Financial consultants cover their rear ends in print by including the phrase, “past results are not a guarantee of future performance." This is also true in football.
However, much like financial history can give us clues about how a stock might do in the future, so too can a look back at football history teach us about what might happen next.
Case in point: Urban Meyer’s record in games following a week off.
As we approach Saturday’s classic Big Ten match-up between Ohio State and Rutgers, it’s worthwhile taking a look at the past performance of Meyers various teams. The numbers are eye-popping.
Meyer is 18-1 as a head coach in games following a bye week. That single loss came in his first season as an NCAA head coach, in a 24-21 home loss against Miami (OH). The future hall-of-fame coach has won his last 17 consecutive games following an idle week.
A look beyond simple wins and (lack of) losses is even more interesting. Meyer’s teams tend to perform better against the mean when returning from a week off, as compared to the rest of the season.
At Bowling Green, Utah, Florida and Ohio State, Meyer-led teams have surpassed their scoring average 11 times and hit it on another occasion. This includes the 50 points scored a few weeks ago against Cincinnati. So only seven of those 19 games saw his teams score below their average number of points scored for the season.
In 2002 and 2003, Meyer’s teams scored their highest points totals of the season in games following an off week. His 2002 Bowling Green Falcons hung 72 points on Ohio—his highest scoring total as head coach of the Falcons. The following season, Meyer’s Utah Utes hung 47 points on Wyoming.
Defensively, it hasn’t been much different. Meyer’s teams have held their opponents below the season average in 11 of those 18 games. In 2005, Urban’s Gators allowed 18.8 points per game, but Florida held Georgia to 10 and Florida State to just seven points. The rival Bulldogs were losers three times against Meyer’s Gators after Florida bye weeks.
In 2008, Florida held Tennessee to six points and Kentucky to five in a pair of blowout wins after bye weeks. The following season, Meyer led his team into Death Valley and held LSU to three points in a 13-3 victory.
At Ohio State, Meyer is 4-0 after an idle week, beating Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Cincinnati. But in three of those four games, the Buckeyes have allowed more than the season scoring average on defense. The team has scored above its season average twice and fewer points than usual twice. In two of those games—2012 at Wisconsin and 2013 vs. Iowa—the Buckeyes have looked a bit sluggish.
Ohio State was anything but sluggish against the Bearcats on Sept. 27, although the defense gave up several big plays. Tom Herman’s offense literally had to stop itself in order to keep from scoring, and only the liberal use of backup players and abandoning the passing game prevented the Buckeyes from posting 60 or 70 points.
So what does all of this mean for Saturday’s game against the Scarlet Knights? Not a lot, probably. Past results, again, are not a guarantee of future performance. But over the long haul, Meyer has shown an uncanny ability to get his team ready to beat the opposition when he’s had an extra week to prepare.
And yes, I hear you, law of averages, and you can shut right up and go away.
