Was curious how high school rankings translate to college. 2012 1st team All AmericanTeam. Rivals Ratings below. - all players ranked. no walk-ons. only 4 five star. Appears you can build a great team with 4's and 3's.
QUARTERBACK —
Johnny Manziel, 3 star
RUNNING BACKS —
Montee Ball 4 star
Ka'Deem Carey 4 star
TACKLES — Luke Joeckel, 4 star
Taylor Lewan, 4 star
GUARDS —
Chance Warmack 3 star
Jonathan Cooper 3 star
CENTER —
Barrett Jones 4 star
TIGHT END —
Zach Ertz 3 star
RECEIVERS —
Marqise Lee 4 star
Terrance Williams 2 star
ALL-PURPOSE PLAYER —
Tavon Austin 4 stars
KICKER —
Cairo Santos 2 stars
DEFENSE
ENDS —
Jadeveon Clowney 5 star
Bjoern Werner 3 star
TACKLES —
Star Lotulelei 3 star
Will Sutton 3 star
LINEBACKERS —
Manti Te'o 5 star
Jarvis Jones 4 star
C.J. Mosley. 4 star
CORNERBACKS —
Dee Milliner 5 star
Jordan Poyer 2 Star
SAFETIES —
Phillip Thomas 2 star
Matt Elam 5 star
PUNTER —
Ryan Allen ?
Quick observations about the list:
Most of these guys were still very heavily recruited. And in come cases the athletes put up big numbers due in part to the system that they brought in to play.
Also, it seems that highly rated players pan out more on the defensive side of the ball. When you consider the amount of 5 stars there are per class (around 30) compared to the thousands os players in each class that are not, it is pretty revealing to have 4 former 5* among the "best 11 defensive players in the nation"
I would bet that the ratio of 5* that pan out is much higher than 4* players that do. Same with comparing 4* players to 3* athletes.
Thanks for the post. It really got my wheels spinning...
Nice post. Dr. Saturday does a pretty good analysis of this over the past several years. I've pasted his charts below:
Thanks for posting this. Important to remember the size of the pool in the ever-present your-five-star-vs-my-three-star debate.
Class of 2008
those are very illuminating. did not know how small the 5 pool was relative to 4 star...
Thank you for this, I always hate having to say it... glad someone posted the data.
I disagree. Mainly because there are over 1,000 players ranked as 4 and three star recruits. So of course some of them will pan out a lot more than others.
I like to believe that my best hits border on felonious assault.
JACK TATUM
i agree. much higher hit rate with 5's. one drawback with 5's, though, is the higher chance of getting a player with a fake dead girl friend....
nice post, this really does support me opinion about incoming players: while talent is important, coaching and motivation in the players is a much better indicator of success.
I remember looking at the star rankings of our players vs those from Miami (FL) when we played during JTs last year. They had the better rankings on scout, but not my much. Still, with the continuity in our coaching our players really dominated that game other than travis benjamin's kick returns.