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Comment 19 Nov 2014

Prior to Navy we were ranked 5th in the AP poll but just barely (9 points ahead of Auburn), after Navy we dropped to 8th only 4 points ahead of Texas A&M, , after Va Tech we dropped to 22,  after clobbering Kent St we went down 1 more to 23rd

from there week by week we were: 22, 20, 15, 13, 13, 13, 13, 8, 7, of course the Playoff poll means more than this, but that gives some insight into how we have moved

Comment 18 Nov 2014

to your point Cal i looked at some of the stats as compared to everyone else they played this year, so in Navy's case how we did vs how everyone else has done against Navy and what stands out is how mediocre we were the first 2 weeks and how stunning it turned around after that

First on Defense Total Yards (and using Remy's minus is better)

Navy  minus 74.4

Va Tech minus 54.2

Kent St minus 200.0

UC Minus 64.4

MD minus 37.4

Rut minus 41.2

PSU minus 112.0

Ill minus 130.2

MSU plus 24.4

Minn minus 61.6

The best Pass D games vs avg in order were Kent St, Illinois, Navy, Minn, Va Tech, Rutgers, and PSU, all others we gave up more yards passing than those teams otherwise average (in order) MD +15.8, UC +33.0, MSU +99.9

Best Rush D games vs avg in order were UC, PSU, MSU, Kent St, Va Tech, Minn, Rutgers. In the others we gave up more than they averaged (in order), Illinois plus 1.6, Navy plus 5.8, MD plus 53.2

as for scoring we have held 7 of 10 below their season average (In order) Navy Minus 18.7, Kent St minus 17.0, Rutgers minus 10.3, UC Minus 10, MSU minus 7.6, Minn minus 6.7, MD minus 5.3, PSU plus 3.0, Va Tech plus 10.8, Illinois plus 12.9

Now Offense Total Yards (again minus us better here) -

MSU minus 291.7

UC minus 251.6

Kent st - minus 214.0

Rutgers minus 174.7

Minn minus 153.7

MD minus 106.9

Illinois minus 61.2

PSU minus 30.4

Navy plus 8.1

Va Tech plus 18.0

Best Passing games in order were - Kent st minus 139.1, MSU minus 109.1, UC minus 52.3, Va Tech minus 42.7, Rutgers minus 38.9, MD minus 28.3, Illinois minus 24.9, Minn minus 2.2, Navy plus 5.9, PSU plus 120.6

Best rushing games in order were - UC minus 199.4, MSU minus 182.6, Minn minus 151.4, PSU minus 151.0, Rutgers minus 138.5, MD minus 78.6, Kent St minus 74.9, Illinois minus 36.3, Navy plus 2.2, Va Tech plus 60.7

For scoring O the best to worst are - Kent St minus 40.6, Rutgers minus 30.2, MSU minus 29.3, MD minus 25.6, Illinois minus 21.1, UC minus 20.8, PSU minus 16.4, Minn minus 9.7, Navy minus 5.7, Va Tech plus 1.0

Comment 18 Nov 2014

Last years women's final 4 attendance was 17500 plus for the semi's and finals both, ie only about 1700 fewer than Ohio States regional loss to Dayton, again not men's hoops big, but there will be a sizable crowd there, nationwide holds about 1700 more the the Schott does so if they can fill it you are looking at nearly 20k, not too shabby

Comment 18 Nov 2014

Last years women's final 4 attendance was 17500 plus for the semi's and finals both, ie only about 1700 fewer than Ohio States regional loss to Dayton, again not men's hoops big, but there will be a sizable crowd there, nationwide holds about 1700 more the the Schott does so if they can fill it you are looking at nearly 20k, not too shabby

Comment 17 Nov 2014

i voted no as i think some offer is going to come thru that he will take

Kansas, SMU are both likely to pay him double if not more than what OSU is willing to pay him, The Virginia job could come open as they are quite disappointed in London and sit at 4-6 right now

Indiana and Illinois could both be open, Iowa St where he was an asst will likely come open, does Wash St give up on the Leach experiment that has them at 2-8 in his 3rd year

any of those jobs could be or are open that might hire him and pay him significantly more that he currently makes

Comment 14 Nov 2014

OSU's defense has played 2 teams with a Rush Offense ranked higher than 71, Navy at #1 and MSU at #15 and both gashed us in the run game to the tune of 5.9 and 5.2 Yards per carry.

