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Who Will Win the CFP Playoffs? The Telling Stats

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SilverHaven's picture
December 5, 2016 at 7:54am
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Who has the best chance to win in the playoffs?  Today ESPN compiled statistical information on the four CFP contenders on that very question.  Their rankings are summarized side by side in the table below:

rankings Alabama Clemson ohio state washington
Strength of record 1 3 2 4
Game control 1 2 5 3
Offensive efficiency 23 10 16 2
Defensive efficiency 1 9 2 6
Special-teams efficiency 39 73 66 41
Wins against Top 25 5 4 3 3
Losses 0 1 1 1
FPI rank 1 5 2 4
FPI rating 31.7 25.9 28.1 26.1
Chance to win semi-final 68% 45% 55% 32%
Chance to win title 42% 19% 26% 13%

It's interesting to note that the offensive efficiency ranking of #4 Washington at 2nd is significantly higher than for the other three teams, and also that the defensive efficiency of Alabama and Ohio State are ranked 1st and 2nd respectively.

Personally I'm surprised that Alabama only has a 2 to 1 probability of winning against Washington.  I would have thought it higher.  Clemson has almost an even chance against Ohio State. What do you think?

The complete ESPN article is at this link:
http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/126952/a-stats-based-guide-...

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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