I_Run_The_Dave's picture

I_Run_The_Dave


Member since 20 October 2012 | Blog

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  • COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYER: JT Barrett and Happy Jamarco
  • NFL TEAM: I care about Buckeyes in the NFL, not NFL teams.

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Comment 02 Dec 2016

I'm privy to the 7 week regular season and 7 week postseason with a 128 team bracket where each team plays a full 7 games.

The 128 teams are divided into 16 pools of 8 teams each.  A full round robin of 7 games is played within each pool to determine seedings for the postseason.  Home and away is randomized each year, however in any 4 year period, two home games and two away games must be played in any pairing.  In that respect, schedules would be set up for 4 year periods to ensure this is enforced.  This prevents teams from being locked into unfavorable away game match ups every other year.

For the post season, initial seedings are determined by rank within your pool.  In the event of ties within pools, points for/against can be used, then yards for/against, then random draw.  Teams are distributed by seeding and pool # throughout the bracket so that the top two teams in a pool are on opposite ends, trickling down so that the first rematches would be a rank 1 team against a rank 8 team in the same pool provided they both win.

Losers always drop a bracket while winners stay, so teams with equal postseason records will always play each other, however once a team has 4 postseason losses, they no longer continue to play (so no 0-7 national bottom feeder).  This allows for all teams to play a total of 11 games, up to a maximum of 14 as they continue to win.  There will be exactly 1 7-0 national champion, two teams with 1 loss, 4 with 2 losses, 8 with three, and the remaining teams with 4 losses and varying numbers of wins.  Postseason games are always played at the higher seed's site, however in the event two teams have the same seeding, regular season record is the first tie breaker, with the pool tiebreakers used next to determine the home team.  Week 13 and 14 games are always played at a neutral site at traditional bowl locations, preferring regional teams in higher brackets based upon traditional bowl hierarchy.  Higher ranked bowls will play the week 14 games with the exception of the undefeated teams in week 13.

Comment 02 Dec 2016

Regarding quarterbacks: Troy Smith and Terrelle Pryor were fantastic at making something out of nothing.  But every time they dropped back to pass I held my breath because too often would it turn into an interception at an inopportune time.  In the short passing game they were fine, and were great scramblers that otherwise weren't featured much in the run game.  I feel like in Urban Meyer's system, they would thrive and surpass anything that JT Barrett has done with the opportunities that JT had.  

That being said, JT doesn't throw interceptions and takes care of the football.  He also has the highest completion percentage ever at Ohio State, which is hilarious because he can't hit anything past 20 yards down the field.  But neither could Troy Smith or Terrelle Pryor, or at least, it didn't feel like they could when it counted back then.  They threw more 50/50 balls that could go either way, whereas JT throws 80/20 balls that end up being off the mark.  Still, JT doesn't not scare me when he throws deep, even if it is probably going to be an incompletion.  His decision making in generally excellent, which was the complain we all had regarding Braxton Miller -- great athlete, terrible decision maker.

Comment 02 Dec 2016

If he was a better coach, then how come he couldn't beat the youngest team in the FBS with a team full of veterans?  Sounds like Urban is a better recruiter, developer, and game day coach than Harbaugh.  Also, Harbaugh has never won a championship at any level of football.  Urban has 3 with 2 different teams, and is on his way to #4, and could be another one if we had been eligible in 2012.

Comment 01 Dec 2016

The study does certainly seem to have a predrawn conclusion, seeking statistics to justify it, instead of allowing the research to dictate the conclusion.  If we're talking about 5% of all penalties may be influenced by bias (or fewer than 1 per average game), that's probably comfortably within the range of tolerance and therefore statistically insignificant, ergo the study is inconclusive to the existence of bias solely based upon stats.

But see my other comment for my real thoughts on the matter.

Comment 01 Dec 2016

This isn't the first time in his career that he has fallen off.  He started off his NFL career like it went at Ohio State, hitting everything from every distance.  Then inexplicably, he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn for a while.  Then something happened and he got things together, but it took several years to recover from.  Then he started hitting everything again, like he hadn't missed a beat.  Now, he's missing PATs...  

I love Nuge and he was the best buckeye kicker in my lifetime, but something's not right, and I don't think it is his age or time in the league.  Hopefully there isn't something else going on in his personal life that is resurfacing.

