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rock flag and eagle


Member since 17 June 2013 | Blog

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Comment 06 Dec 2014
What makes you think the committee will evaluate teams in terms of top 25 wins? Why not top 30 wins? Why not top 22 wins? It's arbitrary. But, according to sagarin's ranking, tcu has 4 top 30 opponents, Baylor has 4, OSU will have 2 after tonight.
Comment 06 Dec 2014

South Carolina got destroyed by Auburn in the SEC championship game in 2010, after narrowly losing earlier in the year.  Stanford beat ASU twice last year.  In 2012, Standford beat UCLA twice in two weeks.

Not always.

Comment 04 Dec 2014

OSU did a good job, but that was also Kelly's first season.  They were ranked 33rd in total offense that year.  They weren't elite or anything.  The subsequent seasons, Kelly had the 1st, 4th and 5th offenses nationally.  That's not the kind of offense anyone wants to face.  

Comment 03 Dec 2014
that's true, but OSU probably has the toughest. none of those teams face up player like Melvin Gordon. or, the number 2 defense in the country.
Comment 03 Dec 2014
that's true. Wisconsin has an even weaker schedule than OSU, according to sagarin. (61st vs. 60th)
Comment 03 Dec 2014
I somehow suspect that if OSU had only lost to a top ten opponent, and another team with a 6-6 loss was threatening to take OSU's playoff spot, you wouldn't take the same stance.
Comment 03 Dec 2014
beating bowl opponents is only valuable if the committee thinks that bowl-bound opponents are good teams. But there are too many bowl games, and lots of poor teams are bowl eligible. why do you favor the bowl eligibility metric, over aggregate strength of schedule?
Comment 03 Dec 2014
I don't think they screwed Wisconsin. Other objective grading services have them behind KSU. for instance, Sagarin has Kansas State at 12th, Ohio State 13th and Wisconsin at 15th. the rationale, is that ohio state wisconsin had much easier schedules than KSU (40th, 60th, 61st,) it's actually quite objective to take ease of schedule into consideration.
Comment 03 Dec 2014
when Evanston wrote that FSU hasn't lost in ages, it doesn't matter if they were talking about this year or this year and last year combined. they haven't lost this year, and that's what matters.
Comment 03 Dec 2014
Minnesota isn't ranked. That's the way the committee looks at things. They look at the whole body of work. ECU doesn't get credit for beating a top 25 VT now. They get credit for beating a lousy VT. Turns out, with the season over, that Minnesota wasn't a top 25 team this year
Comment 02 Dec 2014
the West Virginia loss is not all that similar to the Virginia Tech loss. here are some differences: West Virginia is 7 - 5, Virginia Tech is 6 - 6. Ohio State lost at home, Baylor lost on the road. according to Sagarin, west virginia played the 10th most difficult schedule in the country. Virginia Tech played the 50th most difficult schedule, and still has the worst record. Sagarin has West Virginia ranked 28th, and they are also receiving votes in one of the polls. Virginia Tech is not receiving votes, & Sagarin has them ranked 50th. no, the losses aren't all that similar. 1 is a bad loss, the other is horrible. the best argument is one you already made. Ohio State could theoretically have 12 wins compared to Baylor's 11. that's the argument to make.
Comment 29 Nov 2014
your first point seems to undercut your argument. Yes OSU won with a second string qb, but suggesting they might be able to do it again is a problem. Because any other team who loses qb1 can use your logic and say if OSU did it, why can't we. If the logic is an inexperienced guy can come in and win with the right coaching, then Baylor is in great position. Qb guru in art briles. And Seth Russell has played way more this year, and with much better much bets stats, than Jones. Wouldn't the odds of another Barrett success story be in Baylor,'s favor (second stringer vs third, better performance to date)?
Comment 29 Nov 2014
I'm honor of his bumbling ways and his own obsession with branding, May I suggest the drunk tank be named the "Dave Brandon 'quit drinking and go to bed' drunk tank."
Comment 29 Nov 2014
Actually, Alabama is 7-1 against top 30 opposition, according to Sagarin. His formula also finds that Alabama had the 5th toughest schedule to date. For a reference point, OSU is 1-0 against top 30 teams. Alabama has played more than enough quality opposition this year.
Comment 29 Nov 2014
OSU and Baylor both had their qbs knocked out of the game. Baylor had to play most of the second half without Petty. After that, they had trouble moving the ball and keeping Texas Tech's offense off the field. They also tried to run clock to keep their backup qb from making mistakes. This helped TTU score 29 points late. The big difference between the Baylor and OSU situation is that Petty has a high likelihood of being ready for bowl season. Barrett is out for the postseason. Baylor was in firm control of the game 35-17 before petty was injured. And they'll be full strength by the bowl games.
Comment 29 Nov 2014
for a long time, the Ohio State narrative has been "we are the most improved team in the country" and "we are playing as well or better than any one in the country." that was the justification made by Buckeye advocates for why the Virginia Tech loss is forgivable. those justifications, especially those that reference improvement, were largely based on JT Barrett's performance post- Virginia Tech. without Barrett, those vociferous justifications cease to hold much water
Comment 21 Nov 2014

