The charts suggest that the overall trade value heavily favors the Browns. The only way that it doesn't is either:
1. If we rely on the old Jimmy Johnson trade chart and discount picks in future years by the traditional one round per year. In my opinion, this doesn't sound like the way to go. First, the Jimmy Johnson chart is based on qualitative guesstimates of value in the early 1990s rather than any systematic evaluation of post-draft performance, making it poor for determining actual value although potentially advantageous (from a game theory perspective) for bargaining for the best possible deal, since it overvalues the #2 pick. Second, since the Browns are in "win later" mode rather than "win now" mode, it probably doesn't make sense for us to discount future picks.
2. If we are convinced that the Browns would have used the #2 pick to draft a star at the game's most important position and won't net any stars with the picks they got in return. This is pretty subjective and everyone will have a different opinion--even career football professionals--especially before any of the picks have played a down or even been selected. Which is why it hinges on #1 for me.
Obviously, trade value isn't the same as outcome though. So now it'll be up to the Browns to translate overall draft value into wins. Which unfortunately would be a new thing for us.
For reference, here are some different valuations that I calculated (quickly, so I can't promise they're error-free)
- Eagles +20%: Using the old Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, discounting future picks, and placing both teams in the middle of the draft order for future years.
- Browns +17%: Jimmy Johnson chart without discounting future picks. The rough symmetry between these first two valuations suggests that the Jimmy Johnson chart might have been used as a baseline for the trade terms, with the Eagles choosing the valuation that discounts the future and the Browns taking the one that doesn't. If we'd somehow managed to game the Eagles into making a trade at perfectly even terms under the discounted valuation however, it would have been epic, considering that it would have made the Browns' advantage using every other valuation even larger.
- Browns +52%: Using this chart that Kevin Meers (now the Browns' Director of Football Research) created in 2011 based on the value that players at each draft spot demonstrated in their actual careers (i.e. a much stronger empirical basis than the Jimmy Johnson chart.) This valuation also discounts future years using the same method above.
- Browns +80%: Using the Kevin Meers chart without discounting future years.
- Browns +45%: Using this chart by Chase Stuart at the Foosball Perspective website, discounting future years.
- Browns +74%: Using the Chase Stuart chart without discounting future years.