Ohio State Has Top Home Field Advantage, Says Phil Steele

By DJ Byrnes on August 25, 2014 at 10:10a
66 Comments

Phil Steele is a one-man college football prediction cottage industry, so when he speaks, people tend to listen.

Faced with a deluge of emails asking how he ranks something as arbitrary as "home field advantage," Steele says he used 27 different factors in this year's rankings, there are nine factors he takes into account every year:

  • Stadium capacity.
  • Actual attendance reported by the school.
  • Percentage of capacity.
  • Previous year's win:loss record at home.
  • Last three years' win:loss record at home.
  • Last five years' win:loss record at home.
  • Previous year's win:loss record at home against the spread.
  • Previous three years' win:loss record at home against the spread.
  • Previous five years' win:loss record at home against the spread.

Steele explains what happens next:

I then factor in the 9 categories from the 2012 and 2011 seasons, which gives me 27 categories for the computer to factor in and I have them appropriately weighted. I then look at the computer’s grade, which had Alabama #1 with a 5.56 home edge, South Carolina #2 at 5.49 and Baylor #3 at 5.49. At the bottom the computer has Idaho #128 at 2.00, Georgia St #127 at 2.01 and Eastern Michigan #126 at 2.06.

The final category is my own personal grade. I have 12 TV’s in front of me and watch 12 games all day long on Saturday and watch every nighttime game on ESPN. I can hear the crowd noise at each stadium and I weigh in how many times I thought it was a factor in a game. I look at how good the team has been the last 5 years and what percentage of games they win at home and on the road in my personal evaluation.

Twelve TVs showing 12 games all day long? PHIL STEELE IS TRULY OMNIPOTENT.

Anyway, here's the top 15 schools in his rankings. No surprise Ohio Stadium gives the Buckeyes quite the boost.

SCHOOL Home field advantage
Ohio State 5.5
Wisconsin 5.5
South Carolina 5.5
Oregon 5.5
LSU 5.5
Alabama 5.5
Oklahoma 5.5
Boise State 5.5
Oklahoma State 5.25
Baylor 5.25
Stanford 5.25
Georgia 5.25
Virginia Tech 5.25
Michigan 5
Florida State 5

 As you can see, simply playing at home is almost akin to a free touchdown for Ohio State. And since the Buckeyes will be breaking in a redshirt freshman at quarterback, Ohio State will need every point they can muster, through arcane methods or otherwise.

Source: PhilSteele.com

66 Comments

Comments

11UrbzAndSpices's picture

I heard the band is worth 3 points on the road, 7 at home

Does anyone know if BucksFan changed his icon?

+20 HS
OSUStu's picture

Eight teams tied for first?  Steele might have to add another factor to get this all straightened out.  "Band Awesomeness" factor sounds like a good one.

If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them.  ~ Bruce Lee

+7 HS
therealdeal's picture

....or how bout factoring in entering Frosh class A.C.T. ave. scores...28.8 looks pretty damn good!

+3 HS
allinosu's picture

Speaking of the band, is there any concern the band may pull something because of the fired director.

FunZone's picture

While they're in uniform on Gameday? No chance.

I asked Braxton how his knee was before halftime at Berkeley and he said, "What up, man."

+9 HS
Oyster's picture

Script Waters will happen.  You heard it here first.

May you R.I.P. Otsego, but know this. Gaylord Rocks!

+8 HS
ChicagoBuckMD's picture

If not you can always make one of these and say it happened

http://www.buckeyesportsstuff.com/ohio-state-marching-band-custom-script...

"Why be around average?" - UFM

NuttyBuckeye's picture

Speaking of the band, I have heard a few rumors they may not play this year, and if they do, they will not travel to any away games.  Any truth to that?  I am thinking this is just "talk" from people and Buckeye haters.

Marc Pocock (a.k.a NuttyBuckeye)

What's round on the ends and high in the middle? Tell me if you know!

FunZone's picture

They'll be at Navy and I believe Michigan State.

I asked Braxton how his knee was before halftime at Berkeley and he said, "What up, man."

+3 HS
buckifishr's picture

Another metric which confrims that Illinois and Purdue suck

USArmyBuckeye's picture

I feel like Phil might have ADHD

+6 HS
tOSUperiour's picture

And I love him for it.

We don't give a Da*n for the whole state of *ichigan cause we're from OHIO!

+3 HS
ThomasLusk's picture

No Penn State?

I wish I could go back not to change things but to do it all over again!

+1 HS
11UrbzAndSpices's picture

PSU scored a 5

Does anyone know if BucksFan changed his icon?

+1 HS
tussey's picture

I thought the same thing.  I think that number will slowly rise in the next few years.  I know I hate when we have to play there at night.  

What Would Troy Smith Do's picture

12 TV's??  Watch all day?? Phil must not be married.  No way I'd get away with that.

+3 HS
DJ Byrnes's picture

I bet you could get away with it if college football paid your bills.

