Ohio State Likely Needs One More Win To Secure NCAA Tournament Berth

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Hovenaut's picture

Straight from the unpopular opinion desk (as I understand that's a thing lately)...

I don't see it (a tourney bid), even if they get past Indiana again (and that's a solid 'if'). 

I do think there's much to look foward to with this program, but I feel like I've seen all I'm going to see from the current season. 

But hey, prove me wrong. 

HS
OhioAgainstTheWorld34's picture

I am hoping that you meant there isn't much to look forward with this *season!

There is plenty to be excited about with this PROGRAM.  Ohio State loses CJ, Woods and Lane... They're bringing in EJ Liddel (Illinois Player of the Year), DJ Carton (Iowa Mr. Basketball) and Alonzo Gaffney (Jordan All-American).... With the possibility of landing Diallo, a 7 footer that visited this past weekend.  This team truly lacks two things a second scoring option opposite Kaleb and a true ball handling point guard... They are picking up both in the off-season.

HS
PhillyNut's picture

That is what he said - much to look forward to with this program.

I don't buy one goddam drop of gas in the state of Michigan!

HS
OhioAgainstTheWorld34's picture

I read the do as a don't... That is on me for not being able to read.

HS
countrybuckeye's picture

the toilet in the PL needs cleaning

get to it

“Save yourself and relax during every game. I recommend a fine bourbon.”

HS
ibuck's picture

 This team truly lacks two things . . .

They also lack length*, which would help in rebounding and defensively. OSU was last in the B1G in blocks.

* Length: guys over 6'9".  Kaleb, LaDee and Gaffney will be tallest Buckeyes, all at 6'9".

Our honor defend, so we'll fight to the end !

HS
FieldsofJreams's picture

I assume your reasoning is the eye test?  I read a lot of tOSU doesn’t deserve to be in, but then no facts are given to support this opinion.

HS
Hovenaut's picture

Inconsistent play, trouble scoring, trouble defending...we can pick from nearly every game. 

Hey, if they beat IU and play Sparty strong...god bless 'em. The NCAA will look favorably upon Ohio State's fanbase. 

HS
BuckeyeBen7.7's picture

We definitely have our weaknesses, but half of the article is showing how many of the other bubble teams have deficiencies too. Look at the bubble teams listed. I’d venture to say only one or two of them have cases that are definitively better than ours. Most have cases that in my opinion, are definitively worse. On a normal year, this team doesn’t likely make it. But this year, there’s an argument to be made that they’re better than the other bubble teams.

HS
ibuck's picture

 I read a lot of tOSU doesn’t deserve to be in, but then no facts are given to support this opinion.

14 losses usually only gains entry when a team wins a conference's automatic entry.

(Yeah, it's counting chickens too soon, but OSU is highly unlikely to win 4 times in 4 days.)

Our honor defend, so we'll fight to the end !

HS
FieldsofJreams's picture

If you think tOSU needs to win an auto-bid to get in, you simply do not pay attention to cbb outside of this team.

There are going to be about 10 at-large teams in w/ 13+ losses.  You would just be replacing tOSU with a team that has a near identical record, or one that has not beaten more than one other tournament team all year.

HS
ibuck's picture

If you think tOSU needs to win an auto-bid to get in, you simply do not pay attention to cbb outside of this team.

Wow, you misinterpreted that. I'm well aware that this is NOT a normal year in D1 hoops. If it were, OSU would be hoping for NIT bid.

There are going to be about 10 at-large teams in w/ 13+ losses.

We will see. But as the last team in, OSU's position is precarious. Just one upset in any of the other conferences could oust them.

Our honor defend, so we'll fight to the end !

HS
Seattle Linga's picture

It's time to put up or shut up ........... let's all hope the return of Kaleb will make all the difference. 

Offence gets a much needed shot in the arm with Wesson's return.

Go Buckeyes !!

See you in Indy !!

It's not a rivalry .............. it's a wreckoning.

Seattle Sounders 2019 MLS Champions

HS
Darksungm's picture

As long as Georgia doesn't jump us and we end up two spots from the tournament I'll be happy!
Intended as a joke but I now realize I'm still a little sore about it.

