Higher than any player in OSU history.
For better or for worse, this pretty much sums it up.
I think Pryor probably had the highest expectations.
Higher than D-Lo?
Yup, I think this is the thread. Highest rated recruit in program history following a record breaking QB and a first time HC. There's a lot on him.
And, after transferring, this is probably his last shot so he needs to take advantage of it.
Great watch addressing this... Some perspective on our expectations while having just experienced Haskins
Big ten title and in the hunt for the CFP. Don't care if he gets us there with his arm or his legs. Just get us there.
Sorry Urban, Woody is still my favorite
My expecations are in line with yours.
Throw well...but not as well as Haskins.
Run well...but not as well as Pryor.
I think he'll remind us a lot of Troy Smith.
Lifetime vs. UM: L 9-1, C 8-0, T 5-0
Ohio State University President Jim Tressel
I'd be happy with Troy 2.0
Troy Smith was a legend,I’d be happy with Justin Fields 1.0.
I’d be thrilled with Troy Smith 2.0. Hopefully Jameson Williams can be Ted Ginn 2.0 and Garrett Wilson can be Gonzo 2.0.
Don't listen to Freddy P. Soft
Style of play, I mean. Actually *comparing* him to Troy Heismanwolverineslayer at this point (0 snaps) has an over-the-skis feel.
Okay, Knar......I put "of and to" in there. In the words of the former WI coach....."Deal with it.".......LOL !
Or head over heals..
I think he'll definitely run better than Pryor as we just never ran him. We used to scream about Tressel not using this weapon......until we saw Bauserman play. We then realized that Pryor was not allowed to get hurt or it was curtains.
Just win games and don’t get yourself in position to get hurt.Stats don’t matter as long as you win.
I think this is it. There is so much talent everywhere - unprecedented depth across all units. Krenzel-like performance and we run the table.
for some reason I like your brain
“Save yourself and relax during every game. I recommend a fine bourbon.”
Better than Shea Patterson. First team all conference. That's why we got him.
"I don't think you necessarily have to get a trophy to be a winner." - Nick Saban 1/2/15.
Better than Shea Patterson
That's a really low bar.
According to Pro Football Focus, Shea was the top QB in the big ten last season.
PFF also had the kid from Wisconsin (very Wisconsin-ish name that I can't remember for some reason) as the best B1G QB for most of the year too. That alone tells me that their metric for QBs is bogus.
Urban Meyer >Jim Harbaugh for ever and ever, Amen. 0
An absolute joke
“It does not matter the size of the man, rather the amount of effort the man is willing to put forth” - Woody
My thought as well. I don’t care about stats, make this happen. Troy Smith would be at Archie’s status if he beat Florida. Now he is slowly becoming an afterthought. His jersey isn’t even retired even though his name is on the stadium. I expect a natty and that’s all that matters.
His jersey isn’t even retired even though his name is on the stadium
This has nothing to do with his play or lack of National Title. Ohio State just doesn't retire jersey numbers anymore (and is actually un-retiring several, most recently 47 and 22 at the permission of the player/family). Troy is and always will be a Buckeye legend and noted Wolverine Slayer
First of all, I didn’t say that I held Troy in a lower esteem. I’ve fought my wife for years about naming either of my son’s Troy (and you can guess what my last name is based on my username). My 2nd favorite player all-time besides David Boston. Troy is great, I in no way never said he wasn’t. But to Buckeye fans in general, he will not be as held in as high esteem as he would have been if we beat Florida. I guarantee no one would be wearing #10 had we won that game. In 30-40 years, he will be remembered like Les Horvath or Hop Cassidy, when winning that game would have made him synonymous with Ohio State Football like Archie and Woody. Justin Fields wins both the Heisman and a National Title, no one will be wearing #1 again. That’s my only point. National Titles mean more than Heismans. Had Archie only won 1 Heisman instead of 2, he would still be considered great but not at the level he is now. Now if he won just one Heisman and a national title, he probably still would be held to the level he is now.
Hopefully your wife continues to win that battle.
As for 47 and 22, a couple of things. Harley wore several #s at Ohio State, 47 was what he wore his last game. And I can’t recall anyone wearing #22 recently. Had Troy, won a National Title, no way anyone would be wearing #10.
As for 47 and 22, a couple of things. Harley wore several #s at Ohio State, 47 was what he wore his last game
47 was retired by Ohio State, which was the entire point of your comment. Whether or not he wore others doesn't change anything lol. It is no longer retired.
And I can’t recall anyone wearing #22 recently
Steele Chambers was given permission to wear 22 in 2019
Had Troy, won a National Title, no way anyone would be wearing #10.
I don't think you understood my comment. Ohio State literally does not retire numbers anymore. And any current number retired can be worn by any player so long as they're granted permission by the family of the player. It's not a matter of if Troy had won the natty, it's a matter of Ohio State policy.