Californian by birth, Marionaire by the Grace of President Warren G. Harding.

Geraffi's picture

How can I make this happen?

+6 HS
What Would Troy Smith Do's picture

Absolutely true, but I'd better be making as much if not more than I am now.  If I made Bill Simmons type money I could do whatever I want.

+1 HS
Jabba the Hoke's picture

I just want Craig James type money, he can buy his way out of anything.

+3 HS
otrain2416's picture

TSUN got such a high ranking due to the amount of consistent homer calls they get, not their student attendance.

+5 HS
Geraffi's picture

and fireworks, of course.

+4 HS
ShowThemOhiosHere's picture

Don't forget the donuts!

Class of 2010.

+5 HS
bukyze's picture

TSUN scored a 5?  The quietest 100,000 in the world?  Attendance problems the last few years?   Phil probably just forgot to put in the decimal.  0.5 sounds about right.

+4 HS
Jabba the Hoke's picture

To be fair, Hoke has a great home record which will really skew the numbers. Hoke is terrible on the road however.

OSUHook's picture

Phil Steele making Excel his bitch again!

+3 HS
11UrbzAndSpices's picture
bitch again?

Does anyone know if BucksFan changed his icon?

+14 HS
buckeyedude's picture

I have this shirt. Got it a couple years ago from a guy on Lane.

 

 

+1 HS
IGotAWoody's picture

Was it orange? I had to rub my eyes and look again, and it was STILL orange.

 - License to kill gophers (wolverines, badgers, etc) by the government of the United Nations

+2 HS
buckeyedude's picture

No. It's very red, even if not scarlet. It's just the bad lighting makes it look orange.

 

 

IGotAWoody's picture

The shirts behind it look even MORE orange.

 - License to kill gophers (wolverines, badgers, etc) by the government of the United Nations

Chaseko24's picture

That's my dream Saturday. Watch all the games. 

+1 HS
MauricXe's picture

not a bad list....but scUM is rated too high.

+5 HS
buckeyedude's picture

I would think Happy Valley is louder than the Big Shit Howse.

 

 

+2 HS
buckeyedude's picture

I would think Happy Valley is louder than the Big Shit Howse.

 

 

IGotAWoody's picture

You can say THAT again!

 - License to kill gophers (wolverines, badgers, etc) by the government of the United Nations

+5 HS
whiskeyjuice's picture

I would think Happy Valley is louder that the Big Shit Howse

"Championships are not won on Saturdays in November. Championships are won on Tuesdays in August." -- Kerry Combs

-1 HS
causeicouldntgo43's picture

Excuse me while I go look for the best deal I can find on 11 more TV's......

+2 HS
TUNBUCK89's picture

Watching 12 games at the same time means, for me, I have watched NONE !!!

+4 HS
BigZ's picture

Every football season we take advantage of stores with 90 day no questions asked return policies. We buy 2 or 3 big screens at the start of the season, return at the end, and usually upgrade the next season. Makes for a kickass man cave for the season!

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

+1 HS
Sicily of the 614's picture

Well played sir!

Nobody panic

-1 HS
cal3713's picture

Yeah, I like to go to my neighbors houses and steal all their beer... Saturdays are so much more fun that way.

+1 HS
Kurt's picture

Phil thinks he's got all the bases covered, but what about schools with fan bases that travel and have a strong presence at road games?!  

+1 HS
TUNBUCK89's picture

I think this is covered by the 3rd factor on the list.

GVerrilli92's picture

Which, by the way, indicates that Auburn kicks ass at traveling.

They weren't even in the top 10 in home attendance last year (12th), but were first in overall attendance. There has gotta be something skewing that stat. How would they be offered enough tickets as away fans to make up that gap? Because Ohio State kicked major ass in traveling last year.

Also my source is this nifty little pdf: http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/Attendance/2013.pdf

How many cheeseburgers are you gunna drive into that dirty old cheeseburger locker Brady Hoke?

Kurt's picture

Auburn only beat us out by less than 13,000 (if my math is correct)...so the difference was mediocre attendance to the Orange Bowl vs sold out Rose Bowl for the title game.

Jordan-Hare seats 85 or 86k as I recall, so that's probably just small enough to take them out of the top-10 for home games.

GVerrilli92's picture

Well a lot more variables go into it than that, because it includes the attendance of every game they were involved in - counting both side's fans. So while they played in front of 20k less than us at home, to break even they had to play in front of huge away crowds, which they did. The smallest crowds they played in front of all year last year were 72k and 87k respectively. 

That is stupid.

How many cheeseburgers are you gunna drive into that dirty old cheeseburger locker Brady Hoke?

jamesrbrown322's picture

"Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts." - Winston Churchill

+1 HS
GVerrilli92's picture

Average decibel rating would also be a great additional metric, but you would need the technology in every stadium.

