there was just too little chaos for Ohio State to get in. 

The only "weird" thing was Notre Dame going undefeated, but it benefited from a favorable schedule where its toughest opponent was a worse version of the Michigan team Ohio State ended up hanging 62 points on. 

Other than that, it's really hard to argue against Alabama and Clemson. Oklahoma and Ohio State had nearly identical resumes, Ohio State had the edge in defense, Oklahoma a (slight) edge in offense, but Oklahoma had a less ugly loss, so they got the nod. 

"porque las estirpes condenadas a cien años de soledad no tenían una segunda oportunidad sobre la tierra."

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Knarcisi's picture

Oklahoma got to avenge that loss, too. 

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stxbuck's picture

ND didn’t think FSU and USC would be dumpster fires when the 18’ schedule was first released.......

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BrewstersMillions's picture

Quit fooling yourself that this is about the 4 best teams-because no one knows how to find the other two after Bama and Clemson.

Proudly dispensing unbridled arrogance since 1983.

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NorthBerg's picture

Trends? If you want serious consideration for the BIG 10 to earn a CFP slot, do not have your last two teams that did quality lose 38-0 and 31-0 respectively.  Benefit of the doubt is earned, not given.

Too much time spent at the North Heidelberg rather than the classroom. SSD 68-72

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FieldsofJreams's picture

Why are two lone data points from 3-4 yrs ago relevant, while the SEC losing 44-16 just last year is not?

One more question, why are the two data points from 5 yrs ago (that instead lead to a positive interpretation) discounted as well?

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Knarcisi's picture

Doesn’t deserve to be downvoted. The last 2 by us to MSU were embarrassing. 

But we need to make sure to include others here too. Oklahoma is 0-3, with one of the three being a close game. They were ready to put a 1 loss ND in back in 2016 until their Stanford loss the last week of the season.  And ND hasn’t won a NY6/BCS game in 25 years. 

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Zonabuck's picture

Clemson lost 24-6 a year ago with the same offensive struggles we had in the year we lost 31-0. The only difference was they hit their FGs, while we missed ours. 

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Worthington Buck's picture

Oklahoma continually getting a free pass at the top level is what I continue to fail to understand.  All the hang ups about Notre Dame in big bowl games apply to them as well yet they always get a free pass.  They haven't won a meaningful bowl game since 2001, even their biggest bowl win in that time (over Bama in 2013) was a straight mail in by Bama after losing the "Kick Six" to cost a shot at the title.  They've been involved as the most embarrassing team in several bowl losses, the Boise St game, getting boat raced in several title / CFP games.  The loss to Georgia was an epic choke job.  It's clear they take advantage of a lame duck, offense first conference and their defense is annually no where near competition level.  Yet they get every single benefit of the doubt.

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Zonabuck's picture

I still contend that there are only 4-5 programs in the country capable of winning the CFP in this format. It takes the right coaches (especially off the field), commitment, facilities, etc. to get the right kids with the right developement to earn a spot and then win two. Clemson, Bama, OSU are for sure. Georgia is knocking on the door, although I don’t know if the coaching is up to par. That’s probably it. And what I mean is those programs - period. In any given year, there might be only 1-2 who are capable. There are no Cinderella’s, there are no teams that just get the hot hand - their built for it. Auburn, Oklahoma, TTUN, PSU (pre-implosion), Sparty can all make noise about making the. CFP, but they’re not real contenders. 

Notre Dame will get in once every four years just because they’re Notre Dame. No PAC 12 teams are close to competing at the necessary level to win it, but they’ll be placated with an entrant at least every other year. Until the foreseeable future, the winner will be one of Vlemson, Bama, OSU or Georgia. That’s it. 