UC was the next best we faced and they rank 71st and they gained 3.7 per carry and then Rutgers at 86th gained 3.9. The others we faced an dominated ranked 95th, 103rd, 114th, 112nd and 123rd,,,there are only 125 teams in the FBS, so we have faced 5 rushing offense ranked in the bottom 25% of D1A, so we have been rarely tested

Minny ranks 26th, so i expect a test on the DL and LBs again. Given the conditions expected at game time, this could be a low scoring closer game than we expect with Minny moving the ball and eating up clock an hence keeping our O off the field and if we struggle to pass given the conditions, then we could see a 31-14 kind of game

The average between MSU and Navy was 5.6 yards per carry, if i think Minny at home can run effectively, say 5 even, then we could be in for a close game.

current weather reports for Minny are calling for wind chills in the teens and a 20-30% chance of snow, so who knows how that impacts our Texas born QB in his throwing?

Comment 14 Nov 2014

when i played football in Ohio the cold never seemed to cause this supposed increase in pain to me. maybe the next day i felt it more, but during the game with the adrenaline running after a few minutes you didnt notice the cold.

in fact about the only time you really noticed the cold when playing was at times it was hard to breath as the air hitting your lungs was so cold, but otherwise in the "heat" (pun intended), of battle, i never really noticed an increase in pain due to the cold

Comment 14 Nov 2014

yep Jon has been an NFL DB coach since he left UF when Spurrier went to the pro's 12 years ago. Per that wiki entry supposedly Spurrier asked him to be has DC as S Carolina when he took the job there but declined.

His last unit at UF was ranked 4th nationally in scoring D at only 14.8 per game. all 3 of his units there were ranked in the top 35 in D scoring, so a very solid DC but obviously prefers the NFL game

Comment 13 Nov 2014

You have fonder memories of Dallas than I do. Lauderdales best season was as a junior when he averaged 6.5 points, 5.2 boards and blocked 2.1 shots,

last year for as frustrating as he was to watch at times Williams averaged 7.8 points (20% better than Dallas best), 5.8 rebounds again better than Dallas best and 1.8 blocks ie slightly worse.

Dallas shot better from the field but was a complete no go at the line shooting barely 41% while Amir was 65% last year from the line and 60 from the field. 

I would say they were about even overall

Comment 12 Nov 2014

there has been some scuttle that he may be in line for the Kansas job. He was an asst there for several years (2 stints from 2003-04 and again being their OC/QB coach during their run of good years from 2007-09,

they paid Weiss $2.5 million so i dont think we would pay him to be an asst here that much, but who knows

Comment 12 Nov 2014

couple things here

1) Ed has been a play calling OC before. He was the play calling OC and QB coach (yes you read that right QB's) at Kansas from 2007 to 2009 during which Kansas had some awesome offenses. in 2007 they were 2nd nationally in scoring and went 12-1 and won the Orange Bowl averaging nearly 480 yards a game. He was also the OC/QB coach at Army in 1998-99, so he has play calling exprience

2) his resume is quite broad even though his primary task has been OL, he has also coached QB's, RBs, LBs, DB's, DL, and been a recruiting coordinator, about the only 2 things he hasn't explicitly coached are special teams and TE's

3) his time to be a head coach may have passed him by. he is 52 or 53 years old I believe which makes him a bit old to be a 1st time HC.

4) he makes nearly 400K here now, and should Herman leave (a distinct possibility) he would be inline to become the primary OC here with a raise in line, should he leave for a smaller school like a MAC program he might have to take a pay cut, which unless he simply wants to be a HC, might not be where he goes.

whatever he does, he has earned my respect as maybe the best position coach we have had in some time

Comment 10 Nov 2014

i guess i am just not as certain as some others that we get in over Baylor.

their loss while bad is not as bad as ours, they lost to a competitive WVU by 14 on the road (in a game in which Baylor's db's were called for 7 pass interference calls!!!) while we lost to a sub .500 Va Tech at home by 14. so our loss is at least slightly worse than theirs

our win over MSU looks good of course and should Nebby make it to the CCG and we win big that will certainly help. But overall i think our wins are about even. so it may simply come down to who had the worse loss

The PAC 12 south may turn out to be our friends. Should ASU lose to Arizona (come on Rich Rod), then their could be a 3 way tie for the South (either USC or UCLA, plus ASU and U of A,) I dont know what the Pac12 tie breakers are, but anyone of those 4 teams are at least capable of beating Oregon. Not saying they will, but they are capable

i voted no because i think if everything goes to chalk then we end up 5th even with winning out

MSU, FSU Oregon and/or TCU/Baylor wins out i think we end up 5th and frankly maybe 6th.

i still think we need help.

