If you follow Ohio State, you know the Buckeyes will be very young and inexperienced when the weather (hopefully) breaks and spring practice commences at the Woody Hayes Athletic Center.
Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes roll the footballs out for organized practice beginning March 8 and culminating with the annual spring game at Ohio Stadium April 16. Then comes fall camp in early August and the season opener roughly a month later in Columbus against Bowling Green Sept. 3.
Loads of things are bound to happen before the opening of spring drills, including National Signing Day Feb. 3. Meyer and his staff have the pedal to the metal to close out their 2016 class with a bang, a group that as of Friday sits at 21 members. But it is never too early to look at this fall's schedule for a team that finished 12-1 in 2015 and beat Notre Dame 44-28 in the Fiesta Bowl New Year's Day.
Ohio State returns a few key members from that team, including but not limited to quarterback J.T. Barrett, soon-to-be center Pat Elflein and middle linebacker Raekwon McMillan. Those three were already named captain by Meyer earlier this month and will be counted upon during offseason workouts and into fall camp with so much youth in the program. Only six seniors are on roster, a number that could slip to five if Corey Smith is not granted a medical redshirt.
What does such a young team have to look forward to in terms of opponents for 2016? For one, it won't have to wait until Labor Day Night for its season opener and then play another game five days later. Let's explore the 2016 slate.
Week One
Opponent: Bowling Green State Falcons – 2015 record: 10-4, MAC Champions, lost 58-27 to Georgia Southern in GoDaddy Bowl. Final Sagarin Ranking: 53
Location: Ohio Stadium
Date: Sept. 3
The Skinny: The Falcons named Mike Jinks the 19th head coach in program history Dec. 9, after Dino Babers bolted to Syracuse before the bowl game. Defensive coordinator Brian Ward served as interim head coach before Jinks' hire.
Babers was 18-9 at Bowling Green before leaving to lead the Orange, and despite his exit and the ugly bowl loss, the Falcons return a solid bit talent in an effort to defend their conference title. Stud quarterback Matt Johnson (46 touchdowns, eight interceptions in 2015) is gone as well as 2015 leading rusher Travis Green and star receiver Roger Lewis declared for the NFL Draft. Bowling Green led the MAC in scoring at 42.2 points per game in 2015.
Week Two
Opponent: Tulsa – 2015 record: 6-7, lost 55-52 to Virginia Tech in Independence Bowl. Final Sagarin Ranking: 97
Location: Ohio Stadium
Date: Sept. 10
The Skinny: The Golden Hurricane improved its win total by four in coach Philip Montgomery's first season. Tulsa averaged better than 37 points per game in 2015, 21st in the country. Quarterback Dane Evans is back for his senior season after he threw for more than 4,300 yards and 25 scores last year, but the Hurricane loses second-leading rusher Zack Langer (777 yards, team-leading 18 touchdowns) in addition to leading receiver Keyarris Garrett (1,588 yards, eight touchdowns) to graduation.
Tulsa finished second-to-last in the American Athletic Conference and 121st in the country in scoring defense in 2015, allowing 39.8 points per game. The 536.6 yards per game it allowed last season only bested Texas Tech and Kansas nationally.
Week Three
Opponent: Oklahoma – 2015 record: 11-2, Big 12 Champions, lost 37-17 to Clemson in Orange Bowl (College Football Playoff Semifinal). Final Sagarin Ranking: 4
Location: Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman, Oklahoma
Date: Sept. 17
The Skinny: Oklahoma shoved off a bad loss to Texas in the middle of the season to rise in the College Football Playoff rankings to No. 4 by season's end after winning the Big 12, in a similar way to how Ohio State did in 2014. However, the Sooners did not experience similar success in the Playoff the Buckeyes did on their way to a national title.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield finished fourth in the 2015 Heisman Trophy voting as a junior, and will be back with a ton of offensive talent in 2016 from a team that was outclassed by Clemson in the Orange Bowl. Questions surrounded the Sooners before 2015 after a subpar 8-5 season in 2014, but Mayfield made them contenders. He will again next season, and heads what will be a huge non-conference test for a young Ohio State team on the road.
