If OSU and PSU win out, there are only two things that need to happen for the Buckeyes to make the CFP, maybe only one. First, Wisconsin needs to win the B1GCG. It will be harder for the committee to leave out the Buckeyes if they've beaten the conference champs on their home field. Second, and more importantly, Washington needs to lose one more game. If they do, I think the Pac 12 is out of the playoff, joining the Big 12 on the sidelines. That means only two slots are filled for sure by conference champions, SEC (Alabama) and ACC (Clemson or Louisville). Throw the B1G champ in there, and there is still room for one more team. Who will fill it?
Well, here are the candidates for the fourth spot IF Washington loses, listed in order of likelihood as determined by me:
1) 11-1 Ohio State. Great resume. Great brand. Likely to have road wins over the B1G and Big 12 champs. Won the damn thing in '14 last time people weren't sure if they should make it.
2) 11-1 WVU. People, including myself just above, have counted out the Big 12 for a while but WVU is its best chance to make the CFP by closing out with a win over the resurgent Sooners.
3) 10-2 Oklahoma. Hard to make the playoffs with two losses, but the B1G champ looks likely to have two losses as well, so why not the Big 12, especially since both those losses came early in the season? Also, the name brand doesn't hurt the Sooners.
4) 10-2 Colorado. Seems unlikely, but if Washington stumbles, this is the Pac 12 team with the best path to the playoff. Most recent loss was on the road to a suddenly hot USC team, the other on the road to a highly ranked Michigan team where they played the second half without their starting QB. They also have a better name brand than WSU. I put them at four because three-loss USC will not make the CFP regardless of how "hot" they are, or how shiny their helmets.
5) 10-2 Washington State. To put it bluntly, the Cougars aren't making the playoffs. I put them on this list just to emphasize how few candidates there really are to get in ahead of OSU.
6) 11-1 Louisville. The only way Louisville wins the ACC is if Clemson loses another game, and a two-loss non-conference champion Clemson has no chance of making the CFP. So, what about a one-loss non-conference champ Louisville? Also no chance. Their argument would be the same as the Buckeyes but with the lack of "signature wins" and without the name brand and recent track record of actually winning the CFP.
That's it folks, or at least I can't think of any other teams with a shot. Doesn't look hopeless at all to me.
Note to Mods: I started this as a post in another thread, but it seemed too long, and perhaps the ranking aspect was worthy of its own thread. Please nuke if you disagree.