God bless and go Bucks.

HS
TheVictoryBell's picture

According to Bracketology on ESPN we are the last team in and Indiana is the first team out. This is a play in game. 

HS
BUCKfutter's picture

the thing that's most frustrating is that we're wins against rutgers and illinois away from being .500 in conference fairly comfortably in. no teams on that list deserve bids, but the encouraging thing is, our resume compares favorably.

the kids are playing their tail off, and the coaches are screwing it up! - JLS

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Huskerbuck's picture

We went from a 12-1 top 20 team to start the season to a 6-12 team to finish out the year.  Hoping for the best against IU but we need this win to be considered NCAA tournament worthy. 

HS
Yuman's picture

They should go to the NIT and play as many young players as possible.  NCAA is a likely one and done.  NIT win a few games and get young guys game time. 

Rlc

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ScarletGray43157's picture

Absolutely correct reasoning. 

Definite possibility to win more than one game in the NIT, and build for the future. 

In old Ohio there's a team that's known throughout the land...

HS
jpfbucks01's picture

If they lose to Indiana, then i think what kills any chance out the dance is going 6-13 in the last 19 games. Simply put that is not good by any measure.

I think they need 2 wins as with minor conferences you just never know who gets upset in those conferences and suddenly some obviously undeserving team gets in by virtue of winning a lower level conference tourney and a regular season conference winner is now in competition for that at large berth

Take someone like St Mary's who is in the West Coast Conference finals with Gonzaga. the Zags are in for sure regradless of the outcome of that game. But St Mary;s is likely out if they dont win as they stand at 21-11. If St Mary's can find a way to upset the Zahs then both are in and the bubble just shifted down 1 rung

Indiana at a minimum needs to be a win and I think a 2nd rd win over MSU is likely needed as well. I think if they can somehow pull that off then they should be safe. Indiana only may not be enough if they lose fairly badly to MSU (15+ pts say).

That scenario would make them 7-13 in their last 20, with a win over a slumping Iowa team that has lost 4 straight and Indiana twice is would then likely be an NIT level team, but not much else to show for their resume
 

HS
AZ Buckeye13's picture

If the Buckeyes can beat Indiana and play a close, tough game against MSU I think that they can slip in. That isn't likely to happen but you never know...

HS
bsk33's picture

Upsets happen. No doubt about it, but your example of St.Mary's over Zaga would be a pretty big one. Zags are 14.5 pt favorites. Wofford's win last night definitely helped the bubble teams like osu. Murray State's win over Belmont may have hurt though. Even with Morant, Belmont has the better tourney resume over Murray St.

I play, coach stays. He goes, I go.

HS
wigmon's picture

I laid this out in a post yesterday, but there are maybe 10 teams that need to win their first round conference tourney game or they could be out.  For example, Oklahoma has a 7-11 conference record and has a very similar OOC resume to ours and they are viewed as an 8-9 seed.  Texas has to beat Kansas in its first game or finishes the season 16-16 (no team without a winning record has ever made the tourney as an at large).  NC State and Clemson are also playing a winner in/loser out game, so thats at least 1 team that is currently in that is going to drop.  TCU was 7-11 in conference and their only somewhat decent ooc win was home against fellow bubble team Florida.  Their first round B12 matchup doesn't provide them any boost and OkSU could beat them.  Certainly there are teams off the bubble that could move up as well.  Here is the way I would state it:

- If we are lose we are out (duh)

- If we beat IU and lose to MSU, we are about a 90% chance to be in.  I wouldn't say its a lock or that we deserve it, but its just the nature of a weak bubble.  If we only win 1 game, I would personally take Belmont or UNCG given how we've played the last 3 months, but while those teams have packed on the wins, they don't have any significant ones.

- We are 100% in if we win 2 BTT games.

HS
bsk33's picture

I would agree with that.

I play, coach stays. He goes, I go.

HS
bsk33's picture

Not sure who to blame, JPFBucks for bringing it up or myself for saying it would not happen.