Week Four
Opponent: Open
Date: Sept. 24
Week Five
Opponent: Rutgers – 2015 record: 4-8. Final Sagarin Ranking: 98
Location: Ohio Stadium
Date: Oct. 1
The Skinny: Urban Meyer lost his second key coordinator in as many seasons when co-defensive coordinator and safeties coach Chris Ash left Ohio State for Rutgers after the Fiesta Bowl. Ash accepted the position a few weeks prior, but stayed on staff in Columbus until the end of the 2015 season. He replaces the embattled Kyle Flood, who along with former athletic director Julie Hermann left quite a mess for Ash's new regime.
On the field, the Scarlet Knights were woeful, save for a wild 55-52 win at Indiana that served as their lone Big Ten victory. Rutgers won only four games in its first two seasons as a Big Ten member, but welcomes back its leading passer and rusher from 2015. Star wide receive Leonte Carroo is gone, but he's not the biggest issue in Piscataway for Ash. Rutgers finished in the bottom third of the Big Ten in most defensive statistical categories last year.
Week Six
Opponent: Indiana – 2015 record: 6-7, lost 44-41 to Duke in Pinstripe Bowl. Final Sagarin Ranking: 69
Location: Ohio Stadium
Date: Oct. 8
The Skinny: The Hoosiers rewarded coach Kevin Wilson with a new six-year, $15 million contract after he led them to their first bowl appearance since 2007 and second in 22 years. He is a modest 20-41 in Bloomington, but it is clear the directive of the Indiana administration: Football hasn't been this good there in a while, and they want to keep it that way.
Wilson's teams have always been able to score—the Hoosiers scored at least 45 points four times in 2015—but the other side of the ball is an entirely different story. In 2015, Indiana was statistically the worst in the Big Ten in scoring, passing, rushing and total defense. That's not good. However, Indiana did come within one Zander Diamont incompletion as time expired to pushing Ohio State to overtime in October. It looks to be Diamont's show in 2016.
Week Seven
Opponent: Wisconsin – 2015 record: 10-3, beat USC 23-21 in Holiday Bowl. Final Sagarin Ranking: 19
Location: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wisconsin
Date: Oct. 15
The Skinny: The Badgers weren't far off from being the West Division representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, losing to Iowa 10-6 and Northwestern 13-7. However, both of those losses came at Camp Randall, where they entertain the Buckeyes this fall.
Wisconsin led the conference in scoring, rushing and total defense in 2015 under first-year head coach Paul Chryst, but finished 10th in the Big Ten in rushing offense—an oddity for a program that produced past greats like Melvin Gordon, James White and Montee Ball. Much of that had to do with injuries to running back Corey Clement, who missed nine games. He returns for his senior season, but the Badgers must have their quarterback situation figured out after the graduation of Joel Stave before they host the Buckeyes in what is most likely to be a night game.
Week Eight
Opponent: Penn State – 2015 record: 7-6, lost 24-17 to Georgia in Taxslayer Bowl. Final Sagarin Ranking: 51
Location: Beaver Stadium, State College, Pennsylvania
Date: Oct. 22
The Skinny: The 2016 season is crucial for Penn State head coach James Franklin. He is just 14-12 in his first two seasons in State College, and now has full reins on the program in his third year after the lift of program sanctions. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg couldn't declare for the NFL Draft quick enough and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Carl Nassib is gone from the 2015 team. So is defensive tackle Anthony Zettel, leaving Franklin with work to do.
Hackenberg's offensive line was atrocious the past two seasons, so Franklin must start there. Still, the Nittany Lions took Ohio State to double overtime the last time they played in Beaver Stadium, before Joey Bosa's walk-off sack ended it. This game is all but assured to the second night game in as many weeks for the Buckeyes, and State College is never easy to navigate under the lights.
Week Nine
Opponent: Northwestern – 2015 record: 10-3, lost 45-6 to Tennessee in Outback Bowl. Final Sagarin Ranking: 44
Location: Ohio Stadium
Date: Oct. 29
The Skinny: Northwestern had a strong 2015 campaign, complete with strong wins over Stanford, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The Wildcats faltered against their toughest Big Ten competition, however, wilting at the hands of Michigan and Iowa by a combined score of 78-10. An ugly bowl loss didn't help momentum heading into 2016, either.
