I'm not sure how to embed the Google Doc, but here's the link to the document I've created to analyze OSU vs. UM Recruiting over the last 2 recruiting cycles:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ar-cr5O-nW0xdDJ6Z25pOF8yU2x...
A couple of salient points:
1. The numbers are taken directly from the 24/7 composite ranking.
2. The numbers in red are the best at a given position OR the best overall average at a position. If one team has multiple players with a higher rating than the other team then all those players' numbers are in red.
3. I have NOT included the Long-Snapper that UM recruited this year OR the two players who have left OSU from the 2012 class (Ricquan Southward & Joey O'Connor).
Overall Impressions:
1. Offense: OSU has a small (0.3 points) advantage w/r/t average rating among offensive players. However, this covers up a huge discrepancy in talent at certain positions. UM has absolutely destroyed OSU on the offensive line (10 players at an average of 93.112 vs. 6 players at an average of 89.445) while OSU has pulled in far more talented running backs and playmakers (Wilson, Marshall, Baugh, Elliott, Dunn), with Derrick Green being the lone exception.
2. Defense: OSU has a meaningful (1.52 points) advantage w/r/t average ranking among defensive players. This advantage is spread out across all positions as OSU has 7 defensive recruits (Spence, Bosa, Washington, Mitchell, Bell, Apple, Burrows) with a higher rating than UM's top-rated defensive recruit (Ondre Pipkins - 97.07). Surprisingly, UM has a higher average rating at Linebacker and has clearly amassed some talented LBs over the past 2 cycles. However, OSU has a decisive advantage at DE, with THREE DEs (Spence, Bosa, Pittman) more highly rated than UM's best two (Wormley, Charlton) AND at Corner, where OSU has Apple and Burrows far outpacing UM's top player.
3. Both teams have significant holes to fill in their next classes. OSU has a GLARING weakness along the Offensive Line, made all the worse in comparison to UM's riches. UM has a complete lack of playmakers not named Derrick Green and, in particular, a lack of fast/quick/athletic guys who can make someone miss - UM is also missing elite defensive ends and they will likely struggle to get to the QB without an injection of talent there. Neither team has an elite WR (depending on how you classify OSU's Marshall & Wilson, I classify them as Hybrid All-Purpose guys).
4. Based on this breakdown, I would argue that UM's roster suggests a Stanford/Wisconsin-type offense moving forward - big, dominating OL/TE with a stable of big, mean RBs churning out yards and a QB who use the play-action to go deep and keep the defense honest. OSU's offense suggests what we've seen from Chip Kelly at Oregon - Dual-threat QB with multiple fast edge weapons added to a uniquely-OSU style bruising straight-ahead running game offset by multiple recieving threats spaced out across the field. Defensively, UM will have a solid interior line but struggle to get to the QB, have solid, sure-tackling LBs and a talented secondary. OSU, on the other hand, looks to be creating a monster on the defensive side of the ball with elite edge rushers, a hard-hitting, ball-hawking secondary and a bunch of LBs to fill in the gaps.
http://www.elevenwarriors.com/help/how-to-use-this-site
~Because we couldn't go for three~
The link is not active, but the spreadsheet is pretty interesting. Don't know why there are so many downvotes so far.
Have an upvote on me for the effort involved.
On edit: I now see the active link and the rest of the text.
I published the post before I should have and it was not ready for primetime so I got a couple of early downvotes. Hoping that people take a look again. Thanks for the well-wishes!
i upvoted your post. i wasn't aware of what you were trying to do, so i pasted the link that has helped me oh so many times.
~Because we couldn't go for three~
Edit : I think I pasted this link in the wrong post ><
Mea Culpa
~Because we couldn't go for three~
I appreciate your help. No worries!
Can you elaborate on just who that might be? I'm not convinced Michigan has that QB....
ASSUMING that Morris develops the consistency and accuracy he needs to be successful I think he can definitely be that guy. But he's not there yet.
Nice work! Interesting how the data shows some postition groups with more overall talent but the other team having the top rated player.
Michigans lack of playmakers and their Borges really concern me. It's going to be like watching some of the Tressel offenses. How the hell are they going to move the ball against us!?!
