Having perused the statistics regularly - and after watching a fair amount of Michigan State football leading up to this week's match-up, perhaps this might be a good time to share some anticipated keys to the game. For the most part, the "eye-ball tests" are confirmed by the statistics, when it comes to these teams.
In the big picture (total offense and total defense), Ohio State holds an advantage over Michigan State on both sides of the ball. When they have the ball, it'll be MSU's 61st-ranked (nationally) offense verses Ohio State's 9th ranked defense. The Spartans are averaging 406.3 yards per game, while the Buckeye's are only giving up 298.4ypg (according to ncaa statistics).
The Spartans' running game has been abysmal for the most part this season - averaging only 154.2ypg - and ranking 92nd. Ohio State has been yeilding an average of 126.8. Obviously, this is a phase of the game that should favor the Buckeyes heavily. A fairly one-dimensional MSU offense could be even more so vs OSU's 24th ranked rushing defense.
The passing game is, of course, another story. The Connor Cook-led Spartans are ranked 37th nationally (3rd in the B1G) - averaging 253.9ypg. However, the Buckeyes should also hold an edge defending the pass.
The Silver Bulletts are currently ranked 8th nationally in pass defense - giving up only 171.6ypg. It's strength against strength to a degree - but it appears the Buckeyes are clearly even stronger in this regard as well. There are also questions about Cook's health that could dramatically affect the outcome.
A particularly critical key to this game could really hinge more on what happens when the Buckeyes have the ball. It'll be another strength vs strength scenario when the Ohio State is trying to run the ball, because they'll be running against the nation's 18th ranked rushing defense (5th in the B1G). MSU is only giving up 121ypg.
The Buckeyes' 11th ranked rushing attack has been gaining an average of 244.8ypg on the ground. Something's gotta give.
A distinct dichotomy presents itself with the Spartans pass defense. Michigan State has an excellent front seven. They have a fairly impressive 29 sacks on the season (only one behind Ohio State's total, incidentally). Yet, MSU is only ranked 86th nationally in pass defense - yielding 243ypg.
There is an explanation for that, though. The Spartans defensive backfield has been bitten by the injury bug this year. In fact, they're starting two freshmen at safety.
The Buckeyes are ranked a lowly 85th in passing offense (208.5ypg) - so it may be tempting to say this is a match-up of weakness vs weakness. But this will only be JT Barrett's third start this season - and those starts were interrupted by a suspension and a bye week. It's reasonable to assume Ohio State's passing game may be poised to improve dramatically - especially against a very suspect secondary.
Perhaps the single biggest key to this game will be whether the Slobs (with a little help from Nick and/or Zeke from time to time) can give JT enough time to exploit the Spartans' most significant weakness. Michael Thomas, Jalin Marshall, Braxton Miller, et al, should be able to get open with relative ease.
Ohio State will have a few other minor advantages - especially on special teams - such as net punting, etc. UFM is a master at gaining those "hidden yards". But that match-up with the MSU defensive front when the Buckeyes are in pass-protection is probably going to be the single most important determining factor -
