analyticalguy's picture


Member since 26 July 2012 | Blog

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Comment 30 Nov 2015

It's impossible and unreasonable to project ANYONE as an "all pro" who hasn't played a down in the League.  I think it's fair to say that he has the tools to make it as a pro.  I'd love him to stay, but find it unlikely.

Comment 30 Nov 2015

Pretty close to what I think.  My differences? 

Bosa over 99% likely to go, rather than 98%.

Thomas closer to 95% than 90%. 

Elflein closer to 70-75% than 85% (he may gain value by demonstrating versatility as a center, and he seems to like the whole college experience).

Conley more like 10-15% than 20%. 

As I said - I'm in very close agreement.

Comment 30 Nov 2015

Oklahoma is in.

Big 10 winner is in

Clemson is in if they win.  A one-loss UNC that knocks off Clemson is in, unless that is a narrow victory aided by injuries, and either blown calls, and/or a freak play (and maybe even then)

 Alabama is in if they win.  Florida is almost certainly in if they win.

Pac10 is probably out unless (perhaps) Stanford curb-stomps USC, in which case they may overtake a Florida or UNC team that posts an unconvincing win.

The only chance the Buckeyes have is if UNC wins unconvincingly, Stanford loses, and MSU crushes Iowa (making the Buckeye's loss appear better). I'm not even sure then that the Buckeyes get in vs a Clemson team whose close loss to UNC is aided by injuries/blown calls/freak plays (even though that also means taking them over a one-loss team who beast them) , and I'm thinking that an SEC champ two-loss Florida squeaks in ahead of one-loss tOSU, even if it's close.  So the Buckeyes need a Stanford loss, and a committee that leans the right way with a close UNC win.   Remember, tOSU not only has just one victory over a ranked opponent, but only one other victory over a Power Five team with a winning record (PSU, at 7-5). Its only other wins against teams WITHOUT losing records are two MAC teams (with 4 and 5 losses), and a pair of 6-6 Power 5 teams (VaTech and Indiana).

All that having been said, cannot we just enjoy the recent beat-down of TTUN?

Comment 30 Nov 2015

There may be a sliver of a chance.  I've been saying since mid-season that the Buckeyes had to win out to make the playoffs, and they didn't.  Even if "chaos" reigns in the championship games this coming weekend, five Power Five conference champions will be crowned, and the committee would have to a) snub at least 2 of them, AND b) select tOSU over every other non-champion for them to get in, despite their having only one win (albeit a convincing one) over a ranked opponent. The hoped for complete "chaos" is unlikely, and the Buckeyes' emergence from it would still be iffy at best.  I'm afraid the Buckeyes-in-the-playoffs ship sailed with the loss to MSU.

Comment 17 Nov 2015

If he's on track academically he will graduate.  The (inane) NCAA rule for a grad transfer (which is what he'd be) is that, for him to play immediately, it's supposed to be to a school that offers a major NOT offered by the school he's leaving. I find it difficult to believe that any MAC offers a degree tOSU doesn't.  I don't know how strictly the rule is enforced. There has to be some Div I school somewhere who could use his talent that offers such a degree.  The other option would be to go to a Div II school where there is no such barrier.

Comment 17 Nov 2015

Tyvis is a redshirt JR (like Cardale), but he doesn't have the set of physical tools (for his position) as Cardale does (for his).  Cardale gets drafted in the middle rounds when he declares this year, but I doubt Tyvis does at all, so he'll come back, pick up a grad degree (maybe a 2nd - I think I remember reading that he got his bachelor's last spring) and get to play for another year., rather than merely hoping to make some NFL practice squad.

Comment 17 Nov 2015

On the field, yes, in the rotation, but barring injury to Lewis or Hubbard (and perhaps one or more of the others), I don't expect him to start.

Comment 16 Nov 2015

^^^  This.

We can all laud someone who has played with excellence, even for only 3 years, but Senior recognition is just that - for seniors.