First of all, they will retire a number if the player is that important. Do you think anyone will wear #45 again? Doubt it. They officially retired it in 1999 after Katzenmoyer left. My point was that no one would be wearing #10 again, like #45 will not be, had we won the game. They are loose with the #47 because it’s like #10 now, they are honoring Harley and Smith, but you’re right in they haven’t really retired those numbers. They are “loose” with #47 because while they are honoring him, he wore others, so they recognize him with #47. I didn’t realize that Chambers was getting #22, he is the first player since the 90s I believe. But I guess in this sense, we can both be right in this instance. My original point was that Troy would be on Archie’s level had he won the game. #10 would be on the level of #45. That one performance and lack of championship hurt his legacy (not for me but in general). In general, all the Heismans are retired but they are not just given out like candy. #40 hasn’t been worn since Hop Cassady in 1955. #27 hasn’t been worn since 2000. #22 hasn’t been worn since 1990 until this year with Chambers. #45 hasn’t been worn since 98 with Katzenmoyer, and wasn’t worn before that after Archie left in 75. Troy’s #10 is even being worn by a freaking walk-on qb (kinda disrespectful in my opinion), which proves my point further.
I expect a natty and that’s all that matters.
So you hold Cardale in higher esteem over a Heisman winner? Put down the bong son.
"I find your lack of kalua disturbing" - Darth Lebowski
When did I say in my post I held Cardale at a higher level than Troy. If I had to pick, I would rather win a Natty than Heisman. I’ve seen us win 2 Heismans and 2 National titles in my life. The Heismans were cool, but 2002 and 2014 were way more special than 1995 and 2006. I guarantee Eddie and Troy would have given up their Heismans for National Titles those years. So you can chill with the bong comment, especially considering one of my best friends was killed in a car wreck by a dumbass high on weed.
Erase Haskins from the record books, Natty or 2 cure cancer and ED
4k yards passing is average 300 a game for 13 games. I don't see that happening honestly.
3000k yards passing, 800 yards rushing should put us in a good position to win games. Haskins is nowhere near those numbers if our defense is playing better. He had to put up tons of yards and points because our defense couldn't stop anyone.
We should be winning games 42-17, not 55-49
I'll take 55-17
I’ll take 62-39
69-32, always do better is or should be a goal.
Beat everyone, in every sport, all the time!!!
3000 & 800 would put him in line with *gasp* JT Barrett...which I'm perfectly fine with as long as the completion % is high & the INT's are low
as long as the completion % is high & the INT's are low
Just don't throw it to the other team. Fields doesn't have to be a gunslinger like Haskins.
"We get paid to score touchdowns, not kick field goals"
-- Urban Meyer
Fields will do just fine, but he is unfortunately following the most prolific passer in OSU history. He won't pass as well as Haskins, and shouldn't be expected to, but he is surrounded by a lot of talent, and his skill set should make the Buckeye offense light up the scoreboard. I just hope he runs out of bounds often instead of taking on opposing tacklers, even though the QB depth chart looks much healthier than it did last week.
That's a good take. There is a lot more to being a really good QB than running and throwing (although it's good). I just got this feeling he will have his struggles from time to time but overall a big asset. I think our defense will make a huge jump which helps Fields get his feet.
why a DV came to your comment is puzzling
3000 passing and 700 rushing.
Enjoying daily the back to back ttun beatdowns.
I'm not putting stat expectations on him. That said, I feel that his performance this year could be comparable to an 05' Troy Smith-that's the best QB comparison for Fields at this point,imo.
To be honest, I hope the OL gets nasty and the offense gets a little more effectively run-centric w/ Dobbins and co.
Run the offense
Mix in the QB run
Win the Big 10
Contention for playoffs
Top QB in Big ten
Stay golden, Ponyboy.
an excellent take
Heisman finalist. Make the playoff. B1G title.
I'm not so much thinking of stats, he'll have them, but want to see him in full control of the offense. On the same page with his coaches, leading the guys on the field...calm, cool, and collected, but yet competitive and in control of play (as called).
He'll need to rely on the guys at the skill spots, and the offensive line is ultimately going to dictate the success of the offense, but I'm eager to see a guy as talented as Fields at the helm.
Hindsight is, and in, 2020
Absolutely. JK Dobbins, KJ Hill, Austin Mack, and Ben Victor will all have to step up and take some pressure off Justin.
Fields' natural running ability gives the offensive line a little bit more leeway than they had with DH. Fields will still have to learn how to adjust protections like DH was able to though.
If Justin is able to master Day's offense in the next 4 months I have no doubt he will be a Heisman candidate.
I like the team awards, but agree - if Fields (under Day, leading OSU as a whole) finds success he'll be in the Heisman discussion for sure.
I think some were expecting Fields to come out in his first spring game and throw for 500 yards and 8 TDs and when he fell way short of that people started grumbling. I seriously doubt Ryan Day would bring in a QB he wasnt confident could do the job. Fields will have a strong offseason and do better. He wont throw for 4,000 yards and 50 TDs but he's capable of coming close and I think he will before he leaves OSU.
