Run_Fido_Run's picture


Member since 30 August 2010 | Blog


  • MLB TEAM: Cincinnati Reds

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Comment 20 hours ago

Coop, this is an excellent example of a brief bio: you do a great job of telling Mercury's story using only 700 words or so, which is hard to do. Especially when the subject lived such a rich life, with so many professional accomplishments, as Freddie Mercury. 

Mercury could flat out sing. 

Comment 20 hours ago

The difference is, when you're cougar hunting, you probably won't have to deal with a grumpy old man (coach) screaming at you, from across the bar, "You little s---, you're going to strike out with that broad!"

Comment 20 hours ago

Maybe I'm grasping at straws, but Murphy's Law of Media Narratives just might bail out the Buckeyes from last Saturday's woeful performance. Obviously, this week's games will be decided on the field, but if things do break right for Buckeyes, it'll almost seem like the the microwaveable "hot takes" media narratives were begging to be disproved. In addition to the hot take you're alluding to (i.e., "this over-hyped team was always getting ready to implode, blah, blah"), other hot takes will get cooked up this week:

  • Ohio State's OL and DL are soft and cannot hold up against tough, rugged teams like MSU and Michigan 
  • Changing of the Guard: Harbaugh --> Meyer    
  • Michigan State = darkhorse team to win the National Championship
  • Etc.

The other interesting "narrative" angle is that Murphy doesn't like it when a perfectly good tragedy/excuse goes to waste. So, Sparty got screwed against Nebraska, but now that cruel turn of events no longer matters. Well, Murphy might have something to say about that and, if he does, the "if only Sparty hand't gotten screwed in Lincoln" narrative will be put on steroids, especially in East Lansing. There's a chance that Murphy will decide that the cruel fate associated with that one bad call should not be allowed to simply fade into non-importance.

Comment 20 Nov 2015

Why did the Spartan boy run away from home?

He didn't like the way he was being reared. 

Comment 20 Nov 2015

One way for us to "check" on Cook's status is for Bosa to plant him firmly onto the turf on the first series of the game tomorrow. Nothing dirty - in fact, Bosa would be performing a public service, by helping to inform the public. 

Comment 20 Nov 2015

Many of us have been surprised by how productive Sparty's offense has been in recent seasons despite MSU having Bollman on staff. Well, it looks like Sparty is now beginning to experience Walrus Mode in fuller effect. Walrus Mode is when your office runs the ball 70 percent of the time, yet ranks 80th or 90th in rushing yards per game. The main thing that is keeping Sparty's offense relatively productive this season despite Walrus Mode is that Cook is really good. Let's hope that the Silver Bullets make life miserable for Cook tomorrow so that we can appreciate watching Walrus Mode in all its glory.

Comment 20 Nov 2015

Bosa is better now - more disciplined - against misdirection plays compared to last season and he's night and day better than he was in 2013, when he was a raw freshman, freak athlete just doing his thing. Meanwhile, Tyquan Lewis was practically born to be fundamentally sound and an instinctive player.

In addition, the DBs and outside LBs are very quick, excellent open field tacklers, and are becoming more disciplines and instinctive in the second year of Ash's system. They've been destroying bubble screens, etc. Might they still be prone to getting out of position on misdirection plays? Possibly, but I like their closing speed to mitigate those threats to a large extent.

Unless MSU can borrow Derrick Henry or Fournette for this game, or they find a dynamic running QB, I like the Silver Bullets' chances.

Comment 19 Nov 2015

Now I'm no math major, far from it actually, but I'm fairly certain that there is absolutely no way for anyone to calculate win probability in a manner that would be even the least bit legit. 

In my mind, you're right that these types of multiple game probability guesses are pretty much witch science. The main reason that they might be useful, anyway, isn't that the probably guesses would be reliably accurate; it's for gambling purposes, i.e. that they're hopefully more predictive than the highly imperfect guesses being made by other linesmakers or other gamblers. If these guesses are less imperfect than the alternatives, then money can be made on them.

Comment 19 Nov 2015

This is hilarious, by itself, but now I think it would be cool if that Michigan fan was sort of "painted into" The Scream painting in an expressionist style . . .

Comment 19 Nov 2015

Thanks! Now that I think about it, though, my premise was stupid in the first place. I gather that, in general, if we take all the QB numbers in the aggregate, that completion percentages tend to be lower on third down. Obviously, on third and longs, the offense mostly loses the dual threat "element of surprise." On first down, QBs are often content to "check down" to RBs and throw little bubble screens, happy to get five yards and get "ahead of the chains." But on 3rd and 12, a five yard completion doesn't get it done.

So, is there a way for us to compare Cook's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down completion rates compared to the median average for each of those downs, so to speak?

Comment 19 Nov 2015

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I don't hate Herbie. I would say that I don't really hate anyone, but that's not really true (e.g., ISIS). 

What I've long said about Herbie is that he has a thin skin, is a diva, and is only okay as a pre-game, in-game, and/or past-game analyst. I could be wrong about these three points, which are a matter of opinion, but they're valid criticisms of him as a professional:if he's a thin-skinned diva that effects how he does his job and, obviously, if he's not a great analyst, that directly relates to how he does his job.

