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Jpfbuck


Member since 26 July 2011 | Blog

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Comment 26 Sep 2014

i dont beleive i have ever seen a group of local writers be so pessimistic about a game as this week. This is not a criticism just an observation

the current line on this game per cbs sports is 17 points. I have checked the following people predictions besides the 3 above, Tim May, Bill Rabinowitz, Dim Tiberi, Beau Bishop, Bobby Carpenter, Rob DeWolff, Tim Hall, Bob Hunter, Todd Jones, Rob Oller, Ray Stein, Tony Gerdman, John Porentas, Eric Seger and Patrick Murphy. That's 18 total picks

out of those 18 only 3 have OSU beating that 17 point spread, Tim May at 18, Tony Gerdman at 18 and Jason above at 21.

only 3 more have the game as a push ie 17, Bill Rabinowitz, John Porentas, and Beau Bishop

the other 12 all have OSU failing to cover that 17 point spread, with 7 of them expecting a single digit win

i am not certain i have ever seen so many "beat writer" types go that much under the line, especially for an un-ranked, in state opponent at home, at NIght,,,,

my guess which of course is no better than these 18 is OSU wins by 21 or more.

btw the average score from these 18 is a 39-26 win by OSU, or to give a somewhat more realistic score lets say 38-25 ie 13 points

i will take UC down to 21 and bring OSU up to 42 and cover thank you

Comment 26 Sep 2014

the only reference i can find for a Bart Bielema is a man who is a board member for the Lyndon, IL Historical Society,,,and Lyndon is 4 miles from Berts hometown of Prophetsville, IL, so i have to guess that is the man. for those not familiar with that area it is on I88 and the Rock River about 50 minutes east of the Quad Cities area (Davenport, Bettendorf, Moline, Rock Island IA/IL, very small towns,

and from a story published a couple years ago while he was still in Madison he has a sister named Brandy who lives in Lyndon and another brother named,,,,,Barry who lives in Asheville, NC

Their father Arnie ran a,,,,,Hog Farm,,,no lie you simply cant make this up!!!

http://www.uwbadgers.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/062511aaa.html

Comment 24 Sep 2014

understood CC about the perception

to that end, think about this, had Miller in 2012 only accounted for 30% of the carries instead of 37%, he would have run the ball only 159 times rather than the 199 times he did (again ignoring sacks from the calculation)

so 40 fewer carries in 12 games is close to 4 a game or 1 per quarter, that is actually fairly significant

when adding in Guiton's runs in 2012 the QB's combined actually carried the ball 39% of the time, while so far this year we are at a sliver under 30%, so that 9% difference so far would mean Barrett and Jones would have run the ball 52 times so far this year rather than the 37 they have, 15 more carries in 3 games is again fairly significant

so counting in Guiton, then overall stats go from 39 to 33 to 30, that's closer to your perception certainly

Comment 24 Sep 2014

well the previous 2 years Urban has described the reciever core as a clown show and this year we have seen a new batch of faces suffer from a rash of drops etc, 

it may be the coaching or it may simply be mediocre receiving talent, who knows for sure

add in the Braxton was never the most accurate thrower in terms of ability to hit guys in stride etc and the pass game become less effective against teams with good cover corners and willing to sell out against the run.

sometime we still beat teams in those game and in 3 cases we have come up just short.

but until we can show passing balance (which requires and OL that can give the QB time to throw, a QB who can hit guys in stride, and receivers who can get separation and hold on to the ball), then good defenses will always make us struggle, hence why they are seen as good defenses.

the last 2 years i would put the limitations in the pass game on both Miller's ocassional inaccuracy and the receiver cores weakness at getting seperation.

this year so far it is on drops and QB protection and ocassional QB mistakes due to youth.

sometimes the play calling hasnt helped but for now i am not inclined to point the finger there as the primary reason

Comment 23 Sep 2014

ignoring sacks we are running our QB less this year and much less than 2012

this year so far our QBs account for just under 30% of all carries when sacks are ignored

last year Miller, Guiton and Jones accounted for just over 33%

in 2012 Miller alone accounted for over 37%

Comment 18 Sep 2014

no Joe G is not related in fact it is a different spelling, Joe Germaine and Germain the auto dealer

Comment 16 Sep 2014

i dont want to down play what he has done, but Barrett has played 2/3rds of his games against pass D's that rank outside the top 80 in Pass Eff D. (Navy 81, KSU 122) and one ranked 36th.

i mean should be excited because our pass D ranks 7th in Pass Eff D and 4th in pass yards allowed even though we have played 2 teams who simply cant or wont throw and a 3rd in Va Tech who ranks 87th in Pass Eff O and 55th in Passing yards??? or maybe our pass D numbers look great because our competition was lousy

or should we assume MSU is lousy at pass D because their numbers are skewed by one game against Oregon??

