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Does Ohio State have a realistic shot at the AP national title?

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NoVA Buckeye's picture

Before last night, no.
After last night, I don't see why not?

The offseason begins when your season ends. Even then there are no days off.

Buckeye in Illini country's picture

I could see them getting a few first place votes, assuming we beat TTUN, but it won't be enough to overcome either ND or a one-loss SEC team winning the MNC game.

Columbus to Pasadena: 35 hours.  We're on a road trip through the desert looking for strippers and cocaine... and Rose Bowl wins!

741's picture

Assuming our dream scenario of a Notre Dame loss to USC and a win over our most hated rival to the north, we would be deserving of a #1 AP ranking for a week, but the lack of opportunity to put up wins in a championship game and a bowl game makes for all but impossible odds of OSU sitting atop the final poll.

Jugdish's picture

Even if OSU was the only undefeated team left, nobody would respect us enough to be no. 1 in the AP. It would seem to me that the best we could hope for is no. 3. The top 2 will be playing for the national championship.

Remember to get your wolverine spayed or neutered. TBDBITL

bucknut3011's picture

Unfortunately... true.

Hoody Wayes's picture

Ohio State is one of two undefeated teams in the top ten of the AP. Like it or not, both Ohio State and ND have a lot of pull with AP voters. Urban Meyer's star power gets votes, too. 
Two things must happen, next Saturday. If they do, Ohio State has a realistic shot at the AP national title

DMcDougal24's picture

There are too many AP voters that don't rank OSU high enough every single week.. Whether that's because of the bowl ban or because they don't think we're very good, it doesn't really matter.. Combine that with no B1G championship and no bowl game win, and we aren't nearly as appealing as the year recently where USC did it

buckeyedude's picture

Seriously, I dont give a flying fart. Beat Michigan, and I'll be a happy camper throughout the winter and into next season.
2013 is just around the corner, and that is where the prize is. I do feel bad for this year's seniors though.

 

 

buckeye76BHop's picture

There are many variables that were set in motion last night which could make an AP championship happen.  Even if we finish 2nd in the AP and win the Leaders division, those would be great accomplishments for this team (not to mention being the sixth team to be undefeated/without a tie in OSU's history).  I personally believe the SEC will win a NC and even with one lose will finish ahead of OSU no matter what.  The media have their lips around each and every team's you know what in that conference. Just look at this and you'll see what I mean.

"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."

"I love football. I think it is most wonderful game in world and I despise to lose."

Woody Hayes 1913 - 1987 

RedStorm45's picture

No.  1 loss Alabama is better.  A 1 loss Georgia is better.  A 1 loss Oregon might even be better.  Our SOS is a joke, which unfortunately you have to look at with no conf. championship game or bowl game.  Plus, whoever wins the BCS Championship game will beat the "#2" team and that alone will be a far superior opponent than we've faced.  

onetwentyeight's picture

UHHH BamaR's strength of schedule is a joke as well. They've played exactly 2 good teams. They're 1-1 against them. Look at all their "impressive" blowouts. Look at the W-L record of those teams. It's pathetic. 
Give me one real reason backed up by evidence (not, "they just LOOK more better duh") why we're a worse team than Bama. 
What if we beat Michigan this weel by a larger margin? How about the fact that we haven't LOST yet? Isn't that the whole point? Stop buying the SEC media hype. If bama started out the season #11 instead of #1 they wouldn't be anywhere close to this highly regarded. They're still riding on the fumes of last year's team which was a great team, but also happened to consist of almost entirely DIFFERENT players than this year's. 