Keep in mind that every college football analyst in the media must deal with unpleasant and/or unhinged people who disagree with them. Most of them deal with this challenge without having such thin skins.

Another example of a media guy who might be categorized as a college football analyst who has somewhat of a thin-skin is Mark Packer on Serius. The difference is that, instead of getting petty, Mark Packer usually proceeds to brutally undress the flaws in his opponents' arguments. At times, I want to call into his show and ask, "why don't you argue with someone who can punch back?'"But I also have to admire his skill. Besides, Mark Packer is pretty much the best at what he does, period. 

In contrast, a can think of 5 or 6 college football analysts off the top of my head who are better than Herbie. And I've never thought to myself, after Herbie got embroiled in an argument with an idiot, "wow, that was a brutal takedown by Herbie." Heck, when Herbie argues with the idiots on Twitter, it's pretty much a stalemate. What does that tell you?

Comment 19 Nov 2015

I would like to see Cook's completion percentage on 3rd down, though. My impression is that he's "money" when the chips are down. 

In theory, MSU's offense shouldn't be good this season on 3rd down conversion percentage. They don't run the ball well and they have a relatively immobile QB. Yet, they're actually 9th in the country with a 0.493 conversion rate. 

The reason that MSU's offense has been able to convert third downs "against the grain" so to speak is that Cook is really good: as you say, he might be inconsistent, but he can "make any throw" and drop balls into tight windows. Sparty probably had the toughest time converting 3rd downs (only 3 FDs on 13 tries) when they played at Michigan. But their running game was especially woeful that day (58 yards net rushing) and Sparty's receivers dropped several balls that Cook had dropped into tight windows. 

The lesson for Ohio State is (a). to completely stifle MSU's run game and (b). hit Cook at every opportunity. The weather forecast is calling for cold and drizzly. Between the unforgiving passing conditions and Cook's banged up shoulder, the percentages would figure to work against Sparty. When Cook throws into tight windows this Saturday, deflected and/or bobbled passes are liable to end up the Vonn Bell Academy. Moreover, if Cook has to pay a price for every last-second downfield throw he makes, he'll run out of house money even faster.

Comment 19 Nov 2015

I'm probably one of the worst (or most frequent) offenders when it comes to calling Herbie thin skinned. I don't recall ever get especially riled up by any of his comments. Maybe you can cite some of my past comments to the contrary (I'm not expecting you to do my homework for me, but obviously I can't prove a negative).

I used to listen to Herbie's local 1460 radio call in show like 10 to 15 years ago. Any time a caller challenged his opinions, Herbie would lash out and get testy. At the time, I was predisposed to like him. He was an ex-OSU QB who was beginning to use a national microphone to promote Ohio high school football, etc. This was before the 2004 murmurings and long before Tatgate. Nevertheless, when he showed his a-- on local radio, I almost felt embarrassed for him. In other words, a lot of us recognized that Herbie had a thin skin before he said anything controversial about the Ohio State football program. 

Comment 18 Nov 2015

So, let me get this straight? Herbie clarifies now - five years after letting the "crazy Buckeye fans drove him out of town!" narrative fester - that it wasn't really like that.

Of course, some of us suspected that it was mostly rubbish all along. I do appreciate that he's corrected the record now and it takes some cojones to apologize here, so I think more highly of him now than I did before listening to this interview. I totally respect him not wanting to live in the fishbowl. I sure as hell wouldn't want to, either. I still feel like his thin skin and diva tendencies help to explain why it took five years to say this - was it really that hard? - but better late than never.

I will say, though, that the Herbie apologists - and we have many here on 11W - should acknowledge they were wrong in purveying the "crazy fan" narrative. They insisted these crazy incidents actually happened and maligned anyone who was skeptical about these tales. My point isn't to say, "I told you so." It's to use this mea cupola from Herbie to preach the gospel i'm always pushing (although not effectively) that we always need to try to gain a wider perspective on things.  

Comment 18 Nov 2015

I have a feeling that this game is going to be Zeke's version of Eddie's 314 yards v. ILL in 1995 game. It's looking like similar weather conditions: chilly, drizzly November game that starts in the daylight at 3:30, but is dark in the second half. Like ILL in 1995, the Sparty defense this season is perhaps living on the reputation that the program had built in the previous few seasons. After that 1995 game, the "narrative" on ILL' defense, which had been an intimidating force in the early 90s, was deflated and they never really regained that reputation, IIRC. 

How 'bout Zeke runs for 341 yards instead of 314, chants of Zeeeeeeke! rain down from the upper deck, the crowd stays on its feet all game to stay warm, and Zeke makes a monstrous Heisman statement like Eddie did in November of 1995?

Comment 18 Nov 2015

I'm watching the bTN Football in 60 replay of the MSU v Maryland game from this past Saturday. Sparty's main RB at this point is Gerald Holmes. My impression is that Holmes is an efficient runner, but is not a gifted, dynamic runner. If the Silver Bullets can win at the l-o-s, Holmes is not equipped to carve out, or create, bunch yards on his own. However, if MSU's OL is able to achieve a stalemate, Holmes will be pesky, consistently picking up what's available on that play. 