But Zags look like they might go down. Down 5 with 6 mins to go and St.Mary's pace of play makes Wisconsin look like the 1980s showtime LA Lakers.

This would be a terrible outcome for the Buckeyes and all bubble teams.

I play, coach stays. He goes, I go.

HS
FieldsofJreams's picture

Ouch, that hurt.

Dick Vitale was annoyingly campaigning all game long for the Gaels to be in win or lose bc they passed his “eye-test”.  Give me a break, their best win all year had been NM State.  Can’t stand the “UCF shoulda been in the playoffs” crowd.

HS
bsk33's picture

I know it made me sick.

At one point he said they should be in over these 14,15 loss teams. Dick, they have 11 losses and play in a league with one good team.

And honestly, that stall ball style of play does not pass the eye test for me. It makes my eyes want to bleed.

I play, coach stays. He goes, I go.

HS
buckinraleigh's picture

The part missing from that analysis of other bubble teams is trend.  What have you done *lately*?  And for the Buckeyes, that's not a good look.  I think we need two wins to be comfortably in.

HS
Exile's picture

While I hear what you're saying, it's not like anyone is unaware that our best player has been suspended for all of those "what have you done lately" games, and the most lately game, they showed good enough fight to mount a comeback and take it to overtime. 

That said, I do agree with you that we would be comfortably in with 2 wins. And I don't think beating Indiana is going to guarantee us a spot.

HS
FieldsofJreams's picture

There is a lot of ignorance on here about how this process works.  It is actually quite transparent, opposed to the football counterpart, and why Lunardi and his colleagues only miss one or two bids per year.

The committee puts in the most deserving resumes, and not which teams are currently the best.  Losing streaks do not matter to them, as they do not place an emphasis on when the games were played.  On paper the UC win may as well have happened last week.

HS
wigmon's picture

I understand your point and agree that it should be a consideration, but the committee instructions are very specific this year in that when the wins and losses occurred are supposed to have 0 impact on the decision.  Now, I am sure it will still have some sway, but those stats of last 10 or 12 games will not be present on the record sheets for each team.

HS
Blackcoffee's picture

Indiana was on a 7 game losing streak the last time we met. They have won 4 of the last 5. The last win we had with Kaleb playing, and Ahrens lighting it up seems centuries ago, is widely considered to be an anomaly by most here. In fact, after the last 3 losses, if you said"well,what about the Iowa game?" most think you are referring to the football game a couple years ago. So whats the point? Ain't got one. Ha!

But about the game. Nah, I called it a coaching battle the first time around. Indianas Tom Crean hangover resurfaces. We win. Keep it simple.

Go Bucks!

HS
ANOTHERMICHIGANLOSS's picture

I'm expecting this team to go full Kemba Walker UCONN who after finishing the season losing 7 of their last 11 and ending on the bubble, they went on a tear through the now defunct Big East tournament, and through the NCAA's on their way to a national championship...250/1 is fools money.  Get in now.

HS
buckjunky's picture

Unbelievable that OSU still has a chance to get in. We have a lot better teams that did not get in.

buckjunky

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BeatMeechigun's picture

Agree.  I thought the 2007-08 team was deserving at 19-13 (10-8 in conference) with back-2-back top 25 wins over 15 Purdue and 18 MSU to close the regular season.

That bye as the 5-seed killed us that year.  Picking up one BTT win - even over a hypothetical 12-seed would have been huge to get to 20-12 (20-13 assuming the loss to 4-seed MSU in the next game).  Instead we got a bye and were faced with needing to beat a top 20 MSU team for the second time in a week to get in.

That said, there was just no excuse for losing at 10-22 (5-13) Michigan.  At 13-19 (6-12) Iowa was another bad loss in 2008.  Otherwise, 10 of those 13 losses came to teams that won 25+ games.

HS
ShowThemOhiosHere's picture

I would feel better about Selection Sunday with 2 wins.  That said, 1 win over Indiana will more than likely be enough.  Selection committees haven't been kind to OSU sports recently, though, so don't blame me for being a little weary about it if the "beat Indiana/lose to MSU" scenario plays out.