Comment 27 Oct 2014

if a 100..2 pass efficiency rating (what Hack was on Saturday is a decent passing game then you guys have some seriously unrealistic expectations.

besides the Kent St game that was the best our pass D has looked all year (Navy doesnt count since they essentially didnt throw the ball.

Hackenberg had a QB rating of 120.7 coming into the game and we held him 20 points below that season average and we think they had a decent passing game??

a 100.2 rating would rank 113th nationally,,,the defense gave up 10 points and 217 yards in regulation, to a team who although not an offensive power came in scoring 21 per game and gaining 356 yards which included 299 thru the air, take away the 35 Hack got in 2 OTs and we gave up only 189 in regulation

thats good D

Comment 23 Oct 2014

yes the Navy game skews both the run and pass D numbers as they simply dont throw the ball.

ignoring that game as a statistical aberration, you get closer to this, 214 yards passing allowed which would rank about 42nd, 91 rush yards allowed which is good for about 4th nationally and 305 total yards allowed good for 11th nationally.

add in that in those 5 games we have allowed 20.8 points per game that would be about 27th nationally

finally looking at Pass Eff D, (often a better indicator of how good you are on Pass D than simple yards), we have been a rating of 112.78 over those 5 games or good for 31st  again in terms of numbers a big improvement.

my only concern so far is how will we match up when we play a team who can run the ball well. Navy ran up and down the field on us and the other teams we have played are not great at running the ball, so with the "walk out LB" concept effectively leaving you with 1 less in the box than say last year, will we have trouble stopping the run? (How odd is it to say that after the last couple years of terrible Pass D's)

Indiana is 5th, Nebraska is 6th, MSU 15th and Minny is 27th nationally in run offense, other than Navy the other rush O's we have faced are ranked Rutgers 77th, MD 84th, UC 107th, Kent 102nd, Va Tech 77th, ie barely tested

Certainly PSU isnt going to test our run D either, but starting with MSU we will face a set of good run offenses in a row.

IN the past we had great run D's in part because we had run stopping kinds of LBs, but with playing a walk out LB ie slightly undersized and lined up out of the box, when someone like Indiana comes to town with a great RB, could they see big holes all day because we changed schemes to fix the pass D?? just a thought

improved? Yes, but the jury is still out to my mind

Comment 22 Oct 2014

red herring argument.

i would not equate the defensive performance to date this year with my son getting on honor roll or my wife doing the hummer steak routine

i think given the talent our defense has, the results are average but look better compared to being worse than average the past couple years

this is a unit full of 4 and 5 star guys who current ranks 40th against the rush, 16th against the pass, 15th in total defense, 29th in pass eff d, and 24th in  scoring d, thats good, but not elite in anything and that's why i still have a wait and see attitude especially consider the level of talent we have vs who we have faced

we have top 10 talent and currently have a top 30 level D.

here are couple more stats

3rd down D - 31st, turnovers gained - 30th, sacks 36th, TFL - 34th, and how about this one Red Zone defense - 84th,

so are we better, maybe, given our competition we have given up almost the exact same yards and points thru 6 games as we did last year overall, same with TO's, sacks etc, we are slightly better on 3rd down but we are elite ie top 10% in nothing. (ie rank in the top 12 in any category), we are close in some areas but not quite elite in anything.

i think the best thing was can say is we are solid and balanced.

i still see way too many badly blown coverages (has every one forgot the passes vs UC?) that when we play better teams will not fall incomplete as they have the last few weeks.

to me the jury is still out

Comment 22 Oct 2014

i would say we "Look" better but the results are still wanting

sure we are giving up fewer passing yards but we are also allowing more rushing yards and in terms of yard per game, yards per play points per game etc we are almost identical to where we were at this time last year

we have 1 more TO created, 1 more sack, a couple more TFL completion percent is down so some small gains

and yes we appear to be not so out of position all the time and are tackling better, but in the end  results and not looks are what matter and in the area overall we have little to hang out hat on in terms of improvement. the next month of games will tell us alot