Comment 16 Nov 2015

OptimistBuckeyePessimist is not the least bit crazy. In fact, he's an excellent contributor to this site and an all around good guy. I actually picked on him here for that very reason: here's a smart, rational "realist" who has been wrong about this program numerous times the last few seasons. We all make mistakes, but my larger point would be that realism can be as much of a cognitive trap/distortion as homerism can be. 

I'm not sure that you actually understand what realism means, though. Oxford's (short version) definition of realism is as follows: "The attitude or practice of accepting a situation as it is and being prepared to deal with it accordingly."

Your definition of a realist doesn't work very well because a Buckeye fan could be a completely delusional homer, but maybe has a really mellow personality and is not inclined to get upset about what someone in the media says. Or, he could fancy himself as a realist, and say highly critical things about the Buckeyes when he's drinking with his fellow Buckeye fans, but get very upset when he hears similar comments from the media (sort of like when Catholics get mad at non-Catholics for criticizing their religion/denomination, but have no problem with other Catholics doing it).

Comment 16 Nov 2015

There was a boy named Cook,
whose sister was well worth a look.
  Connor’s glory can’t compare,
  To what Jackie can bare,  
when the party boat’s off the hook.

Comment 16 Nov 2015

Wrong. Off the top of my head . . . 

  • The 100s of "fire Fickell" threads from 2012 - 2014
  • The 100s of threads critical of Tom Herman's play calling and overall direction of the offense from 2012 - 2014.
  • Before the game against MSU last season, OptimisticBuckeyePessimist - who is a really good guy, btw - argued that Ohio State would have to play almost perfect football to beat Sparty; instead, the Buckeyes muffed punts and made numerous other blunders against MSU, but still blew them out of the water.
  • Immediately after the Michigan game last year, DefendYoungstown commented, "With TCU thumping TX we're done.  We needed to treat ttun like a rented mule today and let them hang around into the 4th quarter.  I have a feeling it's always going to be 'next year' with UFM at tOSU, just like the browns.  We can recruit all the talent we want but if you don't have coaches that can put the talent in positions and themes to execute you're going to fall short every time.  In the end, we were better off with JT Barrett this year, he has a better arm and truly comprehends the offense." Later in that thread, JbirmM offered this nugget, "I just don't see how we win again this year. I thought early in the year that when Braxton went down we were playing for 2015, JT made me rethink that. But now I'm back to it. We're playing with house money. Root hard for Minnesota, our only chance to win the B1G championship is to play them, not Wisconsin."
  • Here's what OBP wrote before the Wisconsin game (sorry to pick on you, OBP): "I think Gordon is going to have a good night against our defense.  I think we will fall behind early as our offense will still be adjusting to the new QB and getting some things worked out.  Hate to say it, but Wisc 35 - OSU 31, as we play catch up all game."
  • Pretty much every realist on 11W predicted that Ohio State would lose to Bama in the semi-finals last season.
  • Etc., etc. 

Have you ever participated in any of the live game threads? 

Comment 16 Nov 2015

Ohio State certainly hasn't covered well this season, but the MSU game figures to be the sort of situation where the Buckeyes will play closer to their form.

When the game kicks off, crazy things can happen. Sparty is still a very good team and their players always have huge chips on their shoulders when they play against Ohio State, especially when their Ohio-based kids play in Ohio Stadium (many of their were not aggressively recruited by Ohio State, if at all). You could do a lot worse than getting +13 on MSU.

At the same time, let's say, for sake of argument, that the line had opened at Ohio State -9. In that scenario, I'd be very concerned if I had money on Sparty and the following pattern had emerged: when the line opened at -9, a handful of very large bets were placed on Ohio State, which forced Vegas linemakers to make an abrupt correction to -13. Small bets start flooding in MSU later in the week, and the line eventually settles at -11.5. In theory, you should feel good if you could MSU +13 from your bookie, and yet you're on the wrong side of all the "smart money" (only a 10 - 12 point Ohio State victory at that point would get both you and the smart money paid).  

Well, by opening the line at -13, Vegas maybe avoided some of their exposure to the above scenario, but you'd still have to ask yourself: why is the smart money uninterested in Sparty +13?

Comment 16 Nov 2015

P.s., I think you have the right idea. On paper, it looks like it should be about Ohio State -9, but the Vegas line opened at -13, which should send up red flags for Sparty backers.

The reason that Vegas set the line so high is that they thought they'd get hammered by big syndicates betting Ohio State at single digits right out of the gate and then they'd not be able to make up the difference later in the week. 

Why would they see it that way? Aside from the serious handicappers seeing this Sparty team is a overrated, maybe the Vegas lines makers week are concerned that, as this week unfolds, Connor Cook's health would get progressively more worrisome. At that point, they've already taken heavy action on Ohio State -9 and really have no way to go from there. 

Comment 16 Nov 2015

How much money did you lose last year betting Sparty against Ohio State?