I suppose I'm concerned that we might see nervous feet in the pocket and the QB taking off too fast, not letting plays develop. Haskins had tons of time and even when some pressure came, he pretty much had to stay in the pocket. Also worried that coaching staff might be tempted to slip back to the reliance ON the QB run because the passing game is not where it needs to be.
Come on O-Line, reach your individual and unit potential, YOU ARE THE KEY to the offense.
At this point, the only evidence we have doesn’t show that Fields can do much. Rumors and reports from practice are not evidence. I hope Fields can learn enough of the offense to run it without having to punt every other series. Also, I hope he can improve throwing the ball so that we don’t have a return to the Braxton Miller QB/RB situation. I can’t get myself excited about it, honestly. He’s sub-par right now, and has a ton to learn in addition to refining his passing skills. I think he can keep us in games by not turning the ball over, early in the season. I’m not sure how fast or to what extent the growth will occur as the team gets into the meat of the season, but I hope it comes. I sort of expect for Fields a season similar to what we saw from Braxton as a freshman. Fields isn’t the same kind of athlete, but he can run for sure. I am hopeful he can pick up the passing game steadily through fall camp and the season, and we are in contention for a B1G championship game appearance.
I have missed all this. All I've seen on Fields is that he was a 5* coming out of HS, all the tools, had his choice of schools etc, then got stuck on the depth chart and handpicked his next opportunity & we were lucky as hell to get him. Where did you get all this?
Having a rocket arm and being able to run like a scalded deer is great for camps, starhanderouter hype, and HS/mop up time QB play. Running the machine effectively when the lights of ESPN, the DL of Wisky and Bama and the expectations of Buckeye Nation are upon you is quite different..............
Yeah I get that & I'm not one of the Recruitniks 'round here but all I've ever seen on Fields is that he's got all the tools & sky's the limit. "sub-par"?
Are you saying he....
I agree w/ you-he has great potential, but he hasn't gotten the chance to show it off yet. I don't think it's fair or prudent to call him him anything-All World or sub-par until he has 5 or 6 games as a starter under his belt.
Where did you get all this?
Pulled it out of his ass
Shandy is not beer
Nothing cleanses the soul like a no call pass interference.
Before he exited there was some talk among Georgia fans that he was struggling to read defense which looked like he did some in the spring game. I have confidence (if it is true) Day will help him.
I agree that he has a ton of raw talent and ability and the sky is indeed the limit with his guy. He also seems to have a really good head on his shoulders.
One thing we need to keep in mind is that he's been with the team literally only months and by the time Haskins hit the field as a starter he had the benefit of multiple seasons with the program. And he looked rough at times on mop up duty the season before. (Not counting his heroics in The Game of course)
It might take Fields some time to get his legs under him but he's definitely not a QB/RB hybrid like Miller.
I sort of expect for Fields a season similar to what we saw from Braxton as a freshman
Braxton Miller completed 10 passes in a game TWICE as a Freshman, and completed 5 or fewer 6 times. Ohio State went 6-7. If Fields = Freshman Braxton Miller, Ryan Day's seat is going to be VERY hot after just one year. A main reason he was chosen was due to his ability to develop quarterbacks. If Fields is truly that bad (he's not), we're are in a whole world of trouble.
True, however to expect Mr. Day to develop a QB that he's had literally months to work with is expecting much. At this point he has to work with what's there and try to refine it as much as possible. Hopefully he picks up the playbook fast and we are not limited by his ability to understand the offense and read a defense. That and the ability to lead under pressure are the only real questions about this QB, he clearly has the arm and legs.
Get your facts out of here....but for real, I think people do forget sometimes how not great that team was.
I'd say Braxton exceeded expectations in 2011 when you factor in that he was under the control of:
I do see a lot of Braxton Miller in Fields, although it’s a small sample. Braxton settled in at ~2,000 yards passing and ~1,000 yards rushing. Our offense is different now, and (I hope) Field’s ceiling is higher. I could see 3,200/900, or something like that, for 2019.
So "rumors and reports from practice are not evidence," but you confidently state that "he's subpar right now." What are you basing that judgment on, if not rumors and reports?
The most "loud mouth, disrespect" poster on 11W.
Hopefully the passing game keeps humming. Obviously there will be a dropoff, but aside from 2018 the Ohio State passing attack has been average or worst since 2006.
10,000 yards passing 2,500 rushing.
Fuck eSECpn and fuck Mythigan.
If the defense actually plays like an OSU defense besides 2011 or 2018... I'd be more expecting Fields to get pulled by the end of the 3rd in 5-7 games this year. Hopefully he won't "Have to" put up numbers nearly close to Haskins and Hopefully they don't fall in love with the QB option and runs for 500 or less off mostly scrambles. I'd love if they call closer to Troy Smith style offense, where yeah they can run the option well and do situationally but don't rely on it. Use the kids arm and throw to the even faster guys and if protection breaks down or coverage is too tight, tuck that fucker and run.
