Breaking Down the Big Ten Tournament: Do the Buckeyes Have a Shot?

By Tim Shoemaker on March 11, 2015 at 10:10 am
The Michael Jordan statue outside of Chicago's United Center.
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Wisconsin proved it was the Big Ten's best team over a three-month period known as the conference season, but now, it's all about a one-and-done mindset. Win and you move on. Lose, you go home.

For the first time ever, the Big Ten tournament will feature a 14-team format with play beginning Wednesday for the first time. Kicking things off at 4:30 p.m. will be a matchup featuring 12th-seeded Nebraska and No. 13 seed Penn State. Following that game will be 11th-seeded Minnesota taking on No. 14 seed Rutgers.

The Badgers are the heavy favorite entering the tournament and won't play their first game until Friday. But with two teams — Indiana and Illinois — fighting for their NCAA tournament lives and other teams trying to improve their final resumes there are plenty of storylines in Chicago this weekend.

CAN WISCONSIN CONTINUE ITS DOMINANCE?

The Badgers were the unanimous preseason favorite to win the Big Ten this season and they certainly lived up to that billing as they tore through the conference season finishing with a 16-2 record, two full games ahead of second-place Maryland.

Led by Big Ten Player of the Year in Frank Kaminsky and second-team All-Big Ten performer Sam Dekker, Wisconsin completely earned its No. 1 seed this weekend in Chicago. The Badgers even have a shot at finding themselves on the one-line on Selection Sunday if they can run through the Big Ten Tournament the way they did its regular season.

Wisconsin's draw is relatively favorable. The Badgers should cruise into the semifinals where they'll likely matchup with either Iowa or Purdue. Wisconsin handily beat the Hawkeyes in both of their matchups this season and won a close game against the Boilermakers. Purdue probably matches up with the Badgers better than any other team in the Big Ten, though.

If I had to pick a team to upset Wisconsin in this tournament it would be the Boilermakers, but I still think the Badgers are far and away the favorites to take home the tournament title. It would take a severely off night by them and a great night by their opponent to knock them off.

OHIO STATE HAS A FAVORABLE DRAW

Eleven Warriors is an Ohio State site, after all, so let's dive into the Buckeyes' draw in this thing a little bit more.

Being that it is the No. 6 seed, things couldn't have mapped out much better for Ohio State as far as a potential run is concerned. The Buckeyes were placed in the bottom half of the bracket and thus avoided Wisconsin, Iowa and Purdue — teams that beat them a combined four times this year.

In fact, Ohio State went 5-2 this year versus teams in its half of the draw. Against teams in the other half? Just 6-5.

The Buckeyes meet the winner of Wednesday's game between Minnesota and Rutgers and should easily get past either one of those teams setting up a date with Michigan State. The Spartans defeated the Buckeyes back on Feb. 14 thanks to a dagger 3-pointer by Denzel Valentine.

If Ohio State can get its revenge on Michigan State it would likely matchup with Maryland in the semifinals. The Buckeyes clobbered the Terrapins in their only meeting this season, 80-56.

So, if you feel like being optimistic, Ohio State's draw isn't overly difficult. But this team's problem all season has been consistency and it seems like a real struggle for it to put together three solid games in a row and put it in a place to play for a Big Ten tournament title. Yet, Thad Matta has reached Sunday in this event in seven of his 10 years as head coach of the Buckeyes so I wouldn't put anything past him.

OTHER DARKHORSE TEAMS

It's never fun to pick the favorite to win things, but Wisconsin is head and shoulders above every team in the Big Ten right now, making it hard to pick against the champs.

But for the sake of being different, I think Purdue has a legitimate shot at upsetting the Badgers and earning a Big Ten tournament title. It won't be easy, for sure, as the Boilermakers would have to go through a potential road of Iowa, Wisconsin and either Maryland, Michigan State or Ohio State in the title game.

Purdue is one of the better defensive teams in the league and its defense can keep it in just about every game. It's whether the Boilermakers can score enough points that has been their biggest issue.

I also believe Indiana can make a run as a team seeded outside of the Top 6 because of its ability to shoot the ball from behind the 3-point line. If the Hoosiers get hot from the outside, they can make a run. But that also means I'm putting faith in Tom Crean, which hasn't proven to be very wise so far this year.

It should be a fun week in Chicago, per usual.

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