Comment 01 Dec 2016

I didn't bother to read the linked article, but I'm curious as to how you could even study this in the necessary detail to determine the existence of bias.  For every play in every game each year, you'd have to determine how every defensive player interacted with every offensive player and vice versa, for the entirety of the game, and determine based upon strict interpretation of the rulebook the percentage of times an actual penalty was called when a rule was broken.  Then take those percentages for both teams in that specific game to see if, in that game, there was a bias favoring one team or the other.  It would be a phenomenal undertaking to even do 1 entire game in this manner, much less all games for all teams across a season or span of seasons.  Just looking at statistics in a vacuum and saying "Ohio State gets called for fewer penalties" doesn't equate to bias if, in fact, Ohio State actually commits fewer rule violations and subsequently is penalized less.

Having said that, however, you do need to have officiating crews that aren't "rooting" for or against any team playing.  It's like if your kid is playing sports, and you are officiating their game, you can be biased in two directions.  Either you call the game unfairly in favor of your kid, or, in order to avoid this, overcompensate, even without intending to, will result in bias the other way.  Simply put, it isn't possible to call the game fairly regardless of your best intentions.  If I'm from Ohio, I can't call a fair game for or against Ohio State (or Michigan, or Penn State for that matter), because I will either bias for them on purpose, or bias against them by overcompensation despite best efforts.  I think a lot of the Michigan whining is on this point, where you have officials from Ohio (and 1 from Michigan, who spotted the ball and awarded us with a first down) who cannot call an unbiased game despite their best efforts.  It is within the realm of possibility that the official who granted us a first time was overcompensating to not appear biased and was generous with the spot (even if evidence does actually show that he got it right).  If we hadn't gotten it, his identity as a Michigan resident would have called us to scream bias the other direction.

But if we had had PAC XII officials, maybe they call games differently, or maybe they are biased to make both teams look bad to get Washington or Colorado in?  In that respect, it is impossible to completely remove bias from the system, because it is inherent in each of us because we all have opinions and rooting interests in some respect, for good or otherwise.

Comment 01 Dec 2016

Navy may very well kill it this year.  Let it die.

If your team can't prepare in time for your bowl game, and your institution is set to loss money on it even with a win, with nobody reasonably going to even watch the game or travel to attend it, then why accept the bid?  Maybe if 5-7 teams and 6-6 teams with FCS wins should start declining invitations?  But then you lose practice time, even if for those teams it only is a loss of 2 weeks?  So you are willing to take a half a million dollar loss for 2 weeks of practice?  And this is considered a "reward for good play?"  I don't get it.  Let it die.

Comment 01 Dec 2016

We also had some really poor performances against bad teams that year, especially Penn State and the loss to VT.  Sure, the season ended with fireworks, and the post season form of the 2014 team would smash any team in the FBS this year, including the present form of OSU.  Let's hope we get a similar post season transformation this year as well.

Comment 01 Dec 2016

I was reading the article about the CFP "Freeze" if WMU loses and Navy wins.  I sincerely doubt Navy loses to Army (not that I wouldn't be excited at the prospect), but you can't rule it out obviously.

So the crux of the article is that you have the first bowl games on like the 17th, so you have maybe a week to game plan and get logistics figured out both for fans and the teams involved.  Maybe it is time to start the discussion about why we have bowl games for crappy teams on December 17th in the first place.  We used to have 9 and 10 game regular seasons back when the requirement for 6 wins was established, maybe we need to increase the threshold to 7 or 8 wins with a 12 game regular season?  A lot of the lower tier bowl games are more expensive than the revenue they generate, what incentive does a 6-6 Mac team have to show up and play for example?  This solves the "Army Navy Game" problem and gets rid of some of the waste that current bowl requirements have created.

Comment 30 Nov 2016

We had Insight prior to them getting bought out by TWC.  I ended up cutting the cable part a few years ago to cut costs leading up to my son being born, and I switched to the $15 internet which, at 3 Mbps, is still fast enough to stream HD content despite what they try to tell you (just don't try to do it with more than 1 device at a time).