I feel sorry for them....ok wait I don't.
"There is a force that makes us all brothers, no one goes his way alone, all that we send into the life of others comes back into our own." -WWH
Indeed. Data can be presented in lots of different ways - I also considering posting the median as well as developing a formula to leave off extreme outliers at each position.
Hard to leave out the outliers in this set of data because of their potential value. If we are trying to get a gauge of actual overall talent as a group, then a Derrick Green (outlier) could have much more of an effect on the entire data pool. Example: If all the other running backs in Michigan's pool didn't play because Green won the Heisman, then the group as a whole would still score very high. I'm saying that if one player is successful and the rest aren't, that doesn't necessarily mean the group isn't successful.
"There is a force that makes us all brothers, no one goes his way alone, all that we send into the life of others comes back into our own." -WWH
You're absolutely right.
I heard multiple analyst saying that the top SEC schools worry most about the all important defensive line, then skill positions etc...offensive line was down the list a little. I think Urban might feel the same
As we've seen from last year, the O-line doesn't have to be a group of highly touted guys, it's more of a team within a team , and if they mesh well and play as one they can be awesome. Last years O-linemen weren't anywhere near as heralded as the "Block O" group from a few years ago but they were coached better and played better as a team.
Not worried about our line OR concerned about michigans or any teams o-line...especially with our D / D-lineman.
D. Anthony
I think this is right. Urban seems keyed in on DL, playmakers and the secondary.
Although he has already said that 2014 will focus on the OL, which makes sense given the numbers there right now and the Senior losses after 2013. UM looks to be developing a running game that will crush the rest of the B1G and then run into a brick wall during the final week of the season.
Alabama disagrees. O-line is one of the most important positions on the field.
Its interesting comparing scout rankings but you have to remember rankings can be thrown aside if the recruits don't fit the system. For example Dontre Wilson would thrive much better under our spread offense than scUMs prostyle. Trying to be as unbiased as possible and throwing all my hatred for that school aside heres where they did well:
Derek Green is a perfect fit for their system and should thrive there
They are killing the offensive line recruiting which should help their prostyle offense
Pipkins, Poggi, Bolden, Ross, and Thomas are solid gets for them on D and should be very good players there in the future.
The fate of these 2 classes lies in the development of Shane Morris who IMO is currently the most overrated QB on all the recruiting sites. He has a good arm and has the potential to be a great QB, but after watching him play in several games (not throwing at a combine) he is no where near his ranking and should not have had an under armor AA invite. If Hoke can develop him they should have a solid offense and thrive the next few years
I 100% agree. But they will struggle mightily against OSU's offense if Morris can't provide a credible threat to the secondary.
I think you meant to say OSUs defense but yes completely agree. Green won't last when there's 8 grown ass men like Shazier, Schutt, Spence, Washington & Bosa in the box while Apple, Burrows, Bell, Thompson, and possible Conley (whichever side of the ball they put him on) are locking it down in the secondary
Yes, defense is what I meant!
getting mono and missing a good chunk of his senior season didn't help at all, but yes, he has some things to work on - accuracy, decision making, ect. He has the skills and talent to be great, just needs some development. Luckily, with Garnder back for at least 1 more season (hopefully 2), he should be able to red shirt and improve before being thrown into the starting role.
Not here to troll...Go Blue
Yes, footwork and moving through progressions and scanning the right side of the field. His system in HS was geared toward the run and frankly just not that talented. I think he'll be just fine after working with the coaching staff for a year or two.
Those who stay will be CHAMPIONS!
~Bo Schembechler
If you look at both classes position by position Michigan has absolutely no playmakers. They took like 10 O-linemen and a QB in Shane Morris who was terrible on AA game. Their linemen were terrible as well. Derrick green is a big back that doesn't have any break away speed. I just don't see what all the hype is about with their class.
Seems like you're wearing some very strong Scarlett colored glasses here.
Thanks for posting this and for the work that you put in. Excellent analysis.
"It all goes so fast, and character makes the difference when it's close."
Jesse Owens
Very interesting! Thanks
You're welcome Mr. Tits.
