New QBs, Hype, and Small Sample Sizes

ziplock007's picture
August 20, 2014 at 1:50 am

Let's not pretend any of us know how successful JT Barrett or Cardell Jones will fare in 2014.  In 10 days we'll have an idea. OSU will beat Navy about 31-17... and let the hype begin... we'll say his 2 TD passes are 'way ahead of schedule' for someone his age... His leadership and athleticism were vastly underrated...

We'll do all this after game one.... You know what they say about foresight?  It ain't hindsight.


Obviously 2014 will not be a repeat of 2011.  But there's a great example of the dangers of extrapolating from a small sample size.

On opening day 2011, Luke Fickell's team led by QB Joe Bauserman effortlessly defeated Akron.  Then the hype began.

Ramzy made a Nostrodamian prediction with his post game rhetoric entitled, "The Return of Good Throw Joe"

Yes, Ramzy's article was written with hyperbole and a hint of unwarranted grandiose.  He really wasn't nominating him as the new Joe Germaine, but it wasn't meant to be a total joke... Bauserman was 3rd in QBR after week 1.  His 12-16 performance was actually a very promising start and OSU moved up in polls to #15.  I like Ramzy's words better.

"Very suddenly Bauserman was a viable passer. In December when Pryor was suspended for the first five games of the season, the outlook of the 2011 Ohio State passing game - at least through Game Five - was bleak.  It took Bauserman only two plays to upgrade that scope from mediocre to promising."

"As it turned out, we only thought we knew who Bauserman was. We had no idea what he could be."

"Bauseman did not throw the ball; he simply raised his arm and it departed from his hand - not to where Stoneburner was, but to where he would eventually be... Bauserman left the game having shown complete command of an offense that neither appeared to be simplified or overly-conservative. He was accurate, poised, resourceful, controlled and humble."

One week later Bauserman proved the opposite with a win almost loss vs. hapless Toledo.  The following week he went 2-14 with 13 yards in a losing effort vs. Miami.  After being shelved for true Freshman Miller, Bauserman took over after a Miller ankle sprain with his infamous Nebraska performance.  Not only did he blow a 3 TD lead with a 1-10 performance... the sad thing was, it wasn't even a good 1-10 performance.

Bauserman was not a "viable passer" nor was he "accurate, poised, resourceful, controlled and humble."  This was merely a prediction from a small sample size.

While 2014 can't be a repeat of 2011... Let's not sing JT's praises after 18 pass attempts to Top Ten Recruits against a team bereft of future NFL defenders.


btw - I'm a HUGE Ramzy fan... but somehow that article popped in my head when I heard Braxton would miss the season

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