As many followers of the sport are quick to acknowledge, more often than not college football games are won by the teams that are most successful running the ball - and stopping their opponent's running game. This season's Fiesta Bowl may end up being a particularly stark example of that widely held axiom.
For those who have been living under a rock for the last week, Ohio State will be playing the game without both Adolphus Washington and Tommy Schutt - the pair of defensive tackles who have started nearly every game this season. (Schutt also missed an earlier game due to injury).
Surely, the All American, Washington, will be missed the most - but Schutt was starting for a reason. Obviously, the coaches must have felt Schutt was the team's best option at the all-important "1 technique" position. However, it should also be noted, Schutt's play this season was sporadic at best - and he was actually more the first man in a three-way rotation than he was a true starter, in the traditional sense of the term.
In any case, the 1 technique spot was probably the weakest link in Ohio State's, otherwise, stellar defense this season. Clearly, any kind of a hit there is potentially a problem - especially with a new starter right next-door at the 3 technique position - which had been a definite area of strength up to now with Washington.
There's been some talk of simply going to the much heralded "Rushmen" package* on every down - as opposed to mainly on obvious passing downs, as it's been used so far. An increased use of the Rushmen may indeed be in the cards - but there will still be many plays where the defensive front will require more bulk than that.
Notre Dame's offensive line averages nearly 315lbs. As great as he is, at 275lbs, Joey Bosa may not be the wisest choice at defensive tackle in a short yardage situation (besides that not necessarily being the best use of his talents).
Also, keep in mind that a big part of the reason the Rushmen package was so effective was due to Washington's play at 1 - not just Bosa's play at 3.
There will be many situations that will still require Bosa at end - and a couple of 300 pounders at tackle. For those plays, it'll probably be a rotation of Joel Hale and Michael Hill at 1 - and Donovan Munger at 3. How they play will be especially crucial to the outcome of this game.
While there's been a lot of talk about Notre Dame's fine wide receiver, William Fuller - and justifiably so - the Irish running game actually poses the greater threat - particularly under the circumstances.
NCAA statistics** bear this out - and while the stats certainly aren't the end-all-be-all indicator of how things really are - they do tend to be more reliable by the end of the season. Plus, the numbers align themselves well with the proverbial "eyeball test" in this instance, as well
Notre Dame's 37th ranked passing offense will be going up against Ohio State's 12th ranked passing defense. Whereas, Notre Dame's 25th ranked rushing offense will be facing the Buckeyes' 22nd ranked rushing defense - without Adolphus Washington. While Washington will certainly be missed in either phase of the game, the better match-up for the Irish seems rather obvious.
However, in his last opportunity to play in the scarlet and gray, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see a tremendous, emotional performance out of Joel Hale. That would also help to take some of the heat off (first time starter) Donovan Munger, who will benefit from the presence of Joey Bosa to his other side, as well.
Plus, there will almost certainly be an increased use of the aforementioned Rushmen package. It's just not going to be an every-down kind of thing. The definition of what qualifies as a Rushmen situation may simply be expanded somewhat for this game.
If the rushing defense up the gut can hold up well enough - every other match-up appears to favor the Buckeyes. Ohio State is too fast at end, linebacker and defensive back for a team to have consistent success running wide. And the pass defense has already faced better passing offenses than Notre Dame's on a few occasions and come out on top.
On the other side of the ball, things may match-up even better for Ohio State, by the way. Notre Dame's 65th ranked rushing defense could be in for a long day trying to stop Ohio State's 12th ranked rushing offense. An offense that was just hitting its stride in its most recent game -
* The "Rushmen" package refers to a line-up in which the 1 technique tackle would come out of the game and another defensive end (usually Sam Hubbard) would come in. Washington would then move to the vacated 1 technique position - Bosa would move inside to Washington's 3 technique spot - and Hubbard would take over for Bosa at SDE.