Nice job! Thanks for all the hard work! I like how you did the past couple of classes. Both schools seem to be recruiting the exact type of players they need to fit their systems best. Green behind their oline kind of scares me , but then I remember how good our dline should be and that they have Shane, who may make our whole defense even better!
Hey this was good man, thank you for the read and the effort put into it!
BammBamm is my dog, Riley is my 4 yr old daughter, and THE Ohio state Buckeyes complete the three most sacred loves I cherish
Glad it's been helpful for everyone! Will post more on this later!
As an analyst (my day-job) who works with Excel and numbers ALL DAY, I appreciate the analysis. Nice work and bravo on the conclusions.
Urban is rebuilding the defense from 2002 and I love it.
Keep Calm and Ignore the Trolls.
Thanks for the compliments!!
Great stuff Brian, thanks. Like Buddha I spend most of my day staring at spreadsheets and drawing conclusions from what I see, so it's nice to have someone else do it for me. And I appreciate the effort and thoughtfulness.
Man, they have surely loaded up on the OL. Should be some classic "wars in the trenches" between us and them in coming years.
Appreciate the kind words!!
I was unable to view the spreadsheet, but based on your summary, it seems pretty accurate.
2014 will add some new kinks, for sure. I think Michigan improves at DE with Malik McDowell, Lawrence Marshall, Da'Shawn Hand, and Bryan Mone (recently named UofM his favorite) all being real possibilities (obviously Hand is going to be the most difficult to reel in). I think the secondary improves as well with really good shots with Parrker Westphal and D'Andre Payne, and in the top groups of Peppers and Nick Watkins. Already with Ferns at LB, Michigan probably takes another 4-star LB, but no one elite.
On offense, I think Michigan takes 4 Olinemen, with Mason Cole, Tommy Doles, Alex Bars looking pretty promising at the moment. Apparently done at QB with Speight. Probably 1 RB, and sitting decent with Mikale Wilbon who has been quiet. TE, not much noise but have a small chance with Tyler Luatua. Wide Receiver will, again, be a challenge. Michigan is looking good for some 4 star guys in Artavis Scott (hopefully a package deal with Cole), Drake Harris (Michigan was #2 when he committed to MSU, originally, but now OSU, Bama and others are showing a lot of interest), and Corey Holmes (3/4 Star).
I think OSU kills Michigan in LBs this year and makes up a lot of ground on the offensive line. I think Michigan has a very good chance to pull close to even on DLine and Secondary, and a good shot of adding some highly touted playmakers, but unlikely elite guys on offense. In other words, I think both team gets better where they need to with both teams balancing out a bit more. It will be fun!
Those who stay will be CHAMPIONS!
~Bo Schembechler
Thanks for the input, Hail. Always glad to hear from the other side on these things.
Would love to see a blog/forum post from you on the possibilities for UM in the 2014 class - Should be a fascinating battle for the next few years, particularly in the trenches!
I could probably do that at some point when things get a little clearer. It will probably get some of the "This is an OSU blog, why is there a post about Michigan." But it seems like those get a lot of response. Besides, what else are we going to do until spring practice starts?
Those who stay will be CHAMPIONS!
~Bo Schembechler
You really think Hoke wil try and sign 4 more OL in 2014? Interesting, as that would put them at 15 in 3 years I believe, which to me seems a little excessive.
Nice breakdown though Hail, I for one wouldn't mind you making a post about UM's 2014 targets, though I know I can find it elsewhere if you don't feel comfortable making one on an OSU blog haha. What I find really interesting is how many of the same defensive players both OSU and UM are going after and many of them have both in their top group (see Mcdowell, Marshall, Peppers, Westphal, Payne, Hand to an extent).
Also appears that unlike 2013, OSU and UM may be competing for several same skill position guys (Scott, Harris, and I'd imagine a RB or 2, maybe a TE later down the road). OL looks like it will be another dogfight, hopefully Urban can win this round as Hoke dominated the OL recruiting last year.
2014 should be a fun and interesting year to follow recruiting
Sorry Urban, Woody is still my favorite
UM got the beef (OL) and OSU got the speed on both side offense and defense (Marshal...wilson...Clark....Mitchell..)