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Riggins 12th Warrior

Member since 11 July 2011 | Blog

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Comment 17 Nov 2015

They are pretty average when it comes to yards per game and 1st downs (more on that later). I'm just saying when I was digging into stats a few years back, 3rd Down % had a higher correlation to winning within a given game than a lot of other stats including yards per game. Turnover margin had the highest correlation. I can't recall where overall 1st downs ended up but I'm sure its also higher than overall YPG.

If you're awesome on 3rd down, you're going to force more punts (or FGs). Houston is tied for best in the league there. Your earlier stat said Houston has faced among the fewest 3rd downs in the league. Well them leading the league in punts forced per game should tell you a little something about how lights out they've been on 3rd down.

Like I said in my first post, there are a lot of stats to judge a defense. Everyone gives up yards these days, so give me a team that forces turnovers or forces punts (3rd Down %) over a team that allows 2 or 3 fewer first downs over the course of a game. Arizona is leading the league in allowing 17 1st downs a game. Houston is midpack at 20 per game. I'd gladly sacrifice a few yards here and there, or a couple first downs over the course of a game if it meant my defense was going to get me the ball back more often through defensive stops. Change of possession to me is a more tangible benefit and stat than overall YPG or 1st downs allowed.

Comment 16 Nov 2015

Probably wrong choice of words. Turnover margin is huge as is just flat points allowed. But yea, I think 3rd down percentage is a big predictor in terms of the outcome of games. Getting off the field and not allowing long chain-moving drives is huge.

Comment 11 Oct 2015

Michigan's loss against Utah (their overall record) would have no bearing on the conference tiebreakers until you got to B-5, the CFP rankings. They would be exclusively looking at conference games until then.

Comment 28 Sep 2015

There is no difference to being up 12 vs being up 13 when Florida is going to get two possessions the rest of the game. Even if you miss the 2-point conversion (up 12, or down 2 if Florida scores 2 TDs), a FG still wins you the game same as it would if you had kicked the PAT (up 13, or down 1 if Florida scores 2 TDs)

You lose nothing by going for 2. If they made the 2-point conversion, the game would've gone to OT. Butch made the wrong call.

Comment 22 Sep 2015

ACC would make that trade in a heartbeat. That should tell you how unbalanced your proposal is. Penn State, despite their lunatic fringe, is a valuable member of the conference.

Comment 15 Sep 2015

Notre Dame has nothing in common with B1G universities outside of geography. They view themselves as an elite, private, East Coast university that is unfortunately located in rural Indiana. They're small, private, and have a focus on undergraduate education. The B1G is large, public (sans Northwestern), and put a premium on graduate programs. They fit the ACC way better than the B1G. The ACC is full of schools just like them.

Comment 28 Aug 2015

Just going off of OP saying a 300 lb man chasing them down would be terrifying. When cops do something good, they should be recognized. The only press they ever get is negative stuff.

Comment 28 Aug 2015

I love Mangold, but the credit here belongs to the cops who apprehended the suspects. All the article states is Mangold dialed 911 which was the smart thing to do. Going vigilante in the middle of the night against an unknown number of possibly armed burglars doesn't seem like the smartest thing to do even if it is our first instinct many times.

Comment 15 Aug 2015

From the CFP website:

9. Pairings for Semifinals.

The team ranked No. 1 by the selection committee will play team No. 4 in the semifinals. Team No. 2 will meet team No. 3.

When assigning teams to sites, the committee will place the top two seeds at the most advantageous sites, weighing criteria such as convenience of travel for its fans, home-crowd advantage or disadvantage and general familiarity with the host city and its stadium. Preference will go to the No. 1 seed.