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Comment 22 Jul 2014

Of course I agree - if the same oddsmaker has a big difference between the individual game and the division odds, then that implies a big difference in MSU's chances against other teams on their B1G schedule vs OSU's chances. I find it hard to think there is that much of a difference if the head to head game is a toss up. That said, they do face Nebraska in a crossover game that OSU doesnt have so that would account for some of it. The odds arent too far from saying that even if MSU beats OSU, then there is still 40% chance OSU wins the B1G.

Agree 100% with Vegas making odds to make a buck and to manage risk. Futures odds like these are less played by professional gamblers (who play individual games more) so they are more influenced by fans. If there are going to be more OSU fans betting this than MSU fans, then for sure the odds would be shaded away from the "true" odds since more money would come in on OSU at the "true" odds. That is how one makes a market and manages risk. If they are expecting to get too much money on OSU at "true" odds, then of course they would move the market to entice people to put money on other teams to spread their risk.

Comment 22 Jul 2014

MSU odds seem to be undervalued relative to OSU for both B1G and division.

Especially the division break even if you made a bet, those odds imply OSU has 71.4% chance to win division and MSU a 27.8% chance (will add up to over 100% for all teams because of juice). That seems like a big margin considering the MSU/OSU game line is pretty much a toss up from what I had seen. There are alot more OSU fans than MSU fans so that line must be shaded fairly hard to reflect that.

Comment 21 Jul 2014

That was intentional to not distract from the point i was trying to make. I figured that if I threw Michigan in there it would make it look like I was just a Michigan homer/troller and would distract from the message. The point really had nothing to do with a specific team so left them out to avoid this. 

Comment 21 Jul 2014

I think these comments downplay way too much the possibility that it could be some other team outside of MSU/OSU make the playoff. I think this occurs because too much is assumed to be certain based off what happened last year.

Just look at what transpired in 2013 to see how much little we really know. MSU was 7-6 in 2012. If this same article was written last year, no one would have even had MSU in the conversation and then they went out and won 13 games and would have been the team in the playoff. Same with Auburn..Auburn was unranked preseason last year and yet they made it to the championship game.

Without question, I agree that MSU and OSU are the two most likely teams that could make it out of the B1G..but the probability that it is a totally different team is much higher than is generally thought. Whether that be Nebraska, Wisc, Iowa or someone else, who knows.

I think part of this is because we often think of individual games as certainties based on last year. For example, going down the schedule and making a comment like MSU will beat Maryland is the cause. The reality is more like MSU has maybe a 65-80% chance to beat Maryland. But we act as if its 100% and just chalk it up as a win on their schedule and so overestimate MSU's chances of running the table outside of OSU (and likewise underestimate Maryland's chances of having a good record). This makes it hard for us to believe things like last year's MSU and Auburn turnarounds can occur.

Comment 19 Jul 2014

I think alot of his initial changes that he faced resistance to were "tradition" type things where he had to deal with the nonsense of "This is Michigan. This is how we've always done it". Remember as crazy as it sounds Michigan hadnt ever played a night home game until Brandon came and changed that.

I wasnt trying to argue anothing football related with the data about Domino's but since you ask it, Ill at least try to give some response as to what Brandon could be thinking. Clearly there was a large step back for on the field performance last year and so your point about what he can see in Hoke has some validity. As a result, there have been significant changes. I think both he and Hoke realized there needed to be changes so alot have been made in the offseason from firing Borges, hiring Nussmeier, switching up the assignments for all of the defensive staff, moving to separate safety/CB coaches (as OSU has done), changing to more aggressive press coverage (as OSU has done). So from this standpoint I would say that they have been trying to address the on the field performance...whether it is successful obviously we dont know yet.

Also, I think its important to note that Brandon has additional criteria in judging Hoke than only the simple W/L record. Under Hoke, the team's APR (which is 4 yr moving average) has moved to 4th in B1G after being as low as last place last year as the RR years roll off the moving average. Brandon values this even if most fans only look at W/L and he also values that the roster has stabilized so there is no longer the massive attrition that kept occurring during previously.

On an interesting note regarding judging coaches, he did make what was considered surprising changes in a couple sports this offseason so he has shown he is more than willing to make changes...womens water polo and mens tennis were two notable ones. The new hires were considered to be outstanding ones but the ones he got rid of did not have awful records by any means. I know UM's men's tennis is way behind OSU (as is the rest of B1G) but the coach that was let go had finished in top 4 of B1G for 8 out of his 10 seasons so wasnt exactly scraping the bottom of the B1G (but obviously never won a title since OSU was racking them up).