Over the last 5 years, the most game-impacting home crowds would have to be at tOSU, Autzen, Bama, and LSU, in my opinion. 

Food for thought: The SEC has the highest average attendance at 75,674. The B1G is right there at 70,431. The drop off after that is huge, with the Big 12 at 58,899; PAC 12 at 53,619; and the ACC at 49,982. 

The fact that FSU doesn't get more flak for the weakness of their ACC road schedule still blows my mind. To have an average of less than 50k with stadiums like Lane, Memorial, and The Doak? That's embarrassing. 

If PSU, Nebraska and *ichigan returned to relevance, and Wisky, Sparty and the Bucks kept their programs the B1G country would be a very dangerous one to enter. Those are all really hard places to go in and get a win.

How many cheeseburgers are you gunna drive into that dirty old cheeseburger locker Brady Hoke?

+3 HS
Vinsaniti's picture

I think I need to quit my job get 20 TV's and start watching sports for a living. Sounds like an easy life!

ShowThemOhiosHere's picture

12 TVs?  Holy shit!  I could utilize my TV, iPad, my laptop, my wife's laptop, my old laptop (if I ever get around to fixing the fan), my work laptop (which I never use and is old, uses Windows XP fergodsakes), and have 6 TVs in my living room.  If I feel like lugging the upstairs and basement TVs into my living room, then I'd have 8.  Now only if...

I better stop now, my wife would kill me.

Class of 2010.

+1 HS
Evannati's picture

You know, I can't forget that the two biggest nationally televised games at the stadium in the past ten years, for me, were Texas and USC and we lost them both, despite the insanity of those crowds.  Granted, we got payback at Texas the next year, but it would have been nice to have taken care of USC at home after they destroyed us out there. 

BrutusBuckey3's picture

Stoppppp you're killing me

+1 HS
TURD_BUCKET's picture

“Being average means you are as close to the bottom as you are to the top.” John Wooden

+7 HS
BrutusBuckey3's picture

Once again, there is no place like the Shoe. 

ibuck's picture

I can hear the crowd noise at each stadium and I weigh in how many times I thought it was a factor in a game.

OK, Buckeye fans, get your hoot and holler on. "Show them Ohio's here."

Our honor defend, we will fight to the end !

If you can't win your conference, just quietly accept your non-playoff bowl game.

+1 HS
whiskeyjuice's picture

Go Bucks!

"Championships are not won on Saturdays in November. Championships are won on Tuesdays in August." -- Kerry Combs

+1 HS
Habu71's picture

Of the places I've visited.

1) The Shoe - None Better

2) LSU - Close 2nd

3) Texas - Impressive 

4) Tennessee - Crazy

5) WVU - (Night Game) Underrated

Special Mention - The Washington Huskies have a phenomenal setting, with a breathtaking view from the stadium. The fans are warm, and great sports. What they lack in gameday excitement, they make up for with an overall enjoyment of the people and atmosphere.

Not great, not bad - Sparty, Illinois and Cal. 

The Worst - Tie between Kansas & *ichigan

+1 HS
swainpm's picture

Not a bad list, who was UT playing when you went? I have only been to the Shoe, BC, and Texas. Texas packs the fans in but they all act like they are at a funeral. I was privy to games against OklSt, KSU, ISU and Rice. Non students will sit practically the entire game and the stadium isn't built up like the Shoe (rather UT is built out and at a gradual grade). As a result noise escapes. I've heard AtM is 2x as loud if not more.

My impression is that Beaver Stadium, Clemson, LSU, Florida, FSU, AtM, Tenn. and Ole Miss are the environments I would like to attend the most. And Ole Miss is solely based off the tailgate/ parade of females.

+1 HS
Habu71's picture

Saw them play Kansas a few years ago. I was impressed by the atmosphere and how they support their team, lots of tradition. I like your list, although PSU has great tradition and atmosphere I have no desire to go there. 

FunZone's picture

As a Longhorn I preferred games at Kyle Field than DKR. Night games at the shoe are tough to beat but A&M has the best student section easy

I asked Braxton how his knee was before halftime at Berkeley and he said, "What up, man."

causeicouldntgo43's picture

My wife and I were at the most recent game at the Shoe when the Huskies came to town a few years ago. I remember a couple from Washington that stood next to us as the band marched into the stadium from St. Johns. Right when the band approached the North end under the archway and had the drums pounding and the O..........H..........I..........O chants going full steam before they entered the stadium, the couple from Washington turned and looked at us all wide-eyed and said "wow!!! - you sure do take your football seriously here!", and I smiled back and said "you're damn right we do!" We won the game, of course.

+1 HS
Habu71's picture

I've had 3 separate encounters with Washington fans, once in Seattle. Regardless of the location they have just been great people and great sports. 

+1 HS
NateB's picture

From my experience:

1. The Shoe

2.  Autzen

3.  Lincoln Memorial

4.  Darrell K Royal

5.  Husky Stadium

+1 HS