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smartfootballrankings


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Comment 07 Dec 2014

This seems to be something commonly posted, but it's completely inaccurate.  Betting lines are designed to maximize profit for casinos.  If lines were off by large amounts from the best available information, syndicates with large backers would come in and dominate and bankrupt the casinos.  This would be incredibly easy for a hedge fund type entity to come in, get a few experts, create a few models, and just make bank.

Strangely, the casinos are still around, and these entities don't exist in any large quantity, because the lines are pretty damn accurate.  I knew we were golden when I saw the lines moving on "Ohio State will make the playoffs" from -130 to -580 this morning.  Someone knew something and was betting.

Now there's some element of getting suckers to bet on the wrong side of things and giving up a small amount to the pros.  But lines are rarely that far off of reality.  Football has a huge amount of variance, so it's easy to say "look how bad that line was from reality!", but in the long run, the house always wins.

Comment 20 Aug 2014

Lots of people say this, but it doesn't make it true.  You are confusing a Sports Book with a Betting Exchange.  They are two different entities.  While it's true that some sports books due try to limit exposure by attempting to get nearly equal action, their goal is mostly to maximize profits.  This means having sucker bets out there that the public will eat up and they are happy to cover the other side.

Your method of moving the line does not help once the bets came in.  This just gives the opportunity to attempt to middle, with the book on the hook for cases where they pay out to someone guaranteed.  Sports books will know their lines are not always perfect, and if there is too much money coming in on one side, they'll move the line because the sharp money typically will hit first and indicate where the sports book erred.  The sharps can profit on smaller bets, but the big money comes in later when the lines are closer to true or still even skewed against the public.

The other part you are missing is there is no other side in futures bets like this.  You cannot bet "Ohio State will not win the title" directly.  You can only bet on every single other team, in some amounts, including a Field Bet.  So there is no other side to move the line in this case.  Not that you were even correct in spread bets or money line bets where you can take either side.

Comment 04 Jan 2014

This "Hyde works, nothing else does" is nonsense.  Brax was getting 9.8 yards per attempt.  Huge TDs or almost TDs on big passes.  Hyde works to set up those kinds of plays, that actually do damage.  Constantly feeding Hyde and not deviating ends up in long drives that end up with FGs or punts.  You must give him the ball enough so that they must stack the box, but not so that Hyde can pound the ball, but so we can make big plays.  Big plays win games, not 3 yards and a cloud of dust.

Comment 08 Dec 2013

They were stopping Hyde plenty once they realized that's all they had to stop.

Hyde Carries by length and Q

1st Q - 6, 2, 5, 9

2nd Q - 2, 2, 3, 8

3rd Q- 18, 6, 3, 11, 10, 8, 12, 6

4th Q- 4, 3

 

Certainly Hyde needs to be a big part of the offense, but you can't just give it to him constantly and expect it to always work.  Especially on obvious situations where they know he is coming up the middle.  MSU too good to let that happen.  They need to be spread out and threatened downfield for Hyde to be able to get solid yards.

Notice he is pretty much neutralized in the first half.  2 big runs, 2 decent runs, and 4 crap runs.  Against MSU, who won't let a big run through, you are eventually going to have to punt with that kind of yardage.  This is typical Silver Bullet D, bend but do not break.  Eventually he gets stuffed and it's 3rd and long.  You have to keep getting consistent yardage, and MSU defense is too strong to not get a good stop once or twice a series.

So what happened in the 3rd Q that made him look a lot better?  Let's look at the play before a Hyde big run.

18 yards - play before was incomplete pass to Heuerman.

11 yards -  1st play of drive, but previous drive had Brax pass and Brax run for TD.

10 yards - 1st play of drive, previous drive had 2 passes and a Brax scramble.

8 yards - Hall Rush for 13 yards

12 yards - Pass to Philly

You have to set Hyde up for success.  If you cannot get any other offense going, Hyde isn't going to be that productive against a good defense like MSU.  If you can, and they need to play the whole field, Hyde can have a decent game.  It's even harder when you are also playing from behind, where huge clock-eating drives are your enemy, and a punt after a long drive is disastrous.

Hyde ran on 18 out of 63 plays.  Brax ran on 20 (a few were pass plays that he ran on), and there were 25 pass attempts or sacks.

Seems to me that the offense did the best they could against that talented of a D, Hyde maybe could have gotten a hair more, but it's not like he was gashing them every time he touched it.

Comment 08 Dec 2013

To all the fools blaming this on the offense-

http://www.smartfootballrankings.com/teams?team=518&season=2013

Look at the "ratings" column.  Our offense performed 50% above an average FBS offense does against MSU.  For the entire season, FSU performed an average of 40% better than an average offense (and they were #1 in offense).

Our defense performed at a level 17% worse than an AVERAGE FBS defense would against MSU.  This would have been 109th place, just ahead of Cal, if we did that poorly our entire season.

The offense put up 24 points against the best defense in the country.  They did their job.  Scoring 24 on Sparty should be enough to win.  You cannot count on getting more against them.   Only 2 teams did all season - Indiana did with the benefit of 2 turnovers and getting blown out (1 TD in garbage time), and Nebraska did (another garbage time TD, in a blowout).  Nebraska was the only team to get above 6 YPP on MSU (we got 5.937, Nebraska 6.125, and their next closest was 4.743 against Indiana).

Comment 08 Dec 2013

You should look up how the bowl games are selected.  There is an order.  No one wants UCF, so whoever gets the last pick picks UCF.  Baylor is locked to Fiesta.  So that means that UCF vs. Baylor.

Pick order is (assuming FSU is #1, Auburn #2):

1) Orange

2) Sugar

3) Orange

4) Sugar

5) Fiesta

Alabama will likely be top 4, so they have to be picked somewhere.  No other SEC teams can go, so that leaves Ohio State, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Oregon (maybe ASU if they stay top 14) as the likely eligible teams.  Orange takes Clemson to replace FSU, Sugar takes Bama, Orange takes Ohio State, Sugar takes Oregon or Oklahoma, and Fiesta takes UCF.

Comment 03 Dec 2013

Neither of us are playing for it.  Sparty should be going to the Rose no matter what.  We are going to make Orange Juice of Clemson or get Jameis'ed in Pasadena.

Comment 01 Dec 2013

He just was assuming dumb things.  It's really tough for a 1 loss team to be ranked ahead in computers unless their schedules are vastly different.  Simply because there are usually multiple 1 loss teams, and they are all competing for that spot.  Auburn still has to compete with Alabama for the best 1 loss spot, along with Oklahoma State.  They lucked out a bit with Clemson losing.

The voters could try some nasty stuff like voting Ohio State 8th or something (one dumbass from Detroit already did this), and with the end of the BCS, there is little to lose as a coach, but either way, Auburns potential win next week isn't better than what they already did, and they didn't move much, and Ohio State's game next week is close enough to Auburns that it's very unlikely to matter.

Comment 17 Nov 2013

Everyone blaming this on the media - 

Why is it that Baylor is higher than the Ohio State in nearly every computer ranking system (including those that include margin of victory and those that don't)?  Are they biased by ESPN?

http://www.masseyratings.com/ranks.php?s=cf2013

Also, Baylor is higher than Alabama in most, as well.  I agree with this assessment.