Comment 19 Jul 2014

I dont think there is any way to really gauge whether his seat is hot. Im just trying to make the point that the loud voices of the writers at mgoblog and John Bacon are far from showing the full picture.

 I guess the main thing is there arent many complaints outside of the football issues...and when it gets down to it its hard to know if its just a function of the poor record this past season coinciding with a poor home schedule for 1 year at the exact same time (which is somewhat a function of B1G forcing them to switch the MSU game to a road game for a second year in a row).

Comment 19 Jul 2014

Im not trying to troll or anything (believe me its more controversial to support Brandon these days on a Michigan site than it is over here)...just trying to answer the question as to why some, including Brandon himself, view Domino's turnaround as actually a success for him.

-First, Dave Brandon remained the Chairman of the Board at Domino's after he left for Michigan and is still the Chairman at Domino's today. Therefore, its safe to conclude, while absent from day to day operations, that he has had a large voice in the strategy of Domino's since he left. The CEO since he left still credits Brandon as his "most important business mentor" he's had.

Finally, the big turnaround for Domino's was when they totally revamped their pizza recipe and started from scratch to improve the product. This entire redesign was under Brandon and the new recipe and marketing campaign was introduced in the 4th quarter of 2009 (he left CEO position in Jan 2010). The success that followed and increase in the stock price was largely a function of this even if he was no longer the CEO at that point.

In fact, I think he takes the success of this redesign and change as proof that sometimes organizations have to change even things that are core to their organization...which sort of gets a main issue around his changes at Michigan.

Comment 19 Jul 2014

This isnt the most popular view on the internet but I think Brandon has alot more support than many realize. The support and reasons for it have been drowned out by some of the noise to criticize Brandon which obviously creates more noise and funny zingers than the other side. This happens when you have places like mgoblog that have lost any objectiveness on the topic as it turns it in to a place where the "in" thing to do is to find a reason to criticize anything Brandon does.

While Brandon certainly has made some missteps, he has done a good job in many areas whether it be improving the experience of all student athletes, running athletic budget at a profit (not something that has always happened at Mich), good overall athletic performance (#13 in this past years Directors Cup which equally weights all sports) leading a huge $250 investment program solely for nonrevenue facility upgrades, and what are regarded by virtually all as some good recent hires (womens basketball, baseball). While many think he is only focused on generating more revenue, he has showed a huge increase (relative to his predecessors) on improving the facilities for nonrevenue sports (main thing being a $250mm program to upgrade/reconstruct all existing nonrevenue facilities over a 5yr period). If all you cared about was revenue and profits, you wouldnt be spending it on improved softball, volleyball, and water polo facilites.

The heart of the controversy lies in the football VS. other sports debate. Essentially what he has done is look for ways to raise revenue from football primarily while spending it heavily in the nonrevenue sports so the experience is improved for all student athletes (not just football/basketball). The impact of this is that lots of fans are touched by the football ticket prices/revenues so complain about while the nonrevenue spending affects fewer since many dont care about. If you are like Brian at mgblog (who last week said he could care less if there was more support/resources for those other sports), then you are aggravated by the revenue increase needed from football to pay for the other sports. If you are a fan/supporter or an athlete for nonrevenue sports, then Dave Brandon has huge support as he has raised the value placed on these relative to his predecessors. In general, he has huge support from the student athletes.

But if you argue that football is all that really matters, then you have probably have complaints about Brandon because of both the results on the field this past year and the general appetite to increase football revenue.

Just as a technical note to article above, Brandon did not make the presentation to the regents and was not there. The vice president of the school made the presentation to request fireowrks for the games. The only reason I point it out is this distinction might have some impact on how much of a dissing you interpret the decline of the fireworks proposal to be,

Hopefully this just gives you a bit of a perspective on why there is some support for him despite the headlines from football blogs like mgoblog. Im not trying to say he hasnt made some mistakes and Im not trying to argue against article when it comes down to it, these comments would be received more negatively on a place like mgoblog given their views on this.

Comment 13 Jul 2014

His father told 247 today that Brendan will visit Florida next week so unlikely he would commit beforehand after just scheduling a visit down to UF.

Comment 12 Jul 2014

Opinions are different than attacking a kid for his decision and competitiveness.

