DiasporaBuck's picture

DiasporaBuck


Member since 09 September 2013 | Blog

Lurker since TatGate in 2010 and then finally signed up for an account a few years later. I post rarely, but read the site several times a day even when football and basketball are in the offseason.

Recent Activity

Comment 20 Apr 2016

The charts suggest that the overall trade value heavily favors the Browns.  The only way that it doesn't is either:

1.  If we rely on the old Jimmy Johnson trade chart and discount picks in future years by the traditional one round per year.  In my opinion, this doesn't sound like the way to go.  First, the Jimmy Johnson chart is based on qualitative guesstimates of value in the early 1990s rather than any systematic evaluation of post-draft performance, making it poor for determining actual value although potentially advantageous (from a game theory perspective) for bargaining for the best possible deal, since it overvalues the #2 pick.  Second, since the Browns are in "win later" mode rather than "win now" mode, it probably doesn't make sense for us to discount future picks. 

2.  If we are convinced that the Browns would have used the #2 pick to draft a star at the game's most important position and won't net any stars with the picks they got in return.  This is pretty subjective and everyone will have a different opinion--even career football professionals--especially before any of the picks have played a down or even been selected.  Which is why it hinges on #1 for me.

Obviously, trade value isn't the same as outcome though.  So now it'll be up to the Browns to translate overall draft value into wins.  Which unfortunately would be a new thing for us.

For reference, here are some different valuations that I calculated (quickly, so I can't promise they're error-free)

  • Eagles +20%: Using the old Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, discounting future picks, and placing both teams in the middle of the draft order for future years.
  • Browns +17%: Jimmy Johnson chart without discounting future picks.  The rough symmetry between these first two valuations suggests that the Jimmy Johnson chart might have been used as a baseline for the trade terms, with the Eagles choosing the valuation that discounts the future and the Browns taking the one that doesn't.  If we'd somehow managed to game the Eagles into making a trade at perfectly even terms under the discounted valuation however, it would have been epic, considering that it would have made the Browns' advantage using every other valuation even larger.
  • Browns +52%: Using this chart that Kevin Meers (now the Browns' Director of Football Research) created in 2011 based on the value that players at each draft spot demonstrated in their actual careers (i.e. a much stronger empirical basis than the Jimmy Johnson chart.)  This valuation also discounts future years using the same method above.
  • Browns +80%: Using the Kevin Meers chart without discounting future years.
  • Browns +45%: Using this chart by Chase Stuart at the Foosball Perspective website, discounting future years.
  • Browns +74%: Using the Chase Stuart chart without discounting future years.
Comment 20 Apr 2016

"What can the Browns do for Hue" is what I thought when reading your first post.  Although not all that witty either and probably not even original.  Still, it made me titter.

Comment 20 Apr 2016

Instead I think we should aim to get every pick in this year's 7th round.  Including the compensatory picks at the end o' the 6th round, because the stats show that this is the best way to get players like Tom Brady and Arian Foster.  (I keed, I keed.  I actually love sports and non-sports analytics, as microsoft excel has helped me make my fantasy football leagues completely uncompetitive and even put me three years ahead of my office at work.  Both of which have upsides and downsides....)

The inspiration for this strategy comes from my brother, who used to acquire all the $1 bills in Monopoly so that any time you had to make small change you had to negotiate through him.

Comment 20 Apr 2016

I was hoping they'd find a way to stay in the top 6 because that's where the dropoff seems to be this year, but SoBe it.

Comment 20 Apr 2016

The analytics must have told DePodesta that the Browns are bad at drafting.

Pure gold

Comment 20 Apr 2016

Regression to the mean would probably mean multiple Super Bowl wins for the Browns

Comment 29 Dec 2015
What he said. What B1G coach worth his salt wouldn't be gunning for us? We're certainly not the first or only team to use some version of The Chase as a motivational theme. (Turns out it's much more effective than the The Chased theme that we used this year. Maybe next year it'll be The Unchaste. ....Aaaand since there are way too many follow-on jokes there, I'll just see myself out now.)
Comment 25 Nov 2015

There might be some reverse causality in these stats.  On days when giving it to Brax is working well against a defense, it'll push up the stats and usually result in more touches.  And on days when the defense is containing him well, we're less likely to call his number as many times.

Comment 23 Nov 2015

It just means that 538 expects MSU to completely Spart themselves if they make it to the playoffs, whereas the models expect us to outperform them if we can find a way in.  Which syncs well with what I'd expect.

Comment 23 Nov 2015

That would definitely make for an exciting finale.

Btw, sorry to everyone for forgetting to wear my lucky gameday shirt on Saturday.  It's all my fault.  I was adjusting back from roughly a half-day difference in time zones and days behind on sleep, so I didn't wake up until our last possession and forgot to put on my thus-far undefeated gameday shirt.  Speaking of which, what happens now to DJ's hitherto undefeated "get dumped then" hex?