Somewhere between 2750-3250 passing and 600-1000 yards rushing...hopefully like 35-40TDs combined. Probably 10-15 INTs and some inconsistency (hopefully less as the year goes on). I also expect a better running game overall and a better defense meaning, with this schedule, Fields can actually sit in some games rather than having to score 40-50 to beat low level B1G schools.
My thoughts exactly on the stats. I look at Fields playing a role similar to what Cam Newton did at Auburn: he won games. Sometimes with his arm, sometimes with his legs. I see Fields throwing for more than Newton's 2800 yards and rushing for less than his 1500, but he will be putting this team on his back from time to time, not because he always has to, but because he can.
As of now.... Make it to the season healthy.
Win big ten.
No mid season collapse
Be in position for playoff.
I know there's a game Saturday, and my ass will be there.
I Believe In Ohio State.
To have fun (:
As long as we have fun, we all win
As long as we win, we all have fun.
Kitties aren't supposed to smell like cigarettes, they're supposed to smell like kitties.
Expectations is he'll be pretty good this season and will show why he was so highly rated the following year. Gotta remember he hasn't been in the program long and lost 3 burners and a lot of production from the WR position. I'm going to wager we win a NC with him. Assuming the D gets back to what we're accustomed too.
Assuming he is healthy, 4000 yards total regardless of how, I'd say the offense is in good shape and with the defense expected to be better then we are in the hunt.
Better than last year's B1G QB of the year, Alex Hornibrook.
LOL!!! That NFL stat site was a joke.
The same as every year. National title. Some years are tempered more than others. But championship or bust
I'd like to see Ohio State average 200-250 yards passing and 200-250 yards rushing every game with Dobbins getting about 1,400-1,500 yards rushing.
This would make for a versatile offense that can pound with Fields and Dobbins or burn teams with the passing game when defenses stack the box.
Would not mind this
55%/2500 yards/25 TD/7 int 5-7 rush TDS and maybe 300-500 rush yards.
That would be a disaster of a season honestly. If he's going to be that inaccurate and only going to throw for 2500 yards he's going to need to run for at least 800-1000 if our offense is going to be successful enough to win games. This prediction pretty much means you expect OSU to go 8-4 at best (Or Dobbins to run for 2000).
It's basically showing zero confidence in Day and Wilson's ability to call an offense for him
2016 JT 61%/2500/24 TD/7 INT 845 RYD/ 9 rushing TD.
Doesn't seem like a stretch to me.
So you're basically saying you think Barrett with Tim Beck/Ed Warriner is both a better passer and a better runner than Fields with Ryan Day. I think that's a HUGE stretch honestly. Barring injury I don't see a way Fields ends the year with less than 3500 total yards and the Buckeyes are successful. You have him completing barely half of his passes and between 2800-3000 yards.
Let's not forget OSU had three 700+ yard runners in 2016 (Weber/Samuel/Barrett) and ran for over 3000 as a team. That's the only way OSU has any success if Fields has as pedestrian of a season as you're projecting, and unless Dobbins absolutely blows up this year 3000 team rushing yards seems unlikely with Fields accounting for as few as you give him.
Again, that projection for Fields is a projection for the Buckeyes to lose 4 or 5 games.
I’m saying maybe we’re jumping the gun on a first year starter in a brand new system that isn’t a carbon copy of what is probably a generational talent in Haskins, and most of this board is not setting their expectations in reality. Those numbers don’t necessarily translate in a 4-5 loss season. Saying he’ll be a heisman finalist and national championship winner while competing for the O’Brien trophy is just completely unrealistic based on extremely little playing time during mop up duty.
I hope all of these things happen, but we’re basing everything purely off his recruiting ranking as there are quite a few beat writers that have attended the practices and have serious doubts and misgivings about his performance in his first season here. I don’t think my prediction is that off base and anyway it’s all wild speculation at this point. That is, however, roughly what I expect.
It's totally fine to temper expectations. But those projections would indicate you think Fields is going to be in the bottom half of QBs in the B1G. 55% is terrible, and unless Day decides to shift his offensive philosophy to more run oriented to compensate for Fields deficiencies as a passer 2500 yards is also well below what it should be. And if we make that change in philosophy, those rushing yard numbers are far too low. My point is if OSU is going to have a successful season, you're way too low on one of those projections. Either he's as advertised with his arm, or he makes up for some passing issues with his legs. If he can't do either, then OSU is going to lose a lot of games. You compared him to 2016 JT Barrett. We don't beat Wiscy, MSU, or UM without JTs legs, which translates to a 4 loss regular season in 2016.
4 or 5 loss difference based on a 300 yard rushing difference from the quarterback. Okay. I am slain.