I too think Barrett has done quite well all things considered, but i will assume he will not face another D as bad as Kent St the rest of the year, and not nearly as bad as them

Comment 16 Sep 2014

any school and i do mean any, can be competitive if they simply commit the resources to it.

Boise St is a perfect example of that

they didnt even start playing football until the late 60's, but starting in 1970 they built a new stadium, have expanded and upgraded 3 times since then to attract fans and show commitment to the programs when they were still a 1AA team.

in 1997 they hired Houston Nutt as their HC who had been 1AA national coach of the year 2 years prior at Murray St, they immediately got better (going from 2-10 to 5-6), Nutt left for Arkansas and they hired Dirk Koetter, who had been the OC at Oregon for the last 2 years, BC before that and and Missouri going back to the late 80's, 

he led them to back to back conference titles in 99 and 2000, and 2 bowl wins, then Dan Hawkins got promoted from within and kept the momentum going, they move up to the WAC and win 4 straight conference titles under hawkins and then Peterson takes over and wins 5 more titles

from 1999 to last year they played and beat, often away from their home stadium the following teams (Washington in 12, ASU and UGA in 11, Va Tech and Oregon St in 10, Oregon and TCU in 09, Oregon in 08, Oklahoma and Oregon St in 06, Oregon St in 04, TCU in 03, Iowa St in 02, Louisville in 99, 

all this from a program with no history, mediocre facilities, no recruiting base and little TV

hire the right guy, commit the money and the results will happen.

to not expect success is to court mediocrity

oh yeah and a BTW, last year Boise spent as much or more than the following B1G programs did on their coaching staff, (MSU, Wisky, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, MD, Rutgers, Minny), if your not going to compete with a program like Boise St financially, then you have no hope of competing with the SEC or the top half of the conference year in and out on the field

one last note, UC out spent all those programs too!!! think of that for a while!!!

many B1G ADs simply need fired or are being handcuffed by Presidents who simply dont care to complete

Comment 15 Sep 2014

here is my take on why we dropped

1) the loss to Va Tech looks much worse after they lost (and got outplayed) by ECU

2) The win against Kent does not offset that bad loss now (Kent is terrible at 0-3 and maybe the worst team in div 1A

3) Navy hasnt exactly lit anyone up since we beat them, They went off the next week and beat a very weak Temple Team by only 7 points, and then beat Texas St by only 14, ie they have not been impressive since we beat them

4) in that extended logic, Kent St had already lost to a bad Ohio U team and S Alabama who Miss St just pounded

in 2 weeks when we play UC we will get another chance to look impressive against a team who got 14 points in the latest AP Poll (ie considered ranked tied for 37th nationally. if we are impressive again, say beat them 42-10, then we likely start moving back up, but if we are not, say win 31-24, then we likely remain in the lower reaches of the poll and rightly so

Comment 12 Sep 2014

since nebraska was not part of the B10 prior to his taking over, here is NW record from Barnett's first title til the year prior to Fitz taking over against OSU, UM, MSU WI, PSU and bowl teams---16-30 or 35%, Fitz since has gone 6-29 or 17%.

Fitz has lost 18 of his 103 games as HC by 21 or more, thats 17.5%. prior to that was 21.4% so slightly improved but by essentially 4 games over 8+ years,,

Comment 12 Sep 2014

Kent is a very weak team especially offensively, they simply cant run the ball at all and although their QB looked decent against Ohio U, he looked terrible last week against S Alabama, a far cry from looking decent against Navy and terrible against Va Tech.

they may get 1 score on a fluke or a garbage time score, but if they get more than 10 we failed defensively (i am assuming no more pick sixes)

defensively they have looked decent against 2 very weak teams but they do have at least a modest amount of talent and ability on that side of the ball, ie mid MAC level.

we should,,,,again,,, should score at least 40 against these guys since we got 34 against a much better Navy team on the road.

i think failure to reach a 42-10 (ie a 30+ point win) or better means we are in for a long season, if we beat a very weak Kent team by say 28-7 or 31-10 then i think games like UC are simply up for grabs

Comment 11 Sep 2014

football doesn't grade on a curve so the lack of experience thing means nothing to me in terms of assessment, I gave him a D if for no other reason than throwing 4 INTs in 44 pass attempts

if that doesn't improve he will set the single season record for INTs in school history.

