Unfortunately I think you are 100% right with this and that sucks. Everyone that says just keep winning and everything will be fine isn't paying attention to what those teams ahead of us have left. We need something crazy to happen to at least 1 or 2 of the teams ahead of us to manage to get into the top 4. Simply winning out isn't going to do it.
ORE v ASU will put one of them out, but leaves the winner in.
FSU has nobody tough on their schedule, without something crazy they are in.
TCU has nobody left on their schedule, if we don't get the benefit of being OSU they could be in ahead of us.
Baylor has KSU left, but between TCU / Baylor as of now 1 would be in.
And oh ya, i almost for got, secsecsec, MSU v ALA would knock out ALA if they lost, but a 1 loss MSU would remain ahead of us. Somehow we need everyone in the SEC to come away with 2 losses by having Georgia or Missouri win the sec championship game. Even in that situation, do you really see them having NO sec representative in the playoff?
We still have a long road ahead of us and need to take care of our own business, but need to keep hoping for mayhem to hit across all of College Football.