Comment 21 Oct 2014

i will just say i disagree with your assessment of #7, he appears to me to definitely initiate contact.

the problem ND has is the route run by the guy who caught the ball

all that contact is allowed and would have been no issue if he caught the ball behind the line, it then becomes effectively a screen and just the same as OLmen who go down field and make contact, as long as the ball is caught behind the line its ok

it is obvious to me that was the intent of the play.

unfortunately for ND their receiver did not run a crisp route and drifted past the LOS by nearly 2 yards and hence instead of a legal screen, it became an illegal contact by the ND receivers/blockers and hence off PI

run a better route and it is not an issue. Kelly is just sore they lost that way and i can understand that, but he really has nothing to hang his hat on

Comment 20 Oct 2014

Barrett passing stats thru 6 game

Att - 164, Comp - 107 PCT - 65.2% Yards - 1615, TDS - 20 INTs - 5

Miller/Guiton thru 6 games Using Miller vs Buffalo, Wisc and NW and Guiton against SDSU, Cal and FAMU since they played the majority of those games

Att - 167, Comp - 111 PCT - 66.5% Yards - 1222 TDs - 18 INTs - 4

so very comparable

rushing thru 6 games

Barrett - 78 for 383 and 4 TDS

Miller/Guiton - 80 for 408 and 1 TDs so again close,

where does he finish? given that 4 of his last 6 games are against defense ranked in the top 40 nationally when so far he has played 5 of 6 in the bottom 50,,tough to say

my guess is he does ok but we start seeing those elite numbers fall a bit due to more road games, tougher Defenses and colder conditions

still hoping for the best

Comment 19 Oct 2014

the next month will decide if his stats are for real or not

in 5 of the 6 games he has played in the defense we faced ranks 70th or worse nationally in total defense and 63rd or worse in scoring D

in 3 of the next 4 games he plays defenses ranked in the top 25 nationally in total D and top 35 in in scoring D, all on the road at night

lets see where he stands after going thru PSU, MSU and Minny at night on the road

if he still has Winston like numbers then no doubt he belongs in the conversation

Comment 10 Oct 2014

any comparison between sports and other "regular jobs" is specious.

in all jobs outside sports you have transferable talents that can be marketed in a relatively open process so you can make essentially free decisions to work for employer A or B based on what suites your desires

this isnt true in sports and especially so in college sports

yes you can pick between schools but the market is rigged and severely closed and hence you are not free to choose another employer who may value your skills it is a 100% closed labor market with severe exit restrictions that then essentially punishes even the attempt to negotiate better conditions or wages by seeking employment of your skills elsewhere

if i was a computer programmer for Microsoft and didnt like how i was being treated or compensated i have the ability to ply my skills to an almost endless array of other employment opportunities around the world

not so for a football player, they have essentially a closed labor market that severely restricts competition and allows them to set monopolistic practices and policies

plus if as a programmer i become a celebrity unless my employer has me sign a contract otherwise, i could go endorse a butter product or a car dealership with no repercussions and if i wanted to do so and my employer denied me i could easily trade upon my celebrity, quit my current employer and go else where with my talents

athletes are not provided this level of freedom of movement in terms of selling their talents.

i used to be in the no compensation camp but over the last 2 years i have nearly done a 180 and support compensation, especially when it comes to their own likeness

Comment 10 Oct 2014

Bruce coached under scholarship limitations although they were higher than today but not by a ton

from 1978 schollies were limited to 95 ie 10 more than today, so not sure any star he had would have ever failed to make the cut if he only had 85 to work with,,,maybe a 3rd string QB or a special teams guy, but it is not like Mike Lanese would have been cut..

Comment 08 Oct 2014

I dont want to down play what Barrett has done, he has played better each week and has put up some great numbers recently

but then again he has faced one pass d ranked in the top 60 nationally (ie the top half) and that was Va Tech who is 39th, ie not great but good

so yeah he has put up some great numbers against Pass D's ranked between 63rd and 118th nationally

Rutgers up next is 89th, PSU is 58th, Illinois is 61st, so until MSU who is currently 47th, i will withhold any judgement of just how "great" he until he shows he can deliver against a Pass D that rnaks better than 50th nationally...