I get he is young, inexperienced and in terms of judging him based on those criteria then maybe a C, but in terms of decision making and taking care of the ball he has been woefully lacking so far.

I se potential, he seems quite accurate when given plenty of time, he has some solid if unspectacular running ability, But he needs to learn to throw the ball away and to make better reads in the option game

Comment 11 Sep 2014

from the UM loss in 2003 until Troy took over in week 7 of 2004, Tressel was 4-4 over an 8 game span that included losing to UM, Losing on the road to a 6-6 NW team for the first time in 3 decades, losing at home by 11 at home to a Wisky team that went 9-3 and a 26 point loss to Iowa on the road who although they were conference co champs had lost 3 weeks earlier to Arizona St by 37 pts.

the 4 wins were by 8 points over a mediocre NCST team, a 3 point win in a miracle FG over Marshall and 21 point win over a mediocre UC team.

in 2001 from week 2 to week 10 Tressel went 5-4 including losses to a 7-4 UCLA, home against 5-7 Wisky, a 5-6 PSU, home against Illinois,,,

did you call for his head then?? or claim he didn't know how to coach???

By comparison, Meyer had lost 3 games, 2 on away from the Shoe to teams who ended the year ranked in the top 8, and one at home to a team currently ranked and as far was know may end up the year in the top 10

Comment 09 Sep 2014

I love the quote about Randy Hart, he is still coaching as the DL coach at Stanford. After leaving OSU in 1987 he would go off to Washington and be their DL coach for the next 20 years (88-2008), then did 1 year at ND then at Stanford since 2010. Hart was a member of the 1968 national champs team and graduated from OSU back in 1970.

although never a starter he was a 3 time letter winer between 67-69.

Comment 09 Sep 2014

Delaney simply works at the behest of the the schools themselves, principally the heads of the conference universities,,,you want a change in focus, point your ire towards the people running the universities ie the presidents and provosts etc

Comment 29 Aug 2014

24 was our kicker Drew Basil and the guy trucking him appears to be a LB, actually if you watch that play closely it appears the snapper blocks the wrong direction,,,he steps left when the play is obviously designed to go right, hence why the db has any shot at KG at all, ie missed assignment led to completely blown block and then a 1 on 1 fight to the goal line

Comment 27 Aug 2014

well a couple things i take away, the experiment of using Elfien at Center came to nothing but last we heard Lindsay was dinged up and behind Boren, now they are an Or a bit of a surprise there.

Heuerman not having an OR must mean he is essentially 100% ready to go which is good news

Cam Johnston was NOT a rugby player he was Aussie Rules football he just Rugby kicks at times, i am sure he is fit as Aussie Rules requires a ton of running but not likely we will see him plow threw the line like Richie McCaw or Kieran Reid of the All Blacks, as Aussie rules is closer to full time punting while running and not the physical ground game rugby is

lastly like seeing a guy like Craig Fada get some love, an invited walk on in the DC is a great reward for a kid who has busted his tail

as the old boxing ref Mills Lane would say "lets get it on"

Comment 27 Aug 2014

that 09 game is a great example of team not focused for 60 minutes

we take the opening KO and proceed right down the field and score to go up 7-0, Navy then goes right down the field and scores too, 7-7

we then right back down for 1st down on the Navy 11, Saine runs for 1 yard, TP throws an INC and then a false start (guess who?), then on 3rd and 13 TP completes an 8 yard pass to Saine for 8 kick the FG up 10-7, 

OSU D then forces a 3 and out but on the PR we get called for a block in the back and instead of having the ball at our 20 we have at the 10

we go 3 and out and kick a short punt putting Navy at midfeld,,,they fumble we take it in for TD 17-7,

Navy get 1 FD then punts,,,the game is far from in hand but Tressel puts in Joe Bauserman, we do drive down to the Navy 14, but on 2nd and 10 we call a QB draw for Joe B and on 3rd down he throws the ball away!!! kick a FG up 20-7 half time

Navy goes 3 and out to start the 2nd half and is pinned deep in their own end, they punt we get the ball at the Navy 42

an run for 4 and its 2nd and 6, a false start and a dead bowl foul followed by a hold and though make it 2nd and 26 at our 42, a QB draw goes for 4 and then an INC pass kills good field position and we punt again downed at the Navy 1.

