I think Oregon wins handily. I keep reading in MSU season previews that the defense will break in a lot of new players but that's ok because the offense will be able to carry the load until the D gels. That's not likely against Oregon. Tell me, where will Michigan State's points come from?
First of all, Bollman is their OC. Their offense will not be designed to carry the load. Secondly, I think Connor Cook is very overrated (thanks to playing OSU and Stanford at the end of the season, two of the very worst passing offenses in the nation last season.)
MSU's passing offense was ranked 84th in the country last year. 84th. Sadly, MSU played some of the worst passing defenses in the nation last year: Indiana (120th), Ohio State (112th), Northwestern (101st), Stanford (98th), Illinois (82nd), and an FCS team. And, even playing these defenses, MSU finished 84th in the nation. Oregon had the 21st ranked pass D in the nation (37th ranked Defense Overall), and they were probably even better than that. That's because Oregon played three top ten passing offense last year (Cal 10th, Wash. St. 4th and Oregon St. 3rd) Despite playing teams that sling it everywhere, Oregon still finished with a top 20 level passing defense. They have the best cornerback in the nation. Connor Cook may have looked good against Stanford's 98th ranked pass D, but Oregon (at home) will present a much bigger challenge.
So, where will Sparty's points come from? Not the passing game. Do people really think Jeremy Langford and MSU's 59th ranked rushing offense is going to keep pace with Oregon? MSU has to replace 3 starters from their Offensive line, and their run game wasn't that good anyway. They were held below 4 yards/carry in 5 games last seasons. Michigan State's rush offense won't be able to carry the day either.
Unless MSU gets 10pts or more off special teams and/or defense, I think Oregon wins comfortably.