There will be no more living in a world of what-ifs. We can deal a bit more with reality as opposed to hypotheticals when it comes to Ohio State after Tuesday night as the Buckeyes host No. 6 Michigan State at 9 p.m. at Value City Arena.
| WHO | WHERE | WHEN | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State (22-5, 9-5) | Value City Arena | 9 p.m. | ESPN |
It's the start of a critical three-game stretch for Ohio State, one which features a pair of games against the Spartans with eighth-ranked Iowa sandwiched in between. And for a team like the Buckeyes in desperate need of some quality wins, Tuesday's matchup with Michigan State comes at the perfect time.
“From what I’ve seen I think they’re as good as any of [the top teams in the Big Ten], without a doubt," Ohio State coach Thad Matta said Monday. "I’ll have a better feel up close and personal [Tuesday] night, but I think that they’ve got great pieces."
Tuesday will just be the latest chapter in what's been an incredibly close series since Matta arrived in Columbus. The Buckeyes are 11-12 against Michigan State under Matta and the 23 games have been decided by a total of eight points.
Ohio State hopes to even that series Tuesday and add its best win of the season to its resume.
Opponent Breakdown
Matta did not mince his words when speaking about Michigan State and star guard Denzel Valentine on Monday.
"I've always liked his game," Matta said. "Watching Valentine play, he kind of reminded me of an Evan Turner because when he got there he didn’t do anything particularly great, but he was sort of good all the way across. It’s funny because I think he’s really taken to Coach [Tom] Izzo’s coaching because those two seem like they were into it a lot early in his career and it has definitely paid off."
"... He’s kind of like a D’Angelo Russell in terms of points, assists, rebounds. He does everything.”
Matta comparing Valentine to two of the best players he has ever coached shouldn't be taken lightly. The senior guard has been that good this season for the Spartans.
Valentine is averaging a league-leading 19.7 points per game, while also contributing 7.7 rebounds (seventh in the Big Ten) and 7.3 assists (best in the Big Ten) per game. He's a legitimate candidate for both Big Ten and National Player of the Year.
But Valentine doesn't do it alone, either. He has plenty of help from his supporting cast including Bryn Forbes (14.1 points per game, 48.2 percent from 3); Matt Costello (10.1 points, 8.1 rebounds per game); Eron Harris (9.3 ppg., 41.3 percent from 3); Deyonta Davis (7.6 ppg., 5.7 rpg., 2.0 bpg.) and more. This is as complete a team as there is in college basketball.
The Spartans rank third nationally in 3-point field-goal percentage, shooting a ridiculous 42.4 percent from deep as a team. Michigan State, per usual, is among the nation's top rebounding teams, too, averaging 42.2 boards per game which ranks fourth in the country.
The Spartans come to Columbus riding high as winners of six out of seven. Michigan State's only loss during that stretch came two weeks ago, at Purdue, in overtime by one point. In fact, three of the Spartans' five losses in the Big Ten have come by just one.
This is a very difficult matchup for Ohio State.
"Michigan State, just looking at them and now they’re healthy, is as good as anybody in the country," Matta said. "There’s no doubt about that."
Buckeye Breakdown
Ohio State enters Tuesday's matchup with the Spartans having won four-straight games — the longest active streak of any team in the Big Ten. But, despite being winners of four in a row, the Buckeyes have been anything but consistent.
Just this past week Ohio State played one of its more complete games of the year in a 10-point win over Michigan. But the Buckeyes followed that one up with a pretty poor performance on the road in an overtime victory against Nebraska, which was playing without its best player.
In that win over the Huskers, just four players scored for Ohio State: JaQuan Lyle had 19 points, Keita Bates-Diop scored 16, while Jae'Sean Tate and Marc Loving added 15 each. It's the balance Matta certainly strives for at the top, but there obviously needs to be some contributions from the other guys in the rotation, too.
Despite the inconsistent play, though, the Buckeyes avoided bad losses here recently and, because of that, have put themselves in a position to sneak into consideration for an NCAA tournament bid. It's widely expected Ohio State needs to win two of its final three games of the regular-season to get onto the bubble.
A victory over Michigan State would certainly look great on the Buckeyes' resume.
“They’re a top-10 team," Loving said of the Spartans. "It's just being able to compete with a team of their caliber, just having the confidence that we’re able to compete with guys like that. I don’t know, you’ve got to have the right mindset from the beginning to be able to even be competitive in a situation like that.”
How It Plays Out
It's not likely Ohio State goes to East Lansing next weekend and knocks off Michigan State so if the Buckeyes are going to get a win over the Spartans this season it almost has to come Tuesday night at Value City Arena.
Michigan State is the better team — it is a six-point favorite over Ohio State — and will have the best player on the floor so it certainly won't be easy. But the Buckeyes have shown since Big Ten play began they're a much better team when playing at home — especially offensively — and their last time out in Columbus was one of Ohio State's best all-around performances of the season.
Still, I don't think the Buckeyes have quite enough to pull off the upset Tuesday night. Most teams struggle a bit on the road, but Michigan State with Valentine, Izzo and Co. have all the experience necessary to play just as well in another team's building as they do Breslin Center.
This game is close throughout, but Valentine makes a few big plays in winning time to help lift the Spartans to a tough road win.
Tim's prediction: Michigan State 72, Ohio State 67
