I actually think a Bama loss, a Clemson win, and an Iowa win puts us in. We'd be the only 1 loss team left in the current top 25 in the CFP. The fourth spot would come down to us, 2 loss Florida as the SEC champion (who just got smacked by FSU at home), or 2 loss Stanford (both losses being to unranked teams, 1 at home and 1 on the road).
I think the arguments get dicier if Clemson loses, because we have to win the argument over 1 loss UNC as a power 5 conference champ. I also think it gets dicier if Iowa loses because putting us in the playoff creates a potential MSU-OSU rematch, and that might be enough to put one of the 2 loss conference champs (probably Florida) in over us.