"Pass, Run, Run" is the Most Successful Sequence in the Modern NFL

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Run_Fido_Run's picture

I skimmed the article, so maybe I missed it . . . but did they make an effort with their methodology to ensure they were doing apples-to-apples analysis as much as feasible?

For example, pass-pass-pass sequences are more likely to occur when the offense gets penalties and/or negative plays on first and/or second downs. Therefore, we would expect those sequences to have a lower success rate. 

Conversely, I suspect that pass-run-run sequences are more likely to follow successful gains on first and/or second downs, where the offense has favorable downs-and-distances like 3rd and 2 yards that puts defenses “in a bind.”

HS
SilverState's picture

Skimmed too but the "Expected Points" measure looks like it might incorporate that.

"There's still some green showing before you see the chalk."

HS
Keze's picture

Wow pass, run , run most successful..go figure

Throw a pas for 6 or more yards and run it 2 times to get the first down. simple.

HS
Homey1970's picture

Da doo ron ron ron, da doo ron ron ron

HS
nutabuckas's picture

Met her onna Monday and my heart stood still !

logged in just to upvote, :)

HS
Browns88's picture

Looking at that pic of Micheal.   Must have huge hands cause that football looks like a small nerd ball

Browns88

HS
BuckeyeKing02's picture

Interesting study.  If they are looking to take their analysis to the college level, I would like to see the analysis on running Braxton or JT Barrett instead of a marquee RB (i.e. Carlos Hyde or Zeke) in short down and distance situations.

HS
gumtape's picture

I wonder if this still applies if your quarterback is named bauserman or bellisari.

High and tight boo boo

HS
Dillon G's picture

Here are the results:

It is always good to see stats on things you already know are true. I sure as hell don't need 538 to tell me Paul Brown is a genius. The lanes opened for Zeke when Cardale Jones hit Devin Smith deep a few times. You could say the flood gates opened. Not having 8 or even 9 in the box made those long runs. 

#walkaway

HS
booj's picture

how do you make inferrences on three-event sequences when the sequences are not necessarily bundled into groups of three? do 12 yard runs on 1st and 10 get counted? 

HS