You are correct.  The Big Ten absolutely has a hand in which team plays where, against whom, other than New Year's tie-ins. According to the ESPN B1G blog:

The Big Ten really wants to avoid repeat bowl destinations and even repeat postseason areas for teams. The league will ask each bowl to submit its top three choices for participants and then match teams based on where they've been in the past, who the opponent could be and other factors. Basically, the Big Ten is in charge here, not the bowls.

This is how the playoff has affected the bowl system.  It is not an SEC scandal.

http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/110393/big-ten-bowl-projections-week-10-4

Comment 21 Nov 2014

You're right.  The conferences play a major part in scheduling bowls (in the playoff era). It's not a scandal that SEC or Big Ten officials want to help their teams with recruiting and publicity through bowl placement. Here's an article from the ESPN big ten blog that explains how the B1G dictates which teams play in which bowls.  http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/110393/big-ten-bowl-projections-week-10-4

The Big Ten really wants to avoid repeat bowl destinations and even repeat postseason areas for teams. The league will ask each bowl to submit its top three choices for participants and then match teams based on where they've been in the past, who the opponent could be and other factors. Basically, the Big Ten is in charge here, not the bowls.

Notice that one criterion is "WHO THE OPPONENT COULD BE."  The Big Ten wants to avoid stagnant ratings and repeat visits.  It wants all of its teams to get good exposure and play all over the country to help recruiting.

Comment 19 Nov 2014

Actually, Connor Cook can't really throw either.  Media got way ahead of themselves calling him a top QB after the B1GCG and Rose Bowl.  He completed 58.7% of his passes last year.  This year, he's even worse, only completing 58% of his passes.  Ohio State's pass defense last year (112th in the nation) and Stanford's (98th) made Cook look like a real passer.  Ohio State lost that game because they were a bad defensive team, not because Cook "can actually throw the ball."

Comment 18 Nov 2014

In case anyone is interested in a statistical analysis that puts the stats the op provides into context, Sagarin uses a statistical analysis to measure conference strength.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2014/conference/

This is how his formula plays out:
1 SEC-WEST

2 PAC-12 SOUTH

3 SEC-EAST

4 BIG 12

5 PAC-12 NORTH

6 BIG TEN-EAST

7 ACC-COASTAL

8 BIG TEN-WEST

9 ACC-ATLANTIC
 

Comment 17 Nov 2014

OSU is a big draw, but in 2014, OSU doesn't get as many viewers as the SEC powerhouses.  For instance, in OSU's biggest game of the year (vs. MSU) it was the third highest rated game that day, behind Alabama vs LSU and Texas A&M vs Auburn.

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

On the night of the OSU vs PSU game (probably OSU's second highest profile game, prime time, brand name opponent) they also finished third in the ratings, being Miss St. vs. Kentucky and Miss vs. LSU.

OSU gets big ratings, but not SEC big.
 

Comment 17 Nov 2014

They aren't terrible on the road.  They are 3-1, with their only loss to a top 10 team by 6 points.  They struggle offensively on the road, but they are still great defensively.  On the road, they held Ole Miss to 120 yards under their season average, Arkansas 97 yards below, and LSU to 114 yards below.  They also held WVU (on a neutral field) to 109 yards below.  Tennessee hit their season average (+2 yards), but Bama still won by two touchdowns.

Comment 17 Nov 2014

Exactly, ten bowl opponents on the schedule and only one win against ranked opponents only confirms that there are too many bowl games.