Did you watch the Buckeyes in 2016? If JT Barrett only ran for 300-500 yards that year, we don't go 12-1. That's not even a hot take. The 3 games I mentioned would be losses almost 100% certainly would have been losses if Barrett ran for between 35% (300/845) and 58% (500/845) of his rushing yardage. He ran for 322 yards and 3 TDs across those 3 games, which we won by a combined 11 points (regulation ended by a combined 8 points). You're literally cutting JTs rushing yards in half in games where his legs carried the team. His legs were quite literally the difference between 12-1 and 8-4 that year, I'm not sure what's so hard about that for you to understand.
I agree with Trev. This is 2019.
200 yards passing on average is not going to cut it unless the Buckeyes are a completely monster rushing team with Fields/Dobbins/Teague.
Sorry to necro a month old post, but I'm really sorry for the way I interacted with everyone here. It's possible my predictions were outlandish but I wasn't going for shock value. If anything, I wanted to temper expectations of Justin Fields, however, the way I went about it was dreadful and I apologize for being so nasty. <3
Lol it's all good my man. It's the internet, people have said WAY worse than anything you said in this thread. Hell, I'm sure I personally have said way worse. Here's to you being horribly, horribly wrong on Fields and he ends up being Dwayne Haskins with 4.5 speed :)
Edit: honestly, I just re-read it all and you didn't even really get nasty. I think your logic was flawed but you displayed it fine. You got a smidge snarky with the "I am slain" comment but again, I've heard way worse tossed my way haha and acted far worse in the past I'm sure.
4250 all purpose yards--3400 in the air and 800 on the ground, 50 receiving yards from a trick play in a postseason game. 33 passing touchdowns, 11 rushing touchdowns, 1 receiving touchdown (from the aforementioned trick play), 8 interceptions, 65% completion percentage on the season.
"porque las estirpes condenadas a cien años de soledad no tenían una segunda oportunidad sobre la tierra."
JTs season highs were 2900+ yds passing 35 tds and 900+ yds rushing and 11tds.
Going by those numbers with Day running the offense to Fields strengths and Fields being a better passer and a faster runner then JT. Fields should hit 3500 passing yards with 35 tds and another 700 rushing with 8 tds.
That should be about what he does. If he does more then that will be just a bonus and would put him in the HEISMAN talk which should mean a B1G championship and a spot in the final four.
Pain heals, chicks dig scars, glory lasts forever
He'll be alright his first season and then get better from there. I don't expect much from him. Not his fault our entire QB room dipped when he transferred. I will be pleasantly surprised if between now and football season he learns how to effectively read and butcher a defense. But I expect him to be a real threat on his feet and to be very raw through the air.
His college football career potential though? He has the potential to be an all time great.
Pretty darn high. Numbers don’t necessarily concern me unless he throws a lot of picks. I think 3000 in the air and 800 on the ground are not unrealistic. Urban used to say a QB is a product of what is around him. And Fields has a lot to work with. Add that to his raw talent and the fact that Ryan Day as his coach, yeah, pretty darn high. 1st team all B10 and winning the B10 championship are reasonable expectations.
I would be cautious in your expectations of a first year starter with no experience as a true sophomore. According to 247 Fields was the #2 pro style QB. Here are the same guys from previous years.
2017: Hunter Johnson (Clemson): Hasn't started yet.
2016: Jacob Eason (UGA/Washington): This one is interesting because he also went to UGA & transferred. 204 of 370 for 2,430 yards, 16 TDs, 8 INTs. That was his true freshman year and then he was a backup his sophomore year before transferring.
2015: Blake Barnett (Bama/S/Fla): Transferred to S. Florida after getting displaced by Jalen Hurts. His first year starting (RS Soph) he went 214 of 350 for 2705, 12 TDs, 11 INTs.
2014: Will Grier (Florida/WVU): He began his career at UF (RS his freshman year) started a few games, then got suspended for PEDs and transferred to W. Virginia. In his first full season as a starter he went 250 of 388 for 3,490 yards with 34 TDs & 12 INTs.
2013: Christian Hackenberg (PSU): He started as a true freshman and went 241 of 392 for 2,955 yards with for 20 TDs & 10 INTs.
So, looking back at the last 5 guys ranked similarly to Fields the average was 2,895 yds, 20 TDs, 10 INTs. So, I'd temper your expectations a bit. You'd probably be happy with Grier's numbers. But, Grier was probably a more polished passer than Fields. Grier was also a year older when he did that. However, my guess is Fields to put up some good rushing numbers too which none of these guys really did.
Strength equipment is expensive & guarantees you nothing. A strong will is free & will give you everything you need.