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Graeham's picture

I think Oklahoma could definitely win it. I actually think they were the best team in the nation 2 years back. Completely collapsed play calling wise in the second half with a first year coach on the biggest stage. I would not be surprised to se them win it in the next couple of years especially if Alex grinch is actually the dude that we were so juiced about a year ago 

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FieldsofJreams's picture

I don't see it.  Their defensive recruiting is sub-par.  OU essentially has to score on every possesion to win a game vs. a competent team.  The margin of error is just too low for them to win a 2-game playoff of elite teams.

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soldierdad's picture

The only way a trend can exist is to have a set of criteria, and see movement toward a faction of that criteria.  When Committee is referred to as beauty contest judges there are no trends.

The soldier is my son.  The school I gone to didn’t teach much grammar.  

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Keze's picture

When you lose that 1 game make sure you do not look like a clown show.

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cricejr's picture

Also, be in the SEC (or now ACC). ESPN will promote their products and have their talking head speak highly of you and will advocate getting in with 2 or even 3 losses.

I bleed scarlet...literally

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osuflacco's picture

Main two things that all five winners have in common are having a QB who can pass effectively first and a great D-Line.  Those are really the most important two, we haven't had both since 2014.  Last year we would have with Nick Bosa and competent coaching, maybe.  This year concerns me on the QB front...although can't wait to watch Fields in action. 

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Worthington Buck's picture

Rule 1)  Be in the SEC or ACC.  The rules don't apply if that's the case.  The TV network putting on the games is deep in bed with these two conferences and the committee is largely made up of southern good ole boys.

Rule 2)  If you aren't in the SEC / ACC suck up hard.  This is why Oklahoma got in over us.  Beamer's kid is on staff there.  The Big 12 commissioner has sucked up hard to the committee ever since 2014.

Rule 3)  OSU is in a weird in between land.  They don't have representation that is going to pound the table for their inclusion.  They got left out years they should have been in (2015, 2018 most glaring) and got in a year they probably shouldn't have (2016).

Rule 4) Non-P5 teams need not apply

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BrutusB's picture

You realize ESPN gives the B1G billions of dollars, right?  I don't know why we're pretending that they don't also have an investment in us.

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FieldsofJreams's picture

Marketshare explains their bias.  Of course they want the B1G/CFB to do well, they just would rather have the SEC/ACC make the most.  

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milhouse4588's picture

I like that we play tough OOC oppoenents at least once a year (usually, this year is a tad weaker in comparison).

However, if my goal was to put us, or just a Big Ten team in the playoffs, I'm scheduling one team like Cincy, 8 conference games, and 3 cupcakes exactly like how Bama does it.

Bama doesn't get penalized for it and they will ride that train as long as they possibly can and even in down years where they don't deserve it they get into the playoffs.

Don't hate the player, hate the game.

To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift.

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Zonabuck's picture

The biggest issue is the inconsistency. Bama sets their schedule, and then ESPN constructs the narrative around it. Early on, scheduling meaningful OOC games were important and scheduling all cupcakes was an eliminator. Now that Bama plays cupcakes, OOC strength of schedule is no longer such a big deal. And with the marquee matchups being scheduled 3-5 years out, it’s just not possible to flip a switch to comply with their narrative. You just pick a path and stick with it. 

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milhouse4588's picture

I don't think there's been inconsistency when it comes to the actual selection for the playoffs. I've never seen a team get left out because of a "weak" OOC, not once.

They may have said it was important but their actions dictated otherwise.

To give anything less than your best is to sacrifice the gift.

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Zonabuck's picture

Not once?  2014 Baylor and TCU were told specifically that they didn’t get in because of Strength of Schrdule. Explicitly. The talk in 2015 was that teams were going to have to purge the cupcakes and start scheduling better Power 5 teams. It was a big deal until it wasn’t. 

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RunEddieRun1983's picture

Solid analysis. I think the criteria alters from year to year, but this past year the consideration of Georgia vs. Ohio State boggled my mind, even with that 1 bad loss to Purdue, Georgia with 2 losses? GTFO here. 

Urban Meyer left an incredible legacy. 12/4/18 Ryan Day begins his.

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