The bubble is damn weak if OSU could potentially get in with 14 losses...lol

Class of 2010.

HS
BeatMeechigun's picture

While a win against MSU is a tall measure and IU will be a strong challenge, I think we ended up in possibly the best scenario possible.

A win over Rutgers or Illinois wasn't going to have the same resume boost a win over IU will.  A big if, but if the Bucks can knock out IU, I think OSU matches up better with MSU than Purdue or Michigan.  I don't think the win over MSU is needed to secure a bid, but it would sure end any doubt and protect against mid-major conference upset winners.

HS
CincyBucksFan's picture

With so much on the line, we should start CJ, Duane, Ahrens, Young, and Wesson.  We cant come out of the gate and score less than 20 in a half again and then try to come back in the second half. We need offense from the get-go

HS
FieldsofJreams's picture

Yep, 55 won’t cut it this time around.  IMO Ahrens is very efficient, he doesn’t just score he rebounds at a high rate.

HS
KBonay's picture

Remember when everyone wanted to kill for Archie Miller?

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BuckeyeBen7.7's picture

KBonay, those people who were pissed at Gene for passing on Archie are gone. They clearly never said that. It’s the internet, nobody ever admits that they were wrong. Everyone on here has been a Holtmann supporter since Matt’s was fired.

HS
tcm1968's picture

Need to beat Indiana and then not get boat raced by Sparty imo.. two wins or a win and a "good" loss... we beat the Hoosiers and then lose to Start by 30 no chance imo.. 

Go Bucks!

HS
ChefSoccerDude's picture

NIT.  Extend the season as long as possible.  Load up for the next couple of years.

Sam French

HS
Buckeye_Bandit's picture

I think they get in as a 12 seed like Lunardi currently has them. Not on their merit but because of the viewership the Buckeyes bring. It is what it is. 

HS
UrbzRenewal's picture

They're a 12 on BracketMatrix. It's the two early season road wins + weak bubble. Merit-kinda. 

HS
kareemabduljacobb's picture

Zags just lost their conference tourney to St. Mary's. Not good for the Bucks & other Bubble teams.

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I'm Ron Burgundy's picture

And St. Mary's just stole a bid by holding Gonzaga (who leads the nation avg about 90 ppg) to 47.  Didn't watch.  Did the Zags want their conference to get a 2nd bid or what?  Major head scratching upset there.

HS
kareemabduljacobb's picture

They shot 18-48 including 2-17 from 3. They played them 10 days ago and won 69-55... but in their 1st meeting the Zags beat them 94-46 lol.

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FieldsofJreams's picture

I never touch Gonzaga in my brackets.  Outside of one year since being relevant, they always disappoint.  Playing in that shit league catches up to them in March.

HS
Jvillebuck's picture

If Buffalo loses in the MAC tourney final that could bust the Buckeyes (even if OSU defeats IU).  NCAA can't possibly leave UB out of the tourney. UB has been ranked in the top 20 all year. Two schools from the MAC would hurt OSU's chances of getting in. If I were to fill out a bracket now, I'd have UB as a sweet 16 team. They're that good (with senior leadership).

"We're going to give the ball to dumb-ass and grind meat"--Woody Hayes

HS
wigmon's picture

Oklahoma loses to last place WVU.  They were "safely in" before the loss, but I think they move to the edge of the bubble with this loss.  If you compare our records, they are pretty similar.  They were 7-11 in conference, we were 8-12.  Their non-conf wins were Wofford, Creighton at home, Florida and Dayton neutral.  Our best were Cinci and Creighton road, UCLA neutral.  I'd say slight advantage to us with the road wins.  In conference, their best wins were TCU twice and Kansas at home.  TCU is a bubble team, but the Kansas win was good.  We have home wins over Iowa and MN which are tourney teams and road win against IU which is a bubble team.  I'd say slight advantage them.  Ken Pom, they are 42, we are 45.  They do have an edge in NET ranking 40 to 55 though we get a chance to move up a little in the NET with a neutral win over #51. Overall, I'd say as it sits right now, we look very comparable.  Beat IU and I think that should put us slightly ahead.

HS