I don't think Mississippi State is that good. I think they will lose to Ole Miss and Alabama.
I think we would have an argument over a one loss Florida State if they were to lose but I think that is unlikely. Duke is the only chance of them losing in my opinion.
Oregon has to play ASU in the Pac 12 championship game, so one of those teams are guaranteed to lose. Plus ASU still has to play Arizona. If they lose that game and Oregon loses the Pac 12 championship game then the Pac 12 would be left out.
I expect Alabama to beat Miss State but they do have to play Auburn plus the SEC champ game if they win the division. There could be a scenario where every SEC team has two losses at the end of the year.
As much as I dislike TCU for giving up 61 points in a loss and still being ranked ahead of us, I don't see them losing another game. Baylor has a tough game against Kansas State, but if TCU and Baylor win out I'm not sure if the committee will put two Big 12 teams in the playoff.