You also have to consider none of these guys played with the amount of talent around them that Fields should have this year. I actually don't think the 2900 passing yard average is a bad estimate, I think he'll end up right around 3000-3300 if he stays healthy all season. 20 TDs seems low with as much as OSU has shifted towards a pass dominated offense under Day and using pop passes on jet sweeps (particularly in the red zone). I think 25-30 TDs is a realistic expectation there. 10 INTs seems about right given what we know so far about Fields passing ability. And as you said, he should put up much better rushing numbers than any of the aforementioned guys. I'd guess in the 700-800 range. So if I had to take a stab at his statline I'd say something like:
61% completion, 3200 yards, 29 TDs 10 INT, 750 yards rushing and 8 more TDs on the ground.
You also have to consider none of these guys played with the amount of talent around them that Fields should have this year.
I think Eason had similar talent at UGA during his season as the starter. According to the 247 team talent composite UGA had the 4th most talented roster in the nation.
61% completion, 3200 yards, 29 TDs 10 INT, 750 yards rushing and 8 more TDs on the ground.
I personally don't think he'll throw for quite that many yards or TDs or have that good of a completion percentage based on what I've seen from him so far and his spring game performance. I do think he'll do some good things on the ground. But, my guess would be in the same ballpark so we'd probably just be splitting hairs here.
Thought we were just comparing 2nd seasons, so I was basing it on Washington's roster this year. Eason was a true freshman that year in a relatively conservative offense, I would think Day's spread will allow Fields to flash a bit more than Eason did.
As for the yards/TDs, I think you're going to see even more screens and one read plays than we did with early season Haskins. Day is going to focus on getting Fields some confidence early in the season I think, which should lead to some inflated passing numbers due to our receivers YAC abilities.
Thought we were just comparing 2nd seasons
My comparison looked at the stats of the first year as the teams starting QB. For some that occurred in year one, for others it was years 2 or 3. Easons' stats occurred during his true freshman year at UGA.
I would think Day's spread will allow Fields to flash a bit more than Eason did.
Agreed. However, both featured a strong RB. I'm not sure this will mean Fields passing numbers will be significantly higher, maybe slightly, but again I mostly agree and we're just splitting hairs here.
Day is going to focus on getting Fields some confidence early in the season I think, which should lead to some inflated passing numbers due to our receivers YAC abilities.
I think that's probably true. But, Day will have a difficult balancing act when deciding how to use Fields. On the one hand he'll want to use his most developed skill, his feet. On the other hand, he won't want to risk getting him hurt looking at the depth behind him. On the one hand racking up stats in blowouts against non-conference foes and the bottom half of the B1G might be desirable to get a first year starter more snaps, on the other hand it will again be a balancing act to keep him healthy for the two big games against PSU and UM at the end of the season. He may get less snaps than you'd expect looking at the other comparisons.
Again I think we agree more than we disagree. But, based on some of these circumstances he's a bit trickier to predict. My initial point was merely to temper expectations a bit down from the OP's comparison to Haskins who had the luxury of learning the offense for 3 years and had shown in his first chance to play in a big game against UM in '16 that he clearly had strong passing skills that I've yet to see from Fields.
1) Fields was listed as a dual threat QB, not Pro style QB, making your whole point moot.
2) Not all #2's are created equal. Even if he was the #2 Pro Style QB, his composite ranking was 0.9998 (#8 all time ranking). Johnson's was 0.9854(no all time ranking) , Eason's 0.9975 (#95 all time), Barnett's 0.9898 (#427 all time), Grier's 0.9765 (no all time ranking), Hackenburg's 0.9927 (#288 all time). By going strictly off recruiting rankings, the expectation should be Fields exceeding the guys you listed.
3) This is the same thing as saying "The big 10 hasn't had a QB drafted in the first round since 1995 so Haskins shouldn't be a 1st round pick."
1) Fields was listed as a dual threat QB, not Pro style QB, making your whole point moot.
Good catch. When I filtered 247s rankings I only did so for QB. Fields was the overall #2 QB behind Trevor Lawrence, but the #1 dual threat. The #1 dual threats were:
2017 Tua Tagovailoa (Bama): 245 of 355 for 3966 yards with 43 TDs & 6 INTs. Was in his second season, but had quite a bit of playing time during blowouts and came in to relieve Jalen Hurts in the NC game. He already had 11 TDs as a freshman.
2016 Jarrett Guarantano (Tennessee): Has not been a starter yet
2015 Kyler Murray (Olkahoma): 260 of 377 for 4361 yards with 42 TDs and 7 INTs. Was in his 3rd season with almost 100 attempts already in college.
2014 Deshaun Watson (Clemson): 333 of 491 for 4109 yards with 35 TDs and 13 INTs. Also had quite a bit of playing time as a freshman with over 130 attempts and 14 TDs.
2013 Asiantii Woulard (UCLA): Was never a starting QB and appears to be out of college FB.
The dual threat guys seem to be hit or miss. Two guys have yet to be starters, one is no longer in football from it appears, and the other three turned out to be stars. The average of the other three is 4,145 yards, 40 TDs, 8 INTs. However, all those guys had a lot more experience in their first 1-2 years than Fields does. All had over 100 attempts and 10ish TDs behind them. Fields numbers are less than half that. This makes predicting Fields a little tricky if we are only comparing him to other dual threat QBs.