Regarding Baker, you wrote this yesterday "IMO I don't think baker had what it takes and UFM knew that"  and "Elite talent should never be scared of competition but baker was so he ran for the easiest place to play at for him."

I think people here are very fair with voting and thats why you have fans from other teams (like myself) also posting here because there is good material/info and limited personal attacks. But people here will rightfully downvote someone if they take a personal attack at a high school kid.

Comment 11 Jul 2014

Rock's bio says he will play tight end this year if you click on it.

Comment 11 Jul 2014

Lattimore and Wilson both #2...that cant stick if Lattimore is going to play on kickoff team with Wilson. i think sometimes in the preseason numbers just handed out and then they have to get modified once games approach and conflicts are going to emerge.

Comment 06 Jul 2014

I think consensus is OSU has as good of a shot as anyone...and probably would be considered his leader since there is no other team that jumps out right now as a possible leader. It sounds like he is looking at things independently from his brother and it doesnt sound like Michigan really has any advantage. it sounds like his dad does it right, lets the kids consider all their options, and is fine with his kids going wherever they feel the most comfortable. For Michael it was Michigan where he felt the best but for Brendan could likely be somewhere else.

Comment 04 Jul 2014

Yeah..that seems to be the consensus. The only argument for is that the main effect of his mom's medical condition is that she can no longer fly and so couldnt see his games anymore if he stayed at USC. At UM, she can drive (as its about a 4 hour drive even though its out of the radius ) so she would be able to go to all the games. So even though he is out of the radius it does seem to solve the main issue that his parents were no longer able to see his games. Not sure if any of that will matter given it is out of the radius as you pointed out.

Comment 03 Jul 2014

There hasn't been any ruling yet on Isaac. I have to assume it will get denied as Mitchell's did but you never know. Given that they have to send all sorts of medical info and reports and none of that is disclosed, its hard to judge the relative merits of the cases.

Comment 16 Jun 2014

If it was said as a joke, then that is different as it would be read as a harmless comment. The original comment implied he was going to do it out of spite.

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Comment 16 Jun 2014

This is a ridiculous, unsubstantiated post which serves no purpose other than to make the kid look bad. 

if he does get an offer, of course he might take a few days to decide. While he may be taking the time to make sure he is entirely confident of this important decision, this "rumor" post will have some people think he is doing the waiting solely to advance an agenda of making OSU look bad.

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Comment 14 Jun 2014

I had just typed similar below..but I dont think February is viable also as alot of these kids play basketball. In the end, I think the game is a great theoretical idea but I dont think there is a place for it anymore given the issues you have raised.

Comment 14 Jun 2014

Im not sure if there is a place for a game like this anymore. Its a great idea theoretically but the reality is there are always going to a lot of players have players enrolling early, players reporting to camp these days in June, and schools not wanting their players to participate because of injury concerns.

I think its well known that there is more talent in Ohio football than Michigan football so no one is going to really argue that...but the reality is this game is going to always be decided more by who isnt there than who is there. It seems like Ohio had more guys missing and was hurt more by this. But even Michigan was missing alot...look at just the DL alone as Malik McDowell (MSU), Lawrence Marshall (UM), and Jhonny Williams (ND) all werent there for Michigan on the line.

All it takes is one torn ACL and I think there will be serious questioning whether it makes sense to play this anymore at this time of year. 

Comment 14 Jun 2014

I dont really have much to add as it seems pretty bizarre if true...especially since on Thursday Cornell had said he was going to visit Michigan the next day on Friday.

The earlier poster was correct that Michigan had only been targetting DE's in this class because of the small numbers..and many have Cornell now more likely to be a DT. It seems strange to not still go after him but that must be part of the issue regardless.

Michigan is going to have some problems juggling numbers as this has to be very small class. Given the Ty Isaac transfer, they only have 10 total scholarships to offer for the entire 2015 class before any attrition. They already have 7 verbals so the numbers are getting tight although there will always be some attrition so 15 might be the realistic size of the class. Obviously, this has little to do with Cornell as he is enough of an elite talent you wouldnt just stop recruiting him.

The two main DE's they are targetting are Darian Roseboro and Keisean Lucier-South.

The reason Michigan's class in 2015 will have to be some small is that there was so much attrition in the 2009 and 2010 classes that they signed so many in 2012 & 2013...which has created very imbalanced classes in terms of numbers leaving a small number for this year's class.