I think no chance for LSU, simply because SEC. During his three years in Columbus, I think there were a few discussions about why Urban left Florida, the stress, the unrealistic fan expectations, etc. As laid back as Herman is, I do not see him entering that cesspool while he has so many options.
Texas would seem like the obvious frontrunner, but I would not rule out staying in Houston. Only he knows how his recruiting there is trending. And he has a pretty good idea of how it is going in Austin, since they are pretty much going head to head much of the time. If Houston gets in the Big 12, and has a manageable path to the playoffs, I could definitely see him staying.