Could we really lose to Indiana?

baddogmaine's picture
October 10, 2012 at 7:41 am

In his Wednesday skull session Chad observes:

 YARRRGH IT'S A TRAP. Meyer spoke briefly about his concerns for Indiana this week during the B1G teleconference:
    Meyer said he's concerned about execution on defense and stopping Indiana because Hoosiers do things off. that OSU has struggled with.
    — Kyle Rowland (@KyleRowland) October 9, 2012
While some have joked about Ohio State running up the score on Indiana, I don't think scoring will be the issue in this game - it'll be the Indiana offense.

Team Rankings has us as only 86.5% likely to beat Indiana. Not to cover the spread - TR is not optimistic about us covering - but to win by any margin. They list us as one of the prohibative favorites most likely to get upset. AACC will destroy IL, FSU will destroy BC, ASU will demolish CO, but we are only four-stars-out-of-five likely to win according to TR.
The quick response is that Team Rankings doesn't know what they're talking about, but really no one knows in advance what will happen, and TR are no worse than others, and by actually looking at data are better than many.
Chad touches on some concerns - IN's quick passing attack, new OSU LB. Add in depth problems on the o-line, defensive secondary and - as long as Hall is hurt - RB (one good carry against a downtrodden NE does not establish Smith as a workhorse) and we are one injury away from the wheels possibly falling off.
My feeling had been that this is the first game in a while I have felt comfortable about. Since the Miami game I have had concerns about our defense. I still worry that we are too dependent on Braxton, and I don't like all-eggs-in-one-braxket. Even in the MSU game I saw struggles on both sides. But I was convinced by the beating we put on the Cornhuskers that even if our defense is still too bendy for my tastes our offense might make us the WVU of the B1G. I had been ready to predict a laugher on Saturday but the cynic in me is starting to grumble that 17 points is too big for a defense that stops the run but not so much the pass.
What do thinking readers think? I take it as a given that we will all never accept in advance that this Buckeye team could lose to this Hoosier team. But is there really a one-in-seven chance of an upset, as Team Ranking is publicly saying? Are we really less of a lock than AACC, ASU, FSU?  If so why? Let's get some opinions out here before the talking heads, including 11W staff, tell us what to think.

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