Weekly Probabilities 10/22

Goalscorer9's picture
October 22, 2013 at 2:17 pm

Here they are!  Thanks to Buckeyes8222, I remember how to do the more complicated calculations now.  Again, although the process is objective, I acknowledge my probabilities of individual games are subjective, though I think this gives us a pretty good picture of where we are at.  As always, my numbers will be attached for anyone who would like to critique.
-Ohio State finishes undefeated.  This whole argument starts with "If Ohio State goes undefeated", so we'll assume they do to calculate probabilities
-If Alabama, Florida State, Oregon, Mizzouri, or Miami finish undefeated, they will jump Ohio State.
-No 1 loss team will finish in front of an undefeated Ohio State
-Baylor, Texas Tech, Fresno State, and Northern Illinois will not jump Ohio State, even if they finish undefeated
Numbers you care about:
-Probability Alabama wins out: 26.6%
-Probability Oregon wins out: 18%
-Probability Florida State wins out: 22.2%
-Probability Mizzouri wins out: 3.2%
-Probability Miami wins out: 5.4%
-Probability all of them lose, and Ohio State finishes numero uno: 42.9%
-And most importantly, the probability that at least 4 out of these 5 teams lose, and an undefeated Ohio State team finishes in the top 2: 85.4%
Is it a sure thing?  No.  But 85.4% is pretty good odds.  Try not to worry so much.

For those of you who would like to include the possibility of Ohio State losing:
-Probability of Ohio State winning out- 37.2%
-Unbiased odds of Ohio State being in the national championship game- 31.8%

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