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What if the Passing Offense Is Half as Good as the Passing Defense in '17?

+9 HS
buckeye phi's picture
March 3, 2017 at 1:19pm
107 Comments

The question came to me, recently.  In yet another debate over the pros and cons regarding JT Barret's play - and how much of the struggles in the passing offense in 2016 were "on him" - I noticed some fans were quick to point to "his" W-L record when defending him. 

While it's true - generally, the quarterback's play can influence a game one way or another more than any other single position - it is by no means an absolute determiner of the outcome.  It is still a team sport.  And sometimes, a team is led by it's defense more than it's offense - just like Ohio State was last year. 

Looking at the two losses - and the handful of nail-biters the Buckeyes won, I began to wonder how the season might have turned out if Ohio State's defense had not been one of the nation's top units  

More specifically, what if the passing defense had been as awful as the passing offense was last season?  Everything else being equal - the Buckeye's would have been lucky to finish the season 8-5 - with additional losses to Wisconsin, Michigan State and Michigan.  Toss in another close one - the Northwestern game - and it's 7-6.  Yikes!

Yes.  Things could have turned out very differently if the passing defense had been ranked a lowly 81st (where OSU ended the season in passing offense) - as opposed to where they actually finished - as the 7th highest ranked unit.  Clearly, in that case, Ohio State would not have finished with the nation's 3rd ranked scoring defense.  It's not a stretch to suggest every one of those games would have been losses. 

That's according to the NCAA's raw numbers - but use whatever stats you'd like. That isn't really the point.  Even the good ol' eyeball test would indicate the Buckeyes' passing defense was one of college football's best - while the passing offense was one of the worst.  That shouldn't be news to anyone reading this. 

But I don't want this to be just another blame JT - or blame the Slobs - or blame the wide receivers - or even a blame Warinner and Beck thing.  Let's look at it from another point of view.  Moving forward - what if the new offensive brain trust can produce a passing offense that is not a liability? 

What if the passing offense is half as good as the passing defense this year?  I'm suggesting "half as good" instead of "as good" for a couple of reasons.  First of all, a jump from 81st to 7th would be expecting too much for any new coaching staff.  By definition, they're new, of course - plus they'll be dealing with a lot of the same players. 

Secondly, I'm not expecting this year's passing defense to drop off much - if at all.  One might ask - "How can that be?  Ohio State is replacing 3/4s of it's secondary this year." 

There are a few factors.  The defensive front seven is returning almost every starter.  Two deep along the defensive line.  The recruiting for the defensive backfield has been extraordinary.  And admittedly, I've been spoiled by coaches Greg Schiano (safeties) and Kerry Coombes (corners).  I now expect them to produce an elite secondary - no matter how many starters they lost from the year before.  Call me crazy. 

So - using last season's numbers - a jump from 81st to the mid 40s (for example) would mean an increase of roughly 40 yards passing per game.  In 2016 that would have been 255 yards per game - which not too coincidentally fits in almost perfectly with Head Coach, Urban Meyer's stated goal of 250 ypg passing (and 250 ypg rushng). 

If everything else doesn't change too much (which, of course, is a huge "if" in college football parlance), that kind of improvement could easily be the difference between another season in which the offense stalls against decent defenses - and one in which everything keeps right on rolling - regardless.  

If new Offensive Coordinator Kevin Wilson and new Quarterbacks Coach Ryan Day are as skilled as Buckeyes everywhere are hoping they are - it might not be terribly unreasonable to think it could happen -

 

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