Ohio State Football Forum

Ohio State Football Forum

Ohio State football fan talk.

Realistc Expectations for Offensive Balance in '16

+1 HS
buckeye phi's picture
March 19, 2016 at 6:43pm
37 Comments

As a bit of an off-shoot to a recent 11W article calling for more offensive diversity next season. It might be interesting to review what the numbers actually were over the last few years – and then project what could reasonably be expected in '16.

According to ncaa statistics, here are Ohio State's average rushing and passing yards per game over the last three seasons:

2013 - 308.6 ypg rushing and 203.3 ypg passing

2014 - 264.5 ypg rushing and 247.1 ypg passing

2015 - 245.2 ypg rushing and 188.8 ypg passing

Obviously, 2015 was a down year offensively in a variety of ways – not simply in terms of balance. All of the numbers were down. However, as mentioned by Eric Seger in the article, the coaches are well aware of the need to fix some things with the offense this season – beginning with more “diversity”.

Looking at the passing yardage from last season, that would seem to be the most obvious area to address first. It might also be the easiest thing to fix – in spite of the talent at wide receiver from last year's squad that's departing for the NFL.

Even with those players, Ohio State ranked a lowly 100th in passing offense last season. It's not at all unreasonable to think the Buckeyes will generate more than 189 passing yards per game in '16. After all, that's not a very high bar to clear. The real question is – how many more yards might be realistically expected?

The importance of the return of a healthy JT Barrett at quarterback cannot be emphasized enough. This will be his fourth year in Meyer's system. The coaches should be able to rely upon him to handle a great deal more complexity in his role. (To a degree, the same could really be said of Pat Elflein at center, by the way)

A play in which Barrett might have tucked and run after his second read last year – could result in a huge play after he makes a third or even fourth read this year, for instance. JT's decision making has always been one of his strengths – but it should be even better in '16. The added confidence that comes from knowing exactly what he's doing should help to improve his accuracy as well.

Plus, in an effort to make sure he stays healthy – he probably won't be called upon to run the ball as frequently this season. That should contribute to a more balanced attack, also.

Assuming Noah Brown and Corey Smith are fully recovered in time – along with Parris Campbell, there will actually be a little bit of experience returning at wide receiver. Considering the receivers who left, the situation could actually be much worse. Recruiting at wide receiver has been excellent as well. There's a lot of talent waiting in the wings.

With both Curtis Samuel and Dontre Wilson returning, the H-back position will be particularly deep – and experienced. Plus, Marcus Baugh saw a lot of playing time as a back-up and in two-tight end sets last year. Jake Hausmann might be a good prediction for the true freshman to have the greatest impact in '16, as well.

The real question may be if the offensive line (with three new starters) will be able to give JT the time he'll need to distribute the ball effectively. Assuming they can – it may not be unreasonable to think an offense more closely resembling that of 2014 might materialize.

Whether it winds up being “running back by committee”, as some are suggesting. Or if somebody eventually comes forth as an undeniable work-horse kind of back (cough – Mike Weber - cough) – Urban Meyer's offenses always pile up a lot of yards at that position. The rushing numbers should remain fairly solid – no matter what.

Of course, the pace of play will be a factor this season, too. Both Urban Meyer and Ed Warinner have been talking about how much more up-tempo the offense will be in '16 than it was through most of '15. Picking up where they left off after dominating a couple of pretty good defenses in the final two games last season.

Barring another uncharacteristically mistake-filled, discombobulated stretch like last year's - more plays per game could reasonably be expected to translate to more yards per game this year.

Would it be unrealistic in 2016 to anticipate an offense generating – say – 260 yards per game rushing – and 250 yards per game passing? Perhaps, not. That's 510 total yards per game. The offense averaged nearly 512 total yards per game in both '13 and '14.

That may seem “overly optimistic” to some – in spite of the program's recent history of highly successful offenses. More positive types might suggest that 2015 was really the outlier. A return to the kind of offensive production witnessed in '13 and '14 may seem quite realistic to them. In fact, considering the anticipated increased pace of play, those projections might actually look rather low to some.

The schedule as a whole looks tougher in '16 - but, on the average, the defenses for those teams might not be much better - if at all. Ohio State faced some fairly stout defenses in '15 – especially, in the last several games.

Incidentally, if it was another coach besides Urban Meyer – at another school besides Ohio State - - a prediction of more passing than rushing yards might not be out of the question. However, under the circumstances, the very thought is almost laughable. Almost.

In any case, with all the new faces on the defensive side (especially, with two new starters at safety), the offense may actually need to return to, at least, the '13 and '14 levels.

Care to make a projection? How productive – and balanced might the 2016 offense really be?

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

View 37 Comments