Who has the best chance to win in the playoffs? Today ESPN compiled statistical information on the four CFP contenders on that very question. Their rankings are summarized side by side in the table below:
rankings | Alabama | Clemson | ohio state | washington |
---|---|---|---|---|
Strength of record | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Game control | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
Offensive efficiency | 23 | 10 | 16 | 2 |
Defensive efficiency | 1 | 9 | 2 | 6 |
Special-teams efficiency | 39 | 73 | 66 | 41 |
Wins against Top 25 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Losses | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
FPI rank | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
FPI rating | 31.7 | 25.9 | 28.1 | 26.1 |
Chance to win semi-final | 68% | 45% | 55% | 32% |
Chance to win title | 42% | 19% | 26% | 13% |
It's interesting to note that the offensive efficiency ranking of #4 Washington at 2nd is significantly higher than for the other three teams, and also that the defensive efficiency of Alabama and Ohio State are ranked 1st and 2nd respectively.
Personally I'm surprised that Alabama only has a 2 to 1 probability of winning against Washington. I would have thought it higher. Clemson has almost an even chance against Ohio State. What do you think?
The complete ESPN article is at this link:
http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/126952/a-stats-based-guide-...