2016 Jarrett Guarantano (Tennessee): Has not been a starter yet
Fyi Guarantano started 6 games in 2017 and every game in 2018 for Tennessee.
But nonetheless, appreciate the depths you go for researching your takes. I agree it's hard to predict what Fields will do as we just haven't seen much. He has shown flashes of being a potential Heisman contending QB, but was never given the opportunity at UGA and for good reason. Fromm is damn good but if I were Kirby I would have given him more opportunities in mop up duty to run an offense vs. game manage. And in the spring game here he didn't look great but he had only a couple months to learn the playbook and connect with the WRs.
Fyi Guarantano started 6 games in 2017 and every game in 2018 for Tennessee.
Thanks for adding! I tried only to look at guys who had roughly a full year of starting experience so we could compare apples to apples. But, that adds good context. We could probably double his numbers to get a good estimate, let's see if that makes sense...(1,907x2) 3,814 yds, (12 x 2) 24 TDs, & (3 x 2) 6 INTs. That's in the ballpark and would drop the estimate I projected earlier down. It's worth nothing that was against Vandy, Mizzou, UK, Charlotte, & SC. If I'm reading his stat line correctly he did not see snaps against Florida, UGA, Aub, or Bama which are likely some of the top defenses. So, that projection may be a favorable projection.
appreciate the depths you go for researching your takes
He has shown flashes of being a potential Heisman contending QB, but was never given the opportunity at UGA and for good reason. Fromm is damn good but if I were Kirby I would have given him more opportunities in mop up duty to run an offense vs. game manage. And in the spring game here he didn't look great but he had only a couple months to learn the playbook and connect with the WRs.
You take a lot of heat on 11W but I appreciate your attention to detail MS.
Much obliged :)
Minimize turnovers. Don't try to win the game yourself. Rely on the talent around you. An improved defense and superior special teams will compensate for non-point drives. You don't have to run like JT nor throw like Haskins, but throw better than JT and run better than Haskins.
Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing.
My expectations are that he should be the better QB of Tate Martell and Matthew Baldwin.
Thank you Urban Meyer and Gene Smith
Get the Bucks to the playoffs and perform well there. Of course a National Championship would be nice, but it's hard to EXPECT a national title seeing that there have only been two of those in the last 50 years.
I think this is less about what Fields does and more about how Day adapts to his talents throughout the season. I have confidence in Day thus I think Fields will have a great year. And a great year in my book is 15-0 or 14-1 (as long as the 1 isn't scum) with a chance to play for a NC.
We can "temper our expectations" as much as we like, but fairly or not, the media and many members of this fanbase will compare Fields to Trevor Lawrence. What did Lawrence do in his freshman year? He led his team to a national championship and established himself, no offense to Haskins or Tua, as the most lethal QB in the country. Considering that Fields and Lawrence were recruited at the same time ouf of high school, the comparisons will be inevitable.
Fields' transfer into Ohio State cleaned out the Buckeye QB room. The expectations of him will be immense, to state what should be already obvious. The fact that he had a so-so Spring Game won't mean a damn thing on August 31st.
Ofcourse he will be compared to Trevor Lawrence. Contrary to popular belief Trevor had struggles in the regular season . He just went to the right system that brought him along slowly & had a defense to cover for him. The coaches bet on his talents 1st and new his skillset will be needed in the playoffs.
Fields on the other hand chose a wrong system to go play in & Coaches who don’t know what to do with his talent.
right now he is a better system, we get to watch him develop.
Yes he will always be compared to Trevor , Trevor has a year headstart , just like he had a 52 high school game headstart . Fields has to catch him though.
It’s going to be exciting to watch.
Win Baby , Win
Look he’s going to run. He’s an athlete and it’s a built in defense mechanism when you see everything break down and a hole open up. I just want it instilled in him to slide and or find the sideline every f’in time unless it’s at the goal line to win a b1g or national title.
We don’t need a Trevor Lawrence situation against Syracuse because he wants an extra yard after getting a first down already.
Yet some people were mad that Haskins wouldn’t run . Most notably Urban Meyer .
I will say again, the No. 1 reason people are down on Fields is he didnt light it up in the spring game so they have nothing else to do but freak the fuck out. To suggest he will be worse than 2011 Braxton Miller is the most idiotic thing Ive read on here since last August.
And I too read those Georgia fan forums bitching about FIelds and his playing ability. I took most of that as UGA fans spewing sour grapes. They all know if Fromm goes down their whole season goes to shit.
Fields will make Dobbins better because of the threat to run, which in turn will force defenses to pick their poison. Then when defenses sell out to stop the run Fields burns them downfield with our insane depth at WR.
Some of you people need to step off the ledge. Seriously.
To be a solid passer but not Haskins and able to make plays with his legs. Whatever he does to help OSU score TDs is fine with me.