But Pat Fitzgerald found something in freshman quarterback Clayton Thorson, who played in every game. Leading rusher Justin Jackson is also back and Northwestern finished in the top half of scoring, passing, rushing and total defense in 2015. It will be the first time the Wildcats will have visited Columbus since 2007.
Week Ten
Opponent: Nebraska – 2015 record: 6-7, beat UCLA 37-29 in Foster Farms Bowl. Final Sagarin Ranking: 42
Location: Ohio Stadium
Date: Nov. 5
The Skinny: Nebraska had the rare opportunity to play in a bowl game despite finishing its regular season under-.500, and made good on the trip by beating UCLA the day after Christmas. Still, coach Mike Riley's first season was a disappointment, if you consider how Bo Pelini lost his job for winning at least nine games in each of his seven seasons.
The Cornhuskers have capable athletes at the key skill positions, starting with quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. He, however, struggled at times with decision-making and made some poor throws that led to turnovers last season. The Huskers also gave up nearly 300 yards a game through the air, 13th in the conference.
Week Eleven
Opponent: Maryland – 2015 record: 3-9. Final Sagarin Ranking: 85
Location: Maryland Stadium, University Park, Maryland
Date: Nov. 12
The Skinny: The Terrapins, much like Rutgers, have struggled in their first two seasons as a Big Ten member. Maryland only won five conference games its first two years, and fired Randy Edsall after losing to Ohio State, 49-28, in Columbus.
Enter former Michigan defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, the man tasked as the answer in land of turtle. His first task is at quarterback, which was a revolving door in 2015 between Perry Hills, Caleb Rowe and Daxx Garman. The latter graduated, and Hills kept the Terrapins in the game against Ohio State with 170 rushing yards and two touchdowns, but it was evident the talent disparity between them and the rest of the conference. The lone time the Buckeyes played in University Park, they won, 52-24 in 2014.
Week Twelve
Opponent: Michigan State – 2015 record: 12-2, Big Ten Champions, lost 38-0 to Alabama in Cotton Bowl (College Football Playoff Semifinal). Final Sagarin Ranking: 17.
Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
Date: Nov. 19
The Skinny: Just like Ohio State, the Spartans lose a ton of talent from their 2015 squad. Three-year starting quarterback Connor Cook is gone, along with Big Ten Wide Receiver of the Year Aaron Burbridge and second-leading receiver Macgarrett Kings Jr. Star defensive end Shilique Calhoun also graduated. The exodus of talent from a team that got ran off the field by Alabama in Dallas in the Playoff is palpable.
However, Mark Dantonio has built his program up and deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Ohio State in the Big Ten East. Now, it is on him to reload like Urban Meyer does in Columbus and make another run at the division. Plus, half of Meyer's losses at Ohio State have been to Michigan State. The showdown in East Lansing will figure largely into the Big Ten scope in 2016.
Week Thirteen
Opponent: Michigan – 2015 record: 10-3, beat Florida 41-7 in Citrus Bowl. Final Sagarin Ranking: 9
Location: Ohio Stadium
Date: Nov. 26
The Skinny: Jim Harbaugh's first season in Ann Arbor began with excitement and ended in triumph with a resounding victory against Florida in the Citrus Bowl. However, a 42-13 home loss to Ohio State and wild defeat to Michigan State in Michigan Stadium ended the Wolverines' chances at making it to the Big Ten Championship Game. Michigan brimmed with confidence before its matchup with Ohio State, but Meyer and the Buckeyes shoved their rivals away relatively easily with a monster rushing attack.
Although Harbaugh's recruiting antics are bizarre, he is a winner and doubled the school's victory total from a year ago with largely the same roster. He must replace quarterback Jake Rudock, as well as a solid contingent of contributors on his defense's front seven. The Wolverines are expected to be very good in 2016, so the regular season finale could decide who from the East Division is heading to Indianapolis and the Big Ten Championship.
Though Ohio State saw a vast array of talent leave the program after 2015, Urban Meyer is well on his way to securing another top-ranked recruiting class in February. Having J.T. Barrett back taking snaps from Pat Elflein will help immensely with all the youth in the program, but there will be some growing pains next season.
Depending on how the youth evolves at key spots on offense and if the defense can round into form under Luke Fickell and new co-coordinator Greg Schiano, the Buckeyes are likely to be in position again to make a run at a Big Ten Championship.
