Speaking only from my personal experiences playing the game many years I have dreaded the times I had one of the top two picks. A large percentage of the time that first round pick doesnt live up to your expectations and your lower picks carries you. For example 3 yrs ago it was F Jackson 6th rd (his break out year) Cam Newton (12th rd Rookie) and CJ Spiller (16th rd valuable) backup that carried my team. For my FFL teams it has always been the picks that doesnt make it on any of the so called experts charts. Today of course they do but its always in hindsight reporting the obvious first.
I believe recruiting is the same thing. One of the recruits that is a lower Star will come in bust his butt and surpass many higher rated recruits. Which of these 3 star 2013 recruits will that be the most likely to (Sprinkle, Lee, Gardner, and Worley) this year?