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analyticalguy


Member since 26 July 2012 | Blog

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Comment 8 hours ago

I recall an article that must have run circa 1980, because it analyzed top 10 and top 26 finishes during the 1970s to determine the best programs in that decade. The "Top 9" were the same ten teams on this list, less Tennessee.  (UCLA was a distant 10th).  I think that, by whatever metric you use (w/l %, rankings, championships, bowls wins, recruiting classes, all-americans, players drafted, etc), and over any significant period in the "modern era," you're going to see the same teams show up near the top. Players drafted will undoubtedly correlate with team success.

Over a long period of time, you'll see teams gradually slip in and out of the top tier, whether temporarily or permanently. Miami slipped in, but has since slipped out.  FSU is a somewhat late arrival, and Oregon even later.  Texas and TTUN are a bit down now, but I doubt that lasts (despite the wishes and beliefs of members here).

Comment 9 hours ago

I agree 100%. I think we're going to see a roughly similar number of guys starting for 2 years (sometimes three), it's just that more of them will being doing so in 2nd & 3rd year of program, than in 3rd and 4th. With strong classes lined up several year in a row, you're still going to see guys "blocked" for a year or two who break through in their 3rd, 4th or even 5th year. We may see slightly few fewer 4th or 5th year players overall playing major roles, but that doesn't necessarily mean we'll routinely see lineups with less "on the field" experience. Some of those players will just have received that experience slightly earlier in their careers..  And the underclassman who break through that logjam of high-level talent ahead of them to see the field?  They'll be something special.

Comment 9 hours ago

So, for the SEC, it was never a matter a principle (in which case they would maintain their own ban), but whether it favored them.  Imagine!

Comment 12 hours ago

Well, then, does 463rd in this year's draft translate into 207th in next year's draft? That could work.

Comment 27 Apr 2016

My opinion is that NONE of the pre-season rankings are "fair," because no one has yet proven anything. Based on their results the past few seasons, though, it's hard to quarrel with the accuracy the predictions. They recruit well and are always loaded.

Comment 26 Apr 2016

It never ceases to amaze me how/why ANYONE pays attention to ratings that come out before the first game is played. Wait until halfway through the season, and then start ranking teams. (I'm such a crotchety old fart)

Comment 26 Apr 2016

There are a number of guys on that list, Buckeyes not excluded, who may be drafted higher than hindsight will later prove they should have been.  When is that ever not the case?  But all of them should and will be drafted, Thomas may or may not turn out to be great, but (barring injury) will be at least a serviceable receiver for years. Cardale comes with some risk - no guarantee despite a potential high upside, and whoever drafts him may need to exercise patience. 

Comment 26 Apr 2016

In 2016:

Marcus Baugh (a tight end!) will have at least 40 pass receptions.

Joe John Burrow will throw a TD pass in a game with the outcome not yet decided.

Some Buckeye will return a kickoff for a touchdown.

Buckeyes will set a school record with 48 quarterback sacks.

Comment 26 Apr 2016

Interesting.  I didn't realize there was anyone besides Buckeyes in the draft.  I need to get out more.

Comment 25 Apr 2016

He just has a distinctive defensive style.  He lets his man dribble past him and then tries to reach around to poke the ball lose.  Can he help it that his man always has the perfect reaction to this move - i.e., taking to the hole for a layup. 

Comment 25 Apr 2016

Analyticalguy here, sometimes referred to as AG by fellow 11W post-ers (perhaps because they can't spell "analytical").  I'm a Buckeye by birthright, having been born and raised in Ohio, with my dad an alumnus (and attendee at the Blizzard Bowl), but I attended the latest and most marginal member school of the Big Ten.

I live in NJ, am way too old, tend to ramble on far too long in my posts, and am much too boring ever to have been jailed or nuked. 

Go Bucks!  

Comment 25 Apr 2016

Yes, but if the power company ever came by to do maintenance...