personally, I'm happy at 4. Basically win the big 10 with 1 loss or less and we're in every year.
I think the next iteration will be a 6 team playoff with two teams getting a bye.
booked my flight 3 weeks ago. No clue where I'm going to find a ticket.
This is protection against us winning ugly, despite Cardale. That happens, committee says "can't drop an undefeated FSU out of the 4 spot".
If we win decisively and Cardale looks good, they say: FSU and OSU move up a spot because they beat top 15 teams and won an outright conference championship. TCU fans left crying real tears.
if they truly put everything on the table each week, TCU adds nothing, FSU and OSU add top 15 wins and sole conf championships. I think TCU fans are going to be in shock next week. Shouldn't have blown a 21 pt lead with 11 minutes left in the game if you wanted to make it out of a weak conference with no conference championship game.
I think this is to buffer against OSU winning ugly despite Cardale. Then, it lets them leave us out. If we win decisively and Cardale looks like a real QB, I think FSU goes back to 3, OSU goes to 4.
Next week we'll find out if the committee cares about conference championships or not. TCU being 3 with 1 good win all year should not be ahead of an undefeated team or a team with 2 good wins (assuming we beat Wisky). The big 12 is garbage. Their 5th best team is 6-6 texas and after watching them on Thanksgiving, it's amazing they won 6 times.
we may or may not get in, but no way TCU stays at 3 if FSU wins. Long basically said they were close between 3-4. FSU adds a big win and conference championship (which he said have not been considered yet) and TCU adds a junk win and co-conference championship.
I could still see TCU falling out after this week. Both FSU and OSU would add top 15ish wins and undisputed conference championships. TCU will add a big win over Iowa State and potentially a loss to their biggest win of the year in KSU.
Get well JT. We're going to need you to defend our title next year.
I would put our Minny, MSU, Wisky wins and early VT loss against:
Miss States: Ole Miss, ?, ? wins, Bama loss
TCU: KSU, Oklahoma, Minny wins, Baylor loss
How in the hell is Miss State 4? Their resume is pathetic.
I didn't do Baylor because the committee hates their OOC schedule and they aren't jumping us by beating KSU when we have Wisky left.
Miss State's vaunted resume:
southern miss: 3-8
Southern Alabama 6-5
auburn 8-4 (pending Alabama loss)
Arkansas - 6-5
UTM - 6-6
Ole Miss 8-3 (pending Miss St loss)
So everyone they beat will have 5 losses except for Ole Miss with 4. Miss States best win is their 5 point loss to Alabama that everyone agrees was not nearly as close as the final score. Furthermore, I hope the committee doesn't reward them for playing for the "close loss" at the end instead of trying to win.
TCU's vaunted resume:
minny 8-3 (pending hopefull loss to Wisky)
Baylor 9-1 LOSS
OK State 5-6
Tex tech 4-7 (pending loss to Baylor)
Kansas 3-8 (pending loss to KSU)
Just like Miss State, no conference championship and no extra win.
Win and we're in.
Baylor - OK st (5-5) - Tex Tech (3-7) - KSU (a win against them is nullified by our Wisky win) - We will stay ahead of them.
TCU - Bye - Texas (6-5) - Iowa state (2-7) - We will pass them on the strength of one extra win and another top 15 win.
Miss St - Vandy (3-7), Ole Miss (a win against them is nullified by our Wisky win) - We will pass them on one additional win and a true Conf Championship.
Assuming everyone wins out, here is my best guess:
1) Bama 2) Oregon 3) FSU 4) OSU 5) Miss St 6) Baylor 7) TCU
Miss St's schedule is starting to look pretty weak. Assuming Auburn loses to Bama and Miss State (maybe) beats Ol Miss:
Ole Miss - 3 losses
A&M 4-5 losses (pending LSU game)
Auburn - 4 losses
LSU - 4-5 losses (pending A&M game)
They will have a good loss though, lol.
They may be 4 this week, but the championship game bump will push us past them.
I think they stay 4. Their loss is better than ours. That being said, if we win out we have wins over MSU, Wisc and a conf champion after our name. They have a win agains Ol Miss, Auburn and no conf champion after their name. Also in our favor, Bama should end up being #1, so the committee would be setting up a rematch if they leave them in ahead of us.
I'll stick with my original prediction of the 4 teams from a month ago: Bama-Oregon-FSU-OSU.
As long as we eventually move over Baylor/TCU, we're in. No way they keep a conference champ out over a 1 loss non conference champ.
If that happens, a loss by oregon, fsu, bama, miss st guarantees we're in. But, as I previously mentioned, I don't feel the SEC will get 2.