Comment 16 Nov 2015

We can expect redshirt juniors who are expected to declare for the draft (and can expect to be drafted) to be given their sendoffs - i.e., Cardale, and cantguardmike.  If Elflein has decided to go pro, then he would get the same, but I doubt that decision is made yet (I expect him to return to play center and demonstrate versatility).  Starter Tyvis Powell will NOT be pushed out, and I can't imagine him either declaring for the draft or hanging up his cleats just yet.  I expect that Brionte will be back to challenge for a starting position next year, or at least pick up spot duty. I'm not sure if we have any other redshirt juniors besides Warren Ball; he could decide to graduate and take his talents someplace someplace where he can see the field (would that be viewed as Urbs pushing him out the door?).

Comment 13 Nov 2015

Agreed.  I think it's really hard to do a fair job of ranking teams until the FULL schedule has played out.  A team that plays its toughest teams early in the season (and won them) isn't better than one who plays their tough games later (and also wins them).  But, before the latter part of the season, they HAVE actually won those games, while what the second team will do is still in doubt and subject to conjecture.  I like how the committee doesn't lock someone into a position early and then have to justify how much a given win or loss can move them up or down.  Let's enjoy the season, and the competition with the remaining opponents.  Win and we're in. 

Comment 12 Nov 2015

I like both of these guys, and how they fill out the front court by complementing the guys already on board.  It bodes well for the Buckeyes that Kobi Simmons is in no rush to make a decision, giving time for something to shake out with the players currently on the roster. Despite then fact it would mean we lost someone, for some reason, the addition of Simmons along with these two would give three straight strong classes, giving Matta several opportunities at championships (dare we hope for a Natty?) in upcoming seasons.

Comment 09 Nov 2015

It.  Makes.  No.  Difference.

Ignore him.  He has no vote.  He's a paid troll.  Ignore him, and maybe eventually he won't be paid, or at least not as much.

No matter where the Buckeyes are ranked now, in relation to Iowa any other team (by the committee or anyone else), if they win out, they're in.  If they don't win out, then they're probably not.

Comment 06 Nov 2015

This year, with the results in thus far, there can be at most 3 unbeaten Power 5 teams.  All would make the playoffs.  Alabama as a one-loss SEC champion would probably selected over an unbeaten All American Conf champ  (sorry Houston or Memphis), or a one-loss Pac12 champ. So in that sense, the only unbeaten team Alabama could be "picked over" at least would not be from a Power 5 Conference.  Seedings among the 4 playoff teams may be another issue, and there it is reasonable (with the results debatable of course) for the committee to rank them according to who they think are the best teams.  No matter the seeding, to win, each of the 4 teams still has to beat two very good teams. 

Comment 04 Nov 2015

I think it's all useless speculation.  Even how the actual committee is ranking them right now is pretty irrelevant.  Every year it's going to come down to picking from among a) the 5 Power 5 champions; b) Notre Dame if they're 11-1 or better; c) an undefeated champion, if there is one, from another conference, and PERHAPS d) a special one-loss team that for some reason didn't win its Power 5 conference.  Any "choosing" at this time is speculation and prediction from among teams that haven't yet shot themselves in the foot. there are too many important regular season games yet, including most rivalries, plus the conference championships. Remember last year, how the 16th-rated not only got in but won?  I suspect there will be similar stories this year.  So play the games and THEN if it's not clear, make the decision from among the 5-7 teams still standing.

Comment 04 Nov 2015

It really doesn't matter how many teams each conference has "in the hunt."  It's highly unlikely that ANY conference will get more than one in the playoff.  An undefeated MSU, OSU or Iowa will definitely be in, as will any undefeated Power 5 champion.  If it comes down to selecting among one-loss Power 5 champs, things get interesting (difficult) particularly if there ends up being an undefeated Houston/Memphis/Temple demanding attention. A 2-loss team probably doesn't make it, even as a conference game champ, unless there aren't 4 undefeated teams and/or one-loss conference game champs.  So let the season play out, and let the Buckeyes WIN out.

Comment 30 Oct 2015

The committee may remember how well that worked out last year (meaning FSU).  It doesn't matter, though - if OSU wins out, they're definitely in.  And if they don't, they're probably not (you can imagine scenarios, but get real folks).  And, if they win out, given the caliber of the teams they'll be facing, they will be #1 or #2.  

Comment 30 Oct 2015

In no particular order:

Big Bang Theory, Seinfeld, Everybody Loves Raymond, Friends, Modern Family, Law & Order SVU, Blue Bloods, Mr. Robot, Chopped