I am hoping he lights it up on the air and ground, but have not seen him fully prepared yet. I just know on talent he is supposed to be insane.
Help us win the big ten.
Beat scrum. Maybe a playoff berth...
Ok. Maybe stay upright..improve throughout the year..find a way to win the big ten...
My expectations for fields is that he will be the QB coach day needs him to be... the coaching staff will put him in a position to succeed with game planning and play calling... day has already stated that the offense will adapt to the QBs strengths, and if all else fails Justin has the athletic ability to be productive... the yards, the TDs, all that will come but Ryan day has stated they need someone who can move the offense down the field... maybe that involves running a little more with J.K. because the D is accounting for fields to take off and it is opening up more holes... who knows at this point but I’m excited to see #1 lead this team to great things in 2019
I believe the coaching staff are equipped to create an offense to maximize the talent they coach up, because they have the keys to a program built to an elite level by those who came before them, and they will not fail. They know full well failure is not an option. Only massive misfortune of crippling injuries will derail their plans. Every college team has 18-22 year olds, and all the top teams must deal with the cards they have.
I expect Fields to lead this team to the playoffs this year and guide this team to a NC either this year or next. I know that he is talented enough and Ryan Day is bright enough to mold him into a Deshaun Watson-type player at the college level. And before anyone mentions it no my expectations are not unrealistic. This is Ohio State and we have an offensive guru as our head coach. These are realistic expectations for this program.
Hey.......Gotta a new one
"Win the whole fucking thing!"
Born and bred a Buckeye - Buckeye 'til I die
It doesnt take a genius to watch Fields' highlights on youtube and see he is a very skilled and talented runner, and a talented but not yet skilled thrower. I expect some struggles from him but luckily he has time to develop the way the schedule sets up. I have faith Day can develop him to where he needs to be, but we are 100% going to have some osu fans on here next fall complaining that he cant make the throws haskins did. That is not fair to Fields but it is going to happen. I think weve got the right staff in place to develop Fields but i believe he is more of a project than most of us hope.
It is prob just sour grapes, but is there any truth to a PSU Board claiming Fields is struggling in his development? Had not heard that at all here, unless I missed it?
I cant find any threads on any PSU fan boards about it but I know someone on here posted that (paraphrasing) Georgia fans considered him a bust and that he struggled to read defenses (hence why he didnt play more or start over Fromm). Could be true. But you could be right, it could be sour grapes from Georgia fans pissed Fields transferred out. They know full well a serious injury to Fromm sends their entire season down the crapper.
I SERIOUSLY doubt Ryan Day would take Fields' transfer if he couldn't perform at a high level. That includes being able to read defenses and work things out on the board. Those are two things Day and Mike Yurcich are the best at teaching. Why on earth would they take a QB who couldnt do any of that?
It wasn’t a unique thread, I have just seen scattered comments in unrelated threads. I am chalking it up to one idiot, followed by a game of telephone. His progression has been quiet on here lately, since Spring Ball for obv reasons.
As for Dawg fans, how many true Freshman QBs didn’t struggle? Even TLaw almost lost Clemson the A&M game early in the year. Fromm was one of the better ones I have ever seen, but good grief if that is your new expectation!
I didnt think he played all that bad in the spring game. That TD bomb to Victor was a beauty and there is no doubt Fields' speed is gonna cause all kinds of problems for defenses. Does he have a ton of improvement to do? Oh yeah. But nothing in the spring game led me to believe he's a bust. Nobody at PSU or Georgia can attest to his development because none of them are in the WHAC.
Right now I feel like it comes down to how much of the playbook he gets comfortable with come season time. I'm excited to have the quarterback run back in the offense. Fields huge arm and speed will keep defenses honest.
Probably the biggest beneficiary of Fields's talent is JK Dobbins. Last year the run game just seemed off all year without Haskins being a major threat to keep the ball.
Day nor any other coach would be able to determine if the young man could or couldn't perform at a high level, especially when talking about reading a defense verses pure athletic ability. Working things out on a board verses on a field when under pressure are two completely different things as well.
We all hope and pray that he lives up to his potential and our hype but it is really unfair to both the coaching staff and the young man himself to expect a Savior. He should be a good QB for this team and hopefully great at some point but we should expect at least a few growing pains this season.
I expect 3500 passing, 60% or so comp rate and 500-600 rushing yards, max. He will have his growing pains but JK and KJ (and co) will help him out and he will help out the new starting OL with his feet. Perfect scenario for next year as well, IMO.
"Come on, you sons of b!tches! Do you want to live forever?" -- Dan Daly, WWI
65%+ completion rate, TD/Int ratio > 25:1 (no Int after game 3), Passing Efficiency > 175, less than 10 sacks allowed, Avg. 7yd/rush and 50 rushing yd/game, play 15 games without missing a play due to injury.
No pressure kid, don't worry. Fans won't climb on your back until about the second snap that isn't a TD.