Weekly Probabilities - special friday edition!

Goalscorer9's picture
November 8, 2013 at 5:58 am

I figure after the big result last night, some of you might appreciate a special Friday probabilities update :).  I've been telling you guys not to worry, trust the numbers.  Last night we got one step closer.  For now I'm not going to include Baylor, if the polls start to give us cause to worry, then I'll work them in later.

So here's the numbers!  Again, although the process is objective, I acknowledge my probabilities of individual games are subjective, though I think this gives us a pretty good picture of where we are at.
As always, my numbers will be attached for anyone who would like to critique.
-Ohio State finishes undefeated.  This whole argument starts with "If Ohio State goes undefeated", so we'll assume they do to calculate probabilities
-If Alabama or Florida State finish undefeated, they will remain ahead of Ohio State.
-No 1 loss team will finish in front of an undefeated Ohio State
-Baylor, Fresno State, and Northern Illinois will not jump Ohio State, even if they finish undefeated
Numbers you care about:
-Probability Alabama wins out: 29.5%
-Probability Florida State wins out: 43.1%
-Probability both of them lose, and Ohio State finishes numero uno: 40.1%
-And most importantly, the probability that at least one of these teams lose, and an undefeated Ohio State team finishes in the top 2: 87.3%
Obviously, it's not a sure thing, but we're looking pretty good right now.  I'll repeat the very first thought I had in the very first probabilities post: going undefeated is hard.

For those of you who would like to include the possibility of Ohio State losing:
-Probability of Ohio State winning out- 50.1%
-No undefeated assumption odds of Ohio State being in the national championship game- 43.8%

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