We used to still get the analog signal for cable channels, but at some point they did block the signal and we only get a few channels from like 71 to 77 that come in, which is like animal planet and a few others.  We also get the digital signals for local channels and WGN that come in, so it's like 10 channels total for free.  We've watched a lot of reruns of Person of Interest and Blue Bloods on WGN over the last year, and occasionally a movie on CMT or E! that isn't terrible.

Comment 30 Nov 2016

I agree, this was just for fun.  I was looking at bowl tie-ins and then the ordering that the bowls select teams in, and I mistakenly wasn't looking at non-championship game participants from other conferences, other than the current top 10.  It would just be hilarious if the cotton bowl turned into a cupcake Big Ten OOC game from September.  I think DJ mentioned this scenario in a skully a month or two ago and it stuck with me for some reason.

I think FSU to the Orange is the most likely, but who knows who they'd play in it.  I think the Big Ten winner gets the Rose and misses the playoff no matter what, so that leaves the loser and Michigan fighting over the Orange.  The loser may not even make a NY6 bowl, but I think that's unlikely since they shouldn't drop out of the top 12.  So Penn State would probably fall to the Cotton Bowl should they lose, and I think Wisconsin would definitely go to the Cotton if they lose, provided that the Orange Bowl gets first pick before the Cotton.  If the Cotton picks first, they'd be fools not to pick Michigan for ratings alone, not that Penn State wouldn't be attractive as well with their fan base.

Comment 30 Nov 2016

LSU at 3?  Hahahahaha, I guess stupid people will be parting with their money soon enough.  I guess it isn't the bookies' fault.

Comment 30 Nov 2016

They are 11th and 19th, respectively, in the computer averages in the BCS, it is the AP/Coaches polls keeping them as high as they are.  And they are following the committee's lead, apparently.  Even still, no way either of them make the playoff, no matter how much chaos ensues.

Unrelated note, notice how the state of Michigan is shaped like an L and Ohio is shaped like a W?  That's not an accident.  Even their great lake knows to cross them out.

Comment 30 Nov 2016

I agree that PSU being ranked as high as they are is because the committee over valued the win against us initially given their resume to that point, and they've slowly climbed from there as they've kept winning (despite losing big to Michigan and not really playing anyone else noteworthy).  Oklahoma State is kind of a similar situation where they are around 20th in the computers and  yet pollsters have them with the committee at 10/11 despite a not great resume and the loss to CMU.  But at the same time, you do have to fill out 25 teams in the rankings and even though a lot of teams are garbage with 2-4 losses, they have to rank somebody so there you have LSU and Auburn and the like getting spots.  So Alabama looks like they have a strong resume when none of their wins will be against teams with fewer than 4 losses, and could lose the SEC title game and still end up seeded first.

Comment 30 Nov 2016

I'm trying to come up with a scenario in which Michigan plays Western Michigan in the Cotton Bowl.  I don't know why but this would be hilarious to me.

Assuming the playoff is Alabama/Washington and Ohio State/Clemson:

  • Cotton: W. Mich or Navy/Temple winner vs. Michigan
  • Rose: Penn State/Wisconsin winner vs. Colorado
  • Orange: VTech vs. Penn State/Wisconsin loser???
  • Sugar: Okla/Okla St. winner vs. Florida

I think this is actually possible.  This could be the worst bowl season ever, short of an epic playoff field.  I think it's awesome.

Comment 30 Nov 2016

The last few weeks I almost used these rankings for a "predict the CFP rankings" thread.  And once again they match nearly perfectly.

Comment 30 Nov 2016

He usually does.  Since the CFP rankings are Sunday this week, I don't know if he will have his updated, he usually updates them Monday night or Tuesday morning.  As soon as he has them posted and I can do a comparison, I'll post the final thread.

So far, we are 2 for 2 in matchups where the CFP exactly matches the BCS in the matchups that would have been generated, even if the ordering is different.  I don't expect that to change this year, unless the 3 B1G in the top 4 scenario occurs.

Comment 30 Nov 2016

I agree, unless we end up with Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan as 2-4.  In that scenario you have to believe that the committee, for the first time, will diverge from the BCS and put in Colorado or Oklahoma, or even Clemson despite the loss.  Clemson would be the only to not win their conference in that scenario, but would also be the only team without a loss to other teams in contention that are on the fringe, and I don't know if it is Michigan or Wisconsin that they jump.  I don't want to be a committee member if this happens, for sure.