The D which much now think we have these guys figured out allows a 99 yard drive allowing them to convert a 3rd and 14 on a TD pass for 16 yards to end the drive 20-14 its a game again.

the offense wakes up a bit drives enough for 52 yd FG to make it 23-14.

The D wakes back up and gets a fumble, we drive it in for a TD to make it 29-14 but we botch the XP

we then get a INT, and get the ball at midfield, we are up by 15 have the ball at midfield drive for any score and the game is over

so we get down to the Navy 15 and on 4th and 2, Tressel breaks type and instead of kicking the chip shot FG goes for it we fail and instead of going up by 18, ie 3 scores and putting the game away, we are still only up 15 (2 scores) and now Navy is pumped

sure enough the D goes back to sleep and allows an 85 yard TD pass so now its 29-21.

now it is time for TP to go to sleep and throws a INT giving Navy the ball back in our end again, they drive for the score and finally Rolle saves it

OSU was a comedy of errors that day from the coaching decisions (Bauserman and 4th down), Special teams with a  botched XP, to the QB not being careful with the ball late in the game with an INT, to the D giving up a long TD when you should be in prevent, to stupid penalties killing drives

even a reasonably clean game by OSU and we win in a walk over. we played inconsistent and sluggish all day and Tressel compounded it by playing Bauserman early to kill momentum and instead of making a wise coaching decision late to take a FG and go up by 3 scores he instead wanted to "make a statement" and failed as we often did with a Bollman line, this keeping Navy within striking distance.

 

Comment 26 Aug 2014

Navy has been stopped many times even with their system, it simply requires disciplined assignment football I mean WKU last year held them to 86 yards on the ground. 

Navy is committed to the run like no one else. even in that loss to WKU they ran the ball over 30 times in a 19-7 loss. they had more rushing attempts than any other team in the country at 775 in 13 games or nearly 60 per game. 

So if they dont run it atleast 40 times against us i will be surprised and they rarely get shutout due to those discipline issues, as witnessed by the fact that they have been shutout once in the last 7+ years

where they are vulnerable, and why i think we have success is their defense often has trouble stopping teams, especially teams with good outside talent and/or spread teams, they simply struggle to stop them

when Braxton was still in the picture I assumed that barring a catastrophe we would score over 40 and even if we gave up some points we would win easily maybe even 42-21 as an example...with Braxton out it is a bit more unknown, but if we can keep pressure off JT and he actually can distribute the ball like some claim, then we may be ok and still score 35+

 

Comment 26 Aug 2014

that 2009 game is exactly what Vannett is talking about, ie even if you get up on them you have to continue full throttle

the O, D, Sp teams and even Tressel almost let that game get away in the last 12 minutes

the game had been close but we were controlling play, then a long FG, a fumble recovery and a TD put us up by what should have been 16 points with 12 minutes to go, but then the mistakes started

first we botched the XP - 1 point lost so only 15 instead of 16 points

Navy helps us by throwing a INT to give us the ball at midfield, drive for any kind of score and the game should be over, even a FG puts you up 18, ie 3 scores, with less than 9 minutes to play

well we drive to the Navy 15 and it is 4th and 2, this is a 33 yard FG that we should make 99% of the time,,,but,,, Tressel for once goes against type and rather than kick the sure 3 pts and effectively end the game,,wants to make a statement and we fail to convert on 4th and 2, bad coaching decision at that point, take the sure 3 and end the game, - 3 pts lost instead of a 19 point lead, or at least 18 points, it is still 15 points

now it is the defenses turn to go to sleep.

Navy is 85 yards away with 6:27 left to play,,so what happens, we go to sleep in the DB and give up an 85 yard TD pass, with the XP it is now an 8 point game with still over 6 minutes to play, so now instead of up 19 or 18, we are up 8, even with this 1 mistake, take away the other 2 and it is still a 12 point game ie still 2 scores.

so we get the ball back, so with 2nd and 9 from our own 40 with 4 minutes to go, Tress decides to throw the ball, and TP has a complete brain melt down and throws a terrible pick giving Navy the ball at our 33 yards line. Navy takes 3 plays and scores

then Rolle saves the day.

Navy insides, we recover and then run out the last 2 plus minutes

play a mistake free last 12 minutes and we win that game 33-14