"Pass, Run, Run" is the Most Successful Sequence in the Modern NFL

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Run_Fido_Run's picture

I skimmed the article, so maybe I missed it . . . but did they make an effort with their methodology to ensure they were doing apples-to-apples analysis as much as feasible?

For example, pass-pass-pass sequences are more likely to occur when the offense gets penalties and/or negative plays on first and/or second downs. Therefore, we would expect those sequences to have a lower success rate. 

Conversely, I suspect that pass-run-run sequences are more likely to follow successful gains on first and/or second downs, where the offense has favorable downs-and-distances like 3rd and 2 yards that puts defenses “in a bind.”

SilverState's picture

Skimmed too but the "Expected Points" measure looks like it might incorporate that.

"There's still some green showing before you see the chalk."

Keze's picture

Wow pass, run , run most successful..go figure

Throw a pas for 6 or more yards and run it 2 times to get the first down. simple.

Homey1970's picture

Da doo ron ron ron, da doo ron ron ron

nutabuckas's picture

Met her onna Monday and my heart stood still !

logged in just to upvote, :)

Browns88's picture

Looking at that pic of Micheal.   Must have huge hands cause that football looks like a small nerd ball


BuckeyeKing02's picture

Interesting study.  If they are looking to take their analysis to the college level, I would like to see the analysis on running Braxton or JT Barrett instead of a marquee RB (i.e. Carlos Hyde or Zeke) in short down and distance situations.

gumtape's picture

I wonder if this still applies if your quarterback is named bauserman or bellisari.

High and tight boo boo

Dillon G's picture

Here are the results:

It is always good to see stats on things you already know are true. I sure as hell don't need 538 to tell me Paul Brown is a genius. The lanes opened for Zeke when Cardale Jones hit Devin Smith deep a few times. You could say the flood gates opened. Not having 8 or even 9 in the box made those long runs. 


booj's picture

how do you make inferrences on three-event sequences when the sequences are not necessarily bundled into groups of three? do 12 yard runs on 1st and 10 get counted?