BuckeyeinAnnArbor's picture

They have three wins over ranked teams by a combined margin of victory of 62 points, including a victory over the #5 team in the country.  We have one win over ranked teams. Their SOS is right around #10, ours is 50-70 depending on the computer.  Also, you really can't just dimiss the eye test.  It's pretty clear that this team could not match Alabama in terms of talent.

onetwentyeight's picture

That's their ONLY win though. They beat LSU in OT. Michigan isn't a good team, and like I said earlier, if we beat michigan by a higher margin than they do, would that change your mind? Mississippi state's SOS before Bama was worse than ours I'm pretty sure. Once they started playing 'real' teams they lost THREE straight (and are still ranked, somehow. S-E-C!!! Can you imagine a team from any other conference still being ranked after a 3 game losing streak? ) 
If you discount wins over "fraud" teams that were overrated at the time of the games (Michi & Miss St) bama is, like i said, 1-1 vs good teams. And they didn't dominate EITHER of these games. Both A&M and LSU outgained them in every single important offensive statistic. 
 
I don't buy that eye test garbage, sorry. "Eye test" is the hubris that got us 41-14ed by Urban Meyer's 2 loss UF Gators in 2006. The "Eye test" people also didn't believe me when I predicted Johnny Football knocking off Bama. "Eye test" is how a team in the S-E-C can stay ranked after a three game losing streak. "Eye tests" are irrational and subject to all sorts of blatant biases. There's no "perfect" alternative I admit but the least we can do is rationally look at these teams, who they have played, and how good these teams are. You know, common sense. My common sense tells me Bama is 1-1 against good teams and that Ohio State hasn't lost yet. I'd give us a fair chance. 
 
 

avail31678's picture

Had no idea that was the case with Miss St.  That's unexcusable.  I give them a pass for losing to the #1 ranked team.  But losing three in a row - no team should be in the top 25 after that. 

Buckeye in Illini country's picture

If we don't use the "eye test" we should just use computer rankings right?  Such as Sagarin's which has The Ohio State Buckeyes ranked 16.

Columbus to Pasadena: 35 hours.  We're on a road trip through the desert looking for strippers and cocaine... and Rose Bowl wins!

SPreston2001's picture

Yeah I have to disagree with you man. The eye test is probably the best way to judge a team. If that was the case coaches wouldnt go see recruits in person they would just check out the stats and pick the kids with the best numbers. Bamas defense is the real deal. Their offense isnt exactly explosive, but its tough as nails and pretty efficient. You can use your same analogy about us. Who the hell have we beat that warrants us being a top 5 team?? Weve struggled against weaker teams while Bama blewout weaker teams as they should. I hate the SEC too but com'on man Bama is a legit top 1-2 team...

onetwentyeight's picture

I disagree with your disagreement (LOL). IF there was a way to statistically measure the level of competition in HS football and filter all recruits and who they play objectively through that, then yes I say only look at stats. The problem, as we all know, is that stats get inflated depending on the level of competition. Ok. But hypothetically speaking, if you can adjust for level of competition, then coaches should only be looking at measureable analytics and stats. Football is slow to this trend but it's slowly and inevitably taking over in other sports (like baseball, basketball) and even things like political polling (partisan feelings aside, the statistics people were the REAL 2012 election winners...)
Eye test is a more easy way of saying "gut test", which is just another form of saying "we're making this s*it up as we go along". 
Nothing Bama has shown me ON THE FIELD has indicated that they're a top 1-2 team. They beat a crappy Michigan team that we will shortly curbstomp, and a Miss St team that went on a 3 game losing streak the moment they began playing teams with a higher than .500 record. Against A&M and LSU, Bama has been outscored 46-45 and is 1-1. Not exactly world-beating indicators. 

SPreston2001's picture

So now were gonna curb stomp the most explosive offense we will face all year just like we were gonna stomp Wisky, Purdue, Cal, etc?? This last game is not gonna be a cake walk but im HOPING we blow the breaks off their asses!!

onetwentyeight's picture

Hey before the actual Nebraska curb-stomping we squeaked by MSU 17-16 and everyone was FRETTING LIKE CRAZY around these parts. 
 
Trust In Urban Meyer. 

SPreston2001's picture

I fully trust in Urb but I also realize that this years team just isnt where it needs to be just yet. Maybe in a few years but right now were an above average team....

Buckeye80's picture

Unfortunately we don't get enough respect, so I don't think it will happen.  When we beat tsun, we will be 12-0 and nobody can take that away, so who cares what anybody else thinks.  We all know about the bias of much of the media, and for the most part I don't care if the B10 is weak.  All I care about is the team in scarlet and gray....

TennesseeJohn's picture

If USC wins and the buckeyes put a decisive beating on ttun I can see it. A lot will depend also on the outcome of the SEC championship game.

BoFuquel's picture

Nuttin' gonna stop The Whore From South Bend,until She meet GOBAMA in the NC game. Hey Mr. Tally Man Tally Me Heisman.Te'o Teeeeeee'O Te'o.GO BUCKS!

I wish I didn't know now what I didn't know then.

onetwentyeight's picture

MARK TITUS last night went down this road on Twitter: Basically,
"Mark Titus ‏@clubtrillion
Not trolling. OSU has a chance now, right? USC > ND, GA > Bama, ? > GA. 12-0 OSU vs 1 loss ND & UO, 2 loss SECs. UF/FSU winner sneaks in?"

Bucksfan's picture

We needed the Buckeyes to thrash Wiscy and Michigan for all the world to see that OSU cannot be stopped.  But, Brax and the offense were contained fairly well, and were substantially outplayed by a very green QB and a running back that we knew was going to be a big part of the attack.
So, I think the Wisconsin performance took Ohio State out of it.  "Looks" matter in the AP championship...not just wins as many of you seem to think.  In order for Ohio State to get the AP title now, you will need 1) Notre Dame to lose to USC, 2) Georgia to lose to Georgia Tech, 3) Georgia to beat Alabama in the SEC title game, 4) Florida to lose to Florida State, 5) Stanford has to beat UCLA (keeps Oregon from winning the Pac-12).
That's the kind of unprecedented chaos we'd need.  All of those 5 things have to happen.

Evansvillebuckeye's picture

Not with the national bias...

SPreston2001's picture

Naw not at all. But honestly were not the best team in the country so im not even worried about it. I just wanna curb stomp scUM!

buckeyefanatic's picture

Realistic?  No.  I just don't see us even coming close.  Its like every single favorite from today forward would have to lose just to get voters to throw their hands in the air and say "fuck it there is no better choice and OSU *is* undefeated"
ND loss against SC and bowl game
'bama loss in SEC championship game
Oregon loss in PAC12 championship game
Kansas St loss to Texas next weekend
Florida loss to FSU next weekend
Georgia loss in NC

... I guess if that happens??
 
EDIT:  I guess I should add, I'm not opposed to getting an AP title if it fell in our lap.  Like Urban says, we're a very good team but not a great team.  There is something to be said for a team that fights like ours does and refuses to lose, I'll give them that.  I would be great to see how far that can be taken against a really good team which we haven't faced this year.

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Want to beat Michigan? There's an App for that.

cajunbuckeye's picture

No we don't. We do have a chance to put an exclamation point on a very special season. Beat Michiscum and this one goes down in the books as the tenth undefeated season in Buckeye history. A team came together and ran the table for the Seniors, themselves, the coaches, and the University. AMAZING! 2002 is my personal favorite as far as seasons go, but this year is moving towards #2. These young men have something to really be proud of. BEAT MICHISCUM!!!

An angry fan...rooting for an angry team...led by angry coaches

Cbusfan23's picture

I'm perplexed at two of the different types of comments that I've seen on this thread:
 
1.  Buckeye fans who think we have no shot at finishing #1 in the AP poll.  If Notre Dame loses we will this season as the ONLY undefeated team in the country and will move up to at least #3 in the ranking behind two teams that will play each other in the SEC championship the following week (Alabama & Georgia).  
This means that going into the National Championship game we will be at #2 in the country with a ND loss.  If the #1 team were to lose to the #3 in the title game, then we have a very legitmate case to finish as the #1 team in the country.  
 
2.  Buckeye fans who "don't care if we finish #1" and think that it would be fun to just beat Michigan and be undefeated.  Are we serious?  Ohio State has a very realistic shot at winning the AP championship and claiming their 8th official national championship and we don't care if we finish #1?  The obvious question here is if winning a national championship isn't something to care about - what is?

Seabass1974's picture

If we we finish undefeated and there are no others that are undefeated, then yes, Ohio State should be number 1. It's that simlple. However, the AP really seems to have a bone to pick with us over our ban.
Although, it is speculated that when the NCAA changes it's rulebook those players will have done minor infractions that wouldn't even be punishable under the new rules. After that they are talking about giving us our entire season back to us.

The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender. - Woody Hayes

btalbert25's picture

It's not going to happen guys.  It's fun to talk about, but we should just put this idea to bed.  Did you see the number of ballots that had Ohio State 10 or lower? People are going to vote them down simply because they don't think a team on probation should be considered.  Even if all the ifs in Titus' tweet happen, there's still a very good chance Ohio State doesn't even finish 2 or 3 in the AP poll. 

buckeye76BHop's picture

The SEC teams in the top 25 play "cupcakes" just as the B1G teams do for OCC games.  However, if you look at the MAC, it's not too "cupcake" these days.  I'm not sure about how most feel, I see the SEC teams to be a bit overrated IMO.  Last year and a couple years when Urban was at FL, yeah...they dominated.  But now...I'm not sold like most media outlets (ESPIN, AP writers and others) seem to be.  tB1G has 4 teams in the top 25...SEC has 5...it's too bad we can't play in a bowl game and conference title game.  That I do believe (going 13-0) would be a tough argument for a 11-1 Bama or Georgia team to go in front of OSU...just a shame for the seniors really.  They'd be great against ND IMHO...but oh well...

"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."

"I love football. I think it is most wonderful game in world and I despise to lose."

Woody Hayes 1913 - 1987 

Seabass1974's picture

If they go 12 - 0, I'll crown them National Champions my damn self.

The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender. - Woody Hayes

yrro's picture

I think there's a chance, but it requires a one-loss SEC champion to play a 1-loss champion from another conference, and lose. And probably some strangeness in the other bowls.
 

Buckeye Chuck's picture

Voted no, because based on the most recent polls, it definitely appears that a critical mass of voters has decided it will never rank the Buckeyes ahead of any one-loss team from the SEC.
Is it realistic to expect 1) Notre Dame to lose; 2) the Bama-Georgia winner to lose the national championship game;  3) the Florida-Florida State winner to lose its bowl game (Florida State is an honorary SEC member for respect purposes); and 4) both Oregon and Kansas State to remain behind the Buckeyes should they win their BCS game? Keep in mind that if the Irish lose to USC, some team currently ranked below us will benefit by playing in the national title game.
What we really need is the SEC totally out of the BCS title game, and I doubt that can happen now unless Florida State beats Florida (a fair-to-good chance) and Georgia Tech beats Georgia (way unlikely).

The most "loud mouth, disrespect" poster on 11W.

nickma71's picture

Since realistic and possible are different, then yes. OSU has a good chance of running the table, and there is a good chance at a 1 loss BCS champion. I myself would not vote OSU over Alabama. Don't kid yourselves. Our Buckeyes are much better, especially in the trenches on offense where my hero the Senator was soft for a decade. And Meyer and Herman are in fact more agressive play callers on offense. Since Herbstreit says KSU has no chance because of how they lost, the same should be said of Georgia. They were humilated by South Carolina. You can't lose like that with other teams one loss being a close game against a good oponent.
And at the same time, I can't see Georgia beating Alabama. So that scenario is